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Rounds 19-23, 2017

Round 19, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 18 review: Super Tipping: 6 out of 9 (okay) for a total of 99 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 2,246 to 1,975 out of 41,924

Certs: 1 out of 1 (with the Dogs winning easily); streak now at 7 and ranked 6,041 (improved from 7,843) (top 23%)

50/50: 1/2 (with the WIN being the Tigers winning and the loss was the Dockers losing)

4 players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!

Early thoughts for round 19: the early tips are  Swans, Dees, Giants, Port, Tigers, Cats, Bombers, Crows and Eagles; certs being Crows and Tigers; a small danger game is Eagles at home to the Lions and Freo some minuscule chance to beat the Giants; maybe the Saints are a small chance to upset Port; overall, it looks to be an easier week than R18

 

 

Round 19 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
HAW v SYD MCG Fri July – 28 7.50pm CH 7  SYD  13  HIGH
NMFC v MELB Hobart Sat July – 29 1.45pm Fxtl  MELB  19  EXTREME
GWS v FREO Spotless, SYD Sat July – 29 2.10pm Fxtl  GWS  22  EXTREME
PORT v STK Adel Sat July – 29 4.35pm Fxtl  PORT  16  HIGH
GCS v RICH Gold Coast Sat July – 29 7.25pm Fxtl  RICH  17  HIGH
CARL v GEEL Docklands Sat July – 29 7.25pm CH 7  GEEL  26  HIGH
WBD v ESS Docklands Sun July – 30 1.10pm Fxtl  ESS  12  EXTREME
COLL v ADEL MCG Sun July – 30 3.20pm CH 7  ADEL  38  HIGH
WCE v BRIS Subi Sun July – 30 4.40pm Fxtl  WCE  35  HIGH

 

HAW v SYD MCG Fri July – 28 7.50pm CH 7

This game was earmarked as a Friday night blockbuster when the fixture was done; after round 6, the teams had won a combined total of 1 game; looked like being a fizzer!!! Now it’s a blockbuster again – although the Hawks are only “mathematical” to make the finals; the Swans have lost just 1 game in the past 11 games – to the Hawks in Sydney; that night the Swans lost two players early in the piece (Lloyd and Reid), got well behind and couldn’t quite reel in the Hawks; these teams have lost their home games for the past 5 matches – with all games being within 14 point margins bar for a blowout win by the Hawks in late 2015; both teams have been up for a while – the Swans to play finals and the Hawks to recover from a shocker of a start to the year; the loss to the Cats and the draw with GWS since the bye have all but killed off finals for Hawthorn; with both teams being UP for a fair while, one of them is bound to come unstuck sooner or later.  But, as this is a Friday night, it is expected that they both will come to the match with intensity; having said that, that chances for one of them to come unstuck big time is a possibility; The Hawks have had back to back 300th celebrations – Hodge’s 300 games in R17 and coach Clarkson’s 300th game in R18; can they be up to knock over a team that they have played 2 grand finals against in recent years?  If so, they will be doing it on a 6 day break from a night game in Perth;  Papley had a sore back last week; Swans by 13 points
Post March Review: Swans were tipped by 13 points but the Hawks won by 6 points; analysis was not that great, but for “different” reasons; the tip wasn’t too bad, but the variance call was wrong; it was probably always going to be a close, tough struggle; the Swans had lots of bad luck; they lost Lloyd and Rohan before the game (replaced by Robinson 51 SC and Foote 19 SC); they also had Kennedy, Naismith and Sinclair restricted during the game; the much anticipated head to head clash between Kennedy (ex Hawk) and Mitchell (ex Swan) yielded 14 possessions and 50 SC for Kennedy, while Mitchell had 26 possessions and 98 SC; the Hawks lost Hardwick by half time.

NMFC v MELB Hobart Sat July – 29 1.45pm Fxtl

The Roos have a huge winning run of 16 going against the Dees, but they themselves have lost 7 on the trot; it makes for an EXTREME variance game; keep an ear open for news on Gawn’s ankle; he struggled a bit with it last week; Tom McDonald was sore last week; the Roos team looks better this weekend with Ziebell, Tarrant and Preuss coming back in (still no Goldy); Dees by 19 points but not certs
Post March Review: Dees were tipped by 19 points but the Roos won by 4 points; analysis was not great; the EXTREME variance cal was incorrect – with the swings due more to the wind more than anything else; Gawn and Tom McDonald were fine; both teams had numberous injury niggles and it is difficult to determine who was worse off; the huge head to head winning run (now up to 17) may have helped somewhat

GWS v FREO Spotless, SYD Sat July – 29 2.10pm Fxtl

The Giants really should win this, but they don’t do too well without Greene – who got a big tick on SEN from Glen Luff; they also lose Mummy; Freo have injury concerns of their own, but get back Ryan and Cox from club suspension; due to their long injury list, they won’t be tipped as certs; Shiel has been named but was considered doubtful through the week; but Giants by 22 points in an EXTREME variance game
Post March Review: Giants were tipped by 22 points and they won by 12 points; analysis was very good; most tipsters had the Giants winning by over 6 goals; the EXTREME variance call was also correct – with several lead-changing momentum swings

PORT v STK Adel Sat July – 29 4.35pm Fxtl

Both teams struggled last week and the Saints are on the road for the second consecutive week; maybe Longer wasn’t 100% last week for the Saints; Hombsch and Pittard back for Port looks good; Port by 16 points but not certs as some have tipped
Post March Review: Port was tipped by 16 points and they won by 2 points; analysis was pretty good; again, most had Port winning by 6 goals – and had them as absolute certs; this was not the win of a cert!!

GCS v RICH Gold Coast Sat July – 29 7.25pm Fxtl

One concern for the Tiger sis that this is a late game at the Gold Coast; they seem to have been playing 4.35pm games a lot; this one has the chance of becoming very humid late; check the ins and outs here; they are important (Ablett in – should be okay; May in – was in some doubt earlier in the week; Tigers Houli and Miles back; Riewoldt and Prestia both out injured); Richmond may have got the Giants at a good time last weekend; Tigers by 17 points but not certs;
Post March Review: Tigers were tipped by 17 points and they won by 33 points; analysis was okay here; the margin was extended due to numerous injuries to the Suns; on top of that, Gazza was a late withdrawal with his hammie (many said he had a hammie that only came good for home games!)

CARL v GEEL Docklands Sat July – 29 7.25pm CH 7

Gibbs was tagged by Rockliff last week and only got 8 touches; a big help towards a Lions win; the temptation to play Scott Selwood on Gibbs will surely be irresistible now; but can Gibbs lift – or get help from his team mates; Murphy was sore last week; Motlop and Menzel have apparently been playing sore / injured; so the changes may not be as big a minus as it appears for the Cats;  Geelong by 26 points and just certs
Post March Review: Cats were tipped by 26 points and they won by 65 points; analysis was fair; the certs tip was correct; the Blues struggled after a bright start; the variance may have been EXTREME, but it was a close call; the Blues struggled mid game and were totally gone when Kreuzer went off injured

WBD v ESS Docklands Sun July – 30 1.10pm Fxtl

The Dons will continue to be labelled as EXTREME variance, but they will be tipped with a pinch of confidence here; the Dogs have yet to convince the critics that they are back – despite a good final term last week; the Dons were a bit ordinary early, but it is assume that it was because the game was nestled between a huge Friday night game and a match against the reigning premiers; they should be back to their best now; but the Dogs forward line looks more potent; still it is the Bombers by 12 points
Post March Review: Bombers were tipped by 12 points but the Dogs won by 30 points; analysis was not great; the wrong team was tipped and the Dogs ran away late; the variance call of EXTREME was correct

COLL v ADEL MCG Sun July – 30 3.20pm CH 7

See Penny’s commnets below; the Pies were great late last week; such a win under stress with injuries is rarely repeated the following week; the Crows – so long as they didn’t relax too much after last Friday night’s win – will be far too good here; Crows by 38 points and certs
Post March Review: Crows were tipped by 38 points but the game was a draw; analysis was truly awful; sorry!! It appears that the Crows were SO happy with their Friday night win the previous week that they went on a holiday; they certainly looked way off the pace – with Bruce on TV noting that Jenkins couldn’t hold a mark early; the Pies, however, were extremely good early and the Crows coach said that the Pies deserved to win; the variance call was also wrong – with this being an obvious EXTREME variance game (with a huge momentum swing)

WCE v BRIS Subi Sun July – 30 4.40pm Fxtl

The Eagles were awful last week and this was going to be tipped as a danger game; but the suspension of Zorko and the managed states of Hipwood, Berry and McLuggage – plus the return of a fresh Mitchell for the Eagles – makes it hard to tip against them; this is more to do with doubts on the Lions ability than the Eagles determination to bounce back after a shocker; Eagles by 35 and just certs; on Friday, Vardy out for Eagles and McStay out for the Lions; leave tings as they are
Post March Review: Eagles were tipped by 35 points and they won by 68 points; analysis was not that great; most tipsters were correctly much more bullish; it seems that the Lions – as well as giving sore players a week off – struggled to maintain the intensity like they did the previous week

CERTS: Crows (incorrect), Cats (correct) and Eagles (correct)

50/50 (where the experts have got it wrong): Dockers to win or to get within 36 points (correct); Saints to win or to get within 33 points (correct); Bombers to win by over 7 points (correct); Crows to win by over 21 points (correct)

Happy tipping; if you are within striking range of an end of year prize, this is not the round go for a bizarre selection; there are heaps of close games coming up in the final 4 rounds

 

Round 19 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 18 : worst analysis ever; Dockers never in it and Fyfe was okay, but not brilliant.

This week I am going back to the Pies / Eagles game; the Pies won bravely from 4 goals down early in the last term; such brave wins are often followed by the winning team underperforming the following week AND the beaten team doing the same; the beaten team – Eagles – not overly keen on their game as the changes to both the Eagles and Lions have muddied the waters; if I were to tip anything, it would be Lions to get within 7 goals; but that’s just a passing thought; the real one is Collingwood to struggle; one concern is that the Crows have a 9 day break after a 1 vs 2 Friday night game; I reckon this fear may be offset by the Crows having a chance to play on the MCG; I’m tipping the Crows to win by over 5 goals

 

Round 20, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 19 review: Super Tipping: 6 out of 9 (jut fair – including 1 for the draw) for a total of 105 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking slipped from 1,975 to 2,397 out of 41,924

Certs: 2 out of 3 (with the Cats winning; then the Crows drawing – and footytips.com.au are VERY UNPOPULAR for not allowing a draw; so streak wiped to zero, then up to 1 with the Eagles winning); streak now at 1 and ranked 3,340 (improved from 6,041 – for getting the streak up to 8) (top 13%)

50/50: 2/4 (with the WINS being the Saints and the Dockers getting close in their games as big outsiders; but the losers being Essendon for losing and Crows not winning)

4 players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!

Early thoughts for round 20: the early tips are  Cats, Giants, Bombers, Dogs, Pies, Dockers, Saints & Crows; the Tigers / Hawks game is a toss-up – maybe Hawks; certs are hard to find but maybe the Bombers; ; this is a tough week but a good week to make ground in the tipping comps; in the 50/50 games, quite keen on the Cats and Saints at this early stage; the Giants are well fancied, but they face a danger game against the Dees – although the Dees are on the road for the second week running.

 

 

 

Round 20 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
GEEL v SYD Geel Fri Aug – 4 7.50pm CH 7  SYD  8  HIGH
GWS v MELB Canberra Sat Aug – 5 1.45pm Fxtl  MELB  9  HIGH
ESS v CARL MCG Sat Aug – 5 2.10pm Fxtl  ESS  33  EXTREME
BRIS v WBD Gabba Sat Aug – 5 4.35pm Fxtl  WBD  4  EXTREME
NMFC v COLL Docklands Sat Aug – 5 7.25pm CH 7  COLL  9  EXTREME
FREO v GCS Subi Sat Aug – 5 7.40pm Fxtl  FREO  32  HIGH
STK v WCE Docklands Sun Aug – 6 1.10pm Fxtl  STK  7  HIGH
RICH v HAW, MCG Sun Aug – 6 3.20pm CH 7  HAW  1  EXTREME
ADEL v PORT Adel Sun Aug – 6 4.40pm Fxtl  ADEL  14  HIGH

 

GEEL v SYD Geel Fri Aug – 4 7.50pm CH 7

Showers are forecast!!
This is game 1 and just as well; there are a number of Swans to keep an eye on , but the Cats now have a fairly long injury list and also lose Dangerfield for 1 week, lose Cockatoo and also don’t get back Menzel and Motlop; this is the Swans 2nd week on the road to Victoria and the Swans had a 6 then 7 day break compared to the Cats 8 then 6; Lloyd and Rohan had “strong weeks on the track”, so they should be fine for the Swans; the Cats have an injury quotient of 23 compared to 8 for the Swans; this should be enough to give the Swans the win; Swans by 8 points but not certs
Post March Review: Swans were tipped by 8 points and they won by 46 points; analysis was mixed; the right team was tipped (good), but the variance call was wrong; it was a repeat of the prelim last year – with the Swans jumping out to a huge lead early and never looking back; J Selwood got injured, ut that didn’t explain the difference; the above comments about forwards missing helps explain it as well

GWS v MELB Canberra Sat Aug – 5 1.45pm Fxtl

Cold and breezy in the capital.
These teams haven’t played since R1 in 2016 when the Dees scored a narrow upset win; this time there are conflicting factors in the analysis; the Dees have to travel for the second week running (but only to Hobart and Canberra – not too taxing); but the Giants have a long injury list – but got back Coniglio last week; there may be some query on how he comes up second up in the AFL (although he has a few NEAFL games before that); Deledio comes in after 2 NEAFL games; Stevie J was listed as “1 week” the same day he got selected; so maybe a doubt on him; the Dees get back Jones (Nathan) and Vince and these 2 will be more match hardened; Dees by 9 pointsPost March Review: Swans were tipped by 8 points but the Roos won by 4 points; analysis was 

 

ESS v CARL MCG Sat Aug – 5 2.10pm Fxtl

Showers should clear by game time
The Blues were awful early 2 weeks ago at the Gabba and then then awful after QT last week; they had excuses against the Cats; their outs (all injured) were all under 50 Sc points; and Kreuzer was concussed in 3Q; he has been named but needs to pass a concussion test; Buckley and Byrne were given some chance to return but haven’t made it back; even with Kreuzer, the Blues look too injured to compete; the Dons, however, continue to be hard to predict;  they are expected to bounce back hard here and win well; bombers by 33 points and certs (just); as always, the Essendon games are EXTREME variance
Post March Review: Bombers were tipped by 33 points and they won by 8 points; analysis was mixed again; the tip was correct and the “cert” call turned out to be correct, but FAR TOO STRESSFUL!!!!!  One should be sitting back enjoying life with 10 minutes to go – not the case here if you had the Dons as CERTS; the EXTREME variance call turned out to be a marginal one; maybe say “YES” as it was typical of the Bombers year – with good and horrible bits all thrown in; Fantasia got hurt and Watson struggled; Kreuzer was very good despite his head knock last weekend; the key here was that this was the easy kill game in between VITAL games; this one almost became vital itself (same as Dogs game)

BRIS v WBD Gabba Sat Aug – 5 4.35pm Fxtl

The Lions appear to have set themselves for this – resting some young players rather than taking them to Perth last weekend; and they get Zorko back from injury as well; the Dogs have hit a bit of form, but it’s a bit too early to tell if they are “back”;  despite their good win last week over the Dons, this looms as a danger game at the Gabba; Dogs by 4 points  in an EXTREME variance clash
Post March Review: Dogs were tipped by 4 points and they won by 14 points; analysis was excellent; many were far more bullish about the Dogs and had them winning by 6 goals of more; the best bit of the tip was the EXTREME variance call; Lions went from in front to 5 goals down to in front then down then up then lose; the Dogs lost Johannisen – replaced by Murphy (who was probably up there for boundary coaching duties) – 69 SC; and then lsot Wood early; the Lions lost Cox early and Gardiner copped a knock; the key here was that this was the easy kill game in between VITAL games; this one almost became vital itself

NMFC v COLL Docklands Sat Aug – 5 7.25pm CH 7

The Pies looked winners most of the game last week but the Crows pulled a draw out of the hat; the Magpies will be the ones feeling like losers out of this and are expected to atone by winning this one; but the Roos have been better lately; Goldy comes back in; a good idea, because Preuss is in some doubt;  the lack of confidence in both teams makes this an EXTREME variance encounter; Pies by 9 points
Post March Review: Dogs were tipped by 9 points and they won by 54 points; analysis was fair; the right team was tipped and the variance call was correct – with the Pies romping away; Goldy was fair with 88 SC without being a star; the injuries evened themselves out pretty much; Cunnington might get reported and gave away frees on his was to 67 SC; the Roos needed more from him to be a chance; Wells got injured against his old team and didn’t see much action

FREO v GCS Subi Sat Aug – 5 7.40pm Fxtl

The Suns get back Gazza and May, but lose 5 through injury – it’s probably too many for team balance; and Sexton needs to pass concussion testing and he could be the 6th injury out; the Dockers have a few injury problems as well, but are not as disrupted currently as the Suns; Dockers by 32 points and certs just
Post March Review: Dockers were tipped by 32 points and they won by 33 points; analysis was spot on; 1 point off and variance correct; the Dockers were always going to be cert sin this one – especially after Swallow was a late out for the Suns (replaced by Grant 64 SC); Gazza back from hammy troubles was okay with 90 SC but Neale 156 and Fyfe 140 were way out in front

STK v WCE Docklands Sun Aug – 6 1.10pm Fxtl

the Saints will feel cheated last week – leading by 10 points in the last minute and losing; they should atone here by beating the Eagles; West Coast play Docklands okay comparatively, but should win this; Riewoldt should be okay after a rest and announcing his upcoming retirement; Shuey may be in some small dount for the Eagles; Saints by  7 points
Post March Review: Saints were tipped by 7 points and they won by 8 points; analysis was very good; Riewoldt looked to be struggling at times – like he was 10 year solder than he really is; other than that, the injuries were about even – maybe the Saints slightly got the raw end of the pineapple but were still able to win – albeit coming from behind in 4Q; Longer 123 Sc took advantage of the ruck problems of the Eagles

RICH v HAW, MCG Sun Aug – 6 3.20pm CH 7

Forecast is for windy and showers
This is a game to avoid and the hardest to assess; the Hawks have been very good recently and are back – sort of; and hanging on to finals hopes – just; and few injuries recently, but lose Hodge to suspension; the Tigers look likely to play finals – but without a dead cert win in their last four games (Hawks, Cats, Dockers away and Saints); Riewoldt misses for a second week and last week they got away with a short forward line against an injury-riddled Suns team; this may be harder, but rain could assist somewhat; the Hawks have yet another milestone game (Roughie 250) and they have done well in recent such games; there is a feeling that the Hawthorn bubble could burst and burst badly some time soon; their injury list is reasonably high – higher than that of the Tigers; Hawks by a point but late changes could sway the tip; EXTREME variance
Post March Review: Hawks were tipped by 1 point but the Tigers won by 29 points; analysis was not that great; the main plus was that it was a game to avoid; the Tigers were simply too good; maybe the Hawks had been up for a while and were due for a downer; the variance call was wrong

ADEL v PORT Adel Sun Aug – 6 4.40pm Fxtl

Showers should clear by game time, but windy
Both teams looked like losing but salvaged something last week – a win for Port and the Crows came away with 2 points (almost as good as a win due to their percentage break on Geelong); this isn’t an east pick, and Beets (named) might be in some doubt; the fact that Port celebrated harder after last week than the Crows probably helps Adelaide; Crows by 14 points
Post March Review: Crows were tipped by 14 points and they won by 84 points; analysis was poor, but tipped the winner; the variance was, in the game EXTREME; Port looked like they were still in party mode – celebrating last week’s win; the Crows looked like they were desperate to prove last week’s form wrong (although the Pies are plying well right now); the Crows lost McKay early and Talia late; Port’s Powell-Pepper looks to be out of petrol tickets; Boak tagged Sloane but Sloane was terrific; Ryder was going to be a plus for Port but Jacobs won the Showdown Medal; those coming off injuries / ops for the Crows were great (Betts 129 Sc and 4:4; Lever 77 SC and B Crouch 149 SC; even Cameron is starting to come good!  Crows for the flag!!

CERTS: Bombers (correct – just) and Dockers (correct)

50/50 (where the experts have got it wrong): Dees to win or lose by less than 9 points (incorrect); Lions to win or lose by less than 25 points (correct); Dockers to win by more than 18 points (correct)

This is the week to make up ground – without having to do anything stupid! But if must be outlandish, then the Lions are the go! (incorrect, but gave a yelp)

Round 20 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 19 : second shocker in a row; but this one is more easily explained than Freo; there were two competing technical patterns; the Pies were always going to have a poor period in the game (happens to ll “brave win with injuries team the next week”); but the Crows had this game after a Friday night game 1 versus 2 – which they won well – and a Showdown; looks like they just penciled this one in for a win and they were JUST AWFUL early; apologies for the bad lead on this game; other notes of interest:  Port played the Dees in round 18 and both of them underperformed the following week

This week the Giants are in the spotlight; there is excitement about  Deledio coming back a week after Coniglio came back; but the injury list is too long and these two have had less than an ideal preparation for a tough round 20 game; they also have Cameron and Patton out; plus some INS which may also not be 100% (especially Johnson); GWS has just been too banged up for too long; the Dees will win despite being outsiders; I am counting on the “injury quotient – including players not 100%” factor to overcome the fact that the Dees are on the road for the second week.

I will just make some other notes – without giving a tip; tonight game (sorry, I am writing this after 5pm) – they last met in the 2016 Prelim when the Swans led 7 goals to zip at quarter time; “OUCH”, said the Cats; now the Cats have their worst attack in all year, so it shouldn’t happen; but if it does, here is why: if the Cats blitz early and lead throughout, it will be due to the “revenge” factor more so than their potency up forward; but I am leaving this game alone due to their lack of help for Tom Hawkins.

Another comment: teams fighting for a spot in the 8 can often stumble against a lower side (the one they SHOULD win); my only tip here is to avoid tipping the Dogs as certs; they look like they are back in town, but I am not totally convinced yet and do give the Lions some hope at home

 

Round 21, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 20 review: Super Tipping: 7 out of 9 (jut fair – including 1 for the draw) for a total of 112 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking slipped from 2,397 to 2,812 out of 41,924 (7 was okay but a few would have tipped 9 winners plus the bonus points)

Certs: 2 out of 2 (with the Bombers and Dockers winning); streak now at 3 and ranked 2,052 (improved from 3,340 – inexplicably) (top 8%)

50/50: 2/3 (with the WINS being the Dockers winning by enough and the Lions getting close, but the Dees were the big loser)

4 players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!

Early thoughts for round 21: the early tips are  Dogs, Swans, Tigers, Lions, Crows, Eagles, Saints, Hawks and Port – but plenty of chances to catch up if you are still behind; a tough round coming up

 

 

Round 21 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
WBD v GWS Docklands Fri Aug – 11 7.50pm CH 7  WBD  2  EXTREME
SYD v FREO SCG Sat Aug – 12 1.45pm Fxtl  SYD  27  HIGH
GEEL v RICH Geel Sat Aug – 12 2.10pm Fxtl  RICH  14  EXTREME
BRIS v GCS Gabba Sat Aug – 12 4.35pm Fxtl  BRIS  19  EXTREME
ESS v ADEL Docklands Sat Aug – 12 7.25pm CH 7  ADEL  23  HIGH
WCE v CARL Subi Sat Aug – 12 7.40pm Fxtl  WCE  33  HIGH
MELB v STK MCG Sun Aug – 13 1.10pm Fxtl  MELB  6  EXTREME
HAW v NMFC Launceston Sun Aug – 13 3.20pm CH 7  HAW  27  HIGH
PORT v COLL Adel Sun Aug – 13 4.40pm Fxtl  PORT  29  HIGH

 

WBD v GWS Docklands Fri Aug – 11 7.50pm CH 7

This is a tough one to tip and a game to avoid if you can; what makes this so difficult is that there is a question on each team: are they back? half back? sort of back? The Giants would be back if they could ensure us that all the players who were underdone are now okay – and can back up after a 6 day break and a second road trip in a row (last week they had the advantage of playing Melbourne who, themselves, were on the road for the second week).  The Dogs had a huge game in R19 against the Bombers and then had the “easy kill” game against the Lions at the Gabba; they did well enough to win that danger game, but now have 2 x 6 day breaks (GWS have a 7 and 6 day break); the ins for the Dogs look good; the Giants get back Patton and Greene, but Mumford is out suspended; the coach spoke glowingly about Simpson after last week’s game in the presser and indicated that Simpson almost got the nod over Mumford for R20; now Mummy is out and Simpson is the emergency; surely there will be a late change; watch for this; variance is EXTREME due to uncertainties; Dogs by 2 points
Post March Review: Dogs were tipped by 2 points but the Giants won by 48 points; analysis was miles off; the big query on the Giants was about last week’s win; Danny Frawley said on Friday afternoon that they are back; well, they are back!!! And the Dogs are gone; it is always SO BAD to tip the loser on Friday night, but there was a positive or two; you were warned about Simpson coming in for the Giants; and the EXTREME variance call was correct – with the Giants winning by >36 points more than the expected margin

 

SYD v FREO SCG Sat Aug – 12 1.45pm Fxtl

The Swans were very good last week in a big game – second week in Melbourne and on a 6 day break; no doubt they would have set themselves for the double road trip; now they have a game that has been viewed as an easy kill for some time; as such, it is likely that they will be down in intensity; so don’t expect a monstrous win this time – although a win is likely; the Dockers will be buoyed by breaking a 3 game losing streak; expect them to be up this week and maybe to start quite well; the Swans had Kennedy and Naismith listed as tests early in the week, but neither were risked; Swans by 27 points and not quite certs
Post March Review: Swans were tipped by 27 points and they won by 104 points; analysis was awful, apart from tipping the winner (and who didn’t!); and the Swans were certs at QT!! more to follow

 

GEEL v RICH Geel Sat Aug – 12 2.10pm Fxtl

All logic suggests that the Tigers will win and they will be tipped; the Cats have Motlop and Menzel  back, but it appears that neither might be 100%;  and they lose Duncan, Hawkins and J Selwood; their bottom end players have struggled a bit; the Tigers have a shorter injury list and a more settled side; the Tigers will therefore win IFF they can overcome the following:
A. the current 12 game losing streak against the Cats
B. the huge weight of expectation
C. the fact that the Cats are likely to come out all guns blazing
It’s a question of the Tigers matching the Cats; intensity and holding their nerve.
All of this means that it is an EXTREME variance game
Tigers by 14 points but not certs
Post March Review: Tigers were tipped by 14 points but the Cats won by 14 points; analysis was not that great, but the reason is basically set out above; the Tigers had three things to contend with and couldn’t manage it; many Tiger fans thought that they were hard done by in terms of umpiring; and they lost ex-Cat Caddy early; the Cats lost Stanley, but that was late in the contest; some lesser lights in Cam Guthrie and Kolodjashnij stood up for Geelong

 

BRIS v GCS Gabba Sat Aug – 12 4.35pm Fxtl

The Suns season came unstuck n round 1 when they lost at home as warm favourites to the Lions; now the boot is on the other foot – with Brisbane favourites (narrowly) to win; the golden rule in such games (between lowly combatants) is never to get too confident about tipping a winner; having said that, the injury list for the Suns is much longer; will the sacking of coach Eade make a difference? hard to say – it is often overrated; the Lions may have caught the Dogs on a good week last week and couldn’t win; but their form and fitness makes them the tip here; Lions by 19 points but not certs
Post March Review: Lions were tipped by 19 points and they won by 58 points; analysis was reasonable; the correct team was tipped and the variance was correctly tipped as EXTREME (in table above); looked like the coach sacking had an impact for about a quarter; not helping was the fact that the Suns lost Hanley on Friday (replaced by Bowes 31 SC) and Lemmens (39 SC but he was injured late in the game); Suns Scrimshaw 17 SC and Ah Chee 16 SC hardly contributed

 

ESS v ADEL Docklands Sat Aug – 12 7.25pm CH 7

The Crows will win this so long as they have pulled up well from their big Showdown win; the Bombers have been down a bit lately, but will blip up at some stage; they get back Kelly and McGrath (rested last week), but lost Bellchambers and Zac Merrett, while Baguley has been rested; this almost appears to be a sign that they are gearing up to wins the final 2 games (Suns away and Dockers at home) – and hoping to maybe pinch the Crows game without having a huge build-up for it.
Crows by 23 points but not certs as they played in the wet last week
Post March Review: Crows were tipped by 23 points and they won by 43 points; analysis was so-so; 

 

WCE v CARL Subi Sat Aug – 12 7.40pm Fxtl

The Blues look to be generally our of petrol tickets in the latter part of the year as injuries catch up with a young-ish list; the Eagles should be able to cover this one fairly comfortably; having said that, the Blues have been reasonably good in Perth in recent years; Eagles should get a good game out of the well rested and soon to be retired Priddis; Eagles by 33 and certs
Post March Review: Eagles were tipped by 33 points and they won by 19 points; analysis was fair; the Eagles were not helped by Le Cras being a late withdrawal (replaced by Wellingham 24 SC); the Cert call was looking shaky but happy to come away with a 19 point win; the variance call was wrong – the Eagles went from losing to almost 6 goals up to losing again before drawing away (some slight wind assistance in the scoring patterns)

 

MELB v STK MCG Sun Aug – 13 1.10pm Fxtl

The Dees began well last week and then fell in a hole for enough time to virtually throw the game away (kicked first three then Giants got the next 8); maybe the game gave a false reading and the Giants upward form trend was a blip; the Saints recovered from 3 losses in a row to narrowly get across the line last week over the Eagles; Nathan Jones will be improved by the run last week and the much concussed Brayshaw is on the 7 man IC bench; the Saints lose Riewoldt who didn’t look quite right last weekend; the Saints had a long winning run against the Dees – which was snapped earlier this year; the game is a “lose it and miss the finals” type game – although each team can lose and still play finals; but it feels like a play-off game to see which team makes it; this helps to make it an EXTREME variance game; Dees by a goal
Post March Review: Dees were tipped by 6 points and they won by 22 points; analysis was okay; the right team was tipped in a tough call; but the variance call was incorrect; had the Saints hit the front n 2H, the variance would have tipped over into EXTREME; Saints were not helped by Stevens going off early (strangely – in a head clash with Brayshaw and Stevens came off second best); and Steven 69 SC is well below his 2016 efforts

 

HAW v NMFC Launceston Sun Aug – 13 3.20pm CH 7

The Hawks finally had their finals hopes snuffed out when blown away by the Tigers early last week; this time they should be good enough to beat an undermanned Roos team; North has a long injury list which has got the better of them; Waite is still not back and Brown is expected to play, but there must be a small doubt on him; Hawks by 27 points and certs
Post March Review: Hawks were tipped by 27 points and they won by 27 points; analysis was perfect! Right margin, team and variance; however, the Roos were not helped by the late withdrawal of Ziebell (replaced by Zurhaar – good to see them thinking alphabetically – ubt Zurhaar did score 70 SC); Mitchell was tagged by Dumont and got 35 touches (but 4 of these in the last minute or two chipping the ball back and forth while Dumont was apparently of the ground – poor coverage by team mates) and Dumont himself got a handy 25 touches

 

PORT v COLL Adel Sun Aug – 13 4.40pm Fxtl

Port was truly awful last week and it was the biggest showdown margin ever; this embarrassment factor – plus the out of Grundy – should be enough to ensure a Port win; they often don’t come up well after Showdowns, but the nature of the loss should ensure that they really show something; Wingard coming back is a help;  Port by 29 points and just certs
Post March Review: Port was tipped by 29 points and they won by 27 points; analysis was excellent; right team; 2 points off and right variance; a good Sunday’s work;  the Pies really missed Grundy and Wells; Wingard was good for Port on his return

CERTS: Eagles, Port and Hawks (all won)

50/50 (where the experts have got it wrong): Dockers to win or to get within 48 points of the Swans (gone at QT); Port to win by over 24 points (got there n the last minutes)

This is a tricky week to make up ground – if you are a fair few off, you may need to tip an outsider or two; start by tipping Friday night correctly and then go from there!! Otherwise, outsiders with some hope are Geelong, Suns and Saints (with only the Cats doing any good from this list)

Round 21 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 20 : I am having a shocking run; only plus was being generally okay about the Lions;  I thought that the Giants had hit the wall but they found something at their home away from home in Canberra.

 

This week the Swans will be in focus; the Swans run home was Hawks and Cats (both away) and now they end with the Dockers at home, Adelaide away and Blues at home; the Dockers and Blues loom as the easy kills and they probably already have 1 eye on the Crows game; they have had a nice long rest since and hearing about how well they have done; most are tipping a 50-point margin to the Swans; I reckon that the Dockers will hang in pretty well and either win (unlikely) or get within 40 points of the Swans.

 

Round 22, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 21 review: Super Tipping: 7 out of 9 (just fair) for a total of 119 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking slipped from 2,812 to 3,511 out of 41,924 (7 was okay but a few would have tipped 9 winners plus the bonus points)

Certs: 3 out of 3 (with the Eagles, Hawks and Port winning); streak now at 14 (they give you no points for the draw but it doesn’t kill your streak – just worked this out) and ranked 1,688 (improved from 2,052) (top 6%)

50/50: 1/2 (with the WIN being Port winning by over 24, but loss was the Dockers getting thrashed)

? players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!

Early thoughts for round 22: the early tips are  Crows, Port (toss-up), Cats (danger game – peril type danger, that is), Giants, Dons (maybe a danger game – who knows with Suns and watch for news on Gaza playing), Hawks, Dees, Saints and Tigers

 

 

Round 22 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
ADEL v SYD Adel Fri Aug-18 7.50pm CH 7  ADEL  11  EXTREME
WBD v PORT Ballarat Sat Aug-19 1.45pm Fxtl  PORT  2  EXTREME
COLL v GEEL MCG Sat Aug-19 2.10pm Fxtl  GEEL  12  HIGH
GWS v WCE Spotless (Syd) Sat Aug-19 4.35pm Fxtl  GWS  31  HIGH
GCS v ESS Gold Coast Sat Aug-19 7.25pm Fxtl  ESS  16  EXTREME
CARL v HAW Docklands Sat Aug-19 7.25pm CH 7  HAW  31  HIGH
MELB v BRIS MCG Sun Aug-20 1.10pm Fxtl  MELB  38  HIGH
STK v NMFC Docklands Sun Aug-20 3.20pm CH 7  STK  23  HIGH
FREO v RICH Subi Sun Aug-20 4.40pm Fxtl  RICH  15  EXTREME

 

ADEL v SYD Adel Fri Aug-18 7.50pm CH 7

For those near the top in the tipping, the Swans are a genuine chance to win this one, but you can pick the Crows and try another game this week or next to catch up.  Walker and Sloane were tests this week and picked to play; watch for any late changes, but it appears they will play; Newman was omitted for the Swans (emergency) but was injured last week; maybe he could be the non-playing emergency along with someone else on the plane; based on percentage, the Crows have a top 2 spot sewn up, so not much to play for in that sense; but they would want to keep the Swans down – as they are a team who could beat the Crows in September; the Swans; they last played in a final last year when the Swans won the game early; the Crows have to be the tip, but no certs; a slight minus for the Crows is the re-signing of Keath, Kelly and Knight (doing it alphabetically) – some players underperform after re-signing; the Cats lost 3 straight after the coahc’s deal was signed earlier this year; the game will be assessed as EXTREME variance due to the incentive issue and the doubts on some players –  and Crows off 2 x 6 day breaks; Crows by 11 points
Post March Review: Crows were tipped by 11 points but the Swans won by 3 points; analysis was TBA

WBD v PORT Ballarat Sat Aug-19 1.45pm Fxtl

This is a real toss-up type game for tipsters; pick this correctly and you are likely to move up the ladder; alas, there are too many unknowns to be confident here; the Dogs have brought back Morris early; you know what you will get from him in terms of effort, but he could be slightly underdone; Powell-Pepper comes back from a rest 0 he was great early and his form tapered off recently; the query is – will the 1 week’s rest get him back to top form? the game is at Ballarat – a slight advantage to the Dogs and expect it to be cold (0 – 10, breezy and possible showers); the Dogs had a Friday night shocker against the Giants; not sure if this will be a catalyst for them or will knock the stuffing out of them; Port by 2 points and EXTREME variance
Post March Review: Port was were tipped by 2 points and they won by 17 points; analysis was TBA

COLL v GEEL MCG Sat Aug-19 2.10pm Fxtl

The Cats will be tipped, but not with great confidence; their win last week was meritorious, but the sort of win it may be hard to back up from (excuse grammar);  but helping out is that the Pies lose a few, Wells did not return as hoped, and Grundy is still out; the Cats are also a bit thin, but should probably win this; Pies have jumped them a few times recently; here is the last few head to head games QT leads: 2017: Pies by 4 pts; 2016 Pies by 44; 2015 Pies by 36 and Cats by 34; 2014 Cats by 19; 2013 Pies by 18;  2012 Pies by 34; so I agree with Penny below NOT to tip the Cats as certs; is there any reason for this general trend to continue? probably not; if anything, it could morph into a big 2Q differential some time soon – with both sides being extra determined NOT to blow it in 1Q (and then maybe relaxing slightly at QT); Cats by 13 points
Post March Review: Cats were tipped by 13 points and they won by 11 points; analysis was TBA

GWS v WCE Spotless (Syd) Sat Aug-19 4.35pm Fxtl

It’s hard to see the Eagles winning this one; it is possible that they may not have been 100% revved up for last week – just turned up to bank the four points (unimpressively, it must be said); while the Giants powered away late last Friday; so long as the Giants did not enjoy their positive publicity too much and become like the legendary Icarus, they will this – and their INS are very good; Lobb out Friday – replaced by Himmelberg; Giants just certs and by 31
Post March Review: Giants were tipped by 31 points and they won by 21 points; analysis was TBA

GCS v ESS Gold Coast Sat Aug-19 7.25pm Fxtl

If the Suns are going to fire a shot to end the season , this will be it (rather than R23 in Adelaide); but their injuries are a major concern; once would expect the “easiest finish” Dons to clean up here and then beat the Dockers in Melbourne next week; but the 6 changes for each team is a little unnerving for a tipster; the outlandish tipster should consider the Suns – Essendon has been a bit erratic for much of the season anyway; the outsider tipster here could be looking good through the game or be 12 goals down at HT??????; also the humidity could be a factor as well; Dons by 16 points but not certs
Post March Review: Bombers were tipped by 16 points and they won by 33 points; analysis was TBA

CARL v HAW Docklands Sat Aug-19 7.25pm CH 7

The Blues were pretty good against the Eagles last week, but couldn’t get over the line; their honourable loss looks to have set themselves up for a bad one this week; the Hawks get Poppy back and O’Meara after 3Q of footy last week; there may be a query on whether he plays – or how well he goes if he does; it is conceivable that they could take him off if the game isn’t close in 4Q; Cunningham and McKay were tipped to return this week for the Blues but neither made it; Hawks by 31 points and just certs
Post March Review: Hawks were tipped by 31 points but the Blues won by 7 points; analysis was TBA

MELB v BRIS MCG Sun Aug-20 1.10pm Fxtl

The Lions roared away from the Suns last week, but opposition injuries helped them; they do have the benefit of getting the Dees between 2 “tough games” (Saints R21 and Pies R23); but the Dees should be switched on enough to win this one; the Lions also have their R23 “grand final” – Roos at the Gabba to be the main focus; Hogan returns and may be a bit underdone; Dees by 38 points and certs
Post March Review: Dees were tipped by 38 points and they won by 13 points; analysis was TBA

STK v NMFC Docklands Sun Aug-20 3.20pm CH 7

The Saints snapped a six game losing sequence against the Roos in R13 and should continue on their way here; they may, in fact, play with more freedom now that their finals chances are <1%; none of Waite, Wood and Preuss made it back for the Roos; Ziebell is in but on the 7 man IC, so watch Friday news on him; he may not be 100%; also some doubt on Riewoldt being 100%, but he is nearing the end and should play the final 2 games; Stevens may need a concussion test; Saints by 23 points and almost (but not) certs
Post March Review: Saints were tipped by 23 points and they won by 49 points; analysis was TBA

FREO v RICH Subi Sun Aug-20 4.40pm Fxtl

This will be marked as an EXTREME variance game – mainly because of Freo; they were awful last week and will surely have something to give this week; but they are a bit banged up – losing Neale also (who scored a miserable SC score last week); Mundy maybe NQR and plenty of outs; Ryan had a poor week after racking up a couple of cricket score SC figures; Bennell is back and underdone, but they want to give him a home game after a WAFL game last week; expect a cameo at best from him – maybe mid and forward with limited game time; the Tigers face the same battle as last week – a recently humiliated foe on a hostile ground; this time they should do it, but it is a game to avoid; Kersten out Friday for Dockers; Ibbotson into 25 and his experience may help if in form, but he hasn’t been that great in the WAFL of late;  Tigers by 15 points
Post March Review: Tigers were tipped by 15 points and they won by 104 points; analysis was TBA

 

CERTS: Dees (correct), Giants (correct) and Hawks (incorrect)

50/50 (where the experts have got it wrong): Hawks to win by over 27 points (never a hope); not a great week for 50/50

This is a week to make up ground – pick the Dogs / Port game correctly and maybe look at Swans as an option; thrill-seekers and the desperate could consider the Pies, Suns or Dockers (those taking the Swans benefited but the thrill-seekers were shot down in flames)

 

Round 22 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 21 : my shocking run continues – with the Dockers getting totally flogged; expanding on my theory from last week, I note that teams like the Swans (winning impressively in a huge Friday night game) – often the next week their third quarter is their worst; this happened for the Swans; their margins per term last week were 43 points, 32, 5 and 24.  They still won Q3, but it was their dip; the Dockers were just too poor to take advantage

This week I will pick on the Blues.  They were poor for rounds 18 and 19 (vs Lions and Cats) on the back of injuries – then did well in the past 2 weeks with narrowish losses to Essendon and the Eagles; both the Bombers (currently 10th) and Eagles (8th) were battling to play finals; the Bombers played Carlton in between vital games against the Dogs and Adelaide; the Eagles played the Blues in Perth between away games against the Saints and Giants; in both cases, the Eagles and Bombers were likely to be placing less emphasis on the Blues than the other tougher opponents – good news for Carlton; this week, Carlton play a Hawks team that has been out of the race for a couple of weeks now.  There is no reason for Hawthorn to be more focused on rounds 21, 22 or 23.  So it is an even playing field; I am tipping the Hawks to win by over 5 goals (most would tip a 3-4 goal win).

This next bit won’t help much but, based on last week’s discussion about the Swans, I am tipping the Giants (hot favourites) to lose the third term at home against the Eagles.

Finally, the Cats had a huge win against the Tigers last week; it was against the odds (sort of) because the Cats had Joel Selwood out + Duncan & Hawkins suspended + numerous fringe dwellers injured.  I say “sort of” because the Cats are on a long winning streak against Richmond and the game was at Geelong; Tigers fans also remind me that the umps had an impact on the game.  Anyway, team like the Cats who win such a game often do poorly the next week (eg Roos beat the Dees a few weeks ago and then got slaughtered by Collingwood the next game).  It makes this a danger game for Geelong; my only tip here is NOT to tip the Cats as certs.

 

 

Round 23, 2017 
All times are Eastern

Round 22 review: Super Tipping: 7 out of 9 (just fair) for a total of 126 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 3,511 to 3,033 out of 41,924

Certs: 2 out of 3 (with the Dees and Giants winning, but then the Hawks blowing it; then Tigers were added as a late cert after the Hawks lost); streak wiped at 15 , back to zero and now up to 2 and ranked 2,527 (dropped from 1,688) (top 9%)

50/50: 0/1 (with the Hawks losing)

? players are now left in the Gauntlet!!!  Assume there is now a winner but the AFL website doesn’t tell us

Early thoughts for round 23: the early tips are  Hawks (just), Dees (very confident), Swans (certs), Lions (confident), Giants (toss-up), Port (certs), Bombers (certs),  Tigers (depends on whether Saints are “alive” by Sunday) and Crows  (depends on whether Eagles are “alive” by Sunday)

There has been much discussion about who could make the finals; let’s simplify it
1. Bombers are certs and they will make it
2. Saints and Dogs have no hope
3. Eagles are in IFF they win and the Dees lose and the combine winning margins exceed about 40; the Eagles will know their fate by start of game time; if the Dees and Bombers both win, they are gone already – except if they can beat the Crows by 30 points MORE than the Bombers beat the Dockers (“go Dockers”, one can imagine Eagles fans shouting)

Next – Swans making top 4; forget it; they need the Suns to beat Port in Adelaide!
Port WILL make top 4 if they win and the Tigers lose to the Saints (Port will have to wait and watch Sunday)

Crows can lose top spot and this gets interesting; they can only lose top spot if the Giants win and they lose; now IFF the Giants win, then the Crows could “choose” to slide to second; their opponents (if they choose to slide) will be either Cats (if Richmond lose) or Richmond (if the Tigers win); they will know the Richmond result at half time on their match; if the Crows, Port and Saints ALL win, then the Crows will face Port in a finals Showdown!

Cats play Giants for a home final; the loser travels in week 1 of the finals and they could end up playing again first up in finals; if the Giants and Tigers win, then the Giants would host the Tigers in week 1 of finals

 

Round 23 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
HAW v WBD Docklands Fri Aug 25 7.50pm CH 7  HAW  1  EXTREME
COLL v MELB MCG Sat Aug 26 1.45pm Fxtl  MELB  8  HIGH
SYD v CARL SCG Sat Aug 26 2.10pm Fxtl  SYD  34  HIGH
BRIS v NMFC Gabba Sat Aug 26 4.35pm Fxtl  BRIS  31  EXTREME
GEEL v GWS Geel Sat Aug 26 7.25pm CH 7  GWS  1  HIGH
PORT v GCS Adel Sat Aug 26 7.25pm Fxtl  PORT  44  HIGH
ESS v FREO Docklands Sun Aug 27 1.10pm Fxtl  ESS  52  EXTREME
RICH v STK MCG Sun Aug 27 3.20pm CH 7  RICH  20  HIGH
WCE v ADEL Subi Sun Aug 27 4.40pm Fxtl  ADEL  14  EXTREME

 

HAW v WBD Docklands Fri Aug 25 7.50pm CH 7

This week, much focus will be on the focus of the clubs; many of them will have an eye on other results; first up: the Hawks just want to win to send out Hodge on a winning note; finals are out of reach; the Dogs need multiple things to go their way if they win in order to make the finals; so unlikely is it, that they will be just playing to win for the retiring Murphy (and not Matthew Boyd, back in for R23); then they can sit back and hope for the best if they win; the Saints will watch on with interest; if the Hawks lose and the Pies win, their first round draft pick next year moves up 1 spot; this is so tough to pick; the team changes slightly favour the Dogs but, in the end, the Hawks have been tipped; the things in favour of the Hawks is that the Dogs had to play in Ballarat last week; they may be a bit flat after playing in the cold and having a big build-up for the game; the other plus for the Hawks is that they were a bit flat last week in between the battle of Tassie (R21 vs Roos) and the Hodge farewell game…. and the Blues were very UP for the 1987 premiership re-union; of interest is that the Blues targeted Sicily – with great success; this will be of interest Friday night; it’s tough to know how the Dogs will end their premiership defence – with a bang or a whimper; the Dogs last game against Hawthorn was in the finals last year when the Dogs knocked the Hawks out of the race; maybe a slight help to Hawthorn in that; Hawks by a point and EXTREME variance
Post March Review: Hawks were tipped by 1 point and they won by 9 points; analysis was fair; the right team was tipped, but the variance was only HIGH; it was a good, honest go between two team just outside the 8; in the end, Hodge made a good save down back and the Murphy misses a chance to get the Dogs within a goal with a minute to go; the Dogs’ premiership defence never really settled into a routine; they finished just as the Hawks did in 2009 (after winning their first flag for 17 years) – bombing out in the last round (the dogs had a 1 in 100000000 chance to make it)

COLL v MELB MCG Sat Aug 26 1.45pm Fxtl

The Dees have a simple formula: win and they are in (the finals); if they lose, they can still make it if enough teams below them also lose; but, since they are playing fist up Saturday, their focus will be fairly narrow.  The Pies will have Bucks on their mind; a decision about him is likely to be made soon after the season ends; this could be either a distraction or a spur for the players; but listening to Moons on SEN on Thursday, he reckons that the players are all behind Bucks; so this will be marked as a HIGH variance game – with both sides able to fully focus; of interest will be how Hogan goes second up; the Lions played him the wrong way, according to SEN last Sunday; Grundy coming back is a huge in, but the fact that he has just re-signed is a slight negative; the Dees will be more UP for this game than last week when they were expected to win easily; go along and see this one – it promises to be a goodie; Fasolo not back for the Pies not Viney for Melbourne; Dees by 8 points
Post March Review: Dees were tipped by 8 points but the Pies won by 16 points; analysis was mixed; the wrong team was tipped, but many had almost penciled in the Dees as being over the line; that was the positive; the variance was borderline between High and EXTREME; the Dees were very poor early – 11 minutes to get its first tackle; it appears that the Dees were overawed by the occasion; they fought back well, but never looked likely; they missed Viney; the Pies were pretty good and the players were obviously playing for Bucks (as above); Bucks’ post-match was a ripper for footy fans generally

 

SYD v CARL SCG Sat Aug 26 2.10pm Fxtl

Swans should win and stay in 6th or possibly move up to 5th; if they win and both Port and Tigers lose, they will be fourth (highly unlikely); both those other games begin after the Swans end their game, so they should not be distracted.  the other thing of note was that the absolute bottom of the hole for the Swans was the Blues loss in R6 (to make it 0-6) when the Blues picked on Mills successfully; the likely response form the Swans is to kill this game off early; but their killer instinct late might be in question if the game is truly won; the outs of Hannebery and Papley is of interest; no need to rest in view of the R24 bye; still the Swans should be too good; if they lose, they will not lose 6th spot; Swans by 34 points and CERTS
Post March Review: Swans were tipped by 34 points and they won by 81 points; analysis was not that great; the Swans were terrific and the Blues just clocked off early – while Buddy put on a show (10 goals and 183 SC); the Swans has a small chance to go higher – and some incentive for putting the foot down, but Port trumped them later that night; then the Tigers sealed the deal that kept them 7th.

 

BRIS v NMFC Gabba Sat Aug 26 4.35pm Fxtl

Loser “wins” the spoon; avoiding the shame should be a motive here; but if one club gets a big lead, the other might drop off late through disappointment; very confident now on the Lions; the Roos have too many injuries and Goldy might also be in some doubt – or play at less than 100%;  Lions by 31, but it will be marked as an EXTREME variance game due to the fact that it is tough to get too excited about tipping a 17 vs 18 contest; the Lions will be tipped as certs, but you can avoid them if you have a long winning sequence alive
Post March Review: Lions were tipped by 31 points but the Roos won by 51 points; analysis was mainly terrible; the wrong team was tipped and this website was much more bullish than most tipsters; the one positive was that the Lions weren’t tipped as certs and the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME; Dumont did a great job on Dayne Beams (78 SC – while Dumont himself scored 117); Brown booted 7 goals and Goldy did well after a 2Q groin injury;  Ben McKay debuted for the Roos and showed something before being concussed; like Melbourne, the Lions may have suffered from a weight of expectation; coach Fagan agreed with reporters that the Roos’ effort was much better; they lost Hipwood before the game – replaced by Cox (38 SC); then they lost Lester as well with a head knock

 

GEEL v GWS Geel Sat Aug 26 7.25pm CH 7

The winner gets to be in the top 2 and a home final; the Giants will be on top if they win and the Crows lose; if so, they could play Geelong, Richmond or Port in week one; they won’t know this until Sunday, so they won’t be distracted by that; a home first final is huge for them; if they win and finish second, they will play either the Cats (again) or Richmond.
If the Cats win, they will be second; and they will play the Giants if Richmond lose or the Tigers if the Tigers win; the Tigers play Sunday, so no distractions for the Cats; the Giants could lose and come out okay – they may play Geelong two matches in a row at Geelong and get a “dressed rehearsal” for the finals in R23; Stevie J is in for his last game at Geelong (maybe – certainly will be if the Giants win); so tough to tip this one; Blicavs back early; is he 100%;  what can the Giants get out of Johnson – who is near the end? Giants by a point
Post March Review: Giants were tipped by 1 point but the Cats won by 44 points; analysis was not that great – wrong team was tipped and they won by heaps; coach Cameron was asked about too many tall forwards – he said it didn’t work this time but it has in the past; a couple of Giants copped knocks in marking contests; Shaw (50 SC) and Scully (55 SC) were poor; Blicavs tagged Kelly (106 SC) and S Selwood was on Shiel (88 SC compared to Selwood 128 SC); 

PORT v GCS Adel Sat Aug 26 7.25pm Fxtl

Port has to win and hope the Tigers lose Sunday and they will be fourth – with a likely Showdown final to come;  but if the Crows lose and the Giants win, Port goes to Sydney to play GWS in F1; not much distraction for Port; they will just play to win; early in the week, it was “no Ablett”, but the Thursday afternoon article on the AFL website said “Gazza a huge chance” and then added that if he pulls up well Friday, he is in; looks like he will be picked but subject to a test on Friday… but wait…. he is out Thursday evening after being selected. Sam Gray and Dan Houston are in some doubt; Port by 44 points and certs
Post March Review: Port was tipped by 44 points and they won by 115 points; analysis was fair; the margin was a long way off; the Suns just fell away totally after QT; as such, the variance should have been marked as EXTREME; remember that these teams had the R9 bye and the Suns had by far the worse injuries since then; the end of the year came too late for the Suns – regardless of coach changes; stand-in Solomon emphasised that he really believes the team is on the right track after R23; coach Hinkley let his players in on the Swans game (which was in progress as they prepared); he told them at 3QT what they needed to do to stay ahead of the Swans; in the end, neither got 4th, but Port won the right to 5th

ESS v FREO Docklands Sun Aug 27 1.10pm Fxtl ESS

Bombers have a simple formula: win and they are in (unless the Eagles really smash the Crows – beating them by 30 points more approx than the Bombers beat the Dockers); if they lose, they need the Eagles, Saints and Dogs to all lose; they will know the Dogs result the night before they play; but, since the eagles and Saints play Sunday, their focus will be on winning without any real distraction.

For Essendon, this has been like a marathon (all the penalties and frustration – finally leading to the finish line = make the finals).  Unlike Richmond (who need to win a final) it is enough for Essendon just to make them.  For many inexperienced marathon runners, the tough bit is about the 75% mark of the race; they are almost done, but lots of hard work needs to take place.  However, when the finish line is close, the extra burst of energy kicks in; that should be expected in this case.

As for Freo, they have had back to back 104 point losses.  They have one team in front of them…. the Saints lost rounds 1, 2 and 3 in 1985 by 110, 140 and 113; they then lost by 39 to the Roos and beat Fitzroy by 4 points in R5 .. and ended with 3 wins and the spoon.

Freo have some nice INS (Neale the best, but he might be a test), but they are still too banged up to be any hope; Bombers by 52 points and CERTS, but the variance will be EXTREME because of concerns for the Dockers playing stocks state; maybe some are playing injured!!
Post March Review: Bombers were tipped by 52 points and they won by 15 points; analysis was awful; the Dockers really came out determined to avoid a third shellacking; and they were very good – apart from a couple of patches; Neale came in and did fairly well (93 SC); Hocking came in as a late replacement for Hooker and scored 55 SC; the Bombers

RICH v STK MCG Sun Aug 27 3.20pm CH 7

Regardless of the Cats / Giants result, the Tigers will be playing for third; if the Cats lose, any win by the Tigers will put them in 3rd, if the Giants lose, the Tigers’ winning margin plus the Giants losing margin needs to be about a total of 29 for them to leap-frog GWS; if the Giants lose by 4 goals or more, then the Tigers just need to win; it should be easy for the Tigers to focus; the big problem for the Saints is that they might be dead in the water before game time; if the Bombers win, the Saints would have to win by over 20 goals to pass them in percentage; then there is the problem of the Eagles; the Saints need the Eagles to lose; in the highly likely even that the Bombers win, then the Saints are cooked – unless the Dees lose; but then the Saints winning margin plus the Dees’ losing margin needs to be about 23 goals; it’s all too much for the Saints and is a negative for their R23 output; with all the possible negatives for the Saints; the Tigers, unlike the Bombers, need to win a final to call the year a success; they need to win this one to get the crucial double chance and avoid another elimination final; they have lost their first final in their last multiple finals appearances (winning their second final when given the double chance and then losing the prelim); last time these teams played, the Saints came back from Perth and had the game won by half time (up 14 goals to 1);  will this have an impact?  maybe the Tigers will focus on a good start; Tigers by 20 points
Post March Review: Tigers were tipped by 20 points and they won by 41 points; analysis was fair – given that most tipped the Tigers by about 2 goals; two things probably helped Richmond; one was that they didn’t need to check other results; they were just playing for 3rd and out of the top 4 if they lost (which would have been a tragedy – given their most recent elimination final results); the other was that they got totally thrashed early by the Saints a few weeks earlier; the Saints saw Essendon 31 points up as they prepared = finals out of the question; coach Richo said it had an impact; this explains the poor 1H for the Saints; from late 1H until the end, it was a draw – with the Saints back in the contest by then and the Tigers doing enough to get the double chance; the Saints were not helped when losing Geary early; Townsend booted 5 for the Tigers to make it 11 in 2 weeks

WCE v ADEL Subi Sun Aug 27 4.40pm Fxtl

The Eagles could be be 99% dead in the water come game time; if they win and the Bombers lose, they are in; but their best hope is for the Dees to lose; then the Eagles have to win and have the total of their winning margin plus the Dees losing margin to be over 4 goals approx.  All this is not good for their lead-up to the game; it is a huge negative for the Eagles.
The Crows could lose top spot, but not a home final in F1, if the Giants win; but all this is immaterial; surely the Crows would not want to go into their first final with back to back losses – even in tough games; if so, they would play F1 having not won in almost a month; there are too many negatives to get too excited about the Eagles; but they can always win big enough to overtake the Dees; Crows by 14 points with an EXTREME variance due to all the uncertainty about what a win or loss means when looking at it on a Thursday night
Post March Review: Crows were tipped by 14 points but the Eagles won by 29 points; analysis was not that great; as it turned out, the Eagles were ALIVE coming into this game and had to win by about 4 goals; analysis was not that great; the Crows began the week 12 point favourites and then 6 points after the teams were names; then, after the results on Saturday, the Crows had top spot sewn up and the Eagles became favourites; despite all that, the tip for the Crows stood – given what had happened in R23 last year; Josh Jenkins was interviewed Monday and said that they didn’t have the right attitude!!!!  amazing!  Maybe “wining” top spot caused them to relax!

 

CERTS: Bombers, Port, Swans and, if you like a risk, Lions 

50/50 (where the experts have got it wrong): Lions to win by more than 20 points; Bombers to win by over 47

If you are within 1 of the lead, then just go with the obvious ones and try to get the Hawks / Dogs and Cats / Giants game right; if you need another 1 or 2 to catch up, then the Pies  are the best go, then, if you must, Saints and Eagles; steer clear of the Roos

 

Round 23 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 22 : a mixed bag – a D minus; the worst bit was the Blues; when I talked about the Hawks being out of the finals… well they were; but they may have played like the mathematical chance they had was real; they played like a top 8 contender needing a rest; then there was the 1987 Carlton premiership re-union; this match – with R23 being in Sydney – became the Blues’ “grand final”.  The Hawks were never a hope at all;  the tip on the Giants was spot on – they won the third term despite losing the match; the tip on not tipping Geelong as certs – well, they won in the end, but I reckon it wasn’t worth the stress – especially when they were 4 goals down early

This week I will pick on the Roos; Longggey above mentions that you can never be sure about a bottom team when tipping them; that is generally true, but I think that the Roos are just too far gone in terms of injury and they have reached the critical 25 point – allocating points for players out injured or unable to perform at their top (4 = superstar; 3 = star; 2 = handy play; 1 = fringe player; 0 = project player only & use a 1 if quality player is in doubt); that’s the state of the Roos and they may have other players that need a rest; the Lions are much better placed in terms of player availability; Lions are generally being tipped by 2-3 goals, but they will win by over 4