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Rounds 13-18, 2017

Round 13, 2017 (BEGINS THURS 15th June)
All times are Eastern

Round 12 review: Super Tipping: 4 out of 7 (quite good!) for a total of 66 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 4,374 to 2,841 out of 41,600 
Certs: 1 out of 1 – with caution being well rewarded in a week where many favourites bit the dust; the streak now at 3; ranking now dropped from 7,446 to 7,468 (top 31%) – and a chance to progress – especially over those who tipped the Giants as certs

50/50: 2/3 (with Lions and Blues winning – the plusses; and the Hawks losing – in retrospect, this was a stupid one to go for and now at 15/33 =  a poor 45% –  up from a poor 43%

Early thoughts for round 13: this is a VERY tough round – with teams off the bye playing teams 2 games after their bye  – plus Port and the Suns playing their 4th game since their R9 bye; the oddball games are
Roos first up from the bye vs Saints second up from the bye
Tigers first up from the bye vs Swans second up from the bye
Port (R9 bye) at home to Lions second up from the bye
Suns (R9 bye) at home to Blues second up from the bye

Early tips would be Cats, Saints, Tigers, Port, Suns and Dees – with the most confident tips being Port and the Suns, but this is a round similar to R12 in terms of danger!

GAUNTLET continues (officially out but unofficially on a huge run); week 12 tip LIONS won (secondary “safe” tip GWS lost)
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 1,642 to 900/33966 left in the comp

Gauntlet tip this week is likely to be the Suns, but Port would be the best tip if you still have them

 

Round 13 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
WCE v GEEL Subi Thur June – 15 8.10pm CH 7  WCE  4   EXTREME
NMFC v STK Docklands Fri June – 16 7.50pm CH 7  STK  18   EXTREME
RICH v SYD MCG Sat June – 17 1.45pm Fxtl  RICH  14   HIGH
PORT v BRIS Adel Sat June – 17 4.35pm Fxtl  PORT  53   HIGH
GCS v CARL Gld Cst Sat June – 17 7.25pm CH 7  GCS  24   HIGH
WBD v MELB Docklands Sun June – 18 3.20pm Fxtl  WBD  11   EXTREME
Byes: ADEL, COLL, ESS, FREO, GWS, HAW

Games 2 – 6 done with Thursday night team selection unknown

 

WCE v GEEL Subi Thur June – 15 8.10pm CH 7

Almost everyone knows that Kennedy hasn’t made it back for the Eagles; the other snippet is that Lycett has been given another week in the WAFL, while Wellingham also resumes from injury in the WAFL (but the Eagles website mentions him as an emergency – maybe a late change???); the Cats were poor for R6,7 & 8 before excelling in their triplet of home games against quality opposition; the Eagles now have back to back home games and this could be critical for their season; expect them to be UP for them; however, they have been so disappointing that it is hard to get too excited about them; given their very poor lead in to the bye, this may be a help; are the Cats on a huge roll now?  All these questions make it an EXTREME variance game; Eagles by 4 points; a game to avoid as far as tipping goes
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 4 points and they won by 13; analysis was very good in this instance; the Eagles were slight underdogs; they ended up with 1 injury (Nelson) to the Cats 2 (Cockatoo and Scott Selwood), but they probably still deserved to win; refer to the UP mentioned above; it seemed that the Eagles were really UP for this one and then the Cats fought their way back into the game; had they got up, it might have been a steal – with the Eagles winning the SC score by 212; the variance call of EXTREME was correct – just (with an underdog leading by 36 points at HT)

 

NMFC v STK Docklands Fri June – 16 7.50pm CH 7

Expected significant changes: Riewoldt back for the Saints; Wright and McCartin have already been ruled out with injury, whle Steele has been dropped – with Dunstan coming in, while Carlisle will be a pre-game test – likely to be okay and Brown has been given the all-clear;  the Saints were blown away early by the Crows last week and the loss looked really bad; but they had multiple injury niggles to deal with and maybe the effort wasn’t too bad – all things considered; expect them to be better this week – see Penny’s comments below.  The Roos are just average this year and were put to the sword by the Tigers prior to the bye; the Saints should be able to win, but Carlisle is an important player; the tip would be more confident knowing that he would play and do well; Saints by 18 points, but the doubts about them make this an EXTREME variance game
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 18 points and they won by 17; analysis was  pretty good overall; the right team was tipped in a 50/50 type game and the margin was almost perfect; the EXTREME variance call is a marginal one; McMillan was a late withdrawal for the Roos – replaced by Anderson (who only scored 36SC); Riewoldt seemed to struggle with his kicking – something wrong there; Carlisle was okay

 

RICH v SYD MCG Sat June – 17 1.45pm Fxtl

Expected significant changes: Rohan may be back for the Swans; the Tigers won the last game against the Swans at the MCG with a kick after the siren – but then got walloped in R23 by the Swans (14 goals to 1 at HT); the Swans have been very good after a 0-6 start – except for the injury-affected loss to the Hawks; they were really UP for the Dogs game (GF replay mark 2) and played very well; it will be hard for them to replicate that level of intensity – and the Tigers are going pretty well now; the Tigers will be the tip – so long as they are UP for their post bye game; Tigers by 14 points
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 14 points but the Swans won by 9; analysis was not so good; it was looking great when the Tigers led 6 goals to zip, but the Swans gradually got their way back into the game; it is noted that the Swans played the Dogs Thursday night R12 and both teams started poorly in R13; it’s a quite good sign for the Swans overall; they were 0-6 after R6 and are coming good now; and they were 0-6 goals this game and won!!

 

PORT v BRIS Adel Sat June – 17 4.35pm Fxtl

Port was a big disappointment last week after their previous week’s demolition of the Hawks; conversely, the Lions were great off the bye; but the Dockers were shot in that game and Port will have no trouble at home winning big; Wingard will be better for last week’s run; Port by 53 points and the CERTS of the week.
Post match review: Port was tipped by 53 points and they won by 40; analysis was pretty much regulation – Port was the obvious cert of the week and won well enough; Dayne Beams looked a bit slow, according to fanfooty; both teams came back to normality this week after bizarre score lines in R12; “a tiny bit off sharp” said coach Hinkley – talking about the team as a whole; Polec did a hammie late for Port

 

GCS v CARL Gld Cst Sat June – 17 7.25pm CH 7

Expected significant changes: Harbrow remains out under a club suspension; Ah Chee was a late withdrawal last week and is expected back; Alex Silvagni has already been rules out for the Blues
Both teams were good in different ways last week; the Blues toughed it out against a superior opponent and got the win; although the Giants were banged up and desperate for the R13 bye; the Suns had an experienced campaigner down and out, appeared to be heading for a 10 goal + victory late in 3Q over the Hawks at the MCG, but then almost threw it away before steadying for a 16 point win; their win was not so flash against a team that had injuries on the day; but the Suns’ win was a burden-reliever (beating the Hawks on the MCG) and they should easily dispose of the Blues; Suns by 24 points and almost certs; they are the Gauntlet tip (with Port being taken earlier in the year)
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 24 points but the Blues won by 10; analysis was poor, but with an asterisk; the variance call was wrong – that was the worst bit of the analysis; the wrong team as tipped; however, maybe the Suns were a bit stiff; the reason is that the Barlow injury (avoid watching is the suggestion) occurred just when the Suns had hit the lead for the first time; there was a fair break in play and then the Blues were able to re-assert themselves; it is suspected that the loss of Barlow AND the break gave the Blues a chance to refresh somewhat in the humid conditions and the rest is hysteria; Jones kept Lynch goalless (Lynch monstered the Blues in the earlier match) and is a wonderful story – apparently an avid footy fan in real life; hopefully he can continue his good form; anyway, the Blues were good enough to seize on their opportunity and won the SC by 481 – partly due to some dominance and partly style of play – the Blues missed some chances to be further in front in 1H; Gibbs had his best game in years! Ed Curnow tagged Gazza and the other Suns didn’t lift to assist; Saad copped a big knock 2Q but played on

 

WBD v MELB Docklands Sun June – 18 3.20pm Fxtl

Expected significant changes: Gawn or Spencer back for the Dees; Adams out injured for the Dogs, while Smith Morris and Tom Boyd might be back; this will be an EXTREME variance game due to the Melbourne ruck situation – but also big queries on how both teams will bounce back from last week – the Dees were great but it was a highly emotional game; the Dogs would be expected to back up the first up from the bye shocker with a big effort, but the 10 day break is a minus; Dogs by 11 points, but avoid the game if you can
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 11 points but the Dees won by 57; analysis was miles off & the wrong team was tipped; that’s the bad news; the good news is that it was marked as a game to avoid and also an EXTREME variance game; when a slight outsider wins big like this, the EXTREME is a correct call; the comment above (redded up after the game was over) was critical; the Dogs played a GF replay mark 2 last week on Thursday; the Swans were down 6 goals to nil on Saturday on the back of a 9 day break (but fought back to win); the Dogs 

 

CERTS: Port

GAUNTLET:  Suns; Port is the best option if you still have them available
the tips so far were
PORT, CROWS, SWANS, HAWKS, DOCKERS, PIES, TIGERS AND LIONS

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): Saints to win by more than 4 points; Tigers to win by more than 2 points

This round is tough and greatly affected by the byes but don’t expect results as extreme as last week

 

 

Round 13 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 12: very mixed; the Crows did well, but they excelled early and not after half time – in retrospect, the South Australian chatter before last weekend would’ve caused them to start well; the Lions prediction was very good – wish I had been a bit more gung-ho about them; they sure started like a bullet!

Last week’s games were seriously affected by the bye (as opposed to “bye the bye”); the summary was that teams playing their last game before the bye interstate against teams first up from the bye did poorly; EG Giants – who lost to the Blues; Dockers – losing big to the Lions; Port’s loss was not bye related – see Longggey’s summary.

This week we have several cases of teams second up from the bye playing teams first up from the bye. A casual look at the figures from recent years suggests that the teams second up from the bye out-perform against teams first up.  But, drilling down further, it seems that the second up teams that do best are those who perform poorly the week previous. 

Examples of this in recent times are:
Richmond 2015 – lost to the Eagles at the MCG in round 12 (-23 = 23 points worse than expected); round 13 beat the Swans in Sydney next week as underdogs (+40)

Suns 2015 – lost badly to the Blues round 13 by 34 points (-20) then beat the Roos up north by 55 points in round 14 when underdogs (+81)

Swans 2016 – lost first up round 15 to the Dogs at the SCG by 4 points (-18) then beat the Cats the following week at Geelong by 38 points (+56)

On this basis, I am keen on the Saints; but I will wait until after the teams are named before putting in my exact prediction…then didn’t get back to it until after game time!!!

I also note that several media commentators mention that the Melbourne / Collingwood game was the fastest they had seen; I was keen on the Dogs to bounce back from their horror first up after the bye loss, but was concerned about the too long 10 day break between last game and this one; but, given the info on the Melbourne game, I will go for the Dogs  to win by over 2 goals

 

 

Round 14, 2017 (BEGINS THURS 22th June)
All times are Eastern

Round 13 review: Super Tipping: 3 out of 6 (fair in a tough week!) for a total of 69 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 2,841  to 2,391 out of 41,600 
Certs: 1 out of 1 – with caution ONCE MORE being well rewarded in a week where many favourites bit the dust; the streak now at 4; ranking now improved from 7,468 to 7,322 (top 30%)

50/50: 1/2 (with the Saints winning by enough – the plus; but the Tigers running out of puff – the loss; now at 16/35 =  a poor 45% –  no change

Early thoughts for round 14: this is a VERY tough round – with teams off the bye playing teams 2 games after their bye playing teams third up from the bye  – plus Port and the Suns who had a R9 bye; the “uneven” games are
Swans third up from the bye vs Bombers 1st up from bye
Pies 1st up from bye vs Port R9 bye
Lions third up from the bye vs GWS 1st up from bye
Dogs third up from the bye vs  Roos second up from the bye
Eagles second up from the bye vs Dees third up from the bye
Cats second up from the bye vs Freo 1st up from bye

Tigers second up from the bye vs Blues third up from the bye
Saints third up from the bye vs  Suns R9 bye

Early tips would be Crows, Swans, Pies, Giants, Dogs, Eagles, Cats, Tigers and Saints – with Giants and Crows the certs.

GAUNTLET continues (officially AND unofficially out); week 12 tip SUNS lost 
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 900 to 161/33966 left in the comp

For those 161 wonderful performers left, the general public don’t know which teams you have remaining; the Gauntlet tip this week is likely to be the Giants

 

 

Round 14 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
ADEL v HAW Adel Thur June – 22 7.20pm CH 7  ADEL  35   HIGH
SYD v ESS SCG Fri June – 23 7.50pm CH 7  SYD  19   EXTREME
COLL v PORT MCG Sat June – 24 1.45pm Fxtl  COLL  11   HIGH
BRIS v GWS Gabba Sat June – 24 4.35pm Fxtl  GWS  32   EXTREME
WBD v NMFC Docklands Sat June – 24 7.25pm Fxtl  WBD  10   EXTREME
WCE v MELB Subiaco Sat June – 24 7.40pm CH 7  WCE  14   EXTREME
GEEL v FREO Geel Sun June – 25 1.10pm Fxtl  GEEL  30   HIGH
RICH v CARL MCG Sun June – 25 3.20pm CH 7  RICH  11   EXTREME
STK v GCS Docklands Sun June – 25 4.40pm Fxtl  STK  18   HIGH

Yet another round with a Thursday night game; so all work done below without knowing teams line-ups – except for game 1

ADEL v HAW Adel Thur June – 22 7.20pm CH 7

Likely important changes:
Crows: Brown should be available
Hawks: Birchall, Breust and Hodge should all return; Gibson was injured vs the Suns and is unlikely to play
And, of course, the above was all confirmed on Wednesday night.
This was probably planned to be a blockbuster when the fixtures were concocted; now it is 1 at home to 17!!! It looks to be a safe game for the Crows as long as they are properly primed for it. There may be a temptation to treat this game as an extension of their bye. . apart from that, they should win comfortably.  The Hawks look a lot better with their inclusions, but not enough to tip them.  The experts are predicting an eight goal win; not sure about that! Crows by 35 points and just certs
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 35 points but the Hawks won by 14; analysis was poor, but the solution was hinted at above; the Crows main problem was that they saw a 1 vs 17 game at their home ground and treated in like an extended bye; given that risk, the Crows should not have been tipped as certs; SORRY! also, the Crows form has been patchy at best since teams started tagging Sloane; the Hawks had Howe doing this and Sloane scored 80SC; Milera and Brown had injuries of sorts fo rthe Crows

 

SYD v ESS SCG Fri June – 23 7.50pm CH 7

Likely important changes:
SWANS: Tippett won’t be back as he pulled up sore from the NEAFL game last weekend; McVeigh is some chance to return; Jones is out suspended
Bombers: Parish might come back in;

All Essendon games will be labelled as Extreme variance in the short term. It is difficult to assess exactly how they will be after the bye.  Based on their win over Port alone they would be clear favourites. But Port underperformed for a good reason 2 weeks ago. well, a bad reason actually. The question is: will the Bombers overrate themselves based on this win? Meanwhile, the Swans have been tracking along very nicely in recent weeks.  A game to avoid but the Swans by 19 points
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 19 points and they won by 1; analysis was mixed; the correct team was tipped and the EXTREME variance was correct (Bombers going from 24 points down to 19 points up with a few minutes to go and then losing); but the tip looked wrong until the last minute; those who tipped the Swans can count themselves as lucky; meanwhile, the Bombers are typically the Bombers – EXTREME variance most weeks; they managed to kick 7 unanswered and then couldn’t hang on

 

COLL v PORT MCG Sat June – 24 1.45pm Fxtl

Some rain should clear by game time
Likely important changes:
Pies: some or all of Goldsack (test), Reid (likely), Elliott (now ruled out) and Varcoe (now ruled out) could be back
Port: Polec was injured last week and is unlikely to play; Pittard might come back after being dropped as a casualty of the Essendon game; since Port made minced meat of the Hawks (who had a 6 day break and back to back interstate trips), they were awful against Essendon and just so-so in their win over the Lions; the Pies are. likewise, just so-so this year. Although their narrow loss to the Dees was not too bad.  Therefore the home team will be tipped – with not a great deal of confidence; Pies by 11 points
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 11 points but Port won by 31; analysis was very poor; White came in as a late replacement for Broadbent and did very well; maybe it was just Collingwood being very poor after the bye; not that they should have definitely won, but they were a fair way off being competitive; Dermott on SEN reckons the Pies were excelling well in the midfield, but struggling forward and back

 

BRIS v GWS Gabba Sat June – 24 4.35pm Fxtl

Likely important changes:
Lions: the AFL website (fantasy section) mentioned that Rockliff was ill last weekend; he spent more time forward than normal
Giants: Davis was injured against the Blues but is likely to be okay; Lobb should return; there is some doubt on Kelly for this game; it won’t matter if he doesn’t play; the Giants will still be certs and a good GAUNTLET tip if you haven’t tipped them yet.  This is marked as EXTREME variance – more so because of likely big swings in the match – than some hugely unusual score line at the end; Giants certs and by 32 points
Friday – Kelly is out for GWS
Post match review: S\Giants were tipped by 32 points and they won by 60; analysis was just fair; the Giants were correctly tipped as certs, but the variance was not EXTREME as tipped; the “swing” happened late when the Lions won 4Q, but by such a small amount it didn’t push the trend outside the tram lines into EXTREME; the Lions lost Dayne Beams very early; Ward matched up on Zorko and won that match-up easily; with nothing from Beams, little from Zorko and Harwood out injured, they were always going to struggle; the Giants did well first up after throwing a game against Carlton.  Patton was terrific and combined with Cameron for 8 goals; Haynes was first up for many

 

WBD v NMFC Docklands Sat June – 24 7.25pm Fxtl

Likely important changes:
WBD: Jong was injured last week and will be out
Roos: McMillan might come back in
There was a rumour going around that there is disunity at the Dogs; when Terry Wallace heard this on radio on Mondya, he said it explained what he saw watching the debacle against the Dees the previous day; the Dees even rested players late and still won by over 9 goals; this game depends very much on what type of effort and cohesion the Dogs put out; the  games between these teams have often been dour struggles in recent times; the total score of 61 has occurred 4 times in the past 8 matches; 2 of those 61s have been a winning score; this one could be a bit more score-friendly; this is a game to avoid – or to tip at quarter time once you have assessed the mindset of the Dogs; this will be marked as an EXTREME variance game while the uncertainty remains on the Bulldogs; the Roos are good honest triers who lack a bit of top end talent; Dogs by 10 points
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 10 points and they won by 1; analysis was okay; the Dogs always looked winners but ended up falling over the line (as if Ray Gabelich in the 1964 grand final being run down by Usain Bolt); the jury is out on whether the variance was EXTREME; probably just remained as HIGH; more to follow

 

WCE v MELB Subiaco Sat June – 24 7.40pm CH 7

Likely important changes:
Eagles: Nelson was injured last week and will be out; Kennedy and Wellingham are expected to return, but watch the news on Kennedy through the week
Dees: the club website has already pencilled in Gawn to return; Jones (Nathan) is out and Watts is in doubt and both did not play 4Q last weekend; the Dees would be more holy fancied had they not been on 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Perth; this might be enough to get the Eagles over the line; the Eagles have rare back to back home games that don’t involve the Dockers; they appear to have set themselves for 2 wins from these games and then a possible launch at a top 4 spot (which will require some away wins); this is an EXTREME variance game – with a query on the Dees being able to do it in Perth and Gawn first week back; Eagles by 14 points, but not total certs
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 14 points but the Dees won by 3; analysis was not great; the positive was that the Eagles were not tipped as certs; more to follow

 

GEEL v FREO Geel Sun June – 25 1.10pm Fxtl

Some rain possible
Likely important changes:
Cats: Cockatoo and Selwood (Scott) were injured last week and will be out; Hawkins returns from suspension and Blicavs is a likely inclusion after being rested last week
Dockers: Sandilands and Langdon are likely inclusions
The Cats are hot favourites to win this one and should do so. But the problem is the long break between the Thursday night and this Sunday game; it could cause them to be sluggish early; the Dockers are undefeated at Kardinia Park… in finals; and they generally play the ground okay; but the Cats should bounce back from their regular “after the bye” loss; Cats by 30 points and just certs (might’ve avoided them had the winning streak of certs been longer)
Friday – Fyfe is out for Freo; Henderson out for Geelong
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 30 points and they won by 2; analysis was actually quite good here; it is very hard to assess given the injuries to the Cats; but it feels like the experts tipping a ten goal win for Geelong were a bit over-excited and “conned” to a degree by the absolute shocker from Freo before the bye in Brisbane… and the withdraw

 

Whoops!!! somehow the entire data for rounds 15 and 16 went missing – with no backup.  The tips for R16 were:
game 1: Adelaide vs Dogs;  Crows were tipped as certs by 31 points approx and with EXTREME variance
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 31 points approx and they won by 59; analysis was okay; the variance was tipped as EXTREME – which was incorrect (just – with the Crows going from a narrow win to an almost 10 goal victory); naming the Crows as CERTS was correct; the Dogs are now officially GONE; there was some thought that they might have had a kick left in them after being 99% gone last week; the “kick” lasted until half time;  “One of the worst losses in my time” said coach Beveridge; a Friday Night Shocker for the Dogs – made worse by being so close at the main break; Johanissen copped a goal post on his head in 3Q, while the Dogs’ forward line is in trouble (from memory, the preview mentioned this); the Crow’s coach talked about their resolve after a poor 2H last time at home against the Hawks; Sloane scored 91 SC without a hard tag

Game 2: Hawks vs Giants: Giants were tipped by about 9 points but the result was a draw (2nd in a row for the Giants); the analysis was fair (but not perfect as the draw was not tipped), but the upshot of it all was that the Giants are too injured to put teams away; the Hawks are too far off their premiership form to do any damage this year (and have a few injury problems themselves); the variance was wrongly  labelled as  HIGH; the EXTREME variance came about as the Giants went from about 3 goals up to over 3 goals down to 13 points up before throwing away 2 premiership points.  Given the scoring trend, it probable felt like a loss for GWS and a get out of jail (well, from the cell to the jailer’s area) for Hawthorn

Game 3 Collingwood vs Essendon
Post match review: Bombers were tipped by 17 points approx and they won by 37; analysis was excellent here as the Pies eventually ended up narrow favourites; the EXTREME variance call was just correct – with the Bombers being 13 points down and then getting out to a 40 plus points lead before running out 37 point winners; in retrospect, the problem for the tipsters was that they believed the R15 result when the Lions overran Essendon; and maybe the Pies’ loss to the Hawks was slightly overrated; the Pies weren’t helped by Howe being a late withdrawal – replaced by Scharenberg (57 SC); of interest is that the Pies have a midfield full of ball-winners, but had no 30 possession players – compared to 5 for the Bombers

Game 4 Swans vs Suns
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 31 points approx and they won by 67; analysis was fair; the Swans were correctly tipped as certs, but the margin was a fair way off; the EXTREME variance call was incorrect – with the Swans scoring line was just a steady upwards and onwards graph; all this win done without Kennedy – replaced by Robinson (42 SC); in retrospect, Hanley and Ablett going out should’ve led to the Swans being tipped by more

Game 5 Lions vs Cats
Post match review: Cats were tipped by maybe 28 points approx and they won by 85; analysis was just fair; the best bit was tipping the Cats as certs; the Lions certainly came down from their R15 win with a thud; losing ex Cat Walker early didn’t help; while surprise inclusion Dayne Beams only scored 58 SC; it appears that the week on the Gold Coast did the Cats the world of good

Game 6 Saints vs Tigers
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by maybe 8 points approx but the Saints won by 67; analysis was miles off; the game was gone very early – at half time after a 9:5 to a point 2Q; there didn’t seem to be any great reason for this shock and the game should’ve been tipped as an EXTREME variance game; the Richmond coach bristled at the suggestion that the Tigers got ahead of themselves after the Port win; of interest is that the Tigers underperformed by lots this week and Port exceeded expectations; that remains a curio, but Penny commented on it before her report got wiped; Dusty scored 74 SC and Cotchin only 71 after being reported early; they also lost Grimes by HT with injury; cousins Nick (116 SC) and Jack (44 SC but kicked a goal after the siren) were at opposite ends of the spectrum in the Maddie game

Game 7 Roos vs Dockers
Post match review: Roos were tipped by maybe 12 points approx but the Dockers won by 4; analysis was so-so; Goldy had a shot to win it late in the game and missed; the bad news for the Dockers was that Mundy was a late withdrawal – but he was replaced by debutante Nyhuis who scored 78 SC and kicked 4 goals; Fyfe returned to form with 139 SC and Blakely came back from a club suspension to score 129 SC); there was some query on Ziebell, but he scored 100 SC; it ended up being a true flip of the coin game and a similar result to their earlier clash in Perth.

Game 8 Blues vs Dees
Post match review: Dees were tipped by maybe 7 points approx and they won by 8; analysis was just fair; given that the Blues lost Cripps and white in 2Q, they probably deserved to win – and were in it until the last minute;  Penny’s article talks about teams that have 3 x 6 day breaks often underperform once they get the longer break; this looked likely today but the Blue injuries possibly stopped that trend continuing; if you tipped the Blues, you can consider yourself stiff; Hogan (1st game back from op) needed the run

Game 9 Eagles vs Port
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by maybe 19 points approx but Port won by 32; analysis was way off – with the wrong team tipped; but the positive was the EXTREME variance call; this was REALLY EXTREME – with Port going from 4 goals to nil, then going down by 4 goals before winning by 32 points  – bizarre! No sooner did the Eagles kill off their “cannot win in Melbourne” tag that they lost at home; Ryder won clearly in the ruck

 

Round 17, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 16 review: Super Tipping: 6 out of 9 (just fair – blaming Goldstein) for a total of 86 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking declined from 2,640  to 2,702 out of 41,881

Certs: 3 out of 3 (with Swans, Cats and Crows winning easily); streak now at 4 and ranked 7,702 (top 30%)

50/50: 1/2 (with the Bombers winning by enough – winner; and Eagles losing – loser); no idea what the percentage is now but let’s call in a poor 40%

5 players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!

Early thoughts for round 17: the early tips are Saints, Cats, Port, Suns (but check on Gazza’s status),  Swans, Crows, Tigers, Dogs and Eagles; certs being Port and Tigers; some very tough games this week!

 

 

Round 17 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
STK v ESS Docklands Fri July – 14 7.50pm CH 7  STK  8   EXTREME
GEEL v HAW MCG Sat July – 15 1.45pm Fxtl  GEEL  9   EXTREME
PORT v NMFC Adel Sat July – 15 2.10pm Fxtl  PORT  30   HIGH
GCS v COLL Gold Coast Sat July – 15 4.35pm Fxtl  GCS  15   EXTREME
GWS v SYD Spotless – NSW Sat July – 15 7.25pm Fxtl  SYD  3   HIGH
MELB v ADEL Darwin Sat July – 15 7.40pm CH 7  ADEL  9   HIGH
RICH v BRIS Docklands Sun July – 16 1.10pm Fxtl  RICH  42   HIGH
CARL v WBD MCG Sun July – 16 3.20pm CH 7  WBD  15   EXTREME
FREO v WCE Subi Sun July – 16 4.40pm Fxtl  WCE  10   HIGH

 

STK v ESS Docklands Fri July – 14 7.50pm CH 7

The Bombers will continue to be an EXTREME VARIANCE team for now; although their win over Collingwood may be closer to their true form than their loss to the Lions the week prior; the Saints have got on a roll now; they had copped some awful hidings at Subi and they finally got a win (a very unimpressive one) 2 weeks ago; it led to a huge up 1H against the Tigers in a stunning result; it is a bit unknown if they can repeat that, but they could come down a cog or 2 on that and still win; the concern about Essendon is that they could be on a boom / bust cycle;  a lot could depend on how Hickey goes replacing Longer.  Saints by 8 points, but it’s a game to avoid if you can
Post match review: Saints were tipped by 8 points but the Bombers won by 61; analysis was miles off and wrong team was tipped; ouch; but there were some good aspects to the analysis: it was a game to avoid; next, the variance was correctly tipped as EXTREME; but what happened and why?  1. Bombers = EXTREME VARIANCE (expect the unexpected… but if you do, then it’s not unexpected any more!); 2. the Saints had the win in the west and then apparently had a huge build-up for the follow-up match; the next week, the wind was out of their sails (a bit like the Bombers winning over Hawthorn in R1 and then being sure to be up for the R2 match against the then undefeated Lions – then crashing to earth a week later against Carlton in R3); Zac Merrett was off for a 20 minute concussion test the previous week but was back to his best this time

 

GEEL v HAW MCG Sat July – 15 1.45pm Fxtl

This is Luke Hodge’s 300th game and he has just announced his retirement; both teams recently played against GWS and drew; such comparisons are not usually drawn, but the games were similar in nature; the comparison of these slightly favours the Cats due to where the games were played; doubts exist about both reams, however; are the Hawks back?  Maybe – somewhat; the Cats did well when spending a week up north; how will they go back south again?  Will the Hawks peak for any games late in 2017 (assuming they won’t play finals)? Has the Kennett curse returned?  Cats by 9 points in an EXTREME VARIANCE game
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 9 points and they won by 3; analysis was fair; getting the right team and by a modest margin was a plus; but the game trend was not EXTREME; it was a typical Cats / Hawks clash from the Kennett Curse run of Hawthorn losses; the Cats lost Mackie and Selwood (Scott) before the game – replaced by Guthrie (Zac) 46 SC and Simpson 54 SC; watch the game over again if you can; Dangerfield injured early and then moved forward and kicked 5:6; Guthrie (Cam) concussion check which he passed; the Hawks had some concerns as well – with Burgoyne and Sicily hit with injuries; once again Smith had a chance to win it for the Hawks but missed a shot at goal (blame Kennett??)

 

PORT v NMFC Adel Sat July – 15 2.10pm Fxtl

Port lost to the Eagles in R7 the week before going to China; it was a game that they dominated everywhere bar the scoreboard; they made up for it in the return bout when running away; it was a bizarre scoring trend – with Port kicking the first 4 goals, then going down by about 4 goals before drawing away to win by over 5 goals; this followed a shock loss to the Tigers at home; they should have enough to beat the 17th placed Roos at home, but it is unsure if they will absolutely smash them; Broadbent is STILL out for Port; Port by 30 points and just certs
Post match review: Port was tipped by 30 points and they won by 70; analysis was so-so; Port smashed the Roos early and anybody who tipped them as certs had a very easy day’s watching; Port was slightly under-estimated, but the Roos were far worse off in terms of injuries on the day; even so, it is felt that Port would have won comfortably anyway

 

GCS v COLL Gold Coast Sat July – 15 4.35pm Fxtl

Both these coaches are under pressure; there is a review into Rodney Eade, while the Melbourne newspapers are selling fast with stories about Bucks; the uncertainty about both the coaches and the unreliable form of their teams makes this an EXTREME VARIANCE game; the INS for the Suns look better than for Collingwood; the Pies still don’t get Phillips back; Moore and Howe were expected back, but Wells is a surprise; some doubt may exist on if he plays and how well he will play if so; for the Suns, Gazza may perhaps be tested Friday (watch for news) – and their other INS make their midfield look much better (despite doubts on Hall’s disposal skills); suns to win by 15 points but not certs
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 15 points but the Pies won by 15; analysis was better than it looked; Bucks said that they got the luck and they were good enough to take advantage of it; this was played mostly in heavy rain; the Suns lost two players in 1H – Lyons and May; it could be argued that the Suns would’ve won had they had even number; but often teams like Collingwood get the inside run and STILL cannot win!!; so there are mixed feelings about the analysis; the rain made it tough; next – the EXTREME variance – again, mixed feelings; the trend lines were not really EXTREME, but there were significant momentum swings; no problems with Gazza 159 SC; Pendles 83 SC was fair and ended up with a hand injury

GWS v SYD Spotless – NSW Sat July – 15 7.25pm Fxtl

This is tough one to pick, but the key decider here is that the Swans have fewer injuries; the Giants have had two draws in a row (amazing); it could possibly be a technical negative for them, but the main factor is their injuries; they get back Johnson, Greene and Willams who all “trained strongly” through the week, so that is a plus for them; Kelly and  Haynes had minor knocks last week and should be okay; Cameron didn’t train, but the coach assures us that he is okay; for the Swans, Kennedy is back but may still be a test; Jones and Reid copped minor knocks last week but should be okay; the Swans’ recent form is better – on the back of a healthier list; this is tipped to just barely overcome the home ground advantage of the Giants; Swans by 3 points; watch for late changes (the Swans wanted revenge earlier in the season for the 2016 finals belting by the Giants but were too injured to do much back then; they might get their chance now)
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 3 points and they won by 13; analysis was pretty much spot on, but the Swans has a few things go right for them; Cameron was a late withdrawal (see above) – replaced by  Mzungu 28 SC; then de Boer got injured early; was this enough to take a Giants win and make it into a Swans win?  it’s line-ball

MELB v ADEL Darwin Sat July – 15 7.40pm CH 7

The Dees belted the Crows back in R8 in Adelaide when they tagged ; the Crows had just had their first loss of the season in R7 – thrashed by the Roos in Tassie; the Crows haven’t been to Darwin before, but it shouldn’t be a huge problem for them; the Dees looked like losing last week (in their first game after 3 x 6 day breaks) but managed to squeak home after the Blues were 2 men down before half time; the Dees have a few injuries of their own to contend with; the Crows by 9 points, but not an easy game to assess
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 9 points and they won by 46; analysis was not so great; the Crows won like certs, so maybe should have been tipped as such; on top of this, they lost Sloane and Lever; the Dees lost Kent in 3Q; Lynch came back for the Crows and was very good 107 SC and is an important player for the Crows

RICH v BRIS Docklands Sun July – 16 1.10pm Fxtl

Both teams are on a good, shocker, third week pattern; the Tigers had an upset win over Port away and then were blown away early by the Saints; the Lions were fantastic against the Bombers in Melbourne and then awful against the Cats at home last week; the likelihood is that the Tigers are the ones to “believe again”; they will be tipped as certs – assuming last week was a blip of sorts; in any case, the Lions probably won’t be good enough to test if the Tigers are really back in town; Tigers by 42 points and certs of the week
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 42 points and they won by 31; analysis was fairly good; the certs tip was correct and this is a regulation type CERT win; the real query from this game is: does this win put Richmond back on track?  The jury is out!

CARL v WBD MCG Sun July – 16 3.20pm CH 7

the Blues were brave against the Dees last week and now lose Cripps and White (both gone in 1H last week); they play the Dogs who were very good for 1H last week and then got blown away after that; the big doubts are on the Dogs; they maybe can find something after a FNS Friday Night Shocker; if they are going to show anything in 2017, this could possibly be it; but the level of confidence is very low; Dogs by 15 points in an EXTREME VARIANCE game
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 15 points and they won by 20; analysis was pretty good here; Sumner replaced Thomas for the Blues; the injury report looks bad for Carlton but most were late; the Dogs looked to be in control for most of the game after QT, but this was an unconvincing win

FREO v WCE Subi Sun July – 16 4.40pm Fxtl

The Derby is an 8th Eagles vs 12th Dockers affair – with the Dockers a chance to draw level on wins; the Eagles have been slightly better in 2017 and lead the Dockers by 17 percentage points; the INS are both for good teams and Fyfe played his best game for the year last weekend; it will be interesting to see if he can repeat the dose; the Eagles look just slightly better ad will be tipped without much confidence; Eagles by 10 points
Post match review: Eagles were tipped by 10 points and they won by 30; analysis was fair; Redden 114 SC took full advantage of being a late inclusion for Yeo; Fyfe backed up his good form last week with a 126 SC; Hurn won the Ross Glendinning medal with an amazing (for him) 34 possessions and 165 SC

 

CERTS: Tigers and then Port (correct)

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): nothing much to enthuse about, but suns to win by over a goal (incorrect)and Tigers to win by over 40 points (incorrect)

This round is tough work and anyone who tips nine will have done extremely well (correct)

 

Round 17 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 16 (which went missing): I tipped either the Roos to win by over 6 goals or Port to win by over 4 goals (did this on Saturday night on the basis of the Saints / Tigers result in R16; Saints previously just beat the Dockers in Perth (so I was going for Saints way up round 17 and Dockers way down)… and Tigers were thrashed by the Saints in round 16 after beating Port – so going for Port to be way up (and to avenge the round 8 loss which was before the bye when they generally dominated stats)! so Port got me out of trouble; my other tip was based on the Dees playing 4 games with 3 x 6 day breaks… then a longer break (9 days) to the Blues game; teams in this situation often have such a HUGE focus on the 3x6DB, that they can tend to underperform the following week – and often start poorly; so I tipped the Blues to win the first term AND the match; I got it half right, but I will call this a moral victory; the Blues would have won – I reckon – had it not been for injuries… but, alas, they lost by 8 points.

This week is a tough week for technical analysis, but I will combine 2 trends; given that the Blues were well placed to beat the Dees last week (and almost did it), I expect that this week will be tougher for them; they got the benefit of catching the Dees at a good time (as seen by the good first term break they got) but still couldn’t win (but refer to injuries above); now they face a Dogs team that had a FNS (Friday Night Shocker) which killed off their finals hopes; it’s the sort of thing that can cause a team to fire up; looking at the other teams to win an “early flag (Bombers 1993 and Hawks 2008) – they both struggled the following year like the Dogs and missed finals; but they each had a blip up mid to late season after a shocker; but the evidence is sketchy, because one of them had 2 absolute shockers in a row (Essendon rounds 19 and 20 in 1994); I just like the double-whammy possibility of this trend, but I am not overly confident because of concerns about the Dogs and whether they have a pulse left or not.  The Dogs to win by over 3 goals.

The next tip is; the Swans were flogged by the Giants in the 2016 finals series and wanted revenge; they flew out of the blocks in round 5 but very quickly ran out of puff and were easily overrun by the Giants; the Swans problem back then was injuries to key players; I expect the will to get revenge to be still strong and they might be able to finish what they started (IE fly out of the blocks but go all the way); I am tipping them to lead at each change and win – helped on by injuries to the Giants and a generally unsettled GWS team

 

Round 18, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 17 review: Super Tipping: 7 out of 9 (okay) for a total of 93 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 2,702 to 2,246 out of 41,924

Certs: 2 out of 2 (with Port and Tigers winning easily); streak now at 6 and ranked 7,843 (down from 7,702) (top 30%)

50/50: 0/2 (with the Suns losing and Tigers NOT winning by enough); 

5 players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!

Early thoughts for round 18: the early tips are Crows, Bombers,  Port, Dogs,  Swans, Hawks, GWS, Pies and Blues; certs being Bombers; big danger games here for some favourites and a few EXTREME variance games look likely – eg Collingwood vs Eagles

 

Round 18 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
ADEL v GEEL Adel Fri July – 21 7.50pm CH 7 ADEL 11 EXTREME
ESS v NMFC Docklands Sat July – 22 1.45pm Fxtl ESS 21 EXTREME
MELB v PORT MCG Sat July – 22 2.10pm Fxtl PORT 5 HIGH
WBD v GCS Cazalys (Cairns) Sat July – 22 4.35pm Fxtl WBD 17 EXTREME
SYD v STK SCG Sat July – 22 7.25pm CH 7 SYD 14 EXTREME
FREO v HAW Subi Sat July – 22 7.40pm Fxtl FREO 9 HIGH
RICH v GWS MCG Sun July – 23 1.10pm Fxtl RICH 2 HIGH
COLL v WCE Docklands Sun July – 23 3.20pm CH 7  COLL  4 EXTREME
BRIS v CARL Gabba Sun July – 23 4.40pm Fxtl  CARL  3 EXTREME

 

ADEL v GEEL Adel Fri July – 21 7.50pm CH 7

Mackie was supposed to come back in for the Cats but hasn’t been named; Dangerfield has been named but will be tested late; Scott Selwood is in but there may be a small doubt on him; the Crows seem confident that Sloane will play; Jenkins had food poisoning earlier in the week and is apparently okay, but watch both teams for any late changes; this is a tough game to pick, but the Crows will get the nod; they come back from Darwin – a week after the Cats coming back from a week on the Gold Coast leading up to the Lions game.  The Crows get an 8 day break then a 6 day break compared to 7 & 6 for the Cats; this is an EXTREME variance game due to the doubts on players – also that the Cats have done well against the Crows recently but the Crows come in with better form and slightly fewer injuries; Crows by 11 points
Post match review: Crows were tipped by 11 points and they won by 21; analysis was reasonable – the right team was tipped and the margin tipped was okay; those in doubt – Crows Sloane (169 SC)  was terrific; Jenkins was fair (59 SC) and Danger scored 142 SC; Scott Selwood struggled first up from injury with 46 SC; the hidden difference was that the Cats had 4 players under 40 SC (Motlop, Menzel, Zac Guthrie and Parsons) to 1 for the Crows (Knight – who copped an injury and was a purely defensive tagger on Joel Selwood)); the Cats had injuries to Blicavs and Bews, but both contributed a lot; Brad Crouch played the last quarter and a bit with a facial fracture

ESS v NMFC Docklands Sat July – 22 1.45pm Fxtl

This loomed as a danger game early in the week – with the Bombers having a huge Friday night win – playing the lowly Roos before a key game next week against the reigning premiers; it still may be, but the Roos have lost 3 players to injury plus Goldstein and Thomas dropped; Daw has been named in the ruck; Preuss is still out injured; this alone is enough to make it an EXTREME variance game; Waite comes back in, while Larkey debuts as a 198cm forward; most will tip the Bombers as certs, but not this website; but the Bombers are the tip by 21 points
Post match review: Dons were tipped by 21 points and they won by 27; analysis was pretty good; some were tipping the Bombers by heaps, but it appears that they struggled a bit to come up for this “easy kill”; as if the Roos were inexperienced enough already, they lost Tarrant in the warm-up; the Roos mids were “out on their feet” late in the contest; the Daw experiment in the ruck didn’t quite work (Goldy dropped and Preuss injured); the Bombers just did enough to win; the EXTREME variance call was marginal – the Bombers going from over 2 goals down to over 5 goals up – right on the cusp of EXTREME

MELB v PORT MCG Sat July – 22 2.10pm Fxtl

The Dees have made big changes here – losing Kent to injury (he is probably only a fringe player), Vince suspended and dropping three; they regain Viney (may not be 100%), Salem, Tyson, Watts and Trengove; it looks very good on paper; Port has been up for a while now and demolished the Roos – who has injury troubles on the day; the changes at Melbourne was almost enough to make this an extreme variance game, but it will be listed as high; the other issue is Paddy Ryder’s ankle; Port is confident he will play and they have an open to all training session on Friday; so check out the news on afl.com.au
One of many tough games to tip, but Port’s stability will just have them in front; Port by 5 points
Post match review: Port was tipped by 5 points but the Dees won by 23; analysis was very poor; the worst thing here was not tipping a loser; it was failing to mark this as an EXTREME variance game; with so many INs for the Dees back from injury, it was always a big chance to be EXTREME; and with the Dees 7 goals to zip up in 2Q, the EXTREME was confirmed; the INS for the Dees went as follows: Tyson 82 SC; Watts 43; Viney 80, Sales 84 and Trengove 54; a mixed bag but NO huge failure in that list; hogan looks back to top form now; Gawn had a minor rolled ankle but managed to do reasonably okay late;  the injuries on the day evened themselves out and Ryder’s ankle was okay, but he was slow to start and did well with Gawn restricted; this continues Port’s struggles against top 8 teams; 

WBD v GCS Cazalys (Cairns) Sat July – 22 4.35pm Fxtl

This game is to be played in Cairns in warm and dry conditions; the Dogs looked like they were going to zoom straight past the Blues and pull way for a big win last week; but, even with Carlton copping a few injuries late, they still couldn’t run away with it; it’s a bit hard to tell if this will be the circuit breaker win for them to propel them into good form or not; but to make things east, the Suns have reverted to the pattern of copping injuries; they lose Gazza, Lyons and the very important May this week; last week they lost to the Pies in rainy conditions; they may possibly still be suffering from the conditions, but it is hard to tell; Cloke is an emergency for this game – might be back next week; Matthew Boyd didn’t make it back from injury; lack of confidence in both teams will make this an EXTREME variance game, but the Dogs will be tipped by 17 points, but not as certs; AMENDED Friday 6.10pm; heard from Terry Wallace on SEN that a couple of Suns players may be sore or out; will make it Dogs by 29 points and certs
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 29 points and they won by 54; analysis was reasonably good and the Dogs were correctly tipped as CERTS

SYD v STK SCG Sat July – 22 7.25pm CH 7

This looks like an easy game to pick and the Swans will certainly be tipped; but this game falls in between their big game against the Giants and a Friday night game versus Hawthorn (not that the Hawks are a flag chance, but the Swans lost to Hawthorn earlier in Syndey and they lost in a GF as well); meanwhile the Saints have had a FNS (Friday Night Shocker) in their huge loss to the Dons; they get back Longer from injury to replace Hickey among a raft of changes – and the team looks better on paper this week; there is also the fact that the Giants are struggling through injuries and that the win by the Swans needs to be seen in that light; this means that the Swans will not be tipped as certs; Swans by 14 points in an EXTREME variance game
Post match review: Dons were tipped by 14 points and they won by 42; analysis was barely passable; the variance was errantly labelled EXTREME – with the Swans just grinding down St Kilda; it seems that the Saints have a mental block against the Swans;

FREO v HAW Subi Sat July – 22 7.40pm Fxtl

Pure form suggests that the Hawks should be selected; but then there is the home state advantage; and this game is nestled between Hodge’s 300th (a big game against Geelong) and a Friday night Swans game; and, although it is Clarkson’s 300th coaching game, it might not have the same impact as doing it for Hodge; the other factor is the revenge factor – this is the first time that they have played in the West since the 2015 prelim; the Dockers have gone downhill since then, but will see this as a chance to win – not having got close in their 2 games since that day; Penny may be writing about this tomorrow; Dockers by 9 points
Post match review: Dockers were tipped by 9 points but the Hawks won by 52; analysis was terrible; rather than revenge, it seemed like it was a return of a nightmare for the Dockers; the Hawks dominated from start to finish

RICH v GWS MCG Sun July – 23 1.10pm Fxtl

The non-selection here is that Cameron is still out for the Giants; this match looks very even, but the Tigers will just be given the nod due to the home ground and longer injury list of the Gaints; Tigers by 2 points
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 2 points and they won by 19; analysis was pretty good; Miles was a late withdrawal for Richmond – replaced by Corey Ellis (37 SC); Shiel (89 SC) played with various injuries;

COLL v WCE Docklands Sun July – 23 3.20pm CH 7

This is a tough one to tip; the Pies snapped a 4 game losing streak last week against the Suns in heavy rain at times; Gold Coast copped 2 early injuries and this may have helped Collingwood win; the victory helped take the pressure of Bucks; the question is – was the win too late in the season to precipitate an upwards blip for the Pies; if yes, then the Pies would be tipped with some confidence; looking at the team, the stand-out thing is the injury to Pendles; but they have done well in getting some key players back into the team in recent weeks (Wells. Howe, Moore, Varcoe, Reid) and they should be all ready to fire now…. unless they are “rain affected” from last week.  The Eagles play Docklands better than most away grounds – having won there twice already in 2017;
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 4 points and they won by 8; analysis was very good; the variance was borderline EXTREME (as tipped above in the table – and probably just in the EXTREME range; the concern was that, after Gold Coast capitulated late against the Dogs, that both Collingwood and the Suns might have suffered from playing in the rain; however, the Pies seemed to be okay; their struggles mid-game was more to do with losing Moore and Varcoe in that time; the Eagles has more minor injuries to Shuey and McGovern – who still managed to contribute well; it seems that the Eagles were cruising to a win early in 4Q, but maybe they tried to save the game; there were some huge efforts by the Pies and this was their best win for the year; Grundy (125 SC) was huge in the contest

BRIS v CARL Gabba Sun July – 23 4.40pm Fxtl

This is another tough one to tip in a tough round; the Lions have been good in Melbourne lately but poor at home; the Blues have been highly competitive of late – and injuries may have cost them a bit against the Dogs last week – but doubt that it was the difference; the Dogs were all primed up to do well after an absolute shocker of a 2H the previous week against the Crows, so it was a good effort by Carlton in that sense; their injuries are mainly to fringe players – and they get back a few handy ones; Rockliff has been below his best since returning from injury; if he could fire, it would help the Lions a lot; the Blues just in a game to avoid – maybe a round to avoid
Post match review: Blues were tipped by 3 points but the Lions won by 30; analysis was not that great; the wrong team was tipped, but the plus was the EXTREME variance; the Lions took care of this by half time; more to come

CERTS: According to the above, there ARE no CERTS this week; therefore none will be tipped; if you absolutely must, go for the Bombers maybe; correction; scratch Bombers and put in Dogs as CERTS (correct)

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): not a great week to do this, but Dockers to win (never a hope) and the Tigers to win or to lose by less than 3 points (correct)

 

This round is the tough all season

 

Round 18 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 17 : maybe my best result for the year – although the Dogs were only just going and fell over the 3 goal line; the Swans did the right thing by me for a positive result.

This week I am going for the Dockers; see Longggey’s comments above; this is their revenge match; and it will mean SO much more to them than to the Hawks; that 2015 prelim game was the end for Fremantle but the Hawks, of course, went on to win the flag; their memory of 2015 will be holding up the cup – with scarcely a thought given to prelim day; the Dockers, of course, would have loved revenge in 2016, but they were totally down and out and the game was played in Tassie; this will feel much different and generally the Dockers have done well when playing at Subi the week after a Derby; if my theory holds up, then the Dockers should get off to a flier; I am tipping them to be at least 2 goals up at quarter time and to lead at each change (a bit similar to the Swans last week); and I’m tipping Fyfe to get 110+ SC points as well.