Rounds 9-16, 2018

Round 8 review & round 9 comments – by Penny Dredfell (added 17 May 2018 after team selection)
Well, I came unstuck in a big way in tipping the Bombers; they were poor and, in hindsight, I think I know where I went wrong:
the Blues saw this as a big chance for a win and lifted; I put too much stake in the Bombers being better without a half fit Joe Daniher; and also, the Bombers have two other problems – second year up from the return of the 12 banned players ; and also the fact that the have re-signed the coach recently and this often triggers a form slump; an example of this is when the Cats re-signed Chris Scott late April last year; the Cats then went on a 3 game losing streak – to the Pies, Suns away and Bombers; this year the Bombers re-singed John Worsfold after just 1 game (an upset win over the Crows) and since they have lost 6 of 7 – with the one win being over Port without Ryder and SPP having just been suspended.  The loss by the Bombers to the Blues blew me out of the Gauntlet:
I must not be too confident about Essendon
I must not be too confident about Essendon
times 100

No time to wallow in self-pity; more games are upcoming; for those who avoided my tip and are alive in the Gauntlet – this is a very dangerous round; lets look at it; the big danger games I see involve the S. A. teams; they played in a Showdown last week and Port won in a thriller – virtually like a kick after the siren win; actually, Motlop showed great poise to kick a goal and the clock stopped at 21 seconds – with his team 5 points in front;

Here is the case against Port: teams that win on a kick after the siren can often underperform in a big way the next week; next, the Crows suffered injuries on the day and were pretty banged up before that; next, what happened between Port and the Suns last year? Firstly, the Suns appeared to stuff up their travel plans – which caused disunity in the club and also the players had a less than ideal trip to China (slow boat may have been better); the Suns were humiliated in the flagship game; next game, the Suns played against Port in Adelaide in the final game of the season; this time the Suns had a huge injury list and the season was totally cooked; still, it was another humiliation; this is the time for revenge; the Suns’ injury list may be too long and they may be too travel weary to do it; but I just am not as keen on Port as most are; also, if the Suns have any fight in them, it should show early.

The Crows have an injury quotient of 24(3 points for top players missing or not match fit enough to play; 2 for regular players and 1 for fringe players); anything over 20 is a big danger sign; the Dogs also have injuries and have won 3 in a row – albeit unimpressively against Blues, Suns and Lions; I would be tipping the Crows, but they, like Port are too highly fancied.

My Gauntlet tips in order would be Swans, Dees and Cats and then maybe the Roos next; again, the Giants have an injury quotient on 23 – too high and it may have killed off a top four chance for them already.

I would be totally stunned if all 8 favourites have won leading up to the 50/50 Eagles / Tigers match; in summary, I tip the Dogs to win or to lose by less than 3 goals and I tip the Suns to lead at quarter time in Shanghai