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Team Previews 2015 AFTER R2

Team Previews 2015 after R2

Added 14 Apr 2015

This preview is done after R2 and before R3. Some people may need this as a guide for predicting the end of year ladder.

Based on the first 2 games and team injury lists, the report below goes through every game for every club from R3 – R23 and assigns a percentage chance for each game.  EG The Roos and Port get 0.5 of a win each for their R3 encounter; the Eagles get 0.2 of a win and the Dockers 0.8 of a win.

This method gives the closest fit to the actual end result – especially for the teams at the extreme ends of the ladder.  One could make a case for St Kilda not winning another game for the rest of the year (despite their excellent R2 win) because they may possibly be outsiders in every game they play.  But, even if they are outsiders in every game, it is highly unlikely that they will lose the next 20 games in a row.

If we assume that they have as low as a 10% chance to win each game (and their chances will be rated MUCH better in many games), the probability of them losing the next 20 games in a row are 0.9 to the power of 20 = 0.12 or a 12% chance.  If we assign a 30% chance of winning in 4 games and 10% chance in all the rest, the probability of them losing all 20 games are 0.045 = a 4.5% chance.

If you were to merely mark each game as a win or a loss (as most do and most AFL ladder predictors do), you may end up with the Saints on 1 win only.

Quick Summary
Here is the amended final 18 for 2015.  The higher the variance, the more likely teams may be to surprise (either to the upside or the downside)

The final ladder is:

top 4
Hawks          16.2 wins

Swans          16.1 wins

Dockers       16.1 wins

Crows          15.3 wins

 

5-8

Roos            14.1 wins (high variance)

Bombers      13.1 wins (extreme variance)

Port              12.7 wins

Tigers          12.3 wins (high variance)

 

9-12

Cats             11.3 wins (high variance)

Eagles          9.8 wins injuries have killed their finals hopes

Dogs            9.9 wins

Pies              9.6 wins (high variance)

 

13-16

Suns            8.8 wins

Giants          8.1 wins

Dees             7.2 wins

Blues           7.1 wins (high variance)

 

17-18

Lions           5.9 wins

Saints          4.4 wins


The extreme variance for the Bombers is added because it is unsure how they will progress through the season.  Will they run out of puff?  Will they have severe highs and lows (as often in recent years)?


The high variance teams are either vulnerable in terms of depth or injuries.


Many talls for the Roos have had interrupted pre-seasons and it may catch up with them at some stage (even though they have lots of tall players).


The Tigers rely heavily on Ivan Maric staying fit and healthy.


The Cats have several talls with injury and fitness queries.


The Pies have a long injury list and could potentially finish much higher with a fit list, but they could plummet if the injury troubles worsen.


In reality, some team will hit their straps suddenly and exceed all current expectations; and another team will cop significant injuries and drop down further than expected.

 

Hopefully, this helps you a little with ladder predictions