Final Ladder Estimate



End of year ladder after round 22, 2012

Why this is the best way to do it:  the normal method is to assign a win or a loss to each game (as per most websites).  But, even though each game will result in a win for one team and a loss for the other (barring draws), the reality is that upsets occur.  And there are also 50 / 50 games to pick (such as Blues / Saints in round 23).  Allocating percentage chances for each game yields a more reliable final outcome.  Imagine a team 9th with 5 weeks to go that has to win every game to make it.  If they are a 60% chance in each of the 5 games, the normal method will allocate them 5 wins and finals.  But, in reality, their chances of winning all 5 are 60% to the power of 5 = only a 7.776% chance (or about 1 in 12).  The method used here is the best until 1 – 2 rounds to go.  At that stage, this page will review the various possibilities.


The scenarios below do not cover all the obvious things (such as: if Sydney loses and Adelaide wins, then the Crows go to top 2).

All these are covered in the newspapers and other websites; and most are easily worked out.

The stuff that takes a bit of maths grunt work is explained below.

In the event of a Geelong loss:

If Freo’s winning margin + Geelong’s losing margin > 61, then Freo go ahead of Geelong

If North’s winning margin + Geelong’s losing margin > 88, then Freo go ahead of Geelong

If North’s winning margin exceeds Freo’s winning margin by > 27, then north go ahead of Freo

In the event of a Geelong win and an Eagles’ loss

For Geelong to go ahead of the Eagles, their winning margin plus the Eagles’ losing margin needs to be > 178 (virtually impossible)

Assuming that hot favourites North and Freo both win, then they can be anywhere from 6 – 8.

The Cats’ best chance for a 6th placed finish and a home final is to win.  If they lose, they

The experts currently predict:

Geelong a winners by 5 points

North as winners by 90 points

Freo as winners by 49 points

Fremantle play last of all these teams.

If the Cats lose and the Roos win, they will know a desired approximate winning margin required to get them to 6th and a home final WITH a home ground advantage.

But if the Cats win, then they are relegated to 7th / 8th.

Assuming that they would prefer to play the Eagles in Perth AND that the Eagles have already lost on Friday night to Hawthorn AND the Pies beat Essendon, then a loss would 99% guarantee them 8th spot.

Also, a win by >27 points LESS than North win by, they will also 99% finish 8th.

They may finish 7th and have to play the Roos in Melbourne in week one if the Cats get really hammered by the Swans earlier in the day.

The disadvantage in the Dockers playing in Melbourne for week 1 of finals may be more travel related than team related.  They just beat the Roos in R22 in Melbourne, but a road trip firs tup means that they would have to travel weeks 1, 2, 3 and 4 of the finals to win the flag.  Much easier to progress further by playing at home week 1 and then taking your chances on the road thereafter.

For Geelong, a win is highly advantageous.  It saves them from an anxious wait later in the day.

The Roos not only need to win, but may need to win big to claim a home final (as per permutations above)

In the event of a Richmond win and a Saints’ loss:

For Richmond to go ahead of the Saints, their winning margin plus the Saints’ losing margin needs to be > 192 (virtually impossible).

Richmond will, with a win, go ahead of both Essendon and Carlton if those teams lose.

Of some consolation, perhaps, is that Richmond can finish no higher than 10th; and are likely to finish 10th (if the Saints win) and 11th (if Carlton wins)