Final Ladder 2013

End of year ladder after round 22, 2013

Data added 28 Aug 2013

Okay, NOW we can look at wins and losses.  What will be done here is to look at possibilities and probabilities for R23.  Of great importance is the order (and the starting time) of games.  The games below are in chronological order.

The probability (as of Wed 28 Aug) of each team winning is:

Hawks 68%   Swans 32%     Friday 7.50pm
Dockers 92% Saints 8%        Saturday 1.45pm

Cats 96%  Lions 4%              Saturday 2.10pm

Port 52%  Blues 48%            Saturday 4.40pm
Tigers 80%  Dons 20%                   Saturday 7.40pm
Crows 52%  Eagles 48%       Saturday 8.10pm

Suns 90%  Giants 10%                   Sunday 1.10pm

Pies 75%  Roos 25%              Sunday 3.20pm
Dogs 90%  Dees 10%             Sunday 4.40pm

Firstly, the top 4:

A Hawk win will secure top spot.
A Hawk loss and a Geelong win will give the Carts top spot (as their percentage is already higher than that of Hawthorn).  The Cats will know if top spot up for grabs before they take to the field.
Probability of the Hawks finishing top = 69% (well, it is 0.6928, but percentages rounded to the nearest 1% will be used here)

A Geelong loss and a Docker win will see the Dockers finish 2nd.  If they desire to know, the Cats would get the final Freo score early in 4Q.  The probability of Dockers finishing 2nd is 4%

If the Swans win by enough and the Dockers lose, the Swans will finish 3rd.  The combined Swans’ winning margin & Dockers losing margin would need to be ~70 points.  Chances of this occurring is less than 1% (5/100th of a percent)

No team can fall from the top 4 now.

A Tiger win will give them 5th, unless the Pies’ winning margin is at least 60 points more than the winning margin of Richmond.

A Tiger loss and a Collingwood win will give the Magpies 5th.

Probability of the Tigers finishing 5th = 83%
The Pies play after Richmond, so they will know what they need to do to finish 5th.

Port Adelaide is firmly entrenched in 7th and cannot move up nor down.

Now for the fight for 9th (which will become 8th):  If the Blues win, they are in (unless the Lions win by at least 40 goals MORE than the Blues win – virtually impossible).  The Blues will know the Lions’ game result before they begin to play.

If the Blues lose and the Lions win, then the Lions are in, and a game clear.  Probability of the Lions playing finals = 2%

If the Blues and Lions lose; and the Roos win, the Roos are in on percentage (with the Crows and Eagles way too far back on percentage to have any hope – similar to the Lions’ case above).  Probability of the Roos playing finals = 12%.  The Roos are the last team to play, so they will know if they are “alive” prior to game start.

For the Crows to make it, they will need to win and all 3 of the Blues, Roos and Lions to lose.  And then, their winning margin PLUS the Blues’ losing margin needs to be at least 57 points approx.   And, to add irony, they will be cheering for Port to win.  The probability of the Crows playing finals = 9%

For the Eagles to win, they will need to win, then have the Blues, Lions and Roos all lose.  Then their winning margin plus the losing margin of the Blues combined will need to be about 146 points (possible, but extremely unlikely).  The probability of the Eagles playing finals = 0.4% (let’s call it mathematical)

By a process of elimination, the probability of the Blues playing finals is 100 – 2 – 12 – 9 = 77%

Down the bottom end, the Dees will be spooners if they lose and the Giants win and their winning margin PLUS the Dees’ losing margin needs to be at least 85 points.  Probability of the Dees taking the spoon = 4%.  As the Dees play last, they will know whether they have to win, or approximately how much they can lose by, to avoid the spoon.

Now for a bit of a history lesson:  When the end of year ladder was first predicted after R8, the Eagles were in 8th and Port 12th.  Port made ground after BIG upset wins over the Swans and Pies.  Port finally “made” the finals after R19 when they beat the Crows, coming from 20 points down late in 4Q; and the Blues lost to the Dockers.