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Round 8, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R8, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 21 May 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: it was a mixed bag! Good analysis and preview for the Dogs game; in fact, the Dockers began brilliantly; then almost lost the lead; then found something – but still fail to win by 3 goals, despite being 28 point favourites.

The Roos let me down in that they didn’t blow the Bombers away. Maybe the Roos kicked themselves out of a big win; but maybe also the Bombers found something – despite the travel factor.

 

This week, we will continue to focus on the Dockers; and also have a squiz at the GF replay between the Hawks and Swans.

As noted last week, Fremantle has been up for a long time.  The Dogs almost ran them down last week and had Jong + Wallis both a bit underdone.

This week, they are at home to a Kangaroos team with a depleted midfield (Swallow, Dal Santo and Wells all out).  Naturally, the Dockers are about 5 goal favourites.

I still say that the Dockers are due for a loss (with Crows away and Tigers at home next up) because they are dropping off late in games – like a share giving indication that it is about to tank.

Like last week, the most likely thing is for Freo to fall over the line and win unimpressively – with the Roos a small chance to win.  I would not expect a big Docker victory – less than 4 goals – or a Roo win is my tip.  The eventual loss will “do them good”.

Looking at GF replays in cases where the loser is beaten by more than 30 points: there are 16 such cases since 1990 and in 9 cases, the beaten GF team from the year prior won.

Ten times, the beaten GF team exceeded expectations in the replay and the average “out-performance was 7 points.

Given that the Hodge-less Hawks are currently about 10 points favourites, this would put the Swans in with a great chance.

When the beaten GF team significantly underperformed in the replay (3 times) – 2 of those times were due to the team having a bad year after the big GF loss.  The Swans are doing well in 2015.

From the 9 cases where the GF loser exceeded expectations the next year, 8 of those were by more than 10 points.

Given these stats, the Swans would have to be a definite chance to win the game.

The yo-yo form of the Hawks adds to the intrigue.  Their performance against expectation this year has been way up win a win followed by way down with a loss.  Last week, it was way up with a win.  They won’t beat the Swans unless they snap this pattern immediately.

I am not bold enough to declare the Swans will win, but they are a big chance and one shouldn’t get too keen on the Hawks.  They are definitely not certs.