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Round 9, 2015 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R9, 2015

By Penny Dredfell

Added 27 May 2015

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: it was a mixed bag yet again! What a woosie boy Longggey is for not following my lead and tipping the Swans!  That analysis was virtually perfect.

But, once again, the Roos let me down in that they didn’t get even close to the Dockers.  It is unsure what happened here; the Roos played like a team with influenza – falling away dreadfully after QT.  My humble apologies. Maybe the Dockers are still due for a loss and maybe not; this result has muddied the waters.

 

This week, the Dogs vs Giants game will be the focus.  These 2 teams are linked due to the off season changes.  Tom Boyd came to the Dogs, but the Giants snared Ryan Griffen.  During all this time, Brendan McCartney exited as the Bulldogs coach.

Adding to the spice is that they played in the last round of 2014 when the Dogs were favoured to win.  But a depleted Giants’ team got up and won.  It was a “sack the coach” performance by the Western Bulldogs, as it turned out.

This is a quote from the AFL website: Mitch Wallis says he ‘pencilled in’ Saturday’s clash against Greater Western Sydney at the start of the season.  Wallis said the disappointing finish to the 2014 season still burns the group.

It is language showing deep emotions to an unexpected level from the outside public.

Let’s review the recent times that a team out of the finals has an Absolute Shocker in the last round of the season:

Looking at 2012, the Dogs got hammered in the last round by Brisbane.  In R1 the following year, the Dogs hosted the Lions in a match where the Lions were strongly favoured – having just won the NAB Cup.  But the Dogs kicked 6 goals to nil in 1Q and romped home.

Another example was Richmond drawing with Port in Melbourne in the last round of 2012. At that stage Port was a lowly team and the Tigers somewhere in the middle and the Tigers were expected to win by about 6 goals.

They next met in 2013 R7 in Adelaide when Port was 5&1 and the Tigers 3&3. Like the Dogs above, Richmond got off to a flier and was 37 points up at QT.

In the last round of 2011, the Eagles defeated Adelaide by 95 points (60 points bigger win than expected).  Next time they met in 2012 (R17), the Crows were expected to win by 16 points and won by 49.  They kicked 6:5 to 1:2 in 1Q

Last round 2009: the lowly Tigers are beaten in the West by the mid-range Eagles by 80 points; about 30-40 would have been expected.  The meet again in R12, 2010 in Melbourne and both teams are cellar dwellers. A tight tussle is expected, but Tigers win by 49 points – kicking 6:1 to 2:3 in 1Q and then 5:4 to 1:2 in 2Q.

Forgive my wordiness, but there is one last piece to the puzzle. The Giants’ form looks a bit like a parabolic curve.  They were hammered by the Eagles (about 70pts worse than expected), then beat the Hawks (about 35 better than expected), then towelled up Carlton (about 60 better), then beat the Crows (about 15 points better). The curve is heading downwards. The next step is almost definitely less than +15 (which isn’t much help), but likely to be below zero (which is useful).

Putting this into context, a +15 would yield about a 25 point win to the Giants; a zero would be a 10 point win to the Giants; anything worse than -10 would give the Dogs the win.

Look for a quick start by the Dogs and a likely win.