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99,537 laps of the MCG

Added 19 Oct 2011

 

Longggey reporting for www.longggey.com

It is Wednesday the 19th of October and we are at the MCG.

A woman has, apparently, just completed 99,537 laps of the MCG (one for each person attending on Grand Final day).  Here she is now.

 

“Excuse me, madam”

“It’s not madam, it’s Penny; Penny Dredfell”.

LONGGGEY:        Ah, Penny, we meet in person at last; have you really done 99,537 laps of the MCG?

PENNY DREDFELL:           There’s a decimal point missing there somewhere.

L:         Congratulations on your grand final tip.  Cats by 30 points after a close first half!! Tell me – at what point in the game did you think the cup had slipped from the Pies’ grip?

PD:        The final siren

L:        You weren’t sure until the final siren?

PD:        The final siren on Saturday 07 Oct 2010 when the Pies beat the Saints.  I decided there and then that they would not win the 2011 grand final.

L:        Let me put it another way – at what point did you think the Cats had it won?

PD:        We all know that there is ONE DAY IN SEPTEMBER.  For me, that day was the very first final.  Whoever won out of the Cats and Hawks was going to get the easy road to the grand final. From my viewpoint, Geelong walked off the ground with the flag in the bag

L:        What about the 2nd quarter of the grand final 2011 when the Pies kicked away to a bit of a lead and Pods went off injured?

PD:        There was a small window of opportunity for the Pies to open up a match winning lead.  But they needed to be at least 4 goals up at half time to have a realistic chance.  The technical analysis points to teams in their position getting overrun by an average of 30 points in the last half of a grand final.  When the Cats clawed it back to 3 points at half time, the Pies had fired their last shot.

L:        So, if the Pies failed to win the big one after such a dominant season, where to from here?

PD:        They would be my early tip for the flag in 2012.  There have only been 3 teams to finish the year with a percentage of over 160.  Eagles in 1991; Cats in 2008 and Pies in 2011.  The Eagles and Cats both lost the grand final and then won the next year.  Incidentally, both the Eagles and the Cats were behind at half time in 1992 and 2009 respectively.  This loss will give the Pies a renewed sense of focus.  There is the change of coach and Big Man index to consider before I announce my analysis for next year; but the charts at this stage are pointing to the Pies for 2012.

L:         Big Man index?

PD:      It’s another little theory I am working on.  More news to come on this in due course.

L:         And what of the Cats?

PD:     They just crossed over the line in terms of grand final winning margins.  Because they won by over 6 goals, they are highly likely to be outscored in the 2nd half of the 2012 grand final if they make it.  And they may not even make it.  If they win the 2012 grand final in the modern draft and salary cap era, they could lay claim to being the greatest team of all.  But my tip is the Pies in 2012 at present, but subject to review.  Their major coaching changes provide a little cloud of doubt over their 2012 season.