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Round 7, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R7, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 13 May 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: well, yes: the Crows won by more than 6 goals – but only just; so it is a small “win”, but nothing too great; but I totally got it wrong with the Pies; they put in a shocker – and it is pointed out that teams tend to lose after playing Carlton; the Cats won like a half decent team that has just snapped a losing streak with an unimpressive win; maybe that was true – if you count the modest win over the Suns as a type of loss – but that is stretching tings a bit.

This week, the focus is on the 2 teams that played in Perth last weekend – the Dockers and Bombers.

Fremantle has been up for a long time.  Their recent late-game fade-outs are a clear sign that a loss is coming soon.  It could be this week – providing that the Dogs haven’t been totally flattened by the loss to the Dees.

It is expected that the Dogs will bounce back okay from that defeat.  Teams which lose like that often do well early the following week and then finish better (and win).

The Dockers would normally be expected to lead and to run out of puff in the final term.

These two trend lines contradict each other; maybe the “Dogs start well and hold on better” is more likely.

In any case, the Dockers are WAY too heavily favoured.  I expect the Dogs to either win outright of stay within 3 goals of Fremantle.  If the Dockers lead clearly, look for the Dogs to finish strongly.

The Bombers are in the news because of the ASADA/WADA stuff.  And that way have some effect; but the bigger drama will be 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Perth last week.

Generally teams playing back east after a Perth game and a 6 day break tend to struggle a bit.  But the Dons have the added problem of 2 x 6 day breaks.

This will be a huge problem.  Realising this, you should expect to see them roll the dice early and play risky footy in the hope of gaining a sizeable lead.

But the Roos should be aware – and will feel that they can overrun them late if they stay in touch.

 

The Bombers ONE chance would appear to me to be a minimum 3 goals up at half time.  I expect the Roos to be able to match or beat with Essendon in the first half and to run away with things in the second half.  I tip the Roos by more than 4 goals – so long as they don’t get blown away early.