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End of Year Ladder Predictor R12-22

This section will be updated weekly (that’s weekly with a double E!)

Updated 23 Aug 2010 Normally, there are some intriguing scenarios for round 22 where the winning margins are critical.  Not so this year!  For example, the Swans are over 18% and one game behind the Dogs.  If the Dogs lose by 100 points to Essendon and the Swans beat the Lions by 100 points, they STILL won’t make up the percentage break.  And the Blues will automatically go ahead of Freo if they win (as they are ahead in percentage) and they will likewise go ahead of the Swans if they win and the Swans lose.

The top 4 is set in concrete unless the Eagles can beat Geelong.

 

Updated 16 Aug 2010 (this is the crossover point where the calculations done by 0.6 of a win, 0.3 of a win almost become irrelevant. 

The tables below review each game for each club and assign a percentage chance of winning. This then leads to a more accurate end of year ladder estimate.  Adjustments are made weekly as teams win or lose; and periodically for injuries and other relevant events.

EOY Ladder   Wins    Comments

COL    18.7     Only needs one win more for top spot

GEE    17.4     Likely to play Saints round 1 of finals 2 vs 3

STK     16        Likely to play Cats round 1 of finals 2 vs 3

WBD   14.8     One more win gets them the double chance

 

FRE     12.3     One more win likely to get them home final

CAR    11.9     Safe in top 8

SYD    12.1     Safe in top 8. Chance for home final

HAW  11.8     Safe in top 8

 

NOR   9.4       Mathematical

MEL    9.5       Mathematical

ADE    8.6       No finals

POR    8.3       No finals

 

ESS     7.8       No finals

BRI     6.8       No finals

RIC     6.3       No finals

WCE   4.3       Need to beat North + Cats to maybe avoid spoon

 

 

Pos      Team   %         Wins    +/- %   W+%   21        22        Tot

1          COL    146      16.5     0.7       17.2     0.8       0.7       18.7

2          GEE    147      15        0.7       15.7     0.7       1.0       17.4

3          STK     125      14.5                 14.5     0.9       0.6       16

4          WBD   130      13        0.5       13.5     0.5       0.8       14.8

 

5          FRE     110      12        -0.5      11.5     0.2       0.6       12.3

6          CAR    112      11        0.2       11.2     0.3       0.4       11.9

7          SYD    104      11                    11        0.5       0.6       12.1

8          HAW  105      10.5     0.2       10.7     0.8       0.3       11.8

 

9          NOR   85        9          -0.8      8.2       0.7       0.5       9.4

10        MEL    96        8.5                   8.5       0.5       0.5       9.5

11        ADE    93        8          0          8          0.2       0.4       8.6

12        POR    79        8          -0.5      7.5       0.5       0.3       8.3

 

13        ESS     81        7                      7          0.6       0.2       7.8

14        BRI     81        6                      6          0.4       0.4       6.8

15        RIC     71        6          -0.5      5.5       0.1       0.7       6.3

16        WCE   78        4                      4          0.3       0.0       4.3