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Round 7, 2015

Round 7, 2015

SuperTipping results for R6: 4 winners for a total of 36 + 2 bonus pts = 38 and and ranking dropped from 1,921 to 2,902 out of 46,002 tipsters (top 6% – very good)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 1 out of 3 (Dogs and Blues losing; Crows winning).  Streak stopped again and back to 0. Ranking slipped from 6300 to 6800 and in top 36% (mediocre)

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 for the week (With the Giants winning; but Blues and Dogs losing) and 5 out of 16 for the year = a result of a dreadful 31% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).

Tipped Carlton in R6 and bombed out.  The smarter tip would have been Adelaide, but the Blues had to be tipped sometime.  From now on, those still in the comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gantlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R7: there looks to be 7 hot favourites, with the exceptions being the Roos and Pies as slight favourites. The Crows would appear to be the best certs for the week, while the Dogs would be some chance to achieve a huge upset

 

Round 7, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

ESS

NMFC

Dcklnds

NMFC

22

HIGH

A small chance

2

ADEL

STK

Adel

ADEL

53

HIGH

No hope

3

HAW

MELB

MCG

HAW

45

HIGH

No hope

4

CARL

GWS

Dcklnds

GWS

18

EXTREME

Some small hope

5

SYD

GEEL

ANZ

SYD

15

HIGH

Some small hope

6

WCE

GCS

Subi

WCE

44

HIGH

No hope

7

WBD

FREO

Dcklnds

FREO

7

HIGH

A huge upset chance

8

RICH

COLL

MCG

COLL

15

HIGH

Some small hope

9

BRIS

PORT

Gabba

PORT

19

HIGH

Some small hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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1 ESS          vs.      NMFC         Docklands   Fri, 15 May 7:50 pm

The Roos to do it

Please refer to Penny’s comments on the game at: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-7-2015-penny

There are a couple of things that the Bombers need to deal with this week.  First is the ASADA / WADA never-ending story. This news cannot be good for the players, but it may not necessarily cause them to play badly.  It is assessed as only a slight negative in terms of this week’s game.

Another thing is the 6 day break after playing in Perth.  In this case, we have the unusual situation where Essendon has 2 x 6 day breaks in a row and a trip to Pert in the middle.

Teams that come back from Perth on a 6 day break have underperformed by 20 points on average. If we remove the Collingwood result from 2014 (when they were decimated by injuries), then the average under-performance is still 14.

And not getting Chappy back hurts the Dons.  The late comeback last week by the Bombers is being more attributed to the Dockers easing off than the Bombers surging home (when the game was all shot to bits).

Jake Carlisle has apparently been injured and is tipped by some to be an exclusion from the selected side.  Shaun McKernan looks to be the best match from the emergencies.  Watch the news Friday.

The Roos are back from Tassie on a 6 day break, but have a 7 day break prior to that.

The Roos by 22 points and almost certs.  Please note that they will be marked as certs because of the website’s streak being at 0.  It is not recommended that you tip them as certs if you are on a run >5

Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 22 points and they won by 11.  The analysis was fairly good, but the Dons surprised on their ability to fight on when up against it.  Maybe the Roos kept Essendon in it by missing some easy shots.  The fact that the Roos won the SC score 1776 to 1527 suggests that they could’ve won by more.

The 11 point win confirms that the “cert” tip was a bit risky – sometimes the risks work  out well – and this was such an occasion.

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2 ADEL      vs.      STK  ADEL Oval          Sat, 16 May 1:15 pm

Weather: dry; light winds
The Crows are the certs of the week

The Crows did what they needed to do in order to knock over the Suns away last weekend.  That was a good “recovery” from an ordinary looking Showdown.  But they had injury problems on Showdown day.

They look to be getting back to some sort of reasonable form – despite missing a few players and having a longer injury list than the Saints.

Given the recent shocker vs the Dogs and the Showdown loss, it is difficult to see the Crows taking this too easily.  And the Saints winning last weekend helps to keep the Adelaide boys on the job.

Teams that come from “nowhere” to win games generally underperform the following week.  It is expected that the Saints will struggle to reproduce the good form of 2H last week.

Crows by 53 points and certs of the week

Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 53 points and they won by 46. Analysis was just fair – despite being close.  Everything went wrong for the Saints on the day.  They lost Leigh Montagna and Jarryn Geary prior to the game and then both Nick Riewoldt and Jack Lonie early on.

The Crows only lost Brodie Smith.  And the Saints were a mathematical chance in 4Q before the Crows snared the last 3 goals.

The cert tip was still correct, but the Saints were a bit underestimated.

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3 HAW        vs.      MELB         MCG Sat, 16 May 2:10 pm

Weather: dry; moderate winds
The Hawks to bounce back

This is an odd week (round 7), so the Hawks should be up and about!  So far, they are WLWLWL and their performance vs expectation is UP DOWN UP DOWN UP DOWN.

Nonetheless, this is not guaranteed and the Hawks need to snap out of this pattern pretty soon – or else they are going  to struggle to make the top 4; more importantly, the top 2 (with the Dockers looking likely to finish 1 or 2 – so no east coast team wants to travel to Perth for week 1 of finals).

It seems that teams wearing uniforms very unlike their normal strips often underperform.  That happened with the “white” Hawks last weekend.

The Dees were okay early on in the year, but have played 2 top flag hopes in the Dockers and Swans (without much success) and now play the Hawks.

It’s hard to see them mustering the necessary extra form to win this one.  However, they may see the absence of Lou Codge and Jordan Lewis as a one-off chance to beat the reigning premiers.

But the Hawks will surely win leading into the GF replay.

The Hawks by 45 points and certs

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 45 points and they won by 105. Analysis wasn’t that great in this instance.  What actually happened was that the Dees played Freo and got towelled up.  They then were “up” for the Swans game – but lost by 38 points.  It should have been logical that they were going to be on a downer when they played the third flag hope in a row.  And they were on a BIG downer.

Also, the Hawks had to show that they were potent without Jordan Lewis and Lou Codge.  Looks like they succeeded in this – even though the opposition didn’t offer much resistance.

The “certs” call was correct.

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4 CARL      vs.      GWS Docklands   Sat, 16 May 4:35 pm

The Giants should do it

Right now, we are in “don’t tip Carlton” mode and will stay there until they show something.  That “something” could occur this week but, when teams head south in the way that the Blues have done recently, it is generally smart to avoid tipping them.

Having said that, their team looks a bit better with Chris Yarran, Simon White, Troy Menzel and Andrew Carrazzo all in.  Apart from Yarran, the rest are all coming back from injury – so it is possible that they may not all play at their top.

The dropping off 6 players (+ one “out” injured – Andrew Walker) looks more like a statement than the right decision.  Nick Graham (31 SC points after coming on at the last break) looks particularly stiff.  So, despite the “ins” looking good, the sheer volume of changes is a negative.

Being underdogs may help the Blues a bit.

The Giants (with zero changes) should probably win – if they can maintain their form of last weekend.  Their form after big upset wins has been mixed, but much better than that of the Suns in similar situations.

The biggest hope for the Blues – in their current lull – is that the Giants are really off their game.

The Giants by 18 points, but not certs.  The uncertainty about both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 18 points and they won by 78.  Analysis was a fair way off – and the Giants won by 10:18 – probably should have been more.

The Blues needed 2 things to go right for them to have a chance:
A: the Giants to put in a bad one after an emotional victory over the Hawks in R6; and
B: for there to be genuine team unity at the Blues
BONG BONG; “NO” on both counts.  The Herald Sun notes that Dennis Armfield ran straight past a Giants player who had the ball because Armfield was following his own man.  There were other examples of selfishness, incompetence and laziness given.  These may all be a result of the stress the players are under and this is not meant to demean the character of any of them.  Given other circumstances, they will perform more admirably.

There is talk about a Blues board meeting this week.  Watch the news on this one, but it was noted that the loss to Brisbane last weekend was a “sack the coach” effort.

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5 SYD         vs.      GEEL         ANZ Stadium       Sat, 16 May 7:20 pm

Weather: shower or 2; moderate wind abating
The Swans to win this one

The Swans got back on track last weekend vs the Dees after a shock loss to the Dogs.

The Swans lost 2H last week 6 goals to 5 against a much lower ranked opponent (albeit blowing chances in the process).  The Dogs were outscored 12 goals to 3, so it appears that the tough and wet game the previous week Swans vs Dogs was very taxing.

Dan Hannebery and Jake Lloyd are expected to play despite suffering minor injuries last week.

The Cats may have got the Pies at a good time (the week after Collingwood were “lulled” by the Blues).  And also they did well when they needed to – in 1Q.  Had they not done that, they may have been overrun (with the Cats coming off shorter breaks).

Joel Selwood had the big bump on his hand last week – “will still be a bit puffy, but he will play” – say the Cats.  Andrew Mackie is out for another week.

But the Swans aren’t certs; Swans by 15 points.

Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 15 points and they won by 43.  This tip look okay at 3QT, but the Swans powered away in 4Q.  The analysis was a bit off here because of the disparity in the injury lists.  This should have yielded a tip that was more bullish on the Swans.  The Cats were too depleted to have a great chance; then, when Tom Hawkins was a late withdrawal it got harder.  Mitch “love to have a beer with” Duncan went off in 3Q and that was the end of it for the Cats.  That was the last straw.  The scores were level approx when he was subbed off.

It is interesting to note that the Swans and Dogs (who slogged it out in the wet 2 weeks ago and both underperformed in last week) both exceed expectations this weekend.

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6 WCE        vs.      GCS  Subi  Sat, 16 May 5:40 pm

Weather: heavy rain easing; very windy
The Eagles are certs

The Suns have too many injuries to be a realistic chance.

Of the inclusions to the Suns team, only Harley Bennell (40 touches in NEAFL) and Danny Stanley (38 in NEAFL) stood out; the other three are just being promoted due to a shortage of numbers. The Gold Coast website notes: “With Thompson joining the suspended Steven May on the sidelines, the defensive stocks are particularly bare and inexperienced. Henry Schade has played just two games, whilst another man in Jack Leslie who also has only two games of senior experience might come in to the side.

This is bad news for the GCs defence (and good for Josh Kennedy and friends).

Dion Prestia was concussed last week and may still need to pass a test. Tom Lynch may also be in some doubt with a calf injury.  Both are listed as better than 50/50 by the Suns.  And Sean Lemmens may be another in doubt.  For those who can wait, check out who flies over.

People east of the Nullarbor may not realise, but the WA teams are 1 and 2 at present (also with the best 2 percentages).

The Eagles are still missing Matt Rosa and X-man Ellis.   Jeremy McGovern &

Josh Kennedy are both listed as test, but expected to play.  They excelled last week, but may have been helped by playing Port a week after the Showdown.  But they will be far to good for the depleted Suns in the west.

We might get very heavy rain for this game, so the start will be critical.

Eagles by 44 points and certs

Post Match Review: The Eagles were tipped by 44 points and they won by 92.  Analysis was a fair way off, but a few things need to be noted.  Firstly, in wet conditions comebacks are rare.  So, once the Eagles got a break, they were always likely to go away with a big win.  Next is that the Suns lost 2 players before the game: Luke Russell and Tom Lynch – replaced by Mitch Hallahan and Greg Broughton.  It was not so much that the “ins” didn’t give the Suns something – 110 & 48 SC points respectively; it was more the disruption to the team – it meant even more changes.  Once the 2 late changes were made (even though Hallahan was originally dropped), the cause went from hopeless to doubly hopeless for the Suns.

As such, the tip wasn’t really that bad.  And the Eagles were correctly listed as certs.

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7 WBD        vs.      FREO         Docklands   Sun, 17 May 1:10 pm

The Dockers, but a danger game

Please refer to Penny’s comments on the game at: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-7-2015-penny

The Dockers are due for a loss, as Penny points out.

The Dogs look better this week, with Matthew Boyd, Mitch Wallis and Lin Jong all coming into the 18 for the Dogs.

Please also see the Swans preview above and the fact that the Swans and Dogs both struggled in 2H the week after their epic struggle.

It is likely that the Dogs will be much better this weekend.

The Dockers, however, are undefeated and play very well at Docklands.  So they will be tipped.  But it is not the week to tip them as certs.

The Dogs, having blown a huge lead, are likely to outperform expectations.  Teams who have followed the Dogs’ pattern in the past have generally outperformed expectations by about 2 goals – and usually start very well.

Given that the Dockers are the best 1H team in the league at present, the opening term will be interesting.

Dockers by 7 points and nowhere near certs.

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 7 points and they won by 13.  What a pity that last goal was kicked by the Pav – it ruined a perfect tip.  Nonetheless, this was as close to satisfied as one can be.  The Dos did, indeed, outperform expectations.  And the Dockers were due for a loss (maybe still are due), but had enough class to fight their way through it.

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8 RICH       vs.      COLL         MCG Sun, 17 May 3:20 pm

Weather: dry; moderate winds
The Pies – without huge confidence

The Tigers risk being 2-8 at the bye with this game followed by Port away, Essendon (chance for a win) and Dockers away.  That being the case, the question remains – can they play at their top?

David Astbury going out is a surprise – not considering recent form, but because he was so highly touted at the start of the season.  Ben Griffiths still needs to pass a concussion test before he plays (Ty Vickery or Liam McBean on the 7 man bench – one would probably come in to replace him).  And Brett (they don’t go too well when he is out) Deledio is no cert to play – according to the coach.

One problem that they have had is an unsettled side.  There has been 3+ changes each week since R2.  Following losses against bogey sides Geelong and North, they will be hoping to bounce back against the Pies.

But Collingwood also have a 7 game winning streak against them.  Another negative is that all 6 “ins” for Richmond are on the 7 man bench at this stage. So it doesn’t look like they are improving in any significant way.

The big minus for the Pies is a longer injury / unavailability list.  But they will still be tipped, because they had a FNS (Friday Night Shocker) last weekend – and should be raring to go this week.  However, it would have been better for the Pies to play on Saturday.

Collingwood by 15 points; not certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 15 points but the Tigers won by 5.  Analysis was a bit off and maybe the Magpie injury list was not fully taken into account.

Despite the coach saying that Deledio was a risk – he played and scored 133 SC points.  With Cotchin getting 162 SC, the Tigers were always going to be hard to beat.

There was also the “absolute desperation” factor for the Tigers – with their season in danger of slipping away.  It is still a challenge – with tough away game to come in the next 3 weeks.

The Tigers lost Shane Edwards before the game; but then this was evened up by the Pies losing Alan “feelin groovy” Toovey very early on.

In the end, it was a “bob of the head” finish, but the Tigers were somewhat underestimated.

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9 BRIS        vs.      PORT         Gabba         Sun, 17 May 4:40 pm

Weather: possible shower; breezy; humidity moderate
Port, but not overly keen

Last week, there was talk about how Port often underperform after a Showdown.  When this happens (both times in 2011, 2012 and 2014 plus this time in 2015 – but neither time in 2013), they also tended to underperform the following week as well.  From 2011 onwards, the 6 occurrences resulted in (2 weeks after Showdown and after under-performing the week after the Showdown) 1 win and 5 losses.  The win was an upset win and they were favourites in 2 of the 5 losses.  On average, they underperformed by 26 points, although the average under-performance is only 7 points if their horror year 2011 results are removed.

The next thing to consider is the Lions breaking their duck for 2015 after 5 losses. Teams that break a run of 4 losses or more with a small victory tend to do well the following week.  For underdogs breaking a losing streak and winning by less than 25 points, they perform 17 points better than average.  But if you take those teams who won a big underdogs (20 point underdogs or more), then they only exceed expectations by about a goal.

And the last dozen or so teams that have played Carlton have lost the following week.

There is still no Daniel Merrett for the Lions.  Also, still no Ollie Wines for Port.

It’s hard to see Port getting rolled, but they will not be tipped as certs; and the experts are too keen on them.

Port by 19 points

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 16 points but the Lions won by 37 points.  Analysis was okay, but just a bit wimpy.  There were signs that the Lions were going to outperform expectations, but they were somewhat underestimated.

Helping the Lions out was that the humidity got up to 84 in the second half; but they virtually had it won by then anyway.

The big positive here is that many tipped Port as an absolute cert – with most tipping a 5 goal win

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Best cert: the Crows (they won, but played in patches), then Eagles (romped home), Hawks (never in doubt) and, if you must, Roos (they won)

Best Outsider:  the Dogs are a much better chance than most people expect (gave it a good shot); the Lions (big upset win), Cats (blown away late) and Blues (awful) all have some chance, but not overly keen on them

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Roos by more than 15 points (last goal of the game made it only 11 points – Lindsay Thomas gets the blame); the Crows by more than 35 points (eventually got there); the Dogs to win or lose by less than 22 points (managed to fight back after betting blown away early); the Pies to win by more than 8 points (didn’t even win).

Happy tipping!  This should be more “normal” than R6 with 5 upsets, but some outsiders have chances to win (but we had to wait for game 8 for a minor upset and game 9 for a major one)