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Rounds 7-12, 2017

Round 7, 2017
All times are Eastern

Round 6 review: Super Tipping: 5 out of 9 (so-so) for a total of 39 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking dropped from 3,259  to 3,708 out of 40,715

Certs: 1 out of 2 – with Cats going under and then Crows cruising home; streak wiped and now back at 1; ranking dropped from 7,312 to 8,820 (top 44%)

50/50: 1 out of 3  (with Dees winning – good, but Cats losing and Suns losing by too much) for a total of 7 out of 20 and a poor
35
% (still poor – above 50% is good)

Early thoughts for round 7: this looks like a round where the favourites are generally going to be too highly fancied; early certs appear to be Crows, Pies, Dockers and Swans; the other early tips are Giants and Port (but both are danger games), Cats, Dogs and Dees

GAUNTLET continues; week 6 tip ADELAIDE won
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a mere 8584/33966 left in the comp – with the Swans and Cats killing off a whole heap of tipsters

Gauntlet tip this week is TBD – likely to be Swans, Dockers, Cats or Pies

Round 7 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
STK v GWS Docklands Fri May – 5 7.50pm CH 7  GWS  3   EXTREME
NMFC v ADEL Hobart Sat May – 6 1.45pm Fxtl  ADEL  18   HIGH
COLL v CARL MCG Sat May – 6 2.10pm Fxtl  COLL  23   EXTREME
PORT v WCE Adelaide Sat May – 6 4.35pm Fxtl  PORT  1   EXTREME
GCS v GEEL Gold Coast Sat May – 6 7.25pm Fxtl  GEEL  23   EXTREME
WBD v RICH Docklands Sat May – 6 7.25pm CH 7  WBD  31   HIGH
SYD v BRIS SCG Sun May – 7 1.10pm Fxtl  SYD  42   HIGH
MELB v HAW MCG Sun May – 7 3.20pm CH 7  MELB  11   EXTREME
FREO v ESS Subi Sun May – 7 4.40pm Fxtl  FREO  26   HIGH

 

STK v GWS Docklands Fri May – 5 7.50pm CH 7

This is a huge danger game for the Giants; it’s their 4th road trip in the past 5 weeks (due to home games at Canberra) and they are down on players at present; of interest is the inclusion of Coniglio and how well he goes in his first game for the year; the Giants’ injury list is still pretty long and they also lose Greene to suspension; plus they have traveled weeks 3, 4, 6 & 7 (with their one “home game” being an away game vs Swans – their home games were at Canberra); the Saints are a huge chance in this game – despite being only tipped by 12% of tipsters
Match Review: Giants were tipped by 3 points but the Saints won by 23; analysis was mixed; the wrong team was tipped; but the Saints were given a genuine chance and it was assessed as almost a 50/50 game; the chat after the game was all about how disappointing the Giants were; in reality, they were just tired (having been on the road lots as mentioned above) and they lost Kennedy (Adam) early in the game; Hopper got injured and Wilson got a head knock but played on; Stevie J played like he needed a rest.  For the Saints, Riewoldt looked injured at times; the variance was almost, but not, EXTREME; one more goal to the Saints and it would have been EXTREME.

 

NMFC v ADEL Hobart Sat May – 6 1.45pm Fxtl

The Crows should probably win this, but there are better weeks than this to tip the Crows in the Gauntlet (see Penny’s notes below); the Roos may do well now that they have notched their first win; it’s hard to tip against the Crows, but the margin most are going for (>6 goals) may be a bit too much; Crows by 18 points
Match Review: Crows were tipped by 18 points but the Roos won by 59; analysis was fair; the wrong team was tipped but most had the Crows as absolute total certs; this website gave the Roos a hope; the other negative was that the variance was wrongly tipped – with the Roos being up by over 60 and winning by 59; a win of any sort by the Roos would’ve made it an EXTREME varinace result; this one was EXTREMELY EXTREME! Credit goes to Penny (see below) for the explanation of why the Roos were likely to out-perform expectations; it all comes down the the “pressure relief valve” scenario – and the lack of “wow” in the win last week by the Roos meant that the Crows were lulled into a sense of invincibility; the hot anf cold Waite came back and booted 6 plus scored a monstrous 190 SC points; several Crows had their worst games of the year – Sloane 80 SC (low for him, but he was off the ground late in R6 with a knee problem!); Walker 24; Mackay 46; Cameron 51; over all the Roos smashed the Crows in SC 1861 to 1445; injuries and late changes evened themselves out pretty much

 

COLL v CARL MCG Sat May – 6 2.10pm Fxtl

The Pies should win this – so long as their recovery from the Tuesday and Sunday games in not an issue; it’s enough of a concern to avoid tipping them as certs; and the Blues can lift for games against Collingwood; the doubts make this an EXTREME variance game; Pies by 23 points but not certs
Match Review: Pies were tipped by 23 points but the Blues won by 23; analysis was perfect, except the wrong team was tipped (ie the margin was tipped to the exact margin – joke, Joyce); not good to tip a loser, but the warning was out there on the Pies and the variance tip of EXTREME was correct – with the end result being 44 points outside of the expected range; Wells was a late withdrawal for the Pies – he has had 2 short breaks after an interrupted pre-season; then the Pies had a few small injury concerns on the day; but the main probelm was not being able to back up after the ANZAC Day Tuesday game and then the Sunday game last week; the Blues deserve credit, however, for being good enough to take advantage of their good timing

 

PORT v WCE Adelaide Sat May – 6 4.35pm Fxtl

See Penny’s comments below; Port is a clear favourite, but this is a huge danger game for them; Ebert will be free top play after his wife gave birth to their first child during the week; but it is not the ideal prep for a game! The Eagles have a definite chance here – with Port having 1 eye on the R8 clash in Shanghai; several Eagles were sore last week and watch for late changes; those sore were Vardy, Gaff, Duggan, Mitchell & Mutimer – with duggan the least likely to play at this stage – Hutchings is an emergency and training with the squad; this is a game the eagles would be aiming for to secure a top 4 spot; Port by a point at this stage, but would be almost tempted to tip the Eagles if it were clear that all their players were good to go; an EXTREME variance game due to doubts on Eagles and also doubts on how Port will handle the week prior to Shanghai
Match Review: Port was tipped by a point but the Eagles won by 10; analysis was pretty good here, but there was a bit of woosiness in not going for the Eagles outright!  The concern for the Eagles was the doubts on the fitness of several players; only Duggan didn’t get up – replaced by Hutchings; Gaff (see above) was one who was down on his usual output; Sheppard got the job on Robbie Gray and limited him to 30 SC points; Gray’s groin is giving him some trouble; Boak scored 69 SC points after being in some doubt; Port won the SC points by 81 but kicked 12:15 to 15:7; Port dominated the inside 50, but the Eagles finishing was much better; maybe the fact that Port had a big focus on Shanghai helped a little

 

GCS v GEEL Gold Coast Sat May – 6 7.25pm Fxtl

See Penny’s comments below; the Cats are expected to bounce back this week; the Suns are getting ready to fly to Shanghai; Menzel back for Geelong helps a lot; the Suns also look stronger, but still do not have Thompson; Rosa may have to pass a concussion test; Rocket Eade has “queried” umpiring decisions this week – which caused a “he’s done it again” reavtion from Chris Scott of Geelong; Cats by 23 points
Match Review: Cats were tipped by 23 points but the Suns won by 25; analysis was not that great – even though most others tipped the Cats by a similar margin; the Cats are in a flat spot, according to their coach; but maybe the Suns have been slightly underestimated; and also that the Suns have been gradually getting their best team together;  Henderson was a late out for the Cats, but Menegola replaced him and did well, although a different type of player; Aaron Hall was super after being a concussion test last week; similarly, Rosa was a concussion test and did well

 

WBD v RICH Docklands Sat May – 6 7.25pm CH 7

The bad loss to the Crows is a bad thing for the Tigers and the Dogs should be able to capitalise; the Tigers lose Nankervis and Soldo comes in for his first game, but did not star in the VFL last week; the Tigers are coming back from Adelaide off the back of 2 x 6 day breaks; the Dogs have had a 8 day break – having played last Friday night; the Dogs don’t get Campbell back, but should be able to get by without him – although he is an emergency – maybe a late change; Libba is apparently okay after last week’s knock; it all points to the Dogs being certs and winning by 31
Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 31 points and they won by 5; analysis was poor here; a cert should win with a leg in the air, but this was a nail-biter; maybe the Dogs were able to get up because they had a 8 day break compared to the Tigers 6 + 6; Richmond “bounced back” from their bad loss last week very well and had a huge chance to win it; maybe the Dogs had a monstrous build-up for the GWS Friday night game and were a bit flat the following week – at least early in the game; both teams look well placed in the short term. both GWS and the Dogs underperformed this week.

 

SYD v BRIS SCG Sun May – 7 1.10pm Fxtl

What has gone wrong for the Swans?  Let’s compare today’s team with the GF team; Gone fom the club: Tom Mitchell, McGlynn, Xavier Richards
Injured: Rampe; Kieran Jack, Tippett, McVeigh (but name don 7 man IC this week for maybe his first game), Rohan; Laidler
In but underdone or not firing yet: Heeney, Hannebery, Papley, Naismith, Mills (maybe 2nd year blues for him), Aliir
Parker had an interrupted pre-season
They have no ready-made recruits to speak of, although Florent and Hayward look promising
Having said all that, surely Shirley this is a good chance for the Swans to break through!! There was an article on the AFL website about the Swans not protecting Mills when assailed by multiple Blues last week; it’s the sort of thing needed to snap the Swans back into action; maybe the Swans watched the previous Carlton Friday night 90 point loss to Port and thought;”how easy is this going to be?”; also, the Swans were coming off a huge game against the Giants; Dayne Beams is a key out for the Lions – as is Cutler; Swans by 42 points and certs and GAUNTLET tip
Match Review: Swans were tipped by 42 points and they won by 54; analysis was okay and the CERT + Gauntlet tip was spot on; the game was virtually over at QT – 35 pts up on the way to a 54-point win; this was a “line in the sand” type game for the Swans; Heeney is getting back to his best; Aliir was a late withdrawal – for being late for training – replaced by Marsh; Buddy had a day out – kicking 8:4; the Lions had Robinson injured early and this was a hindrance; the Lions did okay to fight the game out and win 4Q.

 

MELB v HAW MCG Sun May – 7 3.20pm CH 7

With the Dees short on talls and the Hawks all over the shop, this is a game to avoid; it will be assessed as EXTREME variance, Lewis plays against his old team – this adds to the variance issues; the Hawks are on a good week (Eagles win); Shocker (Saints loss); third week pattern; normally  middle of the road teams do poorly in this pattern early season; poor teams do slightly better than expected, while top teams excel; are the Hawks poor of middle at present???? Dees by 11 points but no certs
Match Review: Dees were tipped by 11 points but the Hawks won by 3; analysis was mixed; the EXTREME variance call was borderline; the Hawks were very good early; Will Langford came in for O’Meara and did quite well; they lost Birchall early and so did well to hang on; some think Petracca is playing hurt; the Dees are struggling without a ruckman but were still disappointing; the Hawks have now won two games for the year – 1 against Sam Mitchell’s new team and the other versus Jordan Lewis’ new team!!

 

FREO v ESS Subi Sun May – 7 4.40pm Fxtl

The Dockers should be able to get back on the winner’s list in this one; there is talk that Walters might be injected into the midfield to add the pace lost when Stephen Hill went out injured 2 weeks ago; the Bombers have made a huge number of changes – probably too many to be a really good chance; Dockers by 26 points and certs
Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 26 points and they won by 37; analysis was extra good; the Dockers were only favoured by 1-2 goals after a poor showing in the Derby; the Derby loss was made look even worse because it came off the back of the Eagles being towelled up by the previously winless Hawks the week earlier; when this is taken in proper context (ie that the Eagles were a much better team than one that lost to the bottom team by 8 goals) – and the short breaks plus travel factor for the Dons, the experts clearly had it wrong; later in the game; Blakely quietened Merrett and Walters – as tipped by some – went into the mid and did well; the Bombers were good early but lost 4Q 6:4 to 0:2; Taberner did well and seemed to get the right mix between tall and small; the game started in 30 degree heat and some say that this was a factor; probably more so for the Bombers – coming from a cold Melbourne environment and given the 5 + 7 day breaks; the other thing that probably was a bit too much was the 6 changes to the Essendon team.

 

CERTS: Dogs, Swans, then Freo (all correct, but the Dogs made hard work of it!)

GAUNTLET: it is the Swans (never in doubt) ; best ones would be Dogs, Swans or Dockers; avoid Port and the Crows this week – they may win but better opportunities await for them; also avoid GWS; they are travel-weary and you will need them in R11 or R12
if you have tipped Hawks and then Blues in the past 2 weeks, you are a genius;

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): Saints to win or to lose by less than 12 points (correct); Roos to win or to lose by less than 35 points (correct); Eagles to win or to lose by less than 18 points (correct); Dogs to win by more than 24 points (incorrect); Dockers by more than 11 points (correct)

This round is very tough – and tricky on the first 2 days of games!! (correct)

 

Round 7 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 6: relief – at last I really nailed (probably when all had given up on me) – a great result!  Firstly, I’m glad I steered away from the Hawks; they have exhibited chaotic form in recent weeks. And I got the Dees EXACTLY right!  What satisfaction!!

 

The topic that will be huge news NEXT WEEK but hardly talked about at all THIS WEEK (especially outside of SA and the Gold Coast) is the round 8 game in Shanghai; The only recent overseas games of AFL football for premiership points have been in Wellington NZ. With only 3 games played there  (2013 to 2015), the sample size is too small to draw useful conclusions. On top of that, the ShangHai trip will be vastly different from the journey to NZ for St Kilda and their opponents in recent years. the findings will be noted; but maybe a better comparison is the London games played by NFL teams. There has been a dozen or so of these games in the past decade; and some trends have emerged. The trend is negative at about -6 for teams playing the week prior to the trip to London (from the first ever game until 2015; in 2016, the travelling teams seem to have adapted and ever so slightly over-achieved in the week prior to their trip). This doesn’t look like a big deal, but AFL scores are 3 to 4 times as large as NFL scores, so this equates to a highly significant variance of -20 if the AFL teams are similarly affected.

Just going back the the AFL data; the three games – teams before flying to NZ underperformed by 9.5 points on average; but 3 ot these 6 teams played Essendon the week prior to Essendon playing their “grand final” (ANZAC Day); the teams playing the Bombers outperformed by 15 pts; the other three teams underperformed by an average of 33 pts.

The teams playing in Shanghai are Port + the Suns; Port is favoured to win by just over 3 goals over the Eagles at home; while the Suns (also playing at home) are expected to lose to the Cats by about the same amount.  I expect the Eagles to win or to lose by less than 2 goals; and the Cats to win by over 5 goals.

Another thing; the Roos snapped their 5 game losing streak with a win over the Suns; it was an unimpressive one; this bodes well for the Roos and it generally leads to an improved performance the following week; expect the Roos to outperform expectations by at least 2 goals; trouble is – they are playing the Crows (in Tassie); they would need to outperform expectations by at least 6 goals to win; it’s possible but I would expect them to at least get within 5 goals of Adelaide this weekend.

 

Round 8, 2017
All times are Eastern

Round 7 review: Super Tipping: 3 out of 9 (poor) for a total of 42 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking dropped from 3,708 to 4,230 out of 41,099 
Certs: 3 out of 3 – with Dogs squeaking over the line, the Swans and Dockers doing it easily; streak now up to 4; ranking improved from 8,820 to 8,632 (top 40%) – and a good chance to go higher – with many people totally wiped during round 7

50/50: 4 out of 5  (with the 4 correct being the Saints, Roos and Eagles all winning & the Dockers winning by more than 11; the loser was the Dogs who did not win by enough) for a total of  11/25 = an improved but unacceptable 44%

Early thoughts for round 8: the certs appear to be the Hawks, Tigers and Giants; those to be tipped at this stage are the Crows (maybe too highly fancied), Cats, Eagles, Saints; Port will be the tip but it is virtually a 50/50 game and Port are way too highly fancied at this stage; the Roos / Swans game is very tough to pick – Roos at this stage but much more analysis needed

GAUNTLET continues; week 7 tip SWANS won
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 8584 to 4087/33966 left in the comp – with the Giants, Crows & Cats killing off a whole heap of tipsters

Gauntlet tip this week is TBD – likely to be Hawks

Round 8 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
WCE v WBD Subi Fri May – 12 8.10pm CH 7 WCE 21  HIGH
HAW v BRIS Launceston Sat May – 13 1.45pm Fxtl HAW 40  HIGH
STK v CARL Docklands Sat May – 13 2.10pm Fxtl STK 30  HIGH
GWS v COLL Spotless Stad – NSW Sat May – 13 4.35pm Fxtl GWS 34  EXTREME
ESS v GEEL MCG – Vic Sat May – 13 7.25pm CH 7 GEEL 20  EXTREME
ADEL v MELB Adel Sat May – 13 7.40pm Fxtl ADEL 32  HIGH
RICH v FREO MCG – Vic Sun May – 14 1.10pm Fxtl RICH 37  HIGH
GCS v PORT Shanghai Sun May – 14 3.20pm CH 7 PORT 28  EXTREME
NMFC v SYD Docklands Sun May – 14 4.40pm Fxtl  SYD 5  EXTREME

 

WCE v WBD Subi Fri May – 12 8.10pm CH 7

The sudden unsettled-ness of the Dogs is a concern; they still await Cloke and Dickson into the fwd line and now they lose Stringer; and also Dunkley and Murphy go out; with a Friday night game in R9, the Murphy decision is understandable; but it makes it tough for the Dogs to win this; the revenge factor, however, is considered to be negligible; if it does kick in, the likely scenario would be a huge 1Q for the Eagles; but it’s more about home ground advantage and player availability; the lack of Nicnat doesn’t matter quite so much against the Dogs; Tom Boyd has been rucking almost solo, but might need a rest soon (with Campbell due in the seniors very soon and also Roughead); Eagles by 21 points
Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 21 points and they won by 8; analysis was reasonably good; the Eagles booted 1:9 in 2H and almost kicked themselves out of it – although both teams missed easy chances; the Eagles won the SC by 112 and therefore look deserved winners. Libba struggled for the Dogs and may be NQR

HAW v BRIS Launceston Sat May – 13 1.45pm Fxtl

To make a case for the Lions, one could say that that their new coach knows the Hawks very well and this may give them an edge; but often the “old coach” beats the new one; the coach situation will at least help the Hawks to be focused; the big help for the Hawks is the 6 day break & back to back road trips for Brisbane – then losing Robinson on top on the better Beams being out.  Hawks will be labelled the certs of the week and are tipped by 40 points
Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 40 points and they won by 38; analysis was very close here and all good; they were correctly names as the Gauntlet tip; they maybe could’ve won by more but had some injury troubles – mainly Cyril and Stratton; BIG news for fantasy footy players is that the mega-scoring Rockliff dislocated his shoulder late in the game

STK v CARL Docklands Sat May – 13 2.10pm Fxtl

How to rate the Blues form?  maybe they caught the Swans off guard in R6 (after a shocker R5) and then they got the Pies at the right time – with Collingwood having a 5 and then 7 day break and a HUGE build-up for the Geelong game; the Saints have been rolling along quite well; and they also got the Giants at the right time; but the Saints are a far better team; Longer seems to be filling in nicely for Hickey; Saints by 30 points and certs – just
Match Review: Saints were tipped by 30 points and they won by 19; analysis was fair; the Saints eventually pulled away, but it was not n the bag until quite late; perhaps they could’ve won by more had they not lost Webster early

GWS v COLL Spotless Stad – NSW Sat May – 13 4.35pm Fxtl

both teams have really struggled with injuries; the Gaints FINALLY come home after 4 weeks of travel in the past 5 weeks (albeit 2 to Canbeera – their alternate home ground); the Pies  were beaten by the Bombers on ANZAC Day; then rose to the challenge to upset the Cats, but collapsed against the Blues; the Giants will see this as their best chance to open their winning account against the Pies; they probably should do it, but have a long injury list; two more go out but Whitfield comes back off his suspension; he should go okay first up – maybe rested late if the game is safe; Coniglio is 2nd up; the Pies had a few players WAAAAY below their best last weekend and the query is whether they may be sore still; Pendles has a baby on the way and there is some small chance he may miss the game; Wells coming back is a help; this one has EXTREME variance written all over it; Giants by 34 points but not certs due to the variance
Match Review: Giants were tipped by 34 points and they won by 3; analysis was better than it looked; first off – the right team was tipped (even if they were behind in the last minute); next, the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME (with the Pies going from 2 goals down to 4 up and then losing); the Giants lost 2 players in 1Q and then Coniglio in the last; Stevie J became the 2nd ex-Cat to kick a winning goal in the last minute this year (Kersten did it for the Dockers against the Roos); Johnson has been under the pump recently but scored over 100 SC this week – even though he will only be remembered by most for 1 kick; the Pies were almost good enough to make use of their “inside running”, but just fell short

ESS v GEEL MCG – Vic Sat May – 13 7.25pm CH 7

The Cats and Dons have both been poor for 2 weeks; the experts now reckon that 5-0 flattered Geelong (now at 5-2); while the Bombers have had a tough schedule since ANZAC Day – culminating in a trip west last week when they ran out of gas at 3QT; the 6 day break back from Perth – on top of all the changes and returning players’ issues – make this an EXTREME variance game; Kelly was rested 2 weeks ago and now plays his 300th against his old club; Joe Daniher will watch on to see how many hugs Kelly gives the Cat players at the end of the game; the teams have dropped 3 and 4 players respectively; a game to avoid; Cats by 20 points
Match Review: Cats were tipped by 20 points but the Bombers won by 17; analysis was mixed; the wrong team was tipped, but many had pencilled the Cats in as certs; this website cast plenty of doubt on that thought; the Cats came storming home but missed easy shots late and then the Bombers kicked a steadier; the Dons won the SC by a huge 352 – which suggests that they deserved the win; maybe the Bombers were slightly underrated and the travel factor given too much weight; the Cats are playing like a bottom 4 team at present

ADEL v MELB Adel Sat May – 13 7.40pm Fxtl

The Roos showed the world how to beat Adelaide – just lead 64-0 at QT; why didn’t they all think of it?  This looks like a blip on the radar for the Crows -especially since the Dees are battling through a period without any rucks; it is worth noting that the almost all-conquering Blues of 1995 won 7 straight to begin the year; then lost 2 in a row; then continued undefeated; the “2 in a row” is what the Crows will try to avoid; the home crowd should be good for this aim; word is that Lynch has passed his concussion protocol and will play; of interest is that rookie Hugh Greenwood has been upgraded to the senior list this week and is an emergency!!!! Dees forward Hogan was apparently ill on Thursday and didn’t fly out Friday; with Sam Weideman the travelling emergency, it looks unlikely that Hogan will play; Crows by 32 points and just barely certs
Match Review: Crows were tipped by 32 points but the Dees won by 17; analysis was AWFUL; sorry for tipping a cert which lost (frown); the reason NOT to tip the Crows as certs is listed above; but more work needs to be put into this game; Lynch was a test for concussion and passed, but only scored 45 SC; and the variance was wrongly tipped as HIGH; the results shows an ULTRA-EXTREME variance pattern; Hogan went out Friday and was replaced by Weideman (49 SC points); it has now been revealed (midweek) that the Dees lifted after Viney told his team mates how lucky they were to play footy; after the initial Crows onsalught (they would’ve been desperate to avoid another 1Q duck egg), the Dees kicked into top gear; probably the Crows assume that their break of 4 goals would be enough!

RICH v FREO MCG – Vic Sun May – 14 1.10pm Fxtl

The Dockers have recovered from 0-2 to be 3-4 & losing only to the Eagles in the past 4 games; but their win over the Bombers was assisted by the weariness factor – with Essendon stopping to a walk late in the contest; the Tigers bounced back from their bad loss to the Crows to almost beat the Dogs last weekend – maybe a bot stiff to lose; they get Nankervis back (with stand-in Soldo retaining his place…but then out on Friday – replaced by Sam Lloyd); the tigers are tipped as certs here – by 37 points
Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 37 points but the Dockers won by 2; analysis was AWFUL; sorry for tipping a cert which lost (another frown); looks like the Tigers were flattened by last week’s loss but came good late; again, more work needs to be put into this result

GCS v PORT Shanghai Sun May – 14 3.20pm CH 7

Seriously – this is one of the most significant games of the century!  Not because of the positions of the teams – but it is the AFL’s first venture outside of Australia to somewhere that they are wanted; NZ looks down severely on Aussie Rules as a poor alternative to Rugby Union; the Chinese will have a curious squiz at AFL and eventually have a huge interest in it (maybe by 2200 AD); everything has gone wrong for the Suns since their good win over the Cats last weekend; 3 out injured; stuck in Singapore for 2 hours in a plane on the tarmac; most players in cattle class (unlike Port); the humidity likely may help the suns more than Port; the newness of this venture and the distance makes it an EXTREME variance game; Port by 28 points but not certs
Match Review: Port was tipped by 28 points and they won by 72; analysis was reasonably good here; firstly, the right team was tipped; next the variance was correctly labelled as EXTREME; Thompson was a late withdrawal for the Suns after being injued n the warm-up; Brooksby replaced him and did quite well; the Suns kept trying to run the ball with handball and Port closed up their space; maybe the travel kerfuffle adversely affected the Suns; take a squiz at Westhoff’s goal in 2Q!!! Great to see footy in China; a Chinese man sat there with his son and the approx 10 yo boy looked enthralled with the game; Jonas was super on Lynch and unlucky not to get the BOG (which went to Ebert, although several other Port players were close)

 

NMFC v SYD Docklands Sun May – 14 4.40pm Fxtl

The Swans have added Tippett (in 18) and Rohan (in 7 man bench), but their website says they both need to pass Friday fitness tests; a fit Tippett will be a huge help to the Swans; Tom Harley seemed very confident on Tippett early in the week; the Roos were the gaint-killers last week in knocking off the Crows in Tassie; was it a blip or can they repeat it?  They lose Waite and some say he was stiff to be suspended; often teams that beat a juggernaut one week fail to repeat their efforts the following week; the Swans play the Docklands quite well overall; they seem to have a few top players gradually coming back from injury to full fitness; it’s a question of how well they can come back; they would be tipped with some confidence if it were certain that all players were 100% – the 7 day break means that they will be tipped at this stage; watch for team news Friday; doubts on both teams make this an EXTREME variance game; Swans by 5 points  Late Friday news: changes to 7 man bench: Garner and Mullett out (injured); Swallow and Preuss in
Match Review: Swans were tipped by 5 points and they won by 42; analysis was more of a relief here; the correct team was tipped, but there was no great confidence; the EXTREME call was correct – with it being considered a 50/50 game but the margin being 42 points away from that; the Friday news of Mullett and Garner out made things slightly easier for the Swans; Heeney is starting to run into form; Brown copped a knock the previous week against the Crows and kicked 2 goals against the Swans, but only scored 47 SC points and may have been NQR; it got worse for the Roos with Simpkin gone early with a shoulder injury; Newman replaced Florent for the Swans and racked up a massive 151 SC points floating across HB; pity those who had him on their bench in their “teams”; McVeigh played injured after having hammy tightness in 1Q

 

CERTS: Hawks (correct), Tigers (incorrect), Saints (correct)  then Crows (incorrect) (NOTE: Port was added as a cert after the Crows bombed out the streak to zero) (correct)

GAUNTLET: it is the Hawks (correct); continue to avoid GWS; you will need them in R11 or R12; the Saints, Tigers and Crows all look pretty safe this week

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): Tigers to win by more than 22 points (never a hope)

This round looks easy but expect one of the huge favourites to lose! (correct)

 

 

Round 8 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 7: 2 out of 3 aint bad; best was tipping the Roos to outperform expectations against the Crows; they did that on their ear; the other tip – Port and the Suns to underperform the week before Shanghai – Port lost and underperformed (but maybe kicked themselves out of it) – but they still went about 30 points less than expected;  then I came unstuck big time when the Suns blew the Cats away

This week is a tough week to analyse; I was interested in the health of the Pies and Bombers after playing the ANZAC Day game on a Tuesday; I reckon both are vulnerable; but they play teams in trouble; the Dons play the Cats – who are in a hole and may hit back hard or maybe stay in the burrow; the Giants should be ready to smash the Pies, but the Giants are themselves travel-weary (just home now) and have a long injury list; so I will look to Freo; they roared away from the Bombers last week after being behind at 3QT; they looked impressive but most of it was because the Bombers were out of petrol tickets; the Dockers’ form looks okay, but their wins included  a last minute home ground win over the then winless Roos; a 1-kick win over the Dees the week after Melbourne lost Gawn; and a good win over the Dogs – they caught the Dogs when the Dogs had just had a huge Grand Final replay and were about to play the historic first Good Friday game; the Dogs lost Picken early and Tom Boyd was struggling after an early knock; the Dockers now are like the Cats a few weeks ago – lucky to have such a good record after catching teams at the right time; Tigers to win by over 5 goals

 

Round 9, 2017
All times are Eastern

Round 8 review: Super Tipping: 6 out of 9 (okay) for a total of 48 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 4,230 to 2,737 out of 41,250 
Certs: 3 out of 5 – with the Hawks and Saints winning; then the Crows and Tigers losing; Port added late and made the streak end at a miserable 1 – but lots of people would’ve bowed out with the Crows losing; ranking improved from 8,632 to 7,057 (top 32%) – and will have to slowly progress now

50/50: 0 out of 1  (with the Tigers losing) and now at 11/26 =  a poor 42%

Early thoughts for round 9: the certs appear to be the maybe none at all – perhaps the Dockers and Crows; other early tips likely to be the Dogs, Saints, Giants, Pies, Eagles and Dees

GAUNTLET continues; week 8 tip HAWKS won
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 4087 to 3221/33966 left in the comp – with the Crows & Cats killing off a whole heap of tipsters for the second week running

Gauntlet tip this week is TBD – likely to be Dockers, but not entirely confident

 

Round 9 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
GEEL v WBD    Geel Fri May – 19 7.50pm CH 7  WBD  12  EXTREME
STK v SYD Docklands Sat May – 20 1.45pm Fxtl  STK  7  HIGH
GWS v RICH Spotless Sat May – 20 4.35pm Fxtl  GWS  14  EXTREME
BRIS v ADEL Bris Sat May – 20 7.25pm Fxtl  ADEL  43  HIGH
COLL v HAW MCG Sat May – 20 7.25pm CH 7  COLL  11  EXTREME
ESS v WCE Docklands Sun May – 21 1.10pm Fxtl  WCE  6  HIGH
MELB v NMFC MCG Sun May – 21 3.20pm CH 7  NMFC  2  EXTREME
FREO v CARL Subiaco Sun May – 21 4.40pm Fxtl  FREO  21  HIGH
Byes: GCS, PORT

 

GEEL v WBD    Geel Fri May – 19 7.50pm CH 7

This is going to be an EXTREME variance game; see Penny’s comments below; the Cats are playing their first home game for the year with the opening of the new stand; lots of pomp and ceremony, but their form leading in has been terrible; however, the Dogs have lost 10 in a row against Geelong; it’s a game to avoid; it might be wet underfoot as well; the pure form line suggests an easy win for the Dogs; Danger and Joel Selwood appear to be playing under 100%, while the Dogs have made multiple changes; Dogs by 12 points but anything could happen
Match Review: Dogs were tipped by 12 points but the Cats won by 23; analysis was mixed; the wrong team was tipped and that was a minus; the variance was correctly tipped as EXTREME – with the Cats going from 32 points up to 9 down and then winning running away; DanderWood looked better this week – apparently Danger is coming off his injury troubles now; Murdoch replaced Guthrie for the Cats and they lost Cockatoo early; but Smith had a picnic against undersized ruck opposition and scored 140 SC points; expect this to be his best ever; maybe the Dogs made too many changes all at once – although Wallis was very good with 133 SC points

 

STK v SYD Docklands Sat May – 20 1.45pm Fxtl

This is a good test for the Saints; they have been belted by the Swans in recent years; the Swans play Etihad quite well, but are travelling 2 weeks in a row and on a 6 day break; this could work against them – especially as they have some players maybe not quite 100%; it’s more a mental challenge for St Kilda; Riewoldt appears to be carrying some niggles, but has been named; Saints by 7 points
Match Review: Saints were tipped by 7 points but the Swans won by 50; analysis was very poor and the variance tip was also wrong; the Saints copped a few more injuries but were very disappointing; vegetarians please look away now… “we butchered the footy”, said Saints coach Richardson; it continues some beltings handed out to the Saints; back to the 6 day break and travelling; teams can often struggle in such circumstances, but teams can excel if they don’t get behind by any significant margin; if they fall behind by several goals, they can often capitulate; or if it is close in 4Q, they can get overrun; but when they get the significant break themselves, then they can often go on with it – exactly what happened in this game when the Swans led at HT and pulled away in 3Q; Rampe was back in his firs game back from injury

 

GWS v RICH Spotless Sat May – 20 4.35pm Fxtl

This is going to be an EXTREME variance game; another match with rain easing – hopefully gone by game time;  the Tigers could’ve won the last 2 but are now on a 3 game losing streak; but their INS look okay and their OUTS performed poorly last week; the Giants are clear favourites but are running out of players; the 2 games in a  row at home at Spotless is a huge help for them; they will be tipped but not as certs; Giants by 14 points; Friday news: Smith is now out for the Giants – replaced by ex Docker de Boer; and also Corr + Reid will have to pass concussion protocol; the Giants are definitely too hotly favoured now
Match Review: Giants were tipped by 14 points and they won by 3; analysis was excellent; the right team was tipped but it was also correct NOT to tip them as certs (as many had); and the variance call of EXTREME was correct – with the Tigers losing after being up 31 points last in 3Q; not helping the Tigers was Caddy going out – replaced by Miles who only scored 32 SC;

 

BRIS v ADEL Bris Sat May – 20 7.25pm Fxtl

see Penny’s comments below; rain should clear before game time; the Crows are the certs of the week in a cert-unfriendly week; this is their chance to atone; the Dees lifted last week on the back of the health news on Hogan; the Crows appeared desperate to get off to a good start and then apparently assumed that it would just happen; they have two debutantes this week in Gallucci and Greenwood; the Lions are going through a rough patch and won’t win this; a bit of humidity might help them; Crows by 43 points and certs
Match Review: Crows were was tipped by 43 points and they won by 80; analysis was

COLL v HAW MCG Sat May – 20 7.25pm CH 7

This is going to be an EXTREME variance game; maybe the rain will clear by game time; the Hawks have won 9 in a row against the Pies – last losing in a nail-biting 2011 prelim; this time the Pies might see this as their chance to exact revenge – especially with the Hawks losing 4 to injury all at once; if the Pies can get some sort of decisive break, expect them to go right on with it; their effort last weekend looked good in just losing to the Giants, but the Giants were down multiple rotations and the Pies still couldn’t quite get the job done; Pies by 11 points
Match Review: Pies were tipped by 11 points and they won by 18; analysis was very good – with the winner tipped and the variance call correct in a game that had a huge momentum swing; the Hawks were worse hit by injuries – losing 2 prior to the game (O’Brien and Brand out – replaced by Sicily 65 SC and Heatherley 51); the end score line isn’t surprising, but it is a mystery as to how the Hawks got so far in front; the Hawks early played like a team that had won a previous game after a long list of outs (ie they came out all guns blazing early); it is possible that the 2 late changes on top of the 4 out already for the Hawks caused the Pies to be lulled into a false sense of security; maybe the pressure on Bucks is a negative for the team – makes them play fearing a loss rather than going for the win (maybe lacking dare early in the game); Pendles was great in the game; there was much discussion on Tom Mitchell, his 50 possessions and metres gained; Bucks mentioned that Mitchell didn’t hurt them like if Isaac Smith had got 50 and 2500 metres gained; the overview was summed up by Clarkson – the Pies had a more even spread of good players; in actual fact, “metres gained” alone is an insufficient measure; it needs to have “metres gained assists” added to it; Mitchell will probably always be a non-flashy in and under ball magnet who should improve in his value to the team as the new team mates become more accustomed to him; for those concerned, he has been released from hospital after being assessed for leather poisoning

ESS v WCE Docklands Sun May – 21 1.10pm Fxtl

The game being at the Docklands will keep the media hounds off the Eagles backs to some extent; the Bombers were good last weekend – but helped a little by a poor tackling effort from Geelong; so it may be a little difficult to assess that win; they were certainly UP for the game; the Eagles are higher rated and, with slightly better form, will be tipped to win; the ruck situation is of interest – with Bomber Bellchambers and Eagle Petrie both being included on the 7 man bench for their teams; Eagles by 6 points
Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 6 points but the Bombers won by 61; analysis was bad in every way… the Bombers were unchanged and the stability of the team was a help; maybe they didn’t get enough credit for beating the Cats the previous week; most put it down to the Cats being bad and not tackling; the Dons are also pulling fully out of their tough patch of games in quick succession after playing ANZAC Day on Tuesday; the other bad part of the analysis was NOT labelling this as an EXTREME variance game – with the Bombers winning by so much, it was clearly an EXTREME; the Eagles were very poor with no special reason why; their highest SC score was 90!!!

MELB v NMFC MCG Sun May – 21 3.20pm CH 7

This is going to be an EXTREME variance game; see Penny’s comments below; the win by Melbourne is something akin to a team pulling out a Herculean effort after losing players early to injury; eg Hawthorn 1990 versus Melbourne when they lost Dunstall and Brereton by quarter time when down by 13 points; then they pulled away to beat the Dees (similarly rated opponent) by 44 points; the following week, the Hawks lost to then lowly Fitzroy (Hawks had 6 wins then to the Lions 2) by 14 points; expect the Dees to have a down weekend and lost despite being favourites; they are short on talls and the Roos should be able to exploit this; the Roos will win so long as they can break even in the midfield; Roos by 2 points
Match Review: Roos were tipped by 2 points and they won by 14; analysis was excellent – with the Dees fairly firm favourites; the Roos have now made it 16 wins on the trot against the Dees; but maybe this win was more about the letdown by the Dees (see above) rather than the long winning streak; Salem was suspended for an elbow on Higgins in 2Q and also played his worst game for a while – maybe the incident adversely affected him; the other thing is that the ruck situation is really starting to bite with the Dees; Goldstein won the hit-outs 61 to 18 against the fill-in Pedersen

FREO v CARL Subiaco Sun May – 21 4.40pm Fxtl

Again, rain likely to clear by game time; the Dockers were going to be the Gauntlet tip and still may be; but their kick after the siren win is a negative – with such teams underperforming the following week as a rule; having said that, the Blues could also be due for a downer after their 2 game winning streak was halted last weekend; this may balance out any potential flatness by the Dockers; Freo to win by 21 points
Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 21 points and they won by 35; analysis was pretty good, but the Blues got banged up during the game; the question is: did that cost the Blues the game or not?  A bit hard to tell; it appeared that the Dockers turned things around at QT anyway; there is always a danger of a team winning with a kick after the siren having a downer the following week; the Dockers sure started like they were still celebrating Mundy’s winning goal against the Tigers; the Blues have been very competitive for a month or so now and have often done quite well in Perth 

CERTS: Crows; plus Dockers (only because the streak is short – if you are on a long streak now, the Crows only would be a good way to go) (both won)

GAUNTLET: probably the Dockers (CONFIRMED RELUCTANTLY ON FRIDAY) but pick the Crows if you can (this website has already used up Adelaide); a bold tip would be North Melbourne!!! (both won, but maybe the Roos was the better tip)

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): Tigers to win or to lose by less than 22 points (correct);  Roos to win or lost by less than 9 points (correct)

This round looks a bit tricky with few certs standing out (correct)

 

 

Round 9 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 8: OUCH; the Tigers didn’t even win; I am really annoyed at myself because there were other obvious targets – Port after the flying problems and other issues for the Suns; and then there was the likelihood of the Swans going coast to coast after breaking their duck for the year; sorry!!

This week I want to cover a few issues; it is rare for a team to begin the year 5-0 or a longer winning run and then lose 2 or more in a row; there have been 10 occurrences of it in the past 20 years and then three this year (Crows 6 then 2; Cats and Tigers 5 then 3); the others in history are:
Pies 1988 – 6 wins, 2 losses then a win but slightly underperforming
Dons 1991 – 5; 2; outperforming win
Dees 1994 – 5; 3; huge up in their win
Blues 1995 – 7; 2; huge up in their win
Cats 1999 – 5; 9; then a lucky win over the bottom team
Cats 2009 – 13; 2;  a win but slightly underperforming
Saints 2009 – 19; 2;  a win but slightly underperforming
Swans 2012 – 5; 2; huge up in their win
Port 2013 – 6; 5; then smashed new kids GWS
Dons 2013 – 7; 2; a slight UP in their win

Now hold that thought; next I go to shocking losses on and off Broadway; I will call a shocking loss one where the team underperforms (UPF) by 50 points or more; there have been many; an example off “off Broadway” would be the Hawks losing to the Suns by 86 points in QLD; the Crows losing to the Roos by 59 points in Tassie; it’s bad, but it’s not in everyone’s face like a Friday night game or the Channel 7 game of the day;
Let’s look at all these cases for 2017
Adelaide:
round 7 – lost to the Roos by 59 points; UPF by 95 points; off Broadway (Tassie)
round 8 – lost to the Dees by 41 points; UPF by 82 points; on Broadway (Adelaide)
Brisbane
round 6 – lost to Port by 83 points; UPF by 51 points; on Broadway (at home)
next week – lost to the Swans about as expected, but the Lions are a bottom team
Carlton
this is not exactly in scope, but R5 lost to Port by 90 points; UPF by 44 points;
this is included because it was on Broadway BIG TIME – the Blues only Friday night game for the year and they fluffed their lines;
Next week – beat the Swans at home in an upset – OPF (outperformed) by 46 points
Fremantle
round 2 – lost to Port by 89 points; UPF by 64 points off Broadway, but it triggered a massive change at Freo – and the end of Zac Dawson (didn’t mean to pick on him, but it indicated a new era)
Next week: beat the Dogs at home by 16 points; OPF by 48
Geelong:
round 6 – lost to Pies by 29 points; UPF by 55 points; on Broadway (MCG Sunday on TV), but dismissed as a blip a la the Crows’ first loss
round 7 – lost to the Suns by 25 points; UPF by 45 points; off Broadway and just out of the 50pts UPF scope
round 8 – lost to the Dons by 17 points; UPF by 40 points; on Broadway (Country game in City); the loss looked far worse than a 40pt UPF – see notes below
Okay, I won’t go through every one, but the most interesting is Hawthorn; they lost by 86 points to the Suns away (off Broadway); then faced the Cats on Easter Monday (very Broadway!); the Hawks have usually had close encounters in these games but they were slaughtered again by 86 points; the following week they responded and belted the Eagles at the MCG.

This week we have Geelong and Adelaide coming off Broadway type shockers; right now I trust the Crows far more than the Cats; the Cats are playing their first game in their new stand and there is a huge build-up for this behind the scenes; I expect that the result in the Cats / Dogs game will be healthy one way or the other – Cats or Dogs by over 4 goals; based on pure form, the Dogs should win by 4 – 6 goals; but the Cats have been hammered so badly that something is sure to happen (maybe very good or quite bad);

The Crows should hit back very hard against the Lions – especially early; and the Dees will be hard pressed to repeat their heroics with a lack of talls; so my main tip is for the Crows to be 4 goals up or more at quarter time and for the Roos to win

 

 

Round 10, 2017 (BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT!!)
All times are Eastern

Round 9 review: Super Tipping: 5 out of 8 (okay) for a total of 53 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking improved from 2,737 to 2,709 out of 41,383 
Certs: 2 out of 2 – with the Crows and Dockers winning; the streak is up to 3; ranking improved from 7,057 to 6,760 (top 30%) – and will have to slowly progress now

50/50: 2 out of 2  (with the Tigers losing by a small enough margin and the Roos winning) and now at 13/28 =  a poor but improving 46%

Early thoughts for round 10: the certs appear to be the Pies, Swans and Crows; others to be tipped would be the Cats, Saints, Dees, Dons, Roos and Eagles 

GAUNTLET continues; week 8 tip HAWKS won
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 3221 to 2,636/33966 left in the comp

Gauntlet tip this week is likely to be the Pies, but Swans and Crows are excellent options of you can tip them

 

Round 10 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
GEEL v PORT Geel Thur May – 25 7.20pm CH 7  GEEL  11  EXTREME
SYD v HAW SCG Fri May – 26 7.50pm Fxtl  SYD  30  HIGH
WBD v STK Docklands Sat May – 27 1.45pm Fxtl  WBD  14  EXTREME
MELB v GCS Alice Springs Sat May – 27 4.35pm Fxtl  MELB  14 EXTREME
RICH v ESS MCG Sat May – 27 7.25pm CH 7  ESS  8  EXTREME
ADEL v FREO Adel Sat May – 27 7.40pm Fxtl  ADEL  45  HIGH
COLL v BRIS MCG Sun May – 28 1.10pm Fxtl  COLL  40  HIGH
CARL v NMFC Docklands Sun May – 28 3.20pm CH 7  NMFC  19  HIGH
WCE v GWS Subiaco Sun May – 28 4.40pm Fxtl  WCE  25  HIGH

 

GEEL v PORT Geel Thur May – 25 7.20pm CH 7

This is a tough one to tip; there is no guide as to how well Port will come up after the trip the Shanghai; they have that to deal with (NOTHING on the Port website about the players condition – maybe no news is bad news), while the Cats have 2 x 6 day breaks to contend with – but consecutive home games in Geelong will help; the other query on the Cats is: can they keep up the good form against the Dogs?  The previous 3 weeks were very ordinary; while it is expected that they will play better that the down patch, they have not totally convinced the tipsters; as such, this will be an EXTREME variance game
Wingard will miss with a calf; that’s a blow for Port because he has been excellent; Cats by 11 points
Match Review: Cats were tipped by 11 points and they won by 2; analysis was barely passable; the worst part of it was that the EXTREME variance call was wrong – with the margin no more than 2 goals either way; Port fans would consider themselves a bit stiff to lose – with the Charlie Dixon “play on” call late in 4Q and Robbie Gray maybe missing out on a free or 2; here is the most likely explanation for the Dixon call – last weekend Goldy had a mark late in 4Q and went to line up from the pocket (with the Roos up by about 2 goals); he took his full time to line up and then turned around and passed to a team mate further away from goal; looks like the umps were warned to crack down on such things; from memory, Dixon was only the second player to be called for the 30 seconds rule when shooting for goal; maybe the Tomahawk had that happen to him as well prior to 2017.  As far as fitness / freshness went, each team seemed to be equally well prepared; just back to the Cat’s patchy form – maybe they planned to be UP for R9-11 for the first three home games against quality opposition; they may have been in a heavier training phase in R6-8 for the “easy” games against the Pies, Suns and Dons; now that Port has shown us how they handled the recovery from Shanghai, the Suns will be watched with interest

 

SYD v HAW SCG Fri May – 26 7.50pm Fxtl

The Swans have hit form with a vengeance recently – with back to back big wins in Melbourne; they are a team that tends to get on a roll; they look the goods here – the Hawks have had 7 changes in two weeks and this is highly unusual for them; it appears that they are taking the opportunity to give VFL players a chance to show what they have got; Kieran Jack is still not back for Swans and nor are any of the 4 players the Hawks lost last week to injury; Swans just certs and by 30 points
Match Review: Swans were tipped by 30 points but the Hawks won by 6; analysis was not that great – always the case when a CERT loses; the Swans did have some excuses – losing Lloyd and Reid early; this partly explains the loss; the other aspect is that the Hawks seemed UP for this contest (see R11 preview below) and got the jump on the Swans; under normal circumstances, they would have been overrun, but the Swans were down 2 men and still could’ve won had Mills made better use of the ball from the 50 with just over 2 minutes to go; SORRY!!

 

WBD v STK Docklands Sat May – 27 1.45pm Fxtl

Both teams lost last week, but the Saints were the more disappointing; this is a real critical game – with both teams similarly placed; the big rumour early Thursday was that Cloke was going to be dropped (true) and replaced by Roughead (who is an emergency – with English being picked for his first game); this was a strange decision; this is such a huge game that the variance is marked as EXTREME; Newnes got concussed last week and the Saints may need to test him before he plays; Stringer hasn’t made it back yet; Dogs by 14 points and a game to avoid
Match Review: Roos were tipped by 2 points and they won by 14; analysis was fair; the EXTREME variance call was borderline, so that was okay; Roughead came in as a late replacement for Smith; Bevo was asked about this in the presser (if Roughy was always going to play); he said that Smith was doubtful on Friday night but the call wasn’t fully made until Saturday; roughy’s stats were so-so – 17 hit-outs (Boyd 9 and English 3) and 56 SC points; Longer had 55 hit-outs for the Saints; looks like the Saints have hit the wall a bit; no problems for Newnes, though – who scored 138 SC points; after listening to the pressers, still not sure why the Saints were not a bit more competitive.

 

MELB v GCS Alice Springs Sat May – 27 4.35pm Fxtl

Pearce Hanley is back!!! but the club says he will play NEAFL this week; then Gazza’s shoulder doesn’t come up and now Hanley is in the selected side; Swallow back is a big “IN”; the Suns lost Rosa and Ah Chee to injury for the Shanghai game and neither player made it back; the Dees are struggling with the lack of Gawn, back-up Spencer and tall forward Hogan; it gives Witts a chance to dominate for the Suns; the Suns were really poor in China, but maybe it was just a doomed trip – going cheap and then getting stuck at Singapore on the runway; they must have some chance on a neutral venue; this is an EXTREME variance game and one to avoid if you can; given that the Dees were terrific against the Crows and then patchy last week – if they win this one well, they may do it by flying out of the blocks; but the big man problem causes the confidence in the tip to be low; Dees by 14 points
Match Review: Dees were tipped by 14 points and they won by 35; analysis was pretty good overall; the best was that the variance was called EXTREME; the Suns seemed to lack leadership when the tide turned against them; the bad part of the analysis was expecting that a Dees win might come from them flying out of the blocks; in fact, they were 30 points down in 3Q and then got on an unstoppable roll; the INS were a problem for the Suns; Hanley was clearly underdone but was picked because of those unavailable; Swallow came back from injury and will be better for the run; and debutante Brodie only scored 32 SC

 

RICH v ESS MCG Sat May – 27 7.25pm CH 7

This match is intriguing; the tigers could be alone on top of the ladder had they kicked an extra goal in each of the past 3 matches; but ALAS ALADDIN and ALAMP; they did not; now they sit in 7th spot; they led very late in the past two and were in front just before mid 4Q against the Dogs;  having lost three close ones in a row, they may be due for a downer; Bomber Bellchambers (the better ruckman but on a limited pre-season) comes in for the ill Leuenberger; this move increases the variance – the move might be a huge bonus or maybe the players may need time to adjust to him; and how should we rate the Bombers? did they just catch teams at right time? And can they sustain their good form; maybe YES, but it is uncertain; Dons by 8 points in an EXTREME variance game.
Match Review: Bombers were tipped by 8 points but the Tigers won by 15; analysis was not hat great; it was expected that the Tigers may be in a long slump, but they pulled away to win; they won the inside 50s 71 to 42 and won by 1:9 – maybe should’ve won by more; the Bombers turned the ball over too much, according t the coach  – who said the Richmond pressure was good; he also said the players went into their shells a bit; the variance call was wrong – with the game playing out in a narrow band (even though the Bombers kicked the first 3 and then lost)

 

ADEL v FREO Adel Sat May – 27 7.40pm Fxtl

Note that Sandilands and Langdon were declared out for the Dockers on Wed; this means that the Crows are total certs; the Crows appear to be bac on track; the Dockers played in poor conditions last weekend and this may be a minus for their chances this weekend; Crows by 45 points and the certs of the week
Match Review: Crows were tipped by 45 points and they won by 100; analysis was reasonable; the variance call was incorrect; the 100 point margin made the variance EXTREME; the Dockers were simply gone from the start after the rain last week and this week; that, and the fact that the Crows are back in full form now

 

COLL v BRIS MCG Sun May – 28 1.10pm Fxtl

Pies look to be certs here as the Lions limp towards their much needed bye; high draft pick Scharenberg finally comes in for Collingwood; meanwhile the Lions lose Claye Beams and drop 3 others; Pies are certs and to win by 40 points
Match Review: Pies were tipped by 40 points and they won by 45; analysis was reasonably good; many think the Pies should have won by more had they kicked straighter; this time it didn’t cost them a win

CARL v NMFC Docklands Sun May – 28 3.20pm CH 7

The Blues copped injuries last week in the wet; it makes it a tough task to come back from WA and win this one; the Roos dominated in the big man department and got over the line last weekend; the Blues have kept on being competitive recently and , as such, are give a small chance in this contest; Cripps and Murphy both copped knocks last week but are selected to play; not sure if they are both 100% but the Blues have an open training session this Saturday!! Cunnington hurt his knee last week but played on; the club assures us that he will play, but there may be some query on him as well; Roos by 19 points
Match Review: Roos were tipped by 19 points and they won by 17; analysis was mixed; the variance call was wrong – should’ve been EXTREME; and it seems that the Blues were a bit lucky to get that close – with the Roos havng njury cpncerns with Cunnington, Gibson and Dumont

 

WCE v GWS Subiaco Sun May – 28 4.40pm Fxtl

The Eagles are on a bit of a boom bust cycle with wins at home and losses away barring the win at Port; let’s call the cycle wins at home and losses in Vic; this cannot continue if the Eagles are to make the top four; they play a team way down on personnel here and this will be enough (+ HG advantage) to tip them in this one; the Giants injury quotient is dangerously high at 23; the Eagles are at a modest 11; it almost puts the game out of reach for GWS; Eagles by 25 points and almost certs, but not quite
Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 6 points but the Giants won by 8; analysis was  poor; the Giants excelled under difficult circumstances; there were 2 late withdrawals for the Eagles (Shuey – replaced by Karpany 49SC) and Le Cras – replaced by Hutchings 66 SC; the Giants lost Scully – replaced by Mohr 50 SC; Kennedy got injured late for the Eagles and it was a highly entertaining game; but it finally killed off any thoughts of an Eagle flag – and maybe of a top 4 finish; Giants are going well but riding a fine line with injury concerns

 

 

 

CERTS: Crows (correct); plus Pies (correct) and Swans (incorrect); thrill-seekers may consider the Eagles, but not at this stage for this website; on Sunday morn Roos (correct) and Eagles (incorrect) added as certs, but only in view of the Swans losing and Penny’s note below on Dockers and Dons

GAUNTLET: Pies are the tip (correct); this is a good week to tip the Crows or Swans as well – and maybe the Eagles – but lots of good home games for the Eagles are coming up

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): Essendon to win (incorrect); Eagles to win by more than 14 points (incorrect)

This round has a few tough ones to pick, but looks easier than some recent rounds

 

Round 10 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 9: almost perfect on the Roos and Crows; Roos won, but I was being too smart alecky on the Crows game; I should have just gone for the Crows to win big!

This week I want to look at the byes; in recent years there has been several examples of teams playing VERY poorly 2 games before a bye; some examples of this are
Bris R9 2015 (-32 = 32 points worse than expected)
(the Dogs bucked this trend on the same day but there was a stronger technical issue n play which overrode the “2 before bye” effect)
Freo R10, 2015 (-36)
Ess R10, 2015 (-64)

Coll R11, 2016 (-63)
Rich R11, 2016 (-55)

Ess R12, 2016 (-48)
Swans  R12, 2016 (-42)
Eagles  R12, 2016 (-41)
Melb R12, 2016 bucked the trend but they were playing their “Grand Final” against a Collingwood side that was temporarily shot

Geel bucked the trend R13, 2016 – need to investigate if this is an anomaly or something else was at play
GWS R13, 2016  (-36 but still won)

Last weekend, there were 6 “2 before bye” teams:
Saints and Swans – who played each other with Saints at -57
Blues (slightly worse, but may have had excuses)
Bris (-33)
Melb (-26, but had another technical at play)
WBD (-24)

This week “2 before bye” teams are Cats, Roos, Tigers and Eagles; the opponents of three of them have potential problems:
Cats plat Port and they fly back from China
Roos play Blues who played in very poor conditions in Perth last weekend
Eagles play GWS who are knocked about
This leaves the Tigers; I expect them to lose to the Bombers by 3 goals or more – even though this is a virtual 50/50 game

Back to the Blues and Dockers and playing in the rain – plus losing players to injury – I expect both to underperform this weekend – Dockers to lose by more than 7 goals and Blues to lose by more than 4

 

Round 11, 2017
All times are Eastern

Early thoughts for round 11: the certs are hard to find here; no absolute ones tipped just yet; early selections would be Port, Crows, Eagles, Giants, Richmond and Dockers – but  tough round

GAUNTLET continues; week 10 tip PIES won
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 2,636 to 2,370/33966 left in the comp

Gauntlet tip this week is likely to be the Tigers, but the Giants may also be a possibility

 

Round 11 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
PORT v HAW Adel Thur June – 1 7.50pm CH 7  PORT  31   HIGH
GEEL v ADEL Geel Fri June – 2 7.50pm CH 7  ADEL  5   HIGH
GCS v WCE Gold Coast Sat June – 3 1.45pm Fxtl  WCE  6   EXTREME
GWS v ESS Oly Park Syd Sat June – 3 4.35pm Fxtl  GWS  18   EXTREME
NMFC v RICH Docklands Sat June – 3 7.25pm CH 7  RICH  28   HIGH
FREO v COLL Subi Sun June – 4 4.40pm Fxtl  FREO  3   EXTREME
Byes: BRIS, CARL, MELB, STK, SYD, WBD

 

 

PORT v HAW Adel Thur June – 1 7.50pm CH 7

Dermott Brereton said that the Hawks are gone on Monday; that will be accepted on face value; what does a gone recent 2-time flag winner do? They look to win little premierships during the year – like beating the Swans last week; maybe a revenge game against the Suns next week – because the Suns were the team that beat them by 86 points to let the world know the Hawks were gone; in between is a trip to Port – the second road trip in a row on 2 x 6 day breaks; then factor in the injuries early to the Swans and it all points to a Port win; Port was very good last week after the China trip and the bye against the Cats – maybe could’ve won it; Port by 31 points and just barely certs; the one danger is that Port may have been really UP after the bye and then could be a bit flat; the home ground scenario should avert this possible disaster; and they are hardly likely to take the Hawks lightly
Match Review: Port was tipped by 31 points and they won by 51; analysis was fair; the CERT tip was safe at quarter time; the fact that Port was up by 62 to 3 at HT meant that the VARIANCE was EXTREME; the excuse for the Hawks was made by the coach – 2 IS travels in 6 days; but the other factor was that they were really UP for the Sydney game; Dixon is in a purple patch for the Power;  Port dominated early and then coasted to the line; they and the Suns may be benefiting from the early bye this weekend – playing teams who desperately need a break

 

GEEL v ADEL Geel Fri June – 2 7.50pm CH 7

The games form here on in are tipped without knowing the teams; but few major changes are expected in this contest; the main one is Lonergan almost certain to come back in after being rested last week; as mentioned above, the Cats might have been a bit lucky to win last week, but just got over the line; their two wins at the renovated venue have been good without being too convincing; the Crows have really hit back hard after back to back losses – with huge wins against the Lions away and then the Dockers in Adelaide; while the Dockers were “down and out” and ripe for the picking (see Penny’s columns on this page), it was still an excellent win; the Crows are the tip here, but it is fairly close to a line-ball tip; no doubt the Cats will have set themselves for the triplet of home games, but the Crows are probably the toughest of the 3 challenges; Crows by 4 points
Match Review: Crows were tipped by 3 points but the Cats won by 22; analysis was not that great; the Cats appeared to be really UP for their triplet of games at home in the new stadium (and may, in some way, account for their indifferent form in the 3 weeks previously); Laird copped an early knock and underperformed – despite staying on; Dangerwood scored 300 SC points and you aren’t going to beat the Cats too often if that happens; Scott Selwood has also been very good and tagged Sloane (S Selwood 101 SC to Sloane 89); the media experts are noting that Sloane has been tagged in their 3 losses.

 

GCS v WCE Gold Coast Sat June – 3 1.45pm Fxtl

The Suns totally ran out of gas last weekend – first up off the bye after the game in Shanghai; the coach din’t blame it on the trip to China, but this, compounded with the lack of players, contributed to the poor showing after half time; Hanley was not expected to play but was clearly underdone; so he should be improved this week; Ablett is considered a cert to return; and maybe Rosa also; the Eagles might get back Shuey and Le Cras (late withdrawals last week) and possible also Wellingham; it is a bit hard to know what to expect from each team now; but it is a game to avoid in terms of certainty; the unreliability factor for both is currently heading north; this is an EXTREME variance game – Eagles by 6 points
Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 6 points but the Suns won by 3; analysis was reasonable; the variance was borderline EXTREME – with the squiggly line going all over the place, but not over too much of a range; in the end the difference may have been the output of the INS (Gazza excellent, Rosa okay for Suns; Le Cras poor, others okay for Eagles); and Hanley really stepped up this week in his second week back

GWS v ESS Oly Park Syd Sat June – 3 4.35pm Fxtl

The Giants had their best win for the year – according to their coach; the big tick was for beating the Eagles away with so many injuries; based on this alone – one would expect the Giants to be able to easily handle the Bombers at home; but there is a danger that such a heroic win (last game Sunday n the west – to make it worse) may not be able to be repeated the following week; on to the Bombers – just when we thought they were the real deal, they were pretty poor against the Tigers; Scully is expected back for the Giants; given that they have such a long injury list, there are probably players in need of a rest (one coming in R13) who will be playing sore this weekend; this makes the tip a risky one in a game that looks like a foregone conclusion; Giants by 18 points but not certs and an EXTREME variance game
Match Review: Giants were tipped by 18 points and they won by 16; analysis was not as good as it looked; the variance was tipped as EXTREME, but just missed and was, in fact, HIGH; the Giants are the real experts this year at winning small when covering for injuries; the 9 million dollar man Kelly was the star of the show; the Bombers missed a chance to take advantage of a weakened Giants outfit.

NMFC v RICH Docklands Sat June – 3 7.25pm CH 7

The Roos have won 4 of 5 after losing the first 5 in a row; the 0-5 underrated them; the 4-1 since overrates them; so they are about where they deserve to be; their last 2 wins were when they got team at the right time – the Dees after they had a huge win over the Crows on the back of the Jesse Hogan cancer story; then they caught the Blues coming back from the Freo game in horrible conditions; last week, they had a few players with niggles and knocks in Dumont, Gibson and Cunnington; the latter was considered doubtful prior to the game and only scored 44 Sc points last week – the lowest of any North player; Dumont has been given the all clear by his club this week, but there are more doubts on the other two; watch for team selections on this or late changes; see Penny’s preview on the Tigers; this is a positive if she is correct because the Tigers will be the GAUNTLET tip (taking the riskier option than tipping the Giants or Eagles maybe); the Tigers will be expected to be freed up mentally after the win last week and are tipped by 28 points
Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 28 points and they won by 35; analysis was wonderful; most had this as a 50/50 game or maybe a small margin to the Tigers; re above North players under a fitness cloud – Cunnington underperformed again and surely must be less than 100%; Dumont and Gibson were okay; the Tigers definitely benefited from breaking the losing streak the previous week; the only slight minus was that the scoring trend was in the EXTREME variance range. Having Prestia come good was a big help fr the Tigers

 

 

FREO v COLL Subi Sun June – 4 4.40pm Fxtl

The Dockers had a shocker last weekend; they played in the rain at home Sunday R9 and both teams struggled early the following week.  The other team (Blues) played in the pristine Docklands conditions – while the Dockers endured another bout of rain. They were awful early and never recovered; this was a “rock bottom” type of performance by the Dockers and will, like the Eagles, be under the microscope in a big way this week; the big selection news here will be whether Sandilands and, to a lesser extent, Langdon come back in; Fyfe was being criticised in the media and has the potential to hit back hard this week; Dockers by 3 points, but an EXTREME variance game and one in which the team selections will be most critical!
Match Review: Freo was tipped by 3 points but the Pies won by 20; analysis was not that great; firstly the wrong team was tipped (although the tip would have gone the other way had it been known that Sandi was out); the Docker inclusions Langdon and debutante Ryan scored moderately; the Pies actually could’ve won by more; they copped injuries to Wells 3Q then Elliott and Goldsack in 4Q; Sandi’s replacement Griffin was beaten by Grundy in the ruck; it appears that the Dockers may be on a downer in recent times; the other minus was that the EXTREME variance call was incorrect – with the scoring range being basically between even and 4 goals up for the Pies

 

 

CERTS: Port (correct) and Tigers (the latter only because the streak is currently at zero) (correct)

GAUNTLET: Tigers – a risk but hopefully will set things up for the future (correct)

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): nothing Thursday and will confirm Friday (nothing done)

This round has a few tough ones to pick,despite there being only 6 games:

PICK 5: starts this week for the AFL: will go for the same as above, but tip Collingwood; the reason is that few have tipped the Pies – even though it is a close call (eliminated)

 

Round 11 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell
Reviewing my thoughts on round 10: for the second week running – almost perfect the Crows and Roos; the Crows won well (with Freo copping more rain) and then the Blues looked liked going the same way; I reckon I was a bit unlucky here – the Roos had Cunnington NQR and then injuries to Gibson and Dumont – who played it out but struggled a bit – helped the Blues get back into it; anyway I will call it a moral victory, but it was a “loss”

This week I will look at the Tigers; they won 5 straight and then lost 4 in a row; week 6 was a thrashing to the Crows and the other three were narrow losses; the stress was building up on the but they managed to win against the Bombers without being fantastic; this is exactly what they need to fire up the following week; the reason for this is that the pressure valve has been released; for this week, almost no-one is talking about them this week; expect them to come out of the blocks and lead at every quarter against the Roos; that’s my tip; there is one concern: the Tigers have lost 7 in a row to the Roos (if you ignore the R23 game 2015 when the Roos rested players and then beat the Tigers the following week; I fell like the technical on the Tigers breaking the run of four outs is stronger than the “bogey side” phenomenon; time will tell!!

 

Round 12, 2017
All times are Eastern

Round 11 review: Super Tipping: 3 out of 6 (not that great) for a total of 62 (including a bonus of 2) and ranking dropped from 3,380 to 4,374 out of 41,600 
Certs: 2 out of 2 – with Port and the Tigers winning well; the streak now at 2; ranking now at 7,445 (top 31%) – and will have to slowly progress now

50/50: none selected  (should’ve picked the Tigers) and now at 13/30 =  a poor 43%

Early thoughts for round 12: this is a tough round – with teams off the bye playing teams going to the bye and then Port and the Suns playing their third game since their R9 bye; the oddball games are
Crows off bye play Saints – going to the bye
Hawks to bye vs Suns
Lions off bye vs Freo to bye
Bombers to bye vs Port
Blues off bye vs Giants to bye
Dees off bye vs Pies to bye
Early tips would be Dogs, Crows, Hawks, Dockers, Port, Giants and Dees – with the most confident tips being Port and the Giants, but this is a round full of potential potholes!

 

GAUNTLET continues; week 11 tip TIGERS won (but forgot to put in tip so officially OUT)
https://tipping.afl.com.au/tipping/index.html#/gauntlet
there are now a down from 1,642 to 2,636/33966 left in the comp

Gauntlet tip this week is likely to be the Giants, but some consideration should be given to the Lions this week as a brave tip

PICK 5: eliminated – with 4 winners; many casualties in week 1 of the pick 5

 

Round 12 Venue Day Date Time TV Tip Margin Variance
SYD v WBD SCG Thur June – 8 7.20pm CH 7  SYD  6  HIGH
ADEL v STK Adel Fri June – 9 7.50pm CH 7  ADEL  38  HIGH
HAW v GCS MCG Sat June – 10 1.45pm Fxtl  HAW  15  EXTREME
BRIS v FREO Gabba Sat June – 10 4.35pm Fxtl  BRIS  4  EXTREME
ESS v PORT Docklands Sat June – 10 7.25pm CH 7  PORT  9  EXTREME
CARL v GWS Docklands Sun June – 11 3.20pm Fxtl  GWS  20  EXTREME
MELB v COLL MCG Mon June – 12 3.20pm CH 7  MELB  8 / 2 thurs  EXTREME

 

SYD v WBD SCG Thur June – 8 7.20pm CH 7

At the time of doing the analysis, this is the only team for which teams are available; there is a small window of opportunity between the announcement of the other teams, but this is too tight to add anything useful prior to the beginning of game 1 (by which many will need to have tipped).

Based on ladder position and general form, the Dogs look the goods; but!!! some things need to be noted: firstly, the Swans have been gradually piecing together their best team (well, a lot better than earlier in the season); Rampe is back; some mids are getting fitter; it should be remembered that Reid and Lloyd didn’t last long against the Hawks – head knocks early; both should be okay after the bye; the Swans also have the advantage of two matches in a row at home; the previous match was a double disaster; they were jumped by the Hawks and also had the early injury trouble; they almost got back into it, but just failed; that was one of Hawthorn’s “grand finals” for 2017 – since the Hawks aren’t going to have a shot at the flag this year; it is a similar story now for the Swans; they have no chance of the title, but will rather pick a few “grand final” games to win; surely this is one of them!!  The Dogs’ team is slightly weakened with 3 injuries; this swings the ledger slightly in favour of the Swans; Cloke’s return is a surprise – after not exactly banging the door down in the VFL

Swans by 6 points in a tricky game to tip; there is a lot of rain forecast for Sydney for Wed / Thurs; this could restrict scoring potentially
Match Review: Swans were tipped by 6 points and they won by 46; analysis was mixed; good to tip a winner, but – in hindsight – the Swans should have been tipped by more; the key was listening to coach Longmire’s midweek presser; he talked about the R2 loss to the Dogs and how some things went wrong+ lack of personnel  that night; it all pointed to the Swans being really UP and this was one of their “grand finals”; the Dogs surprised by keeping 3 talls despite the wet weather (Roughead 70 SC, Cloke 42, English 33); Adams went off for the Dogs in 3Q; Johanissen was pressured by the Swans and had a shocker  (21 SC); this game was over early!

 

ADEL v STK Adel Fri June – 9 7.50pm CH 7

See Penny’s comments below
The Crows (going to the bye) play the Saints off the bye; each time the Crows have lost this year Sloane has been heavily tagged; the Saints captain Geary said that they don’t intend to do this. ??? Of course, the longer a tactic is used, the more likely the Crows will be able to counter it in some way. Lever is listed as a test for the Crows but is expected to play; Riewoldt has been ruled out already; Webster is a test – so watch for team news; the Crows look the goods here; the loss to Geelong should work in their favour – the Friday night Shocker syndrome – everyone will have picked them to bits on Saturday morning and the pain felt made all the worse by Port’s demolition early of Hawthorn the previous evening; the only risk on the Crows would appear to if the Saints jump them fresh off the bye; Crows by 38 points and certs of the week
Match Review: Crows were tipped by 38 points and they won by 57; analysis was pretty good here and the Crows were correctly tipped as certs; the Crows were ONE team going to the bye that won; it seems that playing at home is a help when going to the bye – the local crowd keeps the team UP for that final pre-bye match; the Saints had the worst of the injuries on the day; Jacobs soldiered on after a shoulder knock before HT; the Saints had knocks to Weller, Brown, Wright and Carlisle – all of hom scored less than usual SC points; this may explain the discrepancy between the tip and the result

 

HAW v GCS MCG Sat June – 10 1.45pm Fxtl

The Hawks’ coach complained of the back to back interstate trips and the 6 day break as one reason the Hawks were down 62-3 at HT last weekend; the other factor was that they were really UP for the Swans game and caught them a the right time; then down for the Port game; can they get up again?  why would this game be of special interest? well, maybe because the Suns had their first ever win over the Hawks earlier this year and that was the game that told the whole world that the Hawks are gone; this could bite big for Hawthorn; if it does, then they may win by coming out all guns blazing early; the other argument is that the Suns will have had the pressure valve released with the narrow win over the Eagles and may, themselves, play with some flair and run; it means that the early part of the game may be telling – with a big comeback unlikely; Hawks by 15 points but another EXTREME variance game
Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 15 points but the Suns won by 16; analysis was not great; as the game approached, the wrongness of the tip was magnified; the tip for the Hawks was too much based on revenge for the R3 debacle; when Breust and Hodge went out prior to the game  – replaced by Hartung 76 SC and Stewart 43 SC (vs Miller and Ah Chee for the Suns – replaced by Ainsworth 73 SC and Lonergan 88 SC) , the tip should’ve been changed; Hodge was particularly significant in this game; then Gibson went out early and Brand (a 198cm tall defender) copped a knock; the Hawks spent a lot of time putting an extra player back to stop Lynch getting off the leash; but then May slaughtered them as the loose man down the other end; as for the Suns, they fulfilled the EXTREME variance prediction by going from a goal down to 43 points up – back to 9 points up and looking shaky – before kicking the sealer; Gazza was the star of the show

 

BRIS v FREO Gabba Sat June – 10 4.35pm Fxtl

See Penny’s comments below
Good news for the Lions – Rockliff is expected back; he and Beams have hardly played together this year; it gives them a potent midfield; Sandilands was tested last week and missed the Collingwood game; he has already been ruled out for this game; it gives Brisbane a real chance; the Lions have lost 9 in a row since their upset R1 win over the Suns; the bye was a plus because it was 1 week where the Lions weren’t being talked down after a loss; they will be tipped to cause a huge upset here; the Dockers appear to be limping to the line; Fyfe was below his brilliant best last weekend after coming under a lot of scrutiny; the coach said he is sore at present; it is expected that the Lions will have a huge build-up for this one and are tipped to win by 4 points; rain is forecast
Match Review: Lions were tipped by 4 points and they won by 57; analysis was mostly excellent; firstly, it’s always good to tip an outsider who wins; in this case, the Dockers were favoured by about 3 goals; in play, the game was over half way through 1Q; the Dockers were simply cooked – coming into the bye on a 6 day break and their longest away trip; Grey did a hammie early and Fyfe has been sore, according to his coach; with Rockliff coming back, it was probably the best team the Lions had put on the park all year; of course, the huge blow-out was unexpected, but that also confirms the EXTREME variance call – again, the variance call was clinched early – whe the Lions led 6 goals to 1.

 

ESS v PORT Docklands Sat June – 10 7.25pm CH 7

One would expect the Bombers to be one of the teams most desperate for the bye; maybe those players who missed 2016 might need the break; that is their problem; but they should get James Kelly back; Port have a potential over-confidence problem; they had a nice Thursday night win; then saw the Crows get done and have many saying that Port is the best team in SA; the nice long rest is not really ideal prior to their bye; having said that, they may well be on an unstoppable roll; Wingard is a chance to return for this game; the doubts make it an EXTREME variance game; Port by 9 points
Match Review: Port was tipped by 9 points but the Bombers won by 70; analysis was poor in most facets; the wrong team was tipped and the margin was off the charts compared to the general consensus of about a 3 goal win to Port; but herein lies the positive – Port was NOT tipped as a cert and the variance was correctly labelled EXTREME; the EXTREME was confirmed before QT!!  What happened?  The main thing was last week in SA; Port walloped the Hawks (especially early) on Thursday and then the Crows lost a 50/50 game to the Cats by 22 points but it “felt” like a much bigger loss and the game was cooked at 3QT; so all weekend everyone in SA was pumping up Port’s tyres and saying that the Crows were number 2 in SA; the winning team apparently became complacent while the loser came into R12 extremely fired up; the 1Q scores were:
ESS     7:6
PORT 1:3
and in Adelaide:
ADEL 5:6
STK 1:1
Another team going to a bye who under-performed when playing interstate; some rumours of Port players being sore or looking sore; Wines got a jab for a sore knee and played on, while Hartlett and Jonas having minor issues; the 9 day break between games just before a bye is probably not ideal

 

CARL v GWS Docklands Sun June – 11 3.20pm Fxtl

See Penny’s comments below
This appears to be a straightforward win for the Giants – but they are desperate for the bye, so that they can recover from their long injury list (and then start getting some players back); Lobb and Stevie J are some chance to return; the Blues have a shorter injury list and are coming off the bye; the Blues fought back we1l against the Roos in R10, but may have got the Roos at the right time; these factors cause a small degree of uncertainty – so the variance will be EXTREME and the Giants not tipped as certs; but their greater talent means that they will be tipped by 20 points
Match Review: Giants were tipped by 20 points but the Blues won by 1; analysis was mixed; the wrong team was tipped and the EXTREME variance call was wrong – with the score tracking in a  narrow band; the positive was that the Giants weren’t tipped as certs; this was a good win by the Blues; they lost Alex Silvagni early; Liam Jones went down back and starred; the Giants had Davis hobbling early; Kreuzer was great for the Blues; it was another case of a team going to the bye playing interstate and doing poorly; the one plus was that the Giants weren’t tipped as certs

 

MELB v COLL MCG Mon June – 12 3.20pm CH 7

See Penny’s comments below
With so long between game 1 and this one, it makes it tough to tip – especially when the teams seem pretty well matched – or rather, they have similarly large injury problems; the Pies lose Wells, Goldsack and Elliott from last week’s great win; Fasolo may possibly return, according to afl.com.au; Spencer is a chance to play and this is critical; the Pies problems are stated above – losing 3 players at once (albeit from different parts of the ground); the Dees are lacking talls – with 2 rucks and Hogan out; that is why a B-grader like Spencer is unusually critical; if he can play well, then the Dees would be tipped with some confidence; the other problem for the Pies is that they may struggle to come up after such a heroic win with rotation problems; Dees by 8 points and an EXTREME variance game; Thursday update – Spencer ruled out; Dees by 2 points and don’t like the game from a tipping viewpoint, but should be great viewing
Match Review: Dees were tipped by 2 points and they won by 4; analysis was very good; the right team was tipped & the variance was rightly forecast as EXTREME; the actual end result – getting that to within 2 points – that was more good fortune than good analysis; it appears that Spencer wasn’t quite ready for the Dees and was in the 25 as a back-up for Watts (passed fitness test and played); as it turned out, Watts copped a knock early, played on – then both won with a late goal and saved the game a minute later on the defensive goal line; a great effort; Ex Dee Dunn copped a late knock; the Pies did better than most other teams going to the bye; the 8 day break probably helped – given that they were coming back from Perth

CERTS: Crows (correct)

GAUNTLET: for those who have followed the tips all along – if you keep following the tips and they are successful, you might end up with the 1K alone; so from now on, there will be a dual stream of Gauntlet tips:
the REAL tip is Brisbane (correct); this is very  risky but may be Brisbane’s best chance to win a game; the other stream says to tip the Giants (incorrect); the plus here is that they are more likely to win; the minus is that they desperately need a rest; are you a thrill-seeker or want to survive as long as possible?  take your pick

50/50 (where the experts have it wrong): Hawks to win by over 12 points (incorrect); Lions to win or to lose by less than 15 points (correct); Blues to win or to lose by less than 28 points (correct)

This round is tough and greatly affected by the bye (correct)

 


Round 12 thoughts – by Penny Dredfell

Reviewing my thoughts on round 11: almost perfect again – not quite good enough, but a moral victory of sorts; just trying to work out why the Tigers didn’t excel early – as expected; maybe the Roos are their bogey side and it took a while for them to believe; overall I am happy with my work on this one

This week I will look at the teams going to the bye that play team coming off the bye.  when byes first came in, the team coming off the bye lost almost every time; gradually, teams adjusted their breaks to be better. Teams off the bye may face all sorts of permutations – playing a team going TO the bye; playing a team that is two weeks after the bye; or three weeks perhaps.

This week, we have the following teams going to the bye that are playing teams coming off the bye.  The “to the bye” teams are:
Crows at home to the Saints
Dockers away vs the Lions
Giants away at the Blues
Dees at “home” vs the Magpies

The byes have been played in clumps since 2012; prior to that, the byes would be scattered throughout the season – and I think any data from 2011 or earlier would muddy the waters.

Looking at the data – is is the opposite to what I expected; I had noted that some teams can tend to drop off badly when well behind when the are coming up to a bye; but when the teams coming up to the bye are playing teams OFF the bye, the result is different.  The teams going to the bye went like this quarter by quarter:
1Q: on average lost it by 7 points (-7.0)
2Q: -3.5
3Q: -0.2
4Q: 1.3

For the entire game, they underperformed by 4.5  (ie -4.5)

The sample size is a healthy 21.
Bottom teams going into the bye (GTTB) averaged -20.7 in 1Q (versus an expected 1Q of -7.5 due to the fact that they were playing mostly superior teams – so still a big minus).  They were also -14.7 for 2Q (expected -7.5)and, for the entire game, bottom teams were -9.6 vs expectations

Mid rated teams GTTB were about as expected 1Q, but were poor in 3Q and 4Q – for the whole game they were -5.5.

The top rated teams GGTB did okay in 1Q but not when the poor opposition is taken into account. but they finished strongly and were +5.5 for the entire game; this is a small sample size of 4 however.

Other things of note: teams GTTB playing away were -11.2 in Q1 (about 9 points worse than expected) and were -6 in Q2. overall they underperformed by 11.3 (ie -11.3)

Teams GTTB playing bottom rated teams slightly overachieved overall; surprisingly, teams playing against mid rated teams were -16.5 overall against expectations and -19.1 in 1Q in terms of points scored (versus expectation of -5)

Teams  GTTB playing against top rated teams all overachieved – none of whom caused an upset win and there was 1 team that won (Freo at home to the Cats 2014, but the Dockers were slight favourites due to home ground advantage)

I really loved compiling this data, but much of it might be useless for us this week.
Crows (top) at home to the Saints (mid)
Dockers (mid) away vs the Lions (top)
Giants (top) away at the Blues (bottom)
Dees (mid) at “home” vs the Magpies (mid)

Extrapolating out the data – I would expect the Crows to finish strongly and win the second half by more than 4 goals.
I expect the Dockers to be trailing at quarter time with a good chance for the Lions to cause an upset.
Was also tempted to tip the Pies to get off to a flier, but too unsure about that so will just leave it as above on the Crows and Dockers games.