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Round 8-13, 2016

Round 8-13, 2016

Round 8, 2016 (all times are AET) PAGE DOWN FOR R9

Tipping results for R7:  Supertipping: 8 out of 9 (very good) for a total of 49 and ranking improved from 1,944 to 980 out of 43,399 tipsters (top 2%)

Streak: 4/4 – with Swans winning easily; streak back up to 4, but ranked still waay down at 13,556th still in bottom 57% (went very conservative and most favourites won)

GAUNTLET: alive (the Swans won comfortably); now down from 8,862 to 6,417 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: nothing done lat week, so still at 7 out of 16 = 43% (= poor)

 

 

Early thoughts for R8: the certs are Roos, Hawks, Giants, with Swans, Port and Eagles to be tipped; The Dogs face a danger game against the Dees, but may be tipped; the Lions are the early tip over the Pies; the Crows and Cats cannot be split at this stage in a different type of “Danger game”

 

Round 8, 2016

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 ADEL GEEL ADEL GEEL  5  HIGH  No real outsider here
2 ESS NMFC DCKLNDS  NMFC  47  HIGH  No hope
3 HAW FREO LNCSTN  HAW  33  HIGH  No hope
4 GWS GCS HMBSH  GWS  70  HIGH  No hope
5 BRIS COLL GABBA  BRIS  8  EXTREME  A big chance (Pies outsiders)
6 RICH SYD MCG  SYD  15  HIGH  A tiny chance
7 CARL PORT DCKLNDS  PORT  12  EXTREME  A big chance
8 MELB WBD MCG  MELB  5  EXTREME  Tipped to win (subject to change)
9 WCE STK SUBI  WCE  28  HIGH  A tiny chance

 

Adelaide v Geelong at Adelaide Oval Friday May 13 (7.50pm)
This is a “Danger” game; but how do superstars tend to go in their first game against their old team? Looking at Buddy and Gazza.
Buddy played for the Swans against the Hawks in R8, 2014 and the Swans won at home in an upset; 99 SC points for Buddy;  the Suns were rank outsiders when they hosted Geelong in R10, 2011; the result was about according to expectations – with Gazza scoring 106 SC points; there will be much more focus on Dangerfield in the media than from the 2 teams; from an outside analysis viewpoint (and using a small sample), Danger will be either a positive for Geelong or neutral.

Walker is reported to have a foot injury and is struggling a bit for the Crows.  The guys on SEN 4pm Thursday thought that the Cats would be able to defend well against the Crows (who have been a high risk / high reward type team).

It is hard to pick this one; the Crows have had gallant losses in Vic against likely finalists in the Roos, Hawks & Dogs
Cats by 5 points in a tough one to pick
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 5 points and they won by 26; analysis was good enough; of interest was that Smith had a shocker for the Crows (19 SC points) and coach Scott said in his presser that the Crows do well when he is getting the ball at half back; Dangerfield did well (as expected) and Walker was just fair as he battles through a niggle

 

 

Essendon v North Melbourne at Docklands Saturday May 14 (1.45pm)
The Roos are due for a bit of a downer – and it may indeed come this week; but it surely wouldn’t be enough to become a loss; their slowdown last week late (going from 26 pts up in 4Q to level late in the game) was a combination of injuries and being up for a long time; and the Saints are a fair team as well; the Dons are really trying hard, but are struggling; they lost McKernan last week; so Leuenberger looks like mainly rucking alone against Goldstein (although {Sam}Michael is an emergency for the Dons); this game is all about the margin; Roos certs and to win by 47 points
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 47 points and they won by 14; analysis was a fair way off but “cert” call was justified – just – they never really looked like losing; the Roos team was also their weakest line-up after losing both Wells & Henry Missy Higgins, plus resting Firrito; coach Scott said Firrito was rested after playing back to back games at the Docklands and with a 6 day break from last Sunday; still, the Roos are showing signs of wear after being up for a long time 

 

 

Hawthorn v Fremantle at Aurora Stadium  Saturday May 14 (2.10pm)
The Dockers were half decent for the past two weeks and get a small lucky break here; Rioli is out due to family reasons; the forecast is for strong winds and rain in Tassie; and while Freo have never won down there (including a couple of beltings), Cyril’s absence is a blessing; expect the Dockers to be competitive here – especially if they can kick with the wind early.

The Hawks get back Mitchell and Frawley (handy inclusions) and should be able to win another game without Hodge; speaking of key players, Freo have lost Fyfe for the year now (correct decision); it seems that this news boosted peoples confidence in the Hawks this week; but Fyfe was never gong to play anyway; the opposite effect might happen – the Dockers might lift now knowing that they have to do it without him; there is one only reason not to tip the Hawks as total certs – the fact that they played on Friday last week and had an easy win (after a big fight for 3 and a bit quarters); this will be ignored and the Hawks just barely tipped as certs – by 33 points
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 33 points and they won by 41; analysis was reasonable; in fact, a case could be made for the Dockers getting closer than they did; they lost Sheridan (ill) and replaced by Mzungu (the cheer squad added the crepe paper for Tendai’s 100th 90 minutes prior to the game – they had already made it weeks ago in preparation); the call of Hawks as certs was correct – despite looking a little doubtful at half time; Mitchell scored a modest 85 SC points on his return from a minor injury; there were injuries to both sides on the day (mostly minor), but the Dockers fared the worst out of this with their Hill brother finished in 3Q.  the Hawks also had first use of the breeze; it came in handy in 3Q when they made their decisive break.

 

 

GWS Giants v Gold Coast Suns at Homebush  Saturday May 14 (4.35pm)
The Giants are definitely going to romp in here; the Suns already had Hallahan, O’Meara, Prestia, Rick-a-telly and Swallow out of the midfield; they now lose Rosa and Sexton, while Gazza is NQR; Currie and Cameron also go out injured; in comes Nicholls and Matera – both of whom had modest performances in the NEAFL last week.  The Suns are in a deep hole due to injuries and the year is pretty much shot now.

The Giants will win big here unless they are due for a downer; but, rather, it appears that they are riding the wave; Davis is out injured but Mohr is a handy replacement for him; will Coniglio the tagger go to Gaza or Hall? Maybe Hall! Giants by 71 points and certs of the week.
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 71 points and they won by 91; analysis was very good enough in a game where the Suns were expected to get within 10 goals; coach Eade revealed in his presser that Miller and
Prestia “probably shouldn’t have played” – that’s what happens often when injuries reach a critical mass (see Penny’s writing below).  The Giants were truly the certs of the week!

Brisbane Lions v Collingwood at Gabba  Saturday May 14 (7.25pm)
This is an EXTREME variance game – with doubts on both teams; the Lions were awful after QT last week but had some excuses; Robinson may have been NQR after a head knock the previous week; Merrett was a late withdrawal and Rockliff sent Fantasy players off for counselling when he got injured early; Merrett is back and Taylor comes back after a freshen up (dropped but Lions had a NEAFL bye); their form against the Swans 2 weeks ago will be easily good enough to win this one; but will they produce it? Christensen copped a knock last week and may be in a small amount of doubt.

The Pies get back Adams, Sinclair and Varcoe and will be a big chance if all 3 are fully fit (Adams may be the most doubtful & the Pies have an open training on Friday in QLD – but probably just a light session and Adams could still be withdrawn even if he trains on Friday); the Pies have really had the heat put on them after losing last week to the Blues in an upset; they had won their last 7 straight against the Blues prior to that meeting; there is a chance that they could bounce back strongly here, but they don’t have a SBS (settled back six) – with Reid out and Brown out of form and also injured.

The doubts on both teams makes this an EXTREME variance game; the Pies probably need to lead early in this game in order to win; there may be increasing humidity late in the contest – which will help Brisbane; Lions by 8 points
Post match review: Lions were tipped by 8 points but the Pies won by 78; analysis was miles off; the wrong team was tipped and the “miss” was 86 points; but there were some positives; it was stated that the Pies needed to lead early to win; they certainly did that – being up a 61 to nothing at one stage; the humidity went higher and higher as the game went on; it may have helped had the scores been close – but the Lions never game themselves a sniff; the INS for the Lions (Merrett and Taylor) both failed to get to 40 SC points & Christensen scored 65 SC points (lower than normal and he had copped a knock in R7); Green was a late in for McStay and scored 32 SC; and Dayne Beams’ knee gave out during the game; the Lions were so bad that they were beaten by 78 points even though 2 of the Pies’ INS scored lowly (Sinclair 37 and Varcoe 45 – with Adams the other IN doing well at 111); it is suspected that something went wrong among the playing group at the Lions – illness, disunity etc; but nothing is known from the outside;  the other positive was that the game was listed as EXTREME variance; this was EXTREMELY extreme!

Richmond v Sydney Swans at MCG  Saturday May 14 (7.25pm)
The Swans powered away from Essendon late last week; the Bombers had a lot of players scoring almost no DT points in 4Q; so it is a little hard to assess this win; they came off a game against the Lions at the Gabba the previous week where they were lucky to hang on; they also may have one eye on the Hawks Friday night game the following week; ideally, they will have this one won half way through the last term and be able to manage players; but this may be a slight danger game if they look ahead too far.

The Tigers are in a big slump; when teams get overrun like the Tigers did last week (after seemingly having a chance to win); it is a bad sign – but much more so early in the season; this time they also get Rance and Grimes back so sure up the defence; but Cotchin (wisely) will wait another week; the Tigers have a tiny chance, but there is a question mark over their confidence levels;  Swans by 15 points but not certs.

{the Friday withdrawals of Kennedy (Syd) & Houli (Rich) will not cause any change to the tip}
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 15 points but the Tigers won by 1; analysis was so-so; it’s never good to tip a loser – even if they only got up with a kick after the siren (they had the ball in the right hands with Sam Lloyd slotting the difficult shot); one positive was NOT to tip the Swans as certs – many would have fallen for this trap; this turned out to be an EXTREME variance game – 

 

 

Carlton v Port Adelaide at Docklands Sunday May 15 (1.10pm)
The Blues have won 3 in a row and Port their last 2; but the sides they have beaten currently sit 18th, 17th and 14th (the teams the the Blues beat) and 15th & 16th (Port’s wins); it’s not exactly inspiring stuff, but Blues fans haven’t won this many on the trot for a few decades (or so it seems); see the Lions preview above for their troubles last week; the good news for Port is that it was able to really cash in when a team is down and out (for 2 weeks in a row, really) – and the coach reckons that this has helped confidence; this game will test that theory; note that their Gray coming in is Sam Gray – with Robbie Gray a week or so away yet.

The Blues beat the Pies after Colingwood had 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Perth (+ injuries galore); to quote Blues fan David Blom, Bolton “has got them chasing, tackling and putting in effort for each other”.  They may be able to carry this on to another win; but the new-found vigour and vim could possibly be fragile. Walker scored low numbers last week and may possible improve.

Doubts on both sides make this an EXTREME variance game; Port by 12 points, but anything could happen
Post match review: Port was tipped by 12 points but the Blues won by 2; analysis was not that great; Walker did improve for the Blues compared to the previous week; it was a heroic win by the Blues after losing Casboult early on and also having Bryne and Kreuzer cop injuries; it was one that got away for the Power – with the last 3 goals going to the Blues and just getting over the line; of interest is that the Blues won the SC scores 1885 to 1415 – remarkable for a team that was almost 3 goals down late in the game

 

 

Melbourne v Western Bulldogs at MCG Sunday May 15 (3.20pm)
The Dees powered away from the Suns last weekend after trailing at QT; but the Suns lost Rosa and Sexton early, while Miller battled on despite an ankle injury & Harbrow scored -1 DT points in 4Q; given all that, it is difficult to assess the value of Melbourne’s win; the positive is that they bounced back well from their disappointing effort against the Saints the previous week; and they are on an upward trajectory; a key in this game will be whether the Dees can capitalise on Gawn’s ruckwork; if so, a win is likely

The Dogs have troubles down back – losing yet another defender – this time Adams; they did extremely well to draw away late from the Crows last week.  There is a chance that they could be flat after this big performance; this is more likely if the Crows also look stale on Friday.

Of interest is that Craig Jennings has gone from opposition analyst for the Dogs to the same job at the Dees; he should have a good feel for the Dogs game plan and how to combat it!

The doubts on how both teams will come up after last week makes this an EXTREME variance game; Dees in an upset by 5 points
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 5 points but the Dogs won by 32; analysis was very poor; Max Gawn had a poor performance in a game in which he was expected to dominate; coach Beveridge talked about the bad loss to Melbourne last year (even though they belted the Dees in the return match); looks like this match was marked as critical for the Dogs; well, it kept the Dees at bay and made the Dogs’ spot in the 8 safer

 

West Coast Eagles v St Kilda at Subiaco Oval Sunday May 15 (4.40pm)
The Eagles lost badly on the road and will be glad to get back to Subi; but it is a no-win situation for them (figuratively); if they lose, it is a disaster; if they win, they will still have the”travel monkey” on their backs (according to the scribes); they should have enough to win this one at home; but they won’t be tipped as certs, because they seem a bit under where they were last year; and the Saints have improved; Yeo should be improved by his first up poor numbers game after illness.

The Saints looked gallant in defeat last week against a Roos team with a couple of injuries; nonetheless, they were good enough to push a top side; this will be a challenge; and Armitage may be in some doubt after a knock last week; but the fact that they have scored convincing wins over the Pies and Dees this year (and almost beat Hawthorn) gives them a slim chance here.

Eagles by 28 points but not quite certs
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 28 points and they won by 103; analysis was poor; the Saints may have been flat after the huge effort against the Roos the previous Sunday; coach Richardson didn’t see it coming; what was surprising was that the Saints seemed to never fire a shot at all; Sinclair (Jack, for the Saints) was a late withdrawal the previous week and scored low numbers upon return; Membrey (who was doing well enough to keep McCartin out of the team) had a shocker with 25 SC points; the Eagles won the SC score 1884 to 1419 – not normally enough to secure a 100+ point win

 

Certs: Giants (never in doubt), then Roos (never in doubt, but got the wobbles late)  and Hawks (going conservatively here as there could be a big upset) (looked good after HT)

 

Gauntlet: Giants (never in doubt) revised from original, with following weeks to be
ME    GE    AD    HA   FR   RI   WC   ST   NO   BR   PO   CO  GC and omitting Essendon

 

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Giants to win by more than 58 points (never in doubt); Dockers to win or to lose by less than 42 points (just barely got there); Dees to win or to lose by less than 11 points (never looked likely); Saints to win or to lose by less than 40 points(gone at QT)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R8, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 13 May 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was way off and never looked likely; in retrospect, this was too risky a tip – with the Pies close to the edge on injuries and on 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Perth; I ignored the flashing red lights!!!

This week, there a lot of interesting games but, like last week, every one has a risk involved; I would normally tip the Roos (who have been up for a long time) to underperform, but the Dons are in uncharted waters with their list, so I will leave this one; the games to select will relate back to the Freo / GWS game last weekend.

I am most keen on the Giants to steamroll the Suns; the main reason is that the Suns have gone over the edge in terms of injuries & will be un-competitive against quality sides for a little while; they are currently missing 8 players who go thru the midfield plus a couple of others; and they are playing blokes who probably need a rest; they have been dropping off in the latter part of games (often caused by game day injuries, admittedly) and are likely to go winless to their round 13 bye (after this weekend, they face Crows, Eagles away, Swans & Tigers away).  The Suns have 4 out injured plus 2 other changes; their list is so depleted that they are bringing back NEAFL players who aren’t going all that well.

There is some risk in tipping the Giants to win big; firstly, they really need just the W this week – even though percentage might be appealing; despite fears from the Mexicans that GWS may win multiple flags in a row, they are yet to play 1 finals game – and will be concentrating on getting to 12 or whatever wins they need

The other risk is that they have been up for a while and may be due for a downer; this is one way of viewing it, but I tend to regard last week as a positive week-after match following their demolition of the Hawks in round 6; that being the case, they still appear to be riding the wave of momentum – and will be better this week than last.

The experts are tipping a 9 – 10 goal win; I expect them to win by over 12 goals.

The Dockers play the Hawks in Tassie and have a terrible record there; as longggey mentioned above, it will be windy and probably wet; the Hawks may suffer from a relaxed weekend after a Friday night win; I would be ore sure of this if it were a Sunday game; they are tipped to win by over 7 goals in poor conditions.

The Dockers look to have possibly turned the corner last weekend and will use this game to build form for when they Richmond the following week.  I expect the Dockers to over-achieve here – to win (unlikely) or to lose by less than 6 goals (more likely)

 

Round 9, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R8:  Supertipping: 5 out of 9 (very poor) for a total of 54 and ranking dropped from 980 to 1,938 out of 43,601 tipsters (top 4%)

Streak: 3/3 – with Roos, Hawks and Giants all winning; streak back up to 7; ranking improved from 13,556th to 9,216 (top 37% (some tipsters came unstuck this week with Swans and Port – it was a good week to go conservative)

GAUNTLET: alive (the Giants won comfortably); now down from 6,417 to 5,434 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 2/4 (with the Giants winning big enough and the Dockers barely holding on to get close enough – 2 wins; but then Dees lost by too much – as did the Saints), so still at 9 out of 20 = 45% (= poor)

Early thoughts for R9: the certs appear to be the Crows, Dees and Saints; the Hawks, Cats, Eagles, Roos, Dockers and Giants may be the tips in the other games; but these are definitely subject to change

Round 9, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FRIDAY)

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 HAW SYD MCG HAW 6 EXTREME A definite chance
2 COLL GEEL MCG GEEL 20 HIGH Some chance
3 GCS ADEL GLD CST ADEL 64 HIGH No hope
4 PORT WCE ADEL WCE 8 EXTREME A definite chance
5 FREO RICH SUBI FREO 9 EXTREME No outsider here
6 NMFC CARL DCKLNDS NMFC 42 HIGH No hope
7 MELB BRIS MCG MELB 37 HIGH No hope
8 GWS WBD HMBSH GWS 24 HIGH A slim chance
9 STK ESS DCKLNDS STK 22/38sun HIGH A small chance

 

 

 

Hawthorn v Sydney Swans at MCG Friday May 20 (7.50pm)
The backdrop to this game is the sad news about Jarryd Roughead – expected to be back from a knee injury soon, but now indefinitely waylaid with a serious melanoma injury; thoughts and prayers for him and his family from longggey.com for a complete recovery.

While tipping a winner pales into insignificance with this news, it does throw up queries on how the Hawks will be emotionally as they approach this game; they could play inspired footy for Roughy – or be totally flattened; the way coach Clarkson is talking suggests that the team needs help just to focus this week (compare last year – albeit different circumstance – when the Crows / Carts game was called off).

Cyril is back and maybe the break has done him good (replaced up north by nephew Daniel from the Tigers); Mitchell has been just average recently, but could improve second up from a break.

The Swans looked like they were cruising to a win, but lost it in the last minute in Tiger-like fashion, ironically.  This will provide extra motivation for them this week; but they are on the road for the second week running AND on a 6 day break; then they play another Friday night game next week against the Roos; this is a pivotal time for them; Kennedy is back (and may have been rested last week for the “easier” game against Richmond).  While this travel is a minus, each trip was an easy trip to Melbourne; and they would have accounted for this in their preparation.  They looked shattered to lose a game at the MCG – as if they were going to use this game as a confidence builder for the Hawthorn contest.

The Hawks are not going as well as in 2015, but are still very dangerous; and this game is sandwiched between easy looking games against Freo in Tassie and Brisbane away; so they can really focus on being UP for this one.

But the key unknown is the mental state of the Hawthorn team; that makes it an EXTREME variance game; Hawks by 6 points
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 6 points but the Swans won by 14; analysis was not that great; the wrong team was tipped; the problem inthe analysis was that the Roughie effect was not given enough weight and / or the Swans repeat travel effect was given too much weight; the Hawks played like a team that was struggling emotionally – while trying to show that it was not the case; they looked good for a while (including 1Q when they couldn’t score early); then dropped off; then came again and dropped off; the EXTREME variance call was probably right – but marginal – given that the Swans were 5 goals up and almost lost the lead and then got up again by 21 points; all the Swans INS (Kennedy, McGlynn and Rohan) all did pretty well; also, the ability of side that virtually threw games away to bounce back the following week helped the Swans

 

 

 

 

Collingwood v Geelong at MCG Saturday May 21 (1.45pm)
The Pies are getting closer to healthy now – with Goldsack and Williams both coming back through the VFL this week; Brown is still out and Cloke is “languaging n the reserves” (as Mal Prop would say); Reid has been named and appears likely to play, but maybe a slight concern on him

Varcoe came back from a hammie and, according to collingwoodbugle, finished the game on the bench; then he was listed as hamstring, test on the 19 May injury update on the AFL website; was this just left there from last week? or perhaps a slight doubt on him?  No problem with taking him off late vs the Lions when 10+ goals in front; but put a ? on him for this week.

The most recent match-up between these 2 results in a big upset win by the Pies in late 2015 – which snuffed out any tiny hope the Cats had of making the finals; there has been quite a few 6 goal plus results in these encounters; put these two facts together and you can make a case for the Cats winning big; but the experts seem to have already factored this in – with most tipping a 5 goal plus win.  But this snippet may also mean that the game trend more likely is for the Cats to be very good early (opposite to some of their recent game trends they were behind in QT in 2 of their wins and only a point up in another)

For the Cats, Lonergan is a test for concussion but appears likely to be ok; Cats by 20 points, but not certs; and this is borderline on whether to call it EXTREME variance; let’s leave it as HIGH.
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 20 points but the Pies won by 24; analysis was not that great, but better than some; many had this game as certain win for the Cats; this website would’ve saved tipsters and GAUNTLET players from making that mistake; The Pies jumped the Cats early and it would seem that the Cats were really UP BIG TIME in R8 against the Crows on a Friday night and were a bit too comfortable with life after a nice long weekend off; the Pies missed 4 shots to the Cats 11, but they still deserved to win despite this stat; Cat fans may think otherwise – given that they got back to within 9 points mid last term, but they didn’t really deserve to win; the Pies were also undervalued during the run of poor form; and their win against the Lions may have been also downplayed due to how bad the Lions looked; maybe more credit should have been given to the Pies; reades of Penny’s columns will know that a half decent team on a long losing run that snaps it with a big win an tend to underperform next up; the Paies had actually only lost 2 in a row; the way the media told the story, it seemed like about 10 straight! 

 

Gold Coast Suns v Adelaide at GLD CST Saturday May 21(2.10pm)
See Penny’s analysis of this game below.
The Suns are in a world of pain with injuries at present; now they lose Gazza, Hall, Miller and Saad to injury – plus drop 2 others; it all adds up to the Crows being the certs of the week.

The Crows have rested Matt Crouch and will use this game to build for a big home game against the Giants.  Crows by 64 points and CERTS of the WEEK.

And now also Leslie out for the Suns – “oh my goodness” as Tony Greig would have said!
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 64 points and they won by 75; analysis was pretty good here; the Suns are just too injured – and now lost two more (Ah Chee & McPherson); but they actually showed a bit of ticker if fighting things out (when a 100 point loss looked possible); the Crows were always in control, but failed to land the killer blow late; but they would be happy to come away with a big win; not mch else to say except that the Crows were correctly labelled as CERTS of the WEEK

 

Port Adelaide v West Coast Eagles at Adelaide Oval Saturday May 21 (4.35pm)
This game has EXTREME variance written all over it; firstly, the Eagles have been smashed away from home (but against teams going better than Port in 2016 – Hawks, Swans & Cats); Penny notes that teams “throwing away a game” often outperform expectations the following week; and this may indeed happen; but Port have HUGE troubles in the ruck and now come up against Nicnat & Lycett.  They are also missing talls Schulz and 200cm junior Frampton

The Eagles will eventually win on the road and this is the type of game that they need to win in order to set themselves up for a chance at top 4.  They give the impression that they may be ready for the road challenge now; but the confidence level in them is low and they will be tipped with some reservation by 8 points

Friday update – with Josh Kennedy likely to stay home for the birth of baby number 1, this gives Port a definite chance
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 8 points and they won by 8 exactly; analysis was pretty good here – perfect numerically; but the EXTREME variance call was incorrect; early in the week, Port was tipped, so good to change on Friday; the presser for the Eagles was interesting; Simpson said that the ruck dominance was a plus early but worked against them in the 2H (their own fault – not adjusting)

 

Fremantle v Richmond at Subiaco Oval Saturday May 21 (7.40pm)
Please note that the forecast is for strong winds and 10-20mm of rain on the day – mostly AM and early PM
There are mixed signals for Richmond; they snapped a 6 game losing streak by a narrow margin; this is a very good sign; but, against that, is the fact that they did it with a (very good) kick after the siren against the Swans; that often leads to a downer the following week; their opponents this week are the Dockers – who are 0-8, so it’s hard to get too excited about them either; they haven’t really excelled after returning from Tassie either – although the full 7 day break helps them this time; and they get back the well rested Pav; Sheridan comes back in after making the trip down south east and then falling ill.  The rain may, perhaps, work in the favour of the home team; but good WA drainage means that the ground might be okay come game time – watch the weather!

The AFL website notes that the Tigers took all 3 emergencies (Broad, Markov & Townsend) to Perth; unusual! Maybe watch for late changes!

If the Tigers can gain momentum from their thrilling win, then they could easily win well; their record in recent time in WA is pretty good; and they get Cotchin back!  But the doubt about the emotional drain after the last kick win will mean that the Dockers are tipped in an EXTREME variance game – by 9 points
Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 9 points but the Tigers won by 38; analysis was awful; things to note: the Dockers again underpeformed after Tassie; the Tigers had 2 conflicting technical trends; as a “kick after the siren to win” team, they were expected to lose the following week; but also, as a team coming off a long losing stretch with a narrow win, they would have been expected to do very well in the first half and then win by 6-10 goals above expectations; they just missed on this score

 

North Melbourne v Carlton at Docklands Saturday May 21(7.25pm)
This was marked as a big danger game for the Roos; they have been heading towards a loss for a while now; they have thrown away big leads in the past two games (one to almost lose vs Saints and the next to throw away percentage when playing the Bombers); under normal circumstances, there would be serious consideration given to tipping the Blues; but their BMI (Big Man Index) has taken a huge hit this week; they have lost Kreuzer and Casboult to injury and also Jamison (who plays tall-ish) is out; Gorringe comes in off an injury and so does Wood in the VFL; Gorringe has hardly been shooting the lights out in the VFL – with Wood being ahead of him generally; these issues basically kill off any chance that the Blues had; another minus is that the emotional nature of the victory (there was an extra 1% in it for Simpson – 250 games – and Jamison with 150, according to the coach after the game) and kicking the last goal to win may sap the energy of the Blues this week.

The Roos are beginning to lose a few players now – after beginning the year with a pretty clean slate; they are now missing Higgins, Wells, Wood, Jacobs and Wright – plus a few others who are in the mix for senior games; but their big man ascendancy will see them easily account for the Blues; and while this big man advantage could see them romp away late, they have been dropping off late and may do so again – especially if their lead is big.

The Roos were never going to be tipped as certs after their recent fade-outs, but they will now be just tipped as certs – Roos by 42 points and CERTS.
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 42 points and they won by 67; analysis was very good here – despite being 25 points off; most experts were tipping about 30 points only; the reason that most experts were way off was that they underestimated two factors: the big man injuries to the Blues big blokes (the inexperienced – and possibly underdone – Gorringe scored 50 SC points and got 7 hitouts; this compared to 173 SC points for Goldstein and 45 hit-outs); and, secondly, the ability of the Roos to “recover” from the 2H slowdown last week; Weitering’s numbers were low on return from injury, but he was on Petrie and Drew wasn’t influential

 

 

 

Melbourne v Brisbane Lions at MCG  Sunday May 22(1.10pm)
There are a couple of facts which yell out “BEWARE” this week about tipping the Dees; firstly, they are favourites and their record as such if simply awful.  The next thing to note is that the Lions hit rock bottom last week in an abysmal display.  It may be that they come out swinging this time; and one can (as Prince Charles might say) imagine the Dees being a little jittery in a tight finish in this game.  Also, the Lions might get some improvement out of Christensen (who went into last week’s game under a slight injury cloud), Robinson (ditto) and Merrett.

However, they need to get lots out of many to improve enough to be even competitive this week; they go in with a minimum of 6 changes (losing 2 x Beams + 1 x Gardiner to injury) and dropping Green (who maybe came back from injury too early), Paparone and Walker; they have some good INS and the speech of Rhys Mathieson was terrific (easily found on the Lions’ website); Mathieson is only on the 7 man IC bench at present but will presumably get a game – although he doesn’t have appeared to have played since 01 May.

The Dees were given a chance of causing as upset last weekend, but were never in the hunt; important note in Bulldog presser post-match; Beveridge said that the Dees “taught us a bit of a lesson in the corresponding game last year” (39 point win by the Dees who were distinct outsiders – even though they played again later in the year and the Dogs won by 98 points); it looks like the Dogs were really up for this game – mindful of the fact that they have lost several defenders; it was a grinding win by the Dogs.

This little snippet suggests that the Dees will play much better this week as they react to the disappointment of last week.  This fact alone will be enough to tip the Dees as certs – despite how fragile they have been as favourites.

Another reason to doubt a Lion from reversal is whether last week’s effort was an indication that the coach is on the way out; this does not seem to be the case, but another huge loss would bring more scrutiny on Leppitsch; a more likely result is a better effort an an honourable loss of some sort.

Dees by 37 points and CERTS

LATE NEWS FRIDAY: Bewick out for the Lions and Pedersen out for Melbourne
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 37 points and they won by 63; analysis was fair; the positives were picking a winner (that wasn’t too hard) and also (just slightly more challenging) tipping them as CERTS; a curio was Bugg and Stretch sharing the award for possessions with 31 each; Hogan and Harmes scored 5 and 4 goals respectively in good signs for the Dees; Newton was also a late replacement for Tyson; Gawn scored 56 SC points and hos opponent Martin 47 – must be their lowest combined total for the year just about; Mathieson was okay in his game and has been compared to Joel Selwood already for his ability to draw a free kick; the Dees INS performed slightly better than those of the Lions; maybe the volume of changes for the Lions was a bigger negative than originally thought

 

 

GWS Giants v Western Bulldogs at Homebush Sunday May 22 (3.20pm)
Refer to the above comments for the Melbourne game about the Dogs’ motivation for last week & their loss of defenders; they have now lost another defender in Matthew Boyd (who plays across half back mostly these days and directs the traffic – along with Morris – for the young guys); this is a significant out.  They also lose Redpath to suspension; they are getting close to the tipping point for their defence; as such, they are extremely vulnerable this week – maybe the most vulnerable they have been all season.

This fact will mean that the Giants will be tipped with some confidence – but not quite enough to tip them as certs; the reason for the caution is that they have been up for a while and may, perhaps, put in a bad one – as young clubs are apt to do; the signs are not really there, but it is something to be wary of.  The Giants appear to have rested Greene last week and he should be fresh upon return.  They also have the luxury of back to back games at Homebush; it’s the first time this season that they have had consecutive game in Sydney.

Giants by 24 points and almost (but not) certs
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 24 points and they won by 25; analysis was pretty good; the Giants lost 2 early – with Buntine and
Cameron Ling mentioned that Stevens will be better for the run but had a shocker first up from an injury break

 

 

St Kilda v Essendon at Docklands  Sunday May 22 (4.40pm)
The Dons were pretty good late last week – without ever looking like winning; but this was probably helped by the “North due for a loss” effect kicking in; the Essendon players got a standing ovation as they left the ground; this could be a positive, but it could have the reverse effect as well – having them feel that they are going better than they really are.

The Saints were completely wiped last week; it’s about the time of year that lower to middle of the road clubs can lose confidence; if so, then the Dons are a chance of causing an upset.

These two factors above probably hold the key to this game; this was almost listed as an EXTREME variance game but will be labelled HIGH. The Dons are given a very small hope of causing an upset; another small “plus” perhaps is the fact that the Saints beat the Dons by a humiliating 110 points in their last meeting; it could provide extra motivation for the Bombers – at least early on n the game.

Terry Wallace on SEN 3-4pm Friday mentioned that Hickey is unlikely to play; Holmes is in IN on the 7 man bench and Longer is the VFL; watch for the 5.25pm changes Friday; Saints by 22 points and not certs.

Sunday update: Brad Scott’s comments after the game Saturday night vs Blues tends to downplay the real value of the Bombers’ R8 comeback; on that basis, the margin will be amended to 38 points; the Saints will not be labelled certs at this late stage, but it is tempting!
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 22 and then 38 points and they won by 46; analysis was poor Friday and much better Sunday; thanks to Brad Scott for putting the North / Essendon result into perspective; in the end, the Saints should have been labelled as CERTS – ignoring the possibility that they would fall apart after the Eagles debacle; for the Bombers, Bird and Fantasia both copped knocks; so, too Billings and Armitage, but the Bombers were probably worse off in injury terms

 

Certs: Crows (never in doubt), Dees (never in doubt) and then Roos  (never in doubt)

Gauntlet: Dees (never in doubt), with following weeks to be
GE    AD    HA   FR   RI   WC   ST   NO   BR   PO   CO  GC and omitting Essendon
Already used: WB, CA, SY, GW

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Crows to win by more than 59 points (always looked safe); Dockers to win or draw (they are really poor this year!!! Never looked a hope)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R9, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 20 May 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was spot on for the Giants; they had a BIIIIG win over the Suns; and the Dockers looked like being okay, but dropped away in the latter part of the game and just failed to meet my target of <6 goals; overall, I will give myself a tick

This week, there a lot of interesting games but the technical trends are mostly conflicting; for example, the Roos are due for a loss.  But they come up against the Blues – who have a depleted big man line-up; it’s a minus for both sides; so I’ll leave that one alone.  similar problems for Tigers / Freo where Tigers won with a kick after the siren – to make we want to tip against them; but the Dockers have lost 8 on the trot and I want to wait for a win before I jump on board.

I will concentrate on the Suns at home to the Crows; the Suns have made another 4 forced changes this week – further decimating their mids (Ablett, Hall and Miller out; plus the dashing Saad from half back); their record vs the Crows is 0-8 and so they will enter the game with zero confidence; the Crows are masters at smashing teams when they are down and out; the experts have this game at about 9 goals, but I’m tipping the Crows to win by 11 goals plus.

 

 

Round 10, 2016 (all times are AET) 

Tipping results for R9: Supertipping: 6 out of 9 (poor) for a total of 60 and ranking dropped from 1,938 to 2,846 out of 43,601 tipsters (top 7%)

Streak: 3/3 (with Crows, Dees and Roos all winning easily; streak up to 10; ranking improved from 9,216  to 5,018 (top 20% (some tipsters came unstuck this week with the Cats – otherwise, it was an easy week to tip certs)

GAUNTLET: won (with the Dees doing the job easily); now down from 5,434 to 4,185 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 1/2 (with the Crows winning by enough – a win but the Dockers being belted – loss), so at 10 out of 22 = 45% (= poor)

Early thoughts for R10: the certs appear to be the Eagles, Cats, Tigers and Hawks; likely to tip Swans, Saints & Dees; the Crows / Giants and Dogs / Pies games are tough to pick – with slight leaning to Crows and Dogs

 

ROUND 10 (tips added in Wed, subject to change Thursday / Friday)  this is indigenous round; the AFL is well represented by indigenous players when compared to the general population; apologies that the previews will be brief this week

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 SYD NMFC SCG  SYD  11   HIGH   A definite chance
2 BRIS HAW GABBA  HAW  38   HIGH   No hope at all
3 MELB PORT ALICE  MELB  17   HIGH   No outsider in this game
4 STK FREO DCKLNDS  STK  21   HIGH   A small chance
5 ESS RICH MCG  RICH  34   HIGH   No hope at all
6 ADEL GWS ADEL  ADEL  7   EXTREME   No outsider in this game
7 CARL GEEL DCKLNDS  GEEL  45   HIGH   No hope at all
8 COLL WBD MCG  WBD  7   EXTREME   A huge chance
9 WCE GCS SUBI  WCE  80   HIGH   No hope at all

 

 

 

Sydney Swans v North Melbourne at SCG Friday May 27 (7.50pm)
The last time these teams played, the Roos won the semi-final (week 2 of finals) in 2015 at ANZ Stadium; the Swans were all but gone in the finals series last year; this time it is at the SCG; the Swans will be desperate to “atone” for the finals loss; a win for the Roos would give them the plaudits of the unbelieving press; while the Swans are to be tipped here, they seem to be too highly favoured by the experts; the Roos must have a definite chance; Swans by 11 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 11 points and they won by 26; analysis was fair, but the Swans won by more than expected and here they were tipped by less than that (18 pts was the expected result); of interest was that fanfooty noted that Harvey often underperforms on the SCG; he only scored 46 SC points; Goldstein had knee problems and was rested late in the contest; with the extra day’s break, the Swans flew out of the blocks early and the top North SC scprer had 5 Swans players ahead of him

 

 

 

Brisbane Lions v Hawthorn at Gabba Saturday May 28 (1.45pm)
The Lions will struggle again – Rockliff and Bewick not back yet – only Cutler returns; Hawks by 38 points and just CERTS
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 38 points and they won by 48; analysis was quite good; even though the expected margin was 43; the Lions rucks struggled to impact SC (Martin 44 and West 24); Lester copped an injuiry and scored -1 in 4Q when the Hawks ran away with the game; the Hawks lost Spangher early; the Hawks were correctly tipped as CERTS

 

Melbourne v Port Adelaide at TIO Traeger Park, Alice Springs Saturday May 28 (2.10pm)
Please see Penny’s preview below
The Dees are the tip here; while taking some stock of Penny’s preview, it seems that people are still underestimating Melbourne (for their loss to the Dons, maybe?) and also have not taken stock of Port’s big man problems; Howard comes in, but the Dees INS look better – with Jetta and Tyson returning; Port had Boak, Byrne-Jones and Hartlett all sore last week; Dees by 17 points
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 17 points but Port won by 45; analysis was abysmal!  Roos said after the game that the defence was terrible (needed to know that before the game!); he also admitted picking too many inexperienced players (quite a few older heads in the VFL now); Kennedy hurt himself in the warm-up; played on and scored 29 SC points (he had been good in recent weeks); Viney was injured; Port had some injury concerns of a lesser nature; let’s put it down to a MFC shocker (like in R2 when they lost to Essendon); Port’s sore players from last week (see preview above) all came up well; Tyson was first up from an illness and scored a poor 47 SC

 

St Kilda v Fremantle at Docklands Saturday May 28 (4.35pm)
The Dockers lose 4 to injury, but gain some reasonable players back (including Barlow who got leather poisoning in the WAFL); the Saints lose Billings and Webster, but are far better off in terms of injury; there is a temptation to pick the Saints as certs; it will be resisted because of Ross Lyon’s fondness for the Docklands (even though the Saints have won 3 of their last 5 at the venue against the Dockers); Saints by 21 points
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 21 points and they won by 34; analysis was mixed; the right team was tipped, but the variance should have been tipped as EXTREME – with the Saints going from 4 goals + up to 3 goals + down and then winning by over 6 goals; the wild swings justifies the reason NOT to tip the Saints as CERTS; but they did win very easily in the end; it is noted that the Dockers have some regulars of recent years who produced low scores (Ballantyne 32 SC points and nothing on the scoreboard; Ibbotson 44; Suban 55 and Mayne 60)

 

Essendon v Richmond at MCG Saturday May 28 (7.25pm)
The Bombers have been going good, then bad in alternate weeks since round 2 (with their good weeks only resulting in 1 win – but including honourable loses); when a team has form patterns like this, the graph will eventually head south; they may be competitive this week – as it is a big game for the Dons (similar when they had the march of support in R2 before beating the Dees); the Tigers usually do well after going to Perth; expect them to win this one and continue their run of better form; Tigers by 34 points and just CERTS
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 34 points and they won by 38; analysis was okay here; Jamar came in for the Bombers for the injured Leuenberger – a like for like, but a slight negative for Essendon; they also lost Hartley in 3Q; nothing mush else to report; the CERT call was correct and the Tigers came away with the W they sought

 

Adelaide v GWS Giants at Adelaide Oval Saturday May 28 (7.40pm)
This is the toughest one to pick of all; the Crows will be tipped for one reason only; the Giants had a “win against the odds” type effort last week when they lost 2 players early; the win may not have been as good as it looked because the Dogs had their own troubles; Jong (who got suspended for hitting Buntine) wasn’t that great thereafter and Stevens seemed to play with an injury; it is expected that the Giants might have a slight letdown after last Sunday’s game; meanwhile, the Crows have been itching to “prove themselves” since losing the Dangerfield game 2 weeks ago; the big win over the Suns didn’t satisfy them of the footy scribes; a win this week will be 
sufficient – and will almost seal up a finals sport.  Crows by 7 points, but EXTREME variance because the Giants may just blitz the Crows if they aren’t flat
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 7 points and they won by 22; analysis was quite good in this instance – because it was considered a flip of the coin game; but it was a bit woosie because too much credence was given to the ability of the Giants to come up after their heroics of the previous week; the EXTREME variance call was correct – with the Crows getting out to a 46 point lead; the Giants also had the worse end of the deal in terms of injuries, but they had nothing to worry about compared to the Blues and Pies

 

 

 

Carlton v Geelong at Docklands Sunday May 29 (1.10pm)
The Blues listed Kreuzer and Casboult as being several weeks away early this week and both have been named on the 7 man IC bench; expect both to drop out on Friday night when the list is trimmed; or, if they play, that their output will be minimal; the Cats had a great win for “Danger” in Adelaide on Friday night in R8 before having a restful weekend and then getting totally smashed by the Pies early last week; they will atone here; Cats by 45 points and CERTS
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 45 points nut the Blues won by 19; analysis was a million miles off and this was one of the upsets of the year – especially as the Blues lost Murphy + Sumner early; both teams had late changes which evened things out; one theory is that the inclusion of Kreuzer and Casboult (listed as “3 weeks” on the club’s injury list earlier in the week) and the early injuries may have lulled the Cats into a false sense of security (beware the wounded Tiger – or Blue, in this case) – and they just expected to run over the top of the Blues when required. BIG APOLOGIES for poor analysis and tipping the Cats as CERTS; no real positives here, except that many others made the same error; this was one of the Blues greatest H&A wins

 

Collingwood v Western Bulldogs at MCG Sunday May 29 (3.20pm)
This is an EXTREME variance game, because it is a bit hard to work out where the Dogs are at; and also how good the Pies are; Collingwood’s form may continue, but how much of the win last week was about Geelong’s sluggish start?  They need to be given definite credit – maybe more so for hanging on and pulling away late – than their great start;  the Dogs were poor last week – with coach Beveridge stating that 15 players underperformed (or similar words); they will be very keen to atone and have Redpath and Matthew Boyd back from suspension; a loss for the Pies would almost kill off their finals chances (especially if the Crows also win); Dogs by 7 points in a tricky one.
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 7 points and they won by 21; analysis was far better than it looked; most were much more confident than the “7 points” above, but it was correctly labelled a big danger game; should the Magpies have won? Maybe! they were looking like winners until injuries slowed them down and they were left without a rotation late in the contest; those injured or struggling were: Adams (0 DT pts in 2H), Toovey (0 DT pts after QT), Fasolo (0 DT pts in 4Q), Moore (6 DT pts in 4Q) and Crocker (not mentioned but had ankle problems in 3Q and had 2 DT pts in 4Q); “We dodged a bullet” was the quote from Dog coach Beveridge; those who tipped the Pies can consider themselves stiff not to have come away with the win; the EXTREME variance call was borderline – maybe the game trend just fell into this category due to Collingwood injuries

 

West Coast Eagles v Gold Coast Suns at Subiaco Oval Sunday May 29 (4.40pm)
Please see Penny’s preview below
The only issue here is the margin; the Suns picked up another 5 injuries and there may be doubts on the full fitness of some players coming back in; Eagles by 80 points and CERTS of the WEEK
Reviews to be done Tuesday 31 May
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 80 points and they won by 77; analysis was brief, effective, but nothing special (since evryone expected a big win); the Suns lost Kolodjashnij (replaced by Wills); other than that, all as expected; the Eagles were correctly tipped as CERTS of the WEEK, but you didn’t have to be Young Einstein to work that out

 

Certs: Eagles (never in doubt), then Cats (always looked in strife), Tigers (always safe) and Hawks (no problems)

Gauntlet: Cats (GAWN)
 coming up: GE this week than maybe   AD    HA   FR   RI   WC   ST   NO   BR   PO   CO  GC and omitting Essendon
Already used: WB, CA, SY, GW, ME
Those still alive need to have a good look at the bye rounds; this is where most might come unstuck

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Dees to win by more than a point (never a hope); Eagles to win by more than 75 points (just got there late in the game)

 

Technical Analysis prior to R10, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 26 May 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was reasonably good – even though the Crows only just exceeded the 11 goal mark and 12 1/2 or 75 points.
Still, it is a positive

This week, two games stand out – and they both have their genesis in a single incident; the Eagles were leading by 25 points when Gaff was concussed and 31 as a result of the free kick; they then fell in to win by 8 points in the final quarter and a half; this is somewhat similar to the Brisbane / Melbourne in 2014; the Dees looked likely to win or lose narrowly when they lost a player in an ugly incident; they they hardly scored and lost by 23 points; the next week the winners – the Lions – were totally hammered by the Crows while the Dees were soundly beaten by the Hawks – as expected.

This time the team responsible for the concussion – Port – still lost (unlike the Lions), but the outcome may be similar; I expect Port to definitely lose to the Dees in Alice Springs; meanwhile the Eagles play the Suns who have ANOTHER 5 INJURIES from last week; so my prediction is a bit of an either / or scenario with a cumulative likelihood; either both the Eagles and the Dees will outperform expectations; or maybe 1 may be about as expected and the other will greatly exceed expectations;  it all stems from what I see as a false lead from the Port / Eagles game last week.  got it?  Good!

 

 

 

Round 11, 2016 (all times are AET) 

 

Tipping results for R10: Supertipping: 7 out of 9 (good) for a total of 67 and ranking improved from 2,846 to 1,935 out of 43,601 tipsters (top 4%)

Streak: 3/4 (with Hawks, Tigers and Eagles all winning easily; but then the Cats bit the dust; streak rose to 12; crashed down to earth and now back up to 1 after the Eagles won; however, ranking improved from 5,018 to 3,048 (top 12% (some tipsters came unstuck this week with the Cats – otherwise, it was an easy week to tip certs)

GAUNTLET: lost (with the Cats never looking likely); now down from 4,185 to 3,576 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive {PS: the Eagles (still available before R10) was the obvious easy tip; but tipping them would have created difficulties down the track}

50/50: 1/2 (with the Eagles winning by enough, but the Dees getting belted was the loss), so at 11 out of 24 = 45% (= poor)

Early thoughts for R11: the cert appears to be the Swans; full stop; all other games carry some risk; but tips would probably be Roos, Hawks, Blues, Cats, Dockers, Port, Dogs and Crows

 

 

Round 11, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FRIDAY)

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 NMFC RICH HOBART  NMFC  14  EXTREME  A chance
2 HAW MELB MCG  HAW  18  EXTREME  A chance
3 CARL BRIS DCKLNDS  CARL  24  EXTREME  A tiny chance
4 GEEL GWS GEEL  GEEL  7  EXTREME  A definite chance
5 GCS SYD GLD CST  SYD  41  HIGH  No hope at all
6 FREO ESS SUBI  FREO  33  HIGH  A tiny chance
7 COLL PORT MCG  COLL  11  EXTREME  No outsider here
8 WBD WCE DCKLNDS  WCE  4  HIGH  No outsider here
9 ADEL STK ADEL  ADEL  30  HIGH   A tiny chance

 

ROUND 11

North Melbourne v Richmond at Blundstone Arena Hobart  Friday June 3 (7.50pm)

Data to be added FridayThe Scott twins have had a bad run recently – the Roos lost for the first time last weekend and the Cats have lost 2 in a row; now Brad Scott has gone home ill; Darren Crocker will stand in for Brad (as he did last year in Hobart – coincidence!); why didn’t the league agree to send Chris over and none of us would be any the wiser?

Last year Crocker coahed his team to a narrow win as slight outsiders. So the team should not be in a panic about this and it will be assessed as a zero impact event
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 14 points and they won by 70; analysis was a fair way off, but the tigers had some excuses; they lost Grimes before the game (replaced by Chaplin), then Morris in 1Q, Vlaustin in 2Q and Griffiths in 3Q; add to this that Brandon Ellis had an absolute shocker – and the Tigers didn’t have a hope; the Roos had minor issues – Goldstein out and replaced by Daw & Wright injured late in the game; it also looks liek the Roos were really UP for this maiden Friday night game in Tassie; and the extra days break offset the second week of travel; the Tigers easily beat the Dons last week, but it looks like Essendon has hit the wall; the EXTREME variance call was correct; apologies for not completing preview

 

Hawthorn v Melbourne at MCG Saturday June 4 (1.45pm)

The Hawks have won the past 12 in a row against the Dees and the wins range from 21 points up to a huge 105; the last win by the Dees was in 2006 (by 75 points, if you don’t mind umpire!); from 2007 until now, the Hawks would have been hot favourites in most of these encounters. But don’t write off the Dees totally; they are playing their best footy since 2006 now (in 2016, that is) and the Hawks are arguably the worst performed back to back to back premiers of all time; okay, that was a joke, but the thing is that they are struggling a bit; Hodge is out; Mitchell has been tagged and has battled as a result; their INS are debutante Stewart and the inexperienced Howe.

But can the Dees take advantage of any vulnerability in the Hawks?  The long losing run could be a mental block; but, if they do manage to hit the lead, they may get a surge of momentum and run away with it; add in the 5 changes for Melbourne and you get an EXTREME variance game.

Coach Roos came good with his promise to play a more experienced team – with “sliding” Dawes and almost forgotten Trengove and Vandenberg back in.  They were so VERY poor last week that a marked improvement is likely.

The Hawks’ only put the Lions away very late last week – with the Hawks 18 pts up mid last term before kicking the final 5 goals; it is likely that they were a bit flat for most of the game after having a huge game the previous week (Friday night) against the Swans; if so, then they may do better this week.

Hawks by 18 points in an EXTREME variance game
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 18 points and they won by 18; analysis was perfect in almost every way; first – the winner and margin; but also the EXTREME variance call was correct – with the Dees going from ~2 goals up to ~4 down, then 2 up again before going down by 3; the end result was a combination of the Dees being better than last week showed and the Hawks not really playing like triple reigning premiers

 

Carlton v Brisbane Lions at Docklands Saturday June 4 (2.10pm)

See above comments about the Hawthorn vs Lions R10 game; there are reasons NOT to be excited about both teams this weekend; the negative case for Brisbane is partially explained above (Hawks flat after R9 Swans game); the other thing to note is that the long-awaited return of a star for a lowly team is often accompanied by a poor team effort; Rocky comes back after missing R8-10 (plus others earlier in the year) and they have a first gamer in Jansen.

The Blues were truly magnificent against the Cats last weekend in a superhuman effort; they lost Murphy and Sumner early; with Kreuzer and Casboult making early returns from injury; teams that do this often underperform the following week; but the Blues were expected to be favoured by about 6-8 goals in this game; the actual tip is generally about 4 goals; so they letdown factor seems to have been taken into account already.

With doubts on both teams, the variance will be EXTREME and it’s the Blues to win (but not certs) by 24 points
Post match review: Blues were tipped by 24 points and they won by 38; analysis was just average; the EXTREME variance call was incorrect as per the result and game trend; see above notes on Kreuzer and Casboult; both scored lowly; Kreuzer 25 SC but was ill and missed 2H; Casboult better but only 38; of note was that Gibbs was tagged well by Robinson and scored 42 SC and Everitt only 46 – but the Blues still won well; the Lions lost Christensen in 2Q; Rockliff was amazing with 204 SC points (how would he have been as captain?); Bell scored only 31 against his old team

 

Geelong v GWS Giants at Simonds Stadium Saturday June 4 (4.35pm)

See Penny’s write-up below where she mentions that teams failing to beat an injury-laden team the previous week often underperform; this could be the case with Geelong; but it also may provide the spur for them to snap out of a period of apparent lethargy (and poor goal-kicking). The team also looks a bit better with the changes; and Motlop may improve on some poor recent form.  Some questions remain about the Cats and their ability to pull out of the poor form;

The Giants are on the road for the second week running and this is a negative – especially late in the pre-bye period; but their overall form is excellent; they narrowly beat Geelong in R2; Stevie J returns “home” for this game; but they are just starting to pick up some injuries in recent weeks and their team is slightly unsettled.

The doubts on both teams make this another EXTREME variance game; Cats by 7 points
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 7 points and they won by 10; analysis was not as good as it looked; the Cats actually controlled the game – winning SC 1737 to 1564 & probably should have won by more; and the game scoring trend was NOT EXTREME variance; Motlop’s improvement was only minor; GWS may have, perhaps, struggled a bit late after being 2 weeks on the road

 

Gold Coast Suns v Sydney Swans at GLD CST Saturday June 4 (7.25pm)
The forecast is for heavy rain around game time up north! 45-120mm or rain! That’s a whole year’s worth of rain for some outback areas. This generally helps the home team, but the Swans have some great in and under players – while the Suns have several players underdone or just coming back from injury; the heavy track is, therefore, not ideal; in wet conditions, it is often EXTREMELY difficult to peg back a lead; so, even though the Suns might be expected to hold the Swans to a modest total in such conditions, often the losing team just cannot get going at all and despondency sets in.

But the negative for Sydney here is that they played a huge game last Friday night; having had a nice weekend rest and a CERTAIN win coming up, they could be a bit too relaxed; either way, the Swans would appear to be the CERTS of the week and tipped to win by 41 points (but check pre-game conditions)
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 41 points and they won by 38; analysis was pretty good; the Swans appeared to have been a too relaxed early, but snapped into gear thereafter

 

Fremantle v Essendon at Subiaco Oval  Saturday June 4 (7.40pm)

The Dockers may be the best 0-10 team for some time, but it’s hard to get excited about tipping them until they break the ice; this is their best chance so far and they should do it; with the talk about police investigation into the NRL and tanking being a topic this week, it is expected that the Dockers will be trying to win; maybe the fact that Essendon are coached by Woosha and that Crowley is in the team may spur Freo on to a win.

Essendon looked like going down by heaps last week but fought the game out well late; but that may have been due to the Tigers relaxing a bit at 3QT in the knowledge that the game was, ostensibly, won and that the Roos awaited 6 days later.

Dockers to win by 33 points and almost certs (but see certs below)
Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 33 points and they won by 79; analysis was barely passable; the variance was wrongly tipped as HIGH; the 79 point margin was enough to make it EXTREME; of interest was that Zaharakis scored only 20 SC points; the Dockers were really ON early and the game was over early; but the most interesting thing was Crowley doing his hammie and then getting his farewell cheer from the Dockers’ fans

 

 

Collingwood v Port Adelaide at MCG Sunday June 5 (1.10pm)

Travis is back!  Not just in the 25; he is in the 18; not only that, it is the ideal comeback game for him – he will (according to Terry Wallace today on SEN) get either  a first gamer or Carlile (whom Port don’t want to select, apparently);  see also Penny’s comments below.  It is agreed that Port’s form my be a bit shaky; certainly last week’s win was a shock – with the contest expected to be about 50/50; and how does one assess Collingwood’s form? They maybe should have won last week after being excellent the 2 previous weeks.  It would have been easy to tip them had they not lost Adams, Moore and Fasolo.

The doubts on both team’s current form + injuries makes this an EXTREME variance game; but the Pies will be tipped – even though some doubts may exist on the fitness of Toovey and Crocker.

Pies by 11 points
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 11 points but Port won by 67; analysis was miles off; most expected a close game; the only positive here was that the variance was tipped as EXTREME; the doubt on the Pies was that they had 3 out with injuries and two other injured last week – Toovey (scored 48 SC only – a bit less than average) & Crocker (only 34); it appears that the Pies were disunited late in the game; the Pies only lost the SC score 1595 to 1707 (which belies the 67 point margin); Travis was just fair!

 

Western Bulldogs v West Coast Eagles at Docklands Sunday June 5 (3.20pm)

This is the hardest game of the round to select; the Dogs maybe got out of jail last week when Collingwood got worn down by injuries; it makes it slightly difficult to assess the value of the win; they could have won this by more perhaps, but concentrated on maintaining possession late in the game against a tired opponent who found it difficult to chase and pick up the loose players.  The previous week, they had the Giants 2 men down early and still couldn’t win it.

The Eagles had a ho-hum win last week over the Suns at home; they were on a hiding to nothing, but got the 4 points; this is the scalp that they really need; they are tipped to do the same ting that the Crows did last week – win as expected over the Suns and then come good in a critical contest the week after.  this is the “scalp” that they really need in order to propel their season towards a top four (and maybe top 2) season – an away win against a top 8 team; their previous (and first for the year) away with was against middle place Port.  They looked to be winning it easily before a late drop-off when Gaff got injured.  Eagles by 4 points in a tough one to pick
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 4 points but the Dogs won by 8; analysis was so-so; it was bad to pick a loser, but the Eagles were in the game against a top 8 team this time – unlike other away trips this year; maybe the difference between the tip and the result was that the INS for the Eagles (Gaff and Yeo) scored 64 and 56SC; had they been on their average, it may have been enough to help them win; McGovern was a late withdrawal – replaced by Old King Cole who scored only 41 SC; the Dogs also had troubles in that regard – with Wood going out for Bailey Williams; McLean went off in 2Q; Roughead and Campbell battled on after knocks in 2H; coach Beveridge heaped praise on his team for the way they fought out the last term

 

Adelaide v St Kilda at Adelaide Oval Sunday June 5 (4.40pm)

The Crows should really win this one; Fisher is out injured for the Saints and the Crows have some potent tall forwards; Goodard has come in but his form in the VFL has not been that great; he only comes in due to the match-ups; this is a concern for St Kilda;  both teams are pretty healthy; the Saints were erratic in their win over Freo last week, while the Crows had a vital win over the Giants; two games in a row at home is a bonus for them.

Crows by 30 points and almost certs (but see below)
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 30 points and they won by 88; analysis was not that great; firstly, the variance turned out to be EXTREME – with the Crows winning by >6 goals more than the 5-6 goals expected;  the Crows lost Thompson before the game – replaced by Matt Crouch who got 36 touches; the Saints had a minor late change – McKenzie going out for Webster; the real problem that the Saints had was the injuries; Riewoldt was off in the first minute – came back – but only scored 45 SC points “striggling” said the coach; Goddard was off for good in 2Q and McCartin stretchered off in 3Q; Montagna hardly got a touch in 2H and no mention of this in the post-match; surely something was wrong with him; he may have stayed on injured due to the other soldiers down.

 

Certs: Swans (no worries after HT) ; and that’s it; but this website will tip the following as certs this week (based on having a run of only 1 cert at present): Swans (no worries after HT), Dockers (no worries after QT), Crows (no worries after QT)

Gauntlet: Eliminated, so cannot guess what teams others who are alive  may have left; but Swans are safest option – followed by Dockers (my be a good time to get them out of the road) and Crows; Blues would e next best; but have a good look at R13-15 byes – which may cause some forward thinking

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Dees to win of to lose by less than 31 points (no worries after HT); Swans to win by more than 39 points(just missed – maybe blame the rain); Collingwood to win (gone very early – maybe a risk given that the variance was EXTREME) 

 

 

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R11, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 03 Jun 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was dreadful – with Port belting the Dees and the Eagles just barely going better than expected; the Dees really let the team down by putting in an absolute shocker; sorry about the bad advice!

This week, three teams travel for the second consecutive week; this is highly unusual; and teams often underperform when on the road for the second time; it would be simple to tip all three (Port, Giants and Roos) to underperform; but other things muddy the waters (as often happens).  The Roos have a great record against the Tigers (bar for the last H&A game last year when they rested more than half the team); and there is uncertainty about Goldstein playing; I don’t like the game from a technical viewpoint.

Next up we have the Giants; they lost last week in Adelaide and now have to travel to the Cattery; but the Cats couldn’t even beat a beaten up Blues team last week; teams that lose like the Cats did last week can also underperform the following week; again, leave me out.

Which tales us to Port; they were great against the Dees and much has been made of their tactics in coping with a losing ruckman (Trengove – in the absence of other options due to injury); their win over the Dees looks to be overrated – as the Dees admit to taking in the wrong team & also were just terrible in some aspects of the game; it appears to be a false lead.  Meanwhile, the Pies were terrific, but lost 3 players to injury (with 2 others  – Crocker and Toovey – maybe needing fitness tests); the Collingwood surge in form appears to me to be a genuine spike and, as such, they should outperform expectations again (this week will tell).

With a negative technical lead for Port and the Magpies probably going better than most expect, I expect the Pies to win this weekend – and maybe by >2 goals

 

Round 12, 2016 (all times are AET) 

 

Tipping results for R11: Supertipping: 7 out of 9 (not so good) for a total of 74 and ranking dropped from 1,935 to 3,950 out of 43,999 tipsters (top 9%); big drop due to the fact that many tipped 9 this week and got the 2 bonus points (insert frown).

Streak: 3/3 (with Swans, Dockers and Crows all winning easily; but then the Cats bit the dust; streak now back up to 4; however, ranking dropped from 3,048 to 3,224 (top 13% – a very easy week to tip certs)

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 3,576 to 3,393 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

 

50/50: 1/3 (with the Dees getting close enough – “win”; but the 2 “losses” were Swans missing by a whisker and the Pies never a hope), so at 12 out of 27 = 44% (= poor)

Early thoughts for R12: the cert appears to be the Hawks & Tigers in a very tough week for tipsters; early thoughts would be to go for the Dogs, Lions, Cats, Eagles, Blues, Swans and Dees

Round 12, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FRIDAY)

 

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 ESS HAW DCKLNDS  HAW  55  HIGH  No hope at all
2 PORT WBD ADEL  PORT  5  EXTREME  No outsider in this game
3 BRIS FREO GABBA  FREO  12  HIGH  A chance
4 GEEL NMFC DCKLNDS  NMFC  3  HIGH  No outsider in this game
5 WCE ADEL SUBI  WCE  5  HIGH  A huge chance
6 STK CARL DCKLNDS  CARL  25  HIGH  A tiny hope
7 RICH GCS MCG  RICH  47  HIGH  No hope at all
8 GWS SYD HMBSH  SYD  13  HIGH  No outsider in this game
9 MELB COLL MCG  MELB 4  EXTREME  A big chance

 

 

ROUND 12
These write-ups are done on Wed 08 Jun 2016 and only minor notes to be added after team selection; this is a VERY TOUGH ROUND to tip!!

 

Essendon v Hawthorn at Docklands Friday June 10 (7.50pm)
This is an easy one to tip; the Hawks will win this one comfortably; the Bombers looked to be pretty much cooked and the bye cannot come soon enough; they are likely to get Kelly and Stokes back, but lose Crowley and Baguley; the 6 day break back from Perth – given their unusual pre-season – is a challenge; expect the Dons to be up and about early, but to get swamped at some stage – most likely 2Q; once it happens, the Hawks should win comfortably; tipping the margin is the tough bit; motivation might be an issue for the Hawks; they have the Dons and the Suns (in Tassie) before the bye – looks like 2 sure wins (Jeff Kennett could call for the coach’s sacking if they lose either) – but a HUGE percentage boost would help. Hawks by 55 points and CERTS of the WEEK
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 55 points and they won by 108; analysis was poor; no brownie points for tipping the Hawks as certs of the week )didn’t have to be Young Einstein to do that); the ability of the hawks to totally punish lowly sides – combined with the Bombers throwing in the towel (not that they weren’t trying, but circumstances have got the better of them) made this a huge blow-out

 

 

Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs at Adelaide Oval Saturday June 11 (1.40pm)
This is a toughie to pick; Port has had to great wins on the road, but the coach isn’t yet keen to say that they are BACK IN TOWN.  The query is: how to rate the win over the Pies; while all the talk was on Collingwood (in Victoria, at least), some credit needs to be given to Port; the Dogs got a big tick from their coach after the game; it was a win under duress – with several players struggling late in the contest (McLean gone in 2Q; Roughead and Campbell both in trouble in 3Q but soldiering on; it’s the sort of brave win that only gets followed by an under-achieving loss; on that basis, Port will be the tip.

But the jury is still out on Port & both teams look vulnerable down back; so winning it in the middle will be a key to the game; Port by 5 points
Post match review: Port was tipped by 5 points but the Dogs won by 3; analysis was close enough but everything else was wrong – the wrong team was tipped and the variance (tipped as EXTREME) was not; it was a great & tight struggle; the Dogs continue to do enough to win – this time despite having Hamling come in for the late withdrawal Adams and then losing Dahlhaus early

 

Brisbane Lions v Fremantle at Gabba Saturday June 11 (4.35pm)
This is a tricky one; the Dockers snapped a 10 game losing streak last week against a flat Bombers team; Freo has more injuries (just) than the Lions, but are a higher rated team; the Dockers have done quite well at the Gabba in recent years; and the 4.35pm time slot should suit them well – the game should be over prior to the highest of the humidity; it is also possible that the Lions’ loss against the Blues was “overrated” – because Carlton had a huge “against the odds” type win the previous week – and the Lions got the Blues at a good time; but they still couldn’t even get close; Bell had a shocker vs his old team;  back to Freo; they fact that they won so big in breaking their losing streak is a small positive; had they won by about 20-40 points, it would have been a negative; and, although it is only a small positive, any positive will get them over the line; Dockers by 12 points
Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 12 points and they won by 87; analysis was a fair way off here and the variance call (should’ve been EXTREME) was wrong; but it was good to tip the Dockers – as many were tipping a home town win; Caro reckons that Leppitsch has been on death row since the Collingwood loss in R8; they were great this time for most of 1Q and then that was it! Was it a “sack the coach game”?  Not sure just yet

 

Geelong v North Melbourne at Docklands Saturday June 11 (7.25pm)
NOTE: this is a Geelong home game at Docklands; there is a huge IN for this game: Brad Scott; also, at the time of writing, Goldstein is considered likely to play; it would be nice to know if the Cats were going to convert inside 50 entries into goals this week; they have been missing some easy shots of late. How does one assess the North win over Richmond; they clearly have to be given some credit, but the Tigers were poor AND injured; both the Scott twins’ teams are going through a spell of tough matches; this is about as close to a line-ball match as one could get; the omission of Hawkins due to suspension and the doubts over Stanley (to help out Smith in the ruck) will mean that the Roos narrowly get the nod; subject to change on Friday; Roos by 3 points
Post match review: Roos were tipped by 3 points but the Cats won by 31 ; analysis was disappointing – given the result; but not as bad as it looked; the game trend was EXTREME (with Roos getting a handy lead before being 7 goals down late in the game) but that trend PLUS the game result was largely affected by injuries to inside mids for North; it is almost impossible to know what would have happened had they all been fit throughout the night

 

West Coast Eagles v Adelaide Subiaco Oval Saturday June 11 (7.40pm)
The Crow coach was an assistant at the Eagles last year & will know plenty about the opposition; this will be assessed as a 1 goal advantage to the Crows; both teams are going pretty well at present; the Crows took full advantage of a Saints team struggling with injuries last weekend; meanwhile, the Eagles seemed to blow their chances late in the game against the Dogs – giving the ball back to the Dogs when they appeared to have enough momentum to win; the home ground advantage will mean that the Eagles are tipped – narrowly – but this is a danger game; Eagles by 5 points
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 5 points but the Crows won by 29; analysis was mixed; the wrong team was tipped and the variance was wrong; the positive was that many expected this to be a walk in the park for the Eagles; with 2 late withdrawals (Ellis in for Butler & Barrass in for McKenzie), the game would’ve been assessed at virtually 50/50; “I didn’t see this coming” said coach Simpson; but now (Thursday 16th) we find out that Nicnat has had an op and also Lycett has been omitted (rumoured to be disciplinary reasons) and had a shocker against the Crows anyway; plus the Crows are fairly much flying since they lost against Dangerfield a month or so ago (as pointed out in pure footy 16/6)

 

 

 

St Kilda v Carlton at Docklands Sunday June 12 (1.10pm)
The Saints have (as Penny says below) lost heaps of talls recently – after having an injury list of 0 a week or 2 ago; meanwhile, the Blues are gradually getting their talls baek; doubts exist on both Riewoldt and Kreuzer; watch the news on these two; Casboult will be better for the past 2 games and Phillips cold be back (esp if Kreuzer is a withdrawal); the Saints will just struggle in the height department and Carlton look to be on top of their game of late; Blues by 25 points and almost certs (but see below)
Post match review: Blues were tipped by 25 points but the Saints won by 32; analysis was dreadful here; the Saints had a decent review after the awful game against the Crows (the loss being better than it looked – due to injury); Montagna came back from horrific numbers against the Crows to be much better – clearly he must have had some problem the previous week; and the Blues apparently watched the R11 Crows / Saints game and said, “How easy is this – a win against St Kilda and then the bye” (just like Freo did against the Saints in 2014); the Saints got the jump on them and the Blues never really looked likely

 

Richmond v Gold Coast Suns at MCG Sunday June 12 (3.20pm)
The Tigers were awful for numerous reasons last weekend; they had Grimes pull out before the game and then lost Griffiths, Vlastuin & Morris on field; and Brandon Ellis had a bad one; the Suns were competitive in the slosh at home last week against the Swans; Sydney took time to get into the game (reason – playing a huge Friday night game the week before) – and maybe making the Suns look better than they were; Gold Coast are slowly getting a bit of stability into their team, but the Tigers will win this one at the MCG; they should respond  okay – they quite often do after an absolute shocker and middle of the road teams in the middle of a season generally do okay after a Friday Night Shocker; Tigers by 47 points and certs
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 47 points and they won by 17; analysis was a fair way off; looks like the Tigers were thinking of the bye for most of the game – and then they got over the line due to a combination of Cotchin and Martin playing great last quarters; plus also the Suns players still not at their collective top after returning from injury

 

GWS Giants v Sydney Swans at Homebush Sunday June 12 (4.40pm)
The Giants may be getting weary after being up for a fair while, but they will be glad to get back home after road trips against competent opponents (Crows and Cats) in recent weeks; they look to be ripe for the picking for the Swans – who had big Friday night wins over the Hawks and Roos and then a nice trip up north for a regulation win over the Suns; the nice lead-up is the main reason that the Swans will be tipped – but not as total certs; there may be a kick left in the Giants; Swans by 13 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 13 points but the Giants won by 42; analysis was way off the mark; and the variance call was also wrong – with Giants outperforming expectations by more than 6 goals; the Swans had injury troubles but this was nowhere near enough to account for the poor showing; there was a “kick” left in the Giants – and Stevie J is proving to be a good acquisition

 

 

Melbourne v Collingwood at MCG Monday June 13 (3.20pm)
The Dees are favourites and that usually causes the alarm bells to go off; this time they are playing a Magpie team were looked really awful (fans were hoping for “awesome”) last week; can the Pies bounce back?  Will Cloke get another game?  Can the Dees bear the pressure of favourites and still win?  These questions will make this an EXTREME variance game; everyone still remembers what happened in R2 when the Bombers had their only win of the season to date; on the other hand, the Dees have often been pummeled by Collingwood – so it is easy to imagine that they would go right on with the job if they were to get a break; and maybe the fighting effort against the Hawks (who have also smashed them of late) will give them confidence; Dees by 4 points
Post match review: Dees were tipped by 4 points and they won by 46; analysis was better than it looked; the real positive (apart from picking a winner) was that the variance was labelled EXTREME; this was definitely true – with the Dees coming from 2 goals down at QT to win by over 7 goals; maybe the tip was a bit woosie and overestimated the ability of the Pies to get up after a shocker

 

Certs: Hawks (always safe), then Tigers (got over the line – thanks to Dusty); and, since this website’s winning run is not huge, add in the risky Blues (never a hope)

Gauntlet: Eliminated, so cannot guess what teams others who are alive  may have left; but this is a great time to select Hawthorn or Richmond; then the Blues; if you have used all those teams up; maybe Swans but all else is risky indeed

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Freo to win by more than 9 points (safe at HT); Blues to win by more than 2 goals (never a hope); Tigers to win by more than 31 points (never a hope); Swans to win by more than 2 points  (never a hope)

 

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R12, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 03 Jun 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was dreadful – second time I have gone against Port and paid the price; sorry about the bad advice! It appears that the problems for the Pies outweighed any travel issues with Port

This week, a comment by Chris Scott will come into focus; he expects some teams may struggle if they haven’t managed their players well (with the interchange cap of 90 this year); of course, teams with injury issues have limited opportunity to rest players – if anything, they are bringing some players back too early! With the byes coming up in rounds 13-15, all teams will be looking forward to the break with differing motivations.  For the Suns, the bye needed to be six weeks ago and continue for 12 weeks!  Others will be resting key players and then preparing for a tilt at the flag.

Looking at the strugglers (these are NOT nappies!) last weekend: four of the losers massively underperformed:
Collingwood: lost by 67  (64 pts worse than expected)
Essendon: lost by 79  (54 pts worse than expected)
Richmond: lost by 70  (55 pts worse than expected)
St Kilda: lost by 88  (54 pts worse than expected)
This is the first time in 2016 that 4 teams have all been more than 50 points below expectations. Of interest is that 3 of these teams (Collingwood, Richmond and St Kilda) all have a round 13 bye; the Bombers have the bye in R14, but they have had other one-off type hurdles this year.

Thanks to Harry Hindsight for pointing this out; it doesn’t help us much after the round is over; but it does beg the question: how will they go next week (prior to their bye) and will teams with R14 byes suddenly drop off the cliff this week?

The 2 other teams with R1 byes were Adelaide (who beat the Saints & obviously outperformed by 54 pts) and Carlton (who are on a great winning streak if you discount the blip against the Roos and went slightly better than expected against the Lions).

Looking at these four teams that underperformed massively:
The Pies went this way Q by Q: -11, -14 (poor kicking in 2Q),  -25, -17
Dons Q by Q: -22, -24, -35, +2
Tigers Q by Q: -23, -2, -32, -13
Saints Q by Q: -33, -18, -24, -13

All four of them had shocking third terms – with 2 of the four virtually already gone at half time and the other 2 hanging in with a slim hope (Pies and Tigers both 25 points down); the Tigers and Saints had injury concerns on the day; the Pies played players under an injury cloud.

The six teams with byes in round 14 are Essendon, Melbourne, Port, Swans, Dogs and Eagles
Essendon play the Hawks (round 15 bye)
Melbourne plays Collingwood  (round 13 bye)
Port plays the Dogs, (each round 14 bye)
Swans plays the Giants (round 15 bye)
Eagles plays the Crows (round 13 bye)

I will watch with interest to see which, if any, of these teams will put in a shocker; maybe the teams with longer injury lists would be more likely to crash; this eliminates the Swans and Eagles (both low injury numbers) while Essendon, Melbourne, Port and the Dogs all play teams with similar injury statuses.

I was looking at the Hawks winning bigger than expected, but they have a BIG Friday night game vs Roos in round 14 and it is possible that they take the foot off the pedal (or rest players), so let’s look at the Port / Dogs game; I am not going to tip a winner; but, given the trend we saw above – and the fact that both teams are a little light on down back, I reckon that whichever team gets on top should run away to a 5 goal plus victory; I assess this as more likely to be Port, but the Dogs could still race away if they get a break; I’ll rate  Port as 65% likely to be the big winner and Dogs 35% likely; if the end result is within 5 goals either way, then I’ll call it a loss for me.

PS: I will also tip the Blues to win by over 4 goals – because the Saints BMI (Big Man Index) has recently taken a hit – with Longer, Dempster, Fisher, Goddard and McCartin all out and Riewoldt doubtful

 

Round 13, 2016 (all times are AET) 

 

Tipping results for R12: Supertipping: 4 out of 9 (dreadful!) for a total of 78 and ranking dropped from 3,950 to 6.061 out of 44,131 tipsters (top 14%); big drop because many 50/50 type games were tipped incorrectly.

Streak: 2/3 (with Hawks winning easily & Tigers finishing well to win; but then the risky one – Carlton – were aw(e)ful; streak wiped and now up to 1 thanks to Dustin Martin; however, ranking dropped from 3,224 to 3,584 (top 14% – a tricky week to tip certs – with favourites Eagles. Blues and Swans all losing)

GAUNTLET: eliminated; there are now down from 3,393 to 2,538 out of 32,765 tipsters remain alive

50/50: 1/4 (with the one positive being Freo – winning by heaps; but Blues lost, Tigers didn’t win by enough and Swans lost), so now at 13 out of 31 = 41% (= woeful)

Early thoughts for R13: the cert appears to be the Eagles & Giants; early tips in other games are Cats, Swans, Port and Hawks; but the Roos / Hawks game depends a lot on the injury status of Roos players

Round 13, 2016 (ALL TIPS SUBJECT TO CHANGE FRIDAY)

Game Home Away Venue Tip Margin Variance  Outsider is
1 NMFC HAW DCKLNDS  HAW  17  EXTREME  A chance
2 BRIS WCE GABBA  WCE  39  EXTREME No hope at all
3 FREO PORT SUBI  FREO 13   EXTREME  Tipped to win
4 WBD GEEL DCKLNDS  GEEL  6  HIGH  A big chance
5 SYD MELB SCG  SYD  24  HIGH  A tiny hope
6 ESS GWS DCKLNDS  GWS  42  HIGH  No hope at all

 

ROUND 13

 

Friday June 17

 

North Melbourne v Hawthorn at Docklands (7.50pm)
The Roos were “beaten up bad” as the Yanks tend to say, last time against the Hawks; they have been waiting all this time for revenge – and now, they lose 4 players to injury; meanwhile, the Hawks were able to rest players with slight niggles (Mitchell and Duryea) plus get Ceglar back from suspension; and the Hawks get an extra day’s break as well; it’s all set up for a Hawk win; but the revenge factor is a plus for the Roos – especially early in the game; consider the Dogs vs GWS last year; they played a shocker against GWS in 2014 last round; then the off season turmoil occurred; the Dogs came out against GWS in R9 last year and were up 8 goals to 2 at QT; expect the Roos to be similarly fired up early! But it will be difficult for them (but not impossible) to last the distance; Hawks by 17 points; the revenge factor gives the game a greater chance of significant momentum swings – hence the EXTREME variance call
Post match review: Hawks were tipped by 17 points and they won by 9; analysis was mixed here; firstly, if you tipped the Roos, you were robbed; the Roos won this one 1,769 to 1,523 in SC scores; the Roos basically lost it through poor kicking at goal; the Roos were really up for this one – which was known – but the problem was the concern about Atley and Dal Santo going into the game under injury clouds; they both did well; also Wood and Dumont were excellent; the EXTREME variance call was probably just correct due to the momentum swings

 

Brisbane Lions v West Coast Eagles at Gabba Saturday June 18 (1.40pm)
The Lions may possibly be sacking their coach in 2016; the aim of this website is not to spread rumours – it is merely to take such possibilities into account; the Lions have this match and then a game against Richmond in Melbourne prior to the bye; the players up from the NEAFL have been going okay – without really banging the door down (given how poorly the Lions’ NEAFL team is perfoming overall)

The Eagles just had their worst 40 minutes of play at home ever (almost) late last week, they are bound to come out steaming against the Lions early this time (might not sound logical but it seems to happen); but they lose both ruckmen – with insurance man Giles coming in; McKenzie was a late withdrawal last week and is STILL not back; Wellingham was poor numerically late last week; if Brisbane have any fight left in them, they can be competitive in this contest; doubts on the Lions’ mental state – plus the ruck changes for the Eagles – make this an EXTREME variance game – mainly the chance that the Lions might be awful this weekend; this week appears to have been a “line in the sand” type week for the Eagles; expect them to be much better now; Eagles by 39 points and just certs.
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 39 points and they won by 49; analysis was just fair; the EXTREME variance call was incorrect; there was no sign of the players not playing for the coach at Brisbane; the margin tip was good enough; Rich was good early (over 2/3 of his DT score in 1Q) and then tagged  out of it by Hutchings; West went out for the Lions and Martin scored his best SC score by far (142) this year – no NicNAt and Lycett this week and Mrtin won the hit-outs clearly; the Lions lost Harwood early; the Eagles looked like they were Just Going, but got the job done – without getting fans excited about a 2016 premiership; “last ten minutes, the boys looked tired” said coach Simpson; they have the R14 bye – unlike Brisbane; and “confidence took a hit last week” {vs Crows}; Priddis was tagged out of it by Robinson but also copped a broken nose early; from a SC viewpoint, the Lions dominated possession, but were not able to hurt the Eagles when they had the ball

 

Fremantle v Port Adelaide at Subiaco Oval Saturday June 18 (4.35pm)
This is a tricky one to tip;  Taberner rolled an ankle in 3Q last week and didn’t do a lot in 4Q; he may be in a small amount of doubt; Port surprisingly dropped Polec; the tip here will be for Freo for a few reasons – firstly, they are back in form (albeit against 2 teams going very poorly at present); they were fair against the Saints in R10 (and the Saints had a full squad back then) and had a few players struggling in that game (Ibbotson the main one); next, Port had a tough game agianst the Dogs last week and may find it hard to come up; and also the Dockers do okay coming back from QLD so long as they have a 7 day break (which they do here); the danger for the Dockers is that their injury list is a bit longer than that of Port; but doubts on both teams make this another EXTREME variance game; Dockers by 13 points
Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 13 points and they won by 17; analysis was very good – given that Port was a slight favourite in this contest; the EXTREME variance call was marginal – not huge swings n momentum, but 6 lead changes; Port had a hard game last week vs the Dogs and they were maybe a bit flat; they were outworked by the Dockers, according to coach Hinkley; Barlow was probably the difference – he taged Robbie Gray and kept him to 78 SC points (well under his average) and scored 168 SC himself; both teams lost a tall early

 

Western Bulldogs v Geelong at Docklands Saturday June 18 (7.25pm)
The Dogs just keep on getting up and winning close games – and this one looks to be a close one as well; this time they lose Dahlhaus – an important player – while the Cats get back Hawkins; the Cats won well last week but the Roos virtually had no chance once the Cats hit the front in 3Q (after all North’s injury concerns); it makes it tough to analyse the value of that win; the previous home win over the Giants may be a better guide; the Dogs had a tough game against Port and this may be a small negative; Cats by 6 points
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 6 points and they won by 57; analysis was way off here and the fact that the Cats won by so much in what was expected to be a close game meant that the variance was EXTREME, but not tipped to be so; the Dogs (see above review) seemed to be flat after their win over Port; and the Cats were hot early; the one positive was that the winner was tipped; the Dogs’ tough game against Port was a factor: “maybe we were a little bit off with our energy”, said Bulldog coach Beveridge; that was the most significant quote from the presser.  It appears that a combination of the low energy and a bit of Geelong pressure plus a few shots that missed and the the Dogs found themselves down 1:9 to 10:3 at HT and the rest was hysteria.  Cats lost Guthrie before the game – replaced by Gregson – who did okay

 

 

Sydney Swans v Melbourne at SCG Sunday June 19 (1.10pm)
This game might be played in torrential rain!  The forecast looks glum for sun-lovers; this will probably suit the Swams more than Melbourne; the  Swans had injury troubles last week but didn’t deserve to win;  Ted Richards is still not back (in the NEAFL this week & likely to be after the R14 bye) and, of course, they lose Tippett; but their overall injury quotient isn’t that high (so long as Mills + Heeney come up as expected); the Dees were very good vs the Pies last Monday; it was their first win on QB Monday since 2007; if anything, it is expected that the Swans might bounce back well from the pain of losing to their “little brother” whereas the Dees have a 6 day break and have to battle with a possible letdown after such a huge win for the club and it will be tough for Viney to back up 6 days after an early return from injury; Swans to win in this one by 24 points and not certs (but see below)
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 24 points and they won by 55; analysis was fair; it is noted that wet conditions rarely lend themselves to momentum switches; this was the case again – with the Swans putting their foot down in 4Q; this was somewhat due to both teams having the R14 bye; and the beaten team lost momentum; the Swans laid a record 155 tackles; the Swans also looked UP after their poor showing against the Giants; Heeney and Mills (see above) were both ok; happy to tip them below as a risky cert

 

Essendon v GWS Giants at Docklands Sunday June 19 (4.40pm)
The Giants will win this one; however, there is a danger that they might consider this as an early bye; the Bombers are really desperate for a rest and this is the biggest minus for them; but the coach reckons that they will be better prepared for this game; it helps that it is not a marquee game (last week was a Marquis game!); so, despite the chance that Essendon could possibly go to the bye with another 100 point defeat, it is considered not so likely; the Giants have to negotiate this game and then a home game vs the Blues to go to the bye at 10 & 4; they will do that; expect Essendon to be better for longer this week – but maybe to drop off late in the game; it appears that the 6 day break off a game in Perth didn’t work for them last week “more energy” this week – says the coach; Stokes was poor first up last week and Goddard copped a broken nose at the first bounce and struggled a bit; Giants by 42 points
Post match review: Giants were tipped by 42 points and they won by 27; analysis was reasonably good; the scoring trend was probably EXTREME – with the Dons being really up early (coach Worsfold was correct in that they would be better than against the Hawks tha previous week – maybe it was the 6 day break back from Perth, but their style of play also looked more positive); and the Giants may have been basking in the glory of their win over the Swans when they stepped onto the ground – that, plus the Dons being different and more attacking

 

Byes: Adelaide, Carlton, Collingwood, Gold Coast Suns, Richmond and St Kilda

Certs: Giants are the only true certs for those on a long streak (struggled early but got there), but this website (on a short streak) will also add in the Eagles (never in doubt) and Swans (never in doubt) (both slight risks) 

Gauntlet: Eliminated, but see certs comments above and keep an eye open for upcoming matches

50/50 (where the experts seem to have got it wrong): Freo to win or to lose by less than a goal

 

 

Technical Analysis prior to R13, 2016

By Penny Dredfell

Added 17 Jun 2016 

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the analysis was even worse than the previous week; Port and the Dogs was a dour struggle; and the Blues were terrible; SORRY!

This week, nothing really stands out clearly; one thing that I will agree with Longggey on is that Port seemed to have had a tough game last week; and they play a Freo team that is back in form; or are they? Big wins over the Dons and Lions!  Does that count?  Pav comes back into the team and may announce an early retirement; each home game between now and then (and upcoming 350th, it that means anything) may be an opportunity for him and the team to lift; and also the team’s last game at the MCG for the year in R14; with Port coming up to the bye, it is possible that they could drop away late if the Dockers get a break; I am tipping the Dockers to win and (not that this lat bit helps people too much) to run away with it if they get a 3+ goal break in the final term