End of Year Ladder Predictor
End of Year Ladder Predictor Updated 30 Aug 2011
The theory of applying percentage chances to each game becomes virtually meaningless in the last round or two of the season
So here is some mathematical snippets for ladder positions.
The Dons’ 7 point win gives them 2217 points for and 2217 points against for the year. This sums up their up and down performance perfectly – they broke even! This means that a > 100 point loss to the Swans will put them below Essendon on the ladder (chances of this occurring are ~ 1 in 1,000). Similarly, a Saints loss by > 194 points will put them below the Dons (just as unlikely).
With the Swans playing Saturday afternoon (and probably winning), it means that the Saints will jest need to win vs the Blues to clinch a home state final in week 1.
Further down the ladder, the Tigers will climb to 9th if they and the Dogs both win AND the Dees don’t win by too much. If the Dees win by ~23 points MORE than the Tigers win by, then they will go ahead of Richmond.
If the Roos win, however, they will finish 9th.
The Crows are a minuscule chance to go ahead of the Dogs, but need to win in Perth and for the Dogs to lose to Freo in order for that to happen.
A Port win coupled with A Suns loss will see Port climb off the bottom of the ladder
Per Round 23 items below
How it works.
The current ladder is taken and each team is given a bonus or penalty for their percentage. Then each team is allocated a score for every game through to the end of the year. 1 = a certain win; 0.7 = a 70% chance to win etc. The figures are based on bookies odds for the next round and then best estimates from there on, based on all factors considered at the time.
The final tally gives the approximate ladder at the end of the year. This method gives a truer picture compared to assigning a win or a loss (a 1 or a 0) for the games. As an example, the Blues are likely to be outsiders vs Collingwood and favourites in every other game they play for the year. The 1 and 0 theory would give them 7 wins and a loss. But because they are only 60 or 70% likely to win all of the games in which they are favourites, their actual win / loss record for the rest of the year adds up to 5 wins only.
Each week, the chart is adjusted after the results and the amended end of year ladder is calculated. This works well until the last 1 – 2 rounds of the year.
Right now, the Eagles are almost certs for 4th.
The Roos have a slim chance of making it.
Dons, Swans and Saints only need one win each to make it for sure
Team Wins Comments
1 COL 21.2 Beat Freo and claim top spot
2 GEE 19.2 finish 2nd unless Freo beat the Pies
3 HAW 18.2 Safe in 3rd
4 WCE 16.1 Win this week and 4th is theirs
5 CAR 15.1 Will cheer for the Lions this week!!
6 STK 12 Need 1 win to make finals
7 SYD 11.8 Need 1 win to make finals
8 ESS 11.5 Need 1 win to make finals
9 NOR 10.5 Needs 2 wins and other results to make finals
10 FRE 9 Mathematical chance only
11 WBD 8.9 Can finish as high as 9th only
12 MEL 8.7 Can finish as high as 9th only
13 ADE 7.9 Can finish as high as 9th only
14 RIC 7.8 Can finish as high as 10th only
15 BRI 4.6 Seems to have 15th sewn up
16 GCS 2.6 Tiny chance for spoon
17 POR 1.9 Tiny chance for 16th
Raw Data
Pos Team % Wins +/- % D+E 23 24 Tot
1 GEE 160 18 18 0.8 0.4 19.2
2 COL 179 19 0.7 19.7 0.9 0.6 21.2
3 CAR 134 14.5 14.5 BYE 0.6 15.1
4 HAW 145 16 0.4 16.4 0.8 1 18.2
5 WCE 126 15 -0.4 14.6 0.7 0.8 16.1
6 FRE 88 9 -0.4 8.6 0.1 0.3 9
7 SYD 106 10.5 0.2 10.7 0.2 0.9 11.8
8 ESS 100 10.5 0 10.5 1 BYE 11.5
9 MEL 83 7.5 -0.5 7 0.9 0.8 8.7
10 NOR 104 9 0.4 9.4 0.4 0.7 10.5
11 WBD 95 8 8 0.2 0.7 8.9
12 STK 108 10.5 0.5 11 0.6 0.4 12
13 RIC 85 7.5 -0.3 7.2 0.3 0.3 7.8
14 ADE 83 7 7 0.7 0.2 7.9
15 BRI 82 4 0.2 4.2 0.3 0.1 4.6
16 POR 61 2 -0.3 1.7 0 0.2 1.9
17 GCS 54 3 -0.5 2.5 0.1 0 2.6