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Round 8, 2015

Round 8, 2015

SuperTipping results for R7: 7 winners for a total of 43 + 2 bonus pts = 45 and and ranking improved from 2,902 to 2,356 out of 46,170 tipsters (top 5% – very good)

Footytips.com.au Streak: 4 out of 4 (Roos, Crows, Hawks and Dogs and Eagles all winning).  Streak back up to 4. Ranking slipped from 6,800 to 7,566 and in top 39% (mediocre –  but a chance to improve)

50/50 tips: 2 out of 4 for the week (With the Roos not winning by enough; the Pies not winning at all – but good news with the Crows winning by enough and the Dogs getting close enough to Freo) and 7 out of 20 for the year = a result of a poor 35% (anything above 50% is good).

The AFL has a tipping comp at https://tipping.afl.com.au/
Remember that they also have “the gauntlet” from R5 (where you have to pick 1 only cert per week, but you cannot pick the same team twice) and “pick 5” from R11 (where you pick 5 winners per week and get eliminated if one of your 5 tips loses).

From now on, those still in the comp can refer to the “certs” notes below week to week

Here is the Gantlet guide:
http://www.longggey.com/2015-previews/gauntlet-2015
To find the Gauntlet (which is cleverly hidden), go to the AFL tipping website, move the mouse to “tipping” and a drop down menu for Gauntlet will appear.

Early thoughts for R8: there looks to be 2 tricky games: the GF replay between Hawks and Swans – maybe Hawks but not certain; and Giants vs Crows – Giants the tip, but not overly confident.

There are also 7 hot favourites to varying extents; quite keen on the Cats, Eagles, Pies, Dogs and Port; a slight query on the Dons as favourites to beat Brisbane; while the Roos are the best of the big outsiders against a Docker team that has been up for a long time

 

Round 8, 2015

Game

Home

Away

Venue

Tip

Margin

Variance

Outsider is

1

GEEL

CARL

DCKLNDS

GEEL

33

HIGH

Probably no hope

2

STK

WCE

DCKLNDS

WCE

26

EXTREME

Some small hope

3

GWS

ADEL

HMBSH

GWS

9

EXTREME

A definite chance

4

GCS

COLL

GLCST

COLL

29

HIGH

No hope

5

HAW

SYD

MCG

HAW

9

HIGH

A definite chance

6

FREO

NMFC

SUBI

FREO

17

HIGH

Some small hope

7

ESS

BRIS

DCKLNDS

ESS

24

EXTREME

Some small hope

8

MELB

WBD

MCG

WBD

22

HIGH

Some small hope

9

PORT

RICH

ADEL

PORT

25

EXTREME

Some small hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium (rarely used) means the website’s tip is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website’s tip being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions or wild momentum swings are expected

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1 GEEL      vs.      CARL         Docklands   Fri, 22 May 7:50 pm

Weather:

The Cats should win this one

The Cats are gone! Their injury list may not be the longest, but they have multiple players out for big chunks of time.  The underrated Mitch Duncan (out for 3 months) was the last straw on top of Jimmy Bartel, Daniel Menzel, Nathan Vardy with a host of fringe players all out for extended periods.  “Gone” means “cannot make top 4”.

But the good news is that they are playing the Blues.  Carlton has their own injury worries.  Despite regaining Kade Simpson and Patrick Cripps, they are still missing Matthew Kreuzer (right decision to give him another run in the 2s, but they need him), Lachie Henderson and Andrew Walker.  All 3 were given some chance to return this week. Neither of the 2 inclusions from last week’s VFL team were in the best 6, while Nick Graham was BOG and is an emergency!!

The Blues also made the news this week with coach Mick Malthouse unhappy that official talk of rebuilding has occurred.  There was lots of unofficial talk of a rebuild – including a comment from Jarryd Waite to the effect of “the Blues are rebuilding and I am off to the Roos”

The Cats are a bit vulnerable in this game – with several stars still out and a couple just coming back who could possibly need the run. It is unlikely that the Blues will win this, but they could muster a confidence-boosting loss – if that makes sense (ie take some positives out of the game and build towards a win soon; but after this game the Blues play the Swans in Sydney  then the Crows in Melbourne before the bye).

The Blues lost twice at this venue to the Cats last year by narrow margins in games their fans swear that they should have won.

Geelong by 33 points and just certs (you may want to avoid tipping them as certs if you are on a huge number of live certs)

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 33 points and they won by 77.  Analysis was fair.  There were some concerns about the Cats – which were all quickly allayed.  Andrew Mackie and James Kelly had missed a fair bit of footy – and there was some concern about how they would come up.  Both did well.  To further aid the Cats, their second tier players – Mark “cannot pronounce his name” Blicavs (quickly becoming a key player), Josh Caddy, Cameron “I’ve got Juddy’s jumper” Guthrie and Jordan Murdoch all scored among the top 6 for the Cats in SC.

The Blues struggled all night – except for a few competitive patches – and Kade Simpson was really good.  Bryce Gibbs went off injured without being able to contribute much.  But the biggest trouble seems to be rumours of disunity at the club. It was covered extensively by Channel 7.

The positive here was that the right tip was made and that the “cert” tag was never in doubt.

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2 STK vs.WCE     Docklands   Sat, 23 May 1:45 pm

The Eagles, but not certs

The Eagles really should win this – based on recent form; and they do love smashing lower ranked teams (but don’t tell Adam Simpson!).

But the form of both teams is hard to line up at present. The Saints were brave after losing players prior to, and in, the game last weekend.  But they were playing a weakened Crows team that seemed to be going through the motions a bit.

Meanwhile, the Eagles totally demolished the Suns in the wet west last weekend.  But the Suns are so far down in terms of personnel, it is hard to rate this win also.

Purely based on available talent, the Eagles would appear to be certs.  But the Icarus effect could get to them (where they fly too close to the sun and their wings melt).  If this were to occur, the most likely way would be for the Eagles to jump out to a nice lead, the Saints to peg it back in 2Q and then for the Saints to gradually get on top in 2H.

While this is slightly unlikely, there is enough risk to avoid labelling the Eagles as certs.

Eagles by 26 points and not certs.

Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 26 points and they won by 53.  In retrospect, the Eagles played like certs after a tight 1H.  There was no sign of overconfidence and they are just flying at present.

The Eagles lost Mark Hutchings before the game replaced by Jackson Nelson.  Scott Selwood played his first game for some time and was the sub.

The Saints had some injury troubles with Jimmy Webster being subbed off early in 3Q and then losing Sam Fisher for the rest of the game late 3Q.  The Saints were only 13 points down when Fisher went off; then the Eagles kicked 3:0 for the rest of the quarter and ran away in 4Q.

Given that occurrence, the tip was pretty good

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3 GWS        vs.      ADEL         Homebush  Sat, 23 May 2:10 pm

Weather: chance of a shower or 2; breezy

The Giants – with trepidation

This is a game to avoid if you can – but most cannot.

The Giants haven’t beaten the Crows in five attempts since their first contest in 2012, and have been smashed by an average margin of 87 points.  While there are some contributing factors to this stat, it is somewhat surprising.

Based on form and injuries, the Giants appear to be the clear favourite.  But there is that concern that either they will have a mental block about the Crows or… that they were primed for the Blues to show that they could win after rolling the Hawks – but then they may be flat the week after.  And the Blues have primed teams for losses quite a lot lately.

The Crows have failed to have a settled team in recent weeks – due to a number of injuries.  But the return of Josh Jenkins looks to be a plus.

This game looks to be a test of the Giants nerve and concentration.  A young-ish side such as them can drop off at times.  For a possible GWS loss scoring pattern scenario, see the Saints preview above.  Another “Crow win” pattern might see the Crows surge in 1Q.

Giants could also totally blow the Crows away.  This is an extreme variance game with the Giants tipped by 9 points – but not certs.

Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 9 points and they won by 24.  The analysis was reasonable.  There was some doubt that they could win – because the Crows were their bogey side.

Refer to the possible scoring patterns above and it can be seen that the Giants avoided the pitfalls of 1H that may have caused them to be set up for a loss.  Once they overcame those early game issues, they were always going to win.  But you cannot tip a cert at half time!

To make matters slightly easier for the Giants, Ricky Henderson was a late withdrawal for the Crows and his replacement, Sam Kerridge, was subbed out in 3Q with injury; and Rory Laird copped a head knock 3Q.

So the Crows’ effort was probably slightly better than it looked.

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4 GCS vs. COLL  Metricon Stadium          Sat, 23 May 4:35 pm

Weather: slight chance of a shower – likely to be gone by game time; a bit breezy; humidity not expected to be a factor

The Pies should do it

The Suns get some players back but still have an injury quotient of 28. Prestia is a test (this is NOT a spoonerism) and has been named in the team and there amy be another 1 or 2 in the team playing at less than 100%

The Pies get back Steele Sidebottom and their injury quotient is a manageable (by comparison) 21.

The Suns won the QLD game vs the Pies last year despite a threadbare bench in 4Q. Their sole win after that was a home win against the struggling Saints; this makes it 2 wins from their past 14 games.

The Pies have been favourites for the last 2 games – which they lost. They should get back on the winners’ list here – due to the Suns injury problems and constant changes to the team week to week.

The Pies by 29 points and certs

Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 29 points and they won by 69.  The tip was a fair way off, but closer than most who tipped in the 15-20 point range.  The experts underestimated the injury problems of the Suns – and there are also players out on the field who need to be rested.  Dion Prestia was one who battled through the match but will now miss most of the season.  Looking at some of those who were “ins” for R7, Brandon Matera scored 52 SC points and Jack Leslie 42.

Helping the Pies was the good return of Steele Sidebottom and the best game from “in” Alex Fasolo for some time.

There are no early signs of quick “Sun up”

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5 HAW vs.  SYD  MCG           Sat, 23 May 7:20 pm

Weather: a wet week but dry long before game time and light winds

The Hawks, but not certs

Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-8-2015-penny

No doubt the Swans would be privately seething about last year’s grand final – privately seething so much that the whole world knows about it.

Based on that game, the Swans don’t have a hope.  But they did actually start slight favourites back then.  They are playing down the importance of this game (just another 4 points), but listen to how loudly they sing the song if they win – that will give it away!

Both teams have had somewhat patchy form leading up to the game.  The Hawks are on a yo-yo pattern (outperforming expectations and winning, then underperforming and losing – this is a significant concern).  If this continues, they will put in a bad one and lose.  Maybe the easy match against the Dees isn’t the best preparation for a tough contest against the Swans.

There are 3 lessons that the Swans need to learn from the big one last year:
A: tag Sam Mitchell
B: tag Sam Mitchell
C: see A and B

If the coach states that they aren’t tagging Mitchell, pick the Hawks.  He is the one who get the ball out to the runners.

There were also a few players in the Red and white that had absolute shockers in that game.  They will be keen to atone.  Kurt Tippett had a slight knee problem and may not be 100% certain to play.

In the end, it may come down to how well the Swans shut down “Mitchell to the Hawk runners” and also how well the bottom 6 Swans players perform.

The experts seem to have it about right = Hawks by 9 points, but steer away from calling them certs.

Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 9 points but the Swans won by 4.  Analysis was fair and Penny’s analysis was better in this case.

The Hawks did have one or two small injury problems late – With Brian Lake, Grant Girchall and Cyril Rioli all having some problems.

But, in the end, the Hawks probably threw this game away with poor kicking.  It wasn’t just the kicking at goal.  They had 3 players only with 80% + disposal efficiency (Sam Mitchell and Cyril – and, surprisingly, Ryan Schoenmakers).  There were 8 Swans in the 80%+ category.

The last minute handball to Cyril, which he failed to grasp – summed up the game: it was there for the Hawks to win, but the Swans’ pressure and perceived pressure was just a bit too much for the Hawks.

And, although Mitchell was pretty good, he was tagged and his minder for most of the night, Ben (lacking vowels) McGlynn, kicked two goals himself.

The poor part of the analysis was that this should have been an EXTREME variance game – given the wild swings in the scoring patterns.

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6 FREO      vs.      NMFC         Subi  Sat, 23 May 5:40 pm

Weather: dry; light winds

The Dockers, but not certs

Please refer to Penny’s preview of this game here: http://www.longggey.com/2015-season/penny-dredfell-2015/round-8-2015-penny

This looks like an easy tip.  The Roos are missing Daniel Wells, Nick Dal Santo and now Andrew Swallow from the midfield.  They have to face up to the potent Docker mids – who are flying.

But the Dockers are struggling to hold this long winning run going.  They dropped off late vs the Bombers, then went from 5 goals up to level (then won by 13 points) last week against the Dogs (who had 2 players underdone).

The strain is starting to show.  The usual way for top teams like the Dockers to go in this pattern is to appear to have a game under control, but to see it slip away late and by a narrow margin.

While this may happen, the other highly likely outcome is that they may be able to eke out another win – albeit probably unimpressively.

A positive for the Roos is that they do have Todd Goldstein to combat Aaron Sandilands.  But Ben Brown being out is a big loss.

Dockers by 17 points (but not certs), with the Roos expected to be okay at the end of the contest

Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 17 points and they won by 73.  Analysis was a mile off here and also the trend prediction was incorrect.  The Roos were truly awful – as much as Freo was wonderful.

Freo well and truly bucked the trend of “due for a loss”.  They showed this tendency in R6&7, but here is a theory: they are still due for a loss, but the Roos just had an Absolute Shocker.  Todd Goldstein copped a boot in the face (not deliberate) in 3Q and scored 44SC points – his worst for the year; Jarryd Waite had a slight injury problem; and they really miss Ben Brown.

Apologies for being way off the mark here.

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7 ESS          vs. BRIS  Docklands     Sun, 24 May 1:10 pm

The Dons, but not certs

In 2013 AND 2014, THE Lions began horribly.  Their first win in 2013 (an unimpressive home win over the Dees) was followed by two more losses before they had a huge upset win over the Bombers.

Then in 2014, they lost the first 5 rounds, beat the Saints narrowly in Wellington, then lost the next 3 and had the bye.

The Lions’ form the week after a big upset win is all over the place like Travis’ goal-

kicking (that’s Travis Hoggboggle, playing for Nar Nar Goon Rovers, of course).

That is one reason that this game will be labelled an extreme variance game.  Their last win in Melbourne was a narrow one over the Blues – not the best recommendation these days – but their win over Port was full of merit.

The other is that it is hard to know how to rate the Bombers.  Were they great on the back of 2 x 6 day breaks with a Perth trip in the middle?  Or are they about to collapse (after a “respectable loss”)?  The 9 day break after a hectic schedule could be a positive –   or a negative.

The Bomber team looks better with Jake Carlisle and Adam Cooney back in – and probably Chappy.

The Bombers by 24 points but EXTREME variance and anything could happen here!

Post Match Review: The Bombers were tipped by 24 points and they won by 58; analysis was a bit off here.  The reason for being off the mark was that the Lions’ win over Port last week was overrated.  Port is just in a trough and Brisbane got them at the right time.

There was also some concern that Essendon was in a bit of a downer, but they proved that theory wrong on Sunday.

Of course, the Lions lost Jack Redden before the game; then, when James Aish, Matthew Leuenberger, Daniel McStay and Darcy Gardiner all had shockers – the Lions had no hope.

The end result was borderline, but not, EXTREME variance (with the end margin being within 6 goals of expectations – just)

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8 MELB      vs.      WBD MCG Sun, 24 May 3:20 pm

Weather: light winds; dry

The Dogs, but not certs

The women’s footy will be played as a curtain raiser to the main game.

Rumour has it that Dom Tyson is playing injured and that Nathan Jones may not be 100% fit.  If this is true, then they get Christian Salem and Chris Dawes both injured last week and not able to contribute much, it explains why the Dees were towelled up so badly.

As well as the physical problems, they also appeared to drop their bundle a bit after being poor vs Freo (1 flag hope), then reasonable vs the Swans (another flag hope).  The third week saw them really flat.

This has happened to them a few times recently (playing 3 flag hopefuls in consecutive weeks) and each time their performance after those 3 games is about on par with expectations.

This seems to be a realistic thing to expect again.

The Dogs have some plusses and minuses.  They were brave in defeat against the undefeated Dockers last weekend – with Lin Jong and Steve Wallis a bit underdone – they should both be better this weekend).   But Freo is probably not at its top right now – taking some of the gloss of the Dog effort.

Hogan coming back for the Dees is a plus and Max Gawn on the 7 man bench is of interest.  Not sure how Jake Spencer is ahead of Gawn and other ruck options.

Dogs by 22 points and not quite certs

Post Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 22 points but the Dees won by 39; analysis was way off here.  The Dees’ performances after playing 3 x flag hopes suggested that they would perform about as expected – but this was too small a sample to form a judgment.

The fact that Neale Daniher cam and spoke to them during the week seems to have given them a boost – it was mentioned by a player immediately after the game.

The late omission of Dom Tyson through injury was seen as a small plus – better a fit player come in rather than him playing injured.

It appears that the Dogs were lulled into a false sense of security after their “meritorious loss” to Freo last weekend.  It appears that they assumed that they just had to turn up to win – WRONG.

Humble apologies for the wrong tip, but the one small glimmer of hope is that the Dogs were not labelled as certs.

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9 PORT      vs.      RICH          ADEL Oval          Sun, 24 May 4:10 pm

Weather: dry; slight breeze

Port to bounce back – maybe

There seems to have been heart to heart team meetings at Port this week.  Maybe this will turn around their form – sometimes a loss like last week is what is needed to snap back into form. “it certainly is” Ollie Wines and Alipate Carlile come back in for Port; and it is Kane Cornes’ 300th and last game – this might provide some motivation of sorts as well.

It is tempting to pick Port as certs, but the temptation will be resisted.  The above factors, plus home ground advantage – plus higher rating for Port tends to point to them wining easily.  And they could do just that.

But the Tigers snapped a 3 game losing streak with a tough, fighting win last weekend.  If could be the type of win that propels them forward (a bit like Port’s similar win over the Roos – which preceded their huge first quarter effort the next week vs Hawthorn).

If this correlation is correct – then the Tigers would be expected to be dominant early – 1Q and maybe a bit of 2Q – and then to hold their lead fairly well (which Port were not able to do very well vs Hawthorn).

If Port were to lead at half time, they would be tipped as certs (in a world where you could tip at the main break).  The Tigers would need to lead early to win.

Port by 25 points and almost (but not) certs in an EXTREME VARIANCE game.

Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 25 points but the Tigers won by 35.  Analysis as a long was off, but it was the best analysis possible for one missing the mark by 57 points.

The reason for this is that the game trend for the Tiers to win was fairly accurately specified above – see the bits in purple above (they were in ordinary black on Friday!).

The EXTREME variance and the chance that the Tigers could over-achieve after the narrow win in R7 was a warning NOT to tip Port as certs. PHEW!

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Best cert: the Pies (never in doubt), then the Cats (never in doubt)

Best Outsider:  the Crows are a definite chance (off the pace a bit), along with the Swans (fell over the line in a thriller) in a week where several outsiders have small hopes

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Pies by more than 23 points (never in doubt); the Roos to win or to lose by less than 30 points (never a hope)

Happy tipping!  This is a tricky week and not one to be overly confident as far as certs are concerned (and there were 3 upsets – including 2 big upsets)