Finals Footy Tipping
Footytips.com.au Streak: No cert tipped on GF day. The streak ended at 9.
50/50 tips: correct for the round (The Swans had to win or get close), so now at 16 out of 27 = 58% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping): a “perfect” 2.55 points for the round and improved from 782 to 628 out of 11,863 tipsters. However, it seems that some tipsters may have pulled out before the finals!!
Finals week 4 (Grand Final)
Data to be added midweek due to unavoidable circumstances.
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 1 out of 1 cert(s) correctly. The streak is now at 9 and there it will end for 2012 with no cert tipped for the grand final!!
50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (The Hawks didn’t win by nearly enough, so now at 15 out of 26 = 58% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping): a “perfect” 2.65 points for the round and improved from 950 to 782 out of 11,863 tipsters. However, it seems that some tipsters may have pulled out before the finals!!
Early thoughts for Grand Final: The Hawks looked a little shaky against the Crows. They deserve to be favourites but may have a few injury worries – Ellis, Hale, Young. Hodge will be in if he proves his fitness and Guerra is a test for hammie
The Swans have to wait for MRP on Mumford (who should get off), while Ted Richards has to overcome a minor ankle. McGlynn’s hammie will be tested.
Many doubts abound about leaving players out with fitness doubts vs bringing in players who haven’t played for a week or two (Box Hill Hawks last played on 08 Sep; while the Swans reserves last played on 16 Sep). this is more of a problem for the Hawks than the Swans. Consequently, there will be no “cert” this week and the variance will be EXTREME.
Game Tip By Variance Outsider is
ADEL v FREO ADEL 53 HIGH Dockers no hope
COLL v WCE COLL 23 HIGH Eagles a chance
Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend
Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark
High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark
Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions
Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.
Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip. You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner. EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.
1. HAW V ADEL
The Hawks with NO confidence
Injury concerns for the Hawks makes them ve4ry shaky, but they are still the tip.
On the basis of giving the Swans a big start and just getting over the line in Sydney recently, the Hawks look the goods. But injury concerns to Hodge, Young, Ellis and Hale (compared to only a concern over Richards for the Swans) make it an interesting contest AND an EXTREME VARIANCE game.
Four players (Bolton, O’Keefe, LRT and Goodes) remain from the 2005 premiership team for Sydney. Malceski, Richards and McVeigh played in the losing 2006 grand final. So that’s 7 swans with grand final experience.
For Hawthorn, the following players were in the 2008 premiership team: Hodge, Birchall, Lewis, Franklin, Rioli, Roughead, Sewell, Ellis and Young. That’s a total of 9 Hawks with premiership experience. Those to play in 2008 but not likely to play on Saturday are: Gilham, Guerra (injured), Bateman and Osborne (injured).
So the Hawks have a slight edged in experience. Please refer to http://longggey.com/heart-blame/penny-dredfell/port-gf-loss–2012-gf-preview
for Penny Dredfell’s technical analysis of the game. In summary, there are both good and bad technical leads for the Hawks, so she is “avoiding” this game.
The potential for cold and wet weather (although most of the rain is expected on Saturday morning) merely adds to the uncertainty.
Forecast: Cold, showers, windy, possible hail
As you can see below, it is a bit of a “wimpy” tip (Hawks to win but Swans in the Accumulator). This is not a game to be too sure about.
Maths (in points)
Ability: HAW + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: HAW + 15
Current Form: SYD + 2
Freshness: SYD + 6
Team Changes: Even
Pyschological: SYD + 3
Injuries: SYD + 2
Total: Hawks by 8 points
Accumulator tip: SYD ~ 2.75
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 8 points but the Swans won by 10. Analysis was reasonable, with being perfect. The things that were correct: the EXTREME VARIANCE rating. Not by virtue of a totally bizarre result, but because of the scoring patterns (Swans kicking 8 in a row, then Hawks 5 in a row) and the injury concerns. The obvious ones were Richards and Mumford for the Swans (the Mumford rumours began only AFTER the above preview was written). Richards was beaten at times, but played a solid 4th quarter. Mumford really struggled and was subbed out.
There were several of concern pre-game for the Hawks listed above. Only Hale excelled (122 SC points) and Mumford’s lack of mobility may have helped him. He obviously showed no problems from the heavy knock the previous week. But Hodge (66SC points), Young (58) and Ellis (34 and subbed off) all struggled. Maybe the combined small problems for the Hawks were a bigger problem than the 2 obvious Swan issues.
Next thing correct was the Accumulator tip. As the tip was “two bob each way (ask your grandpa about this saying kiddies)”, this meant that the “main tip” was incorrect.
Still, that is far better than being gung-ho on one team. It was not a match to be too confident, unless wild bias
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Not really keen to do it this week; and next year, I might opt to pick and choose on the 50/50 – maybe having none some weeks and more than one on others. For the sake of the record, it is the Swans to win or get within 10 points on a possibly cold and wet day. (looked shaky at times, but got there in the end)
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Finals week 3 data below:
Finals week 3
Data to be added by 6.00AM Friday, 21 Sep 2012 Eastern time.
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 1 out of 1 cert(s) correctly. The streak is now at 8.
50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (The Crows narrowly failed to win by over 2 goals), so now at 15 out of 25 = 60% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping): a “perfect” 3.38 points for the round and improved from 1,200 to 950 out of 11,863 tipsters.
Early thoughts for Finals week 3: The Hawks look like certs, while the other game is a tough one to pick.
This week there is only a brief preview of the games due to unavoidable circumstances.
The Swans vs Pies game is an EXTREME VARIANCE game. A lot of things favour the Swans: the week’s rest, injury clouds of Didak and Dawes, Grundy coming back etc. But there is this Magpie atonement for the 2011 season which is a plus for Collingwood, as well as their 11 game winning run over the Swans. And the Swans haven’t had a finals week 2 rest since 2006. If they handle it well, that will be a huge help!!
It’s the Swans by 13 points, but with an extreme variance, they are nowhere near certs.
Accumulator tip: Swans ~1.63 (but the Pies at 2.30 is tempting)
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 13 points and they won by 26. Analysis was reasonably good and, although the Swans were not tipped as certs, the tip and the Accumulator were both correct. The decision not to label the Swans as certs is still considered correct, however.
But put the Hawks done as certs. The only plus for Adelaide is that they are now underdogs and the pressure is off after an unimpressive win at home. It is more likely that the win was a minor blip on a downward trend late in the season. Hawks by 55 points and big certs.
Accumulator tip: Hawks ~1.15
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 55 points and they won by 5. Analysis was a long way off here. The reason is uncertain. Were the Hawks weighed down by their huge favouritism? Did Luke Hodge give a milder dose of his virus to some team mates? Or did the Crows play with a freedom which was released by finally winning a finals game under their new coach. Options 1 and 3 seem to be the most likely. The Hawks win was similar to that of the Cats in the 2007 prelim (a comparison which bodes well for the Hawks), but also similar to the Dons in 2001 when they fell over the line against Hawthorn (and then were overrun in the grand final the following week). In any case, a cert should never win so unconvincingly. So, sorry! Lucky to get out of it with the tips in tact.
Best cert: Hawks (squeaked in narrowly)
Best Outsider: Pies (never looked likely)
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Hawks by over 40 points (not even close!!)
Happy tipping! The Pies are worth a go if you need to catch up one 1, but don’t tip the Crows under any circumstances.
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Finals week 2 data below:
Finals week 2
Data to be added by 6.00AM Friday, 14 Sep 2012 Eastern time.
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 1 out of 1 cert(s) correctly. The streak is now at 7.
50/50 tips: correct for the round (Eagles won by over 5 goals), so now at 15 out of 24 = 62% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping): a struggling 1.22 points for the round (one correct selection only!!) and dropped back from 1,126 to 1,200 out of 11,861 tipsters.
Early thoughts for Finals week 2: The losers of week 1 generally do well in week 2 against the winners from positions 5 – 8.
The 2 W. A. teams are travelling, but Freo are doing it for the second week in a row. This means that the Eagles have some chance, but the Dockers will find it extremely difficult. Expect the Crows to come back hard with a 2nd game in a row at home. They may well win big!!
Game Tip By Variance Outsider is
ADEL v FREO ADEL 53 HIGH Dockers no hope
COLL v WCE COLL 23 HIGH Eagles a chance
Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend
Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark
High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark
Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions
Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.
Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip. You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner. EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.
1. ADEL V FREO
The Crows are certs!!!
Fremantle were very good last week and the average fan may give them a huge chance to win. They beat the reigning Premiers in Melbourne in an impressive performance.
Only one problem: they travel twice across the Nullarbor in 6 days. While teams in the east travel in consecutive weeks from time to time (with mixed results), the schedule is arranged so that the Perth teams NEVER have to travel east twice in a row (and that team from the east do not have a trip west when they travel twice in a row – although Brisbane did this under Robert Walls years ago).
The last time Freo did such a thing was in 2010. That year they won in week 1 of the finals, so they were going okay then. It happened in the NAB Cup. The Dockers travelled to Etihad on Sunday 28 Feb 2010 and had a great win over the Roos. Their win somehow sent them back to the same stadium 6 days later to play the Saints. The result was a 70 point thrashing at the hands of St Kilda.
While some may say that this was only a NAB Cup semi-final, the fact remains that it was extremely stressful then; and it will be again this time. And remember that the man whose name is like Pavlova was struggling late in the game, as was another player whose name rhymes with Pest. And also, the Dockers were stopping to a walk last week.
It all points to a golden opportunity for the Crows, if they are good enough to take it. So are they?
“Who can stop the Pav?” they ask! Talia is injured and the coach is going to have multiple players on him. Assuming Pav is 95-100% fit (70 is more like it this week) and the ball comes down 60 times, then the Crows are in trouble. But since neither is likely, and the Crows won’t want to bow out in straight sets, expect the team to be better.
They were the most inexperienced team in the finals (along with the Roos) and appeared to suffer as a result. They have less injuries than anyone at present. Taylor Walker returned from a hip injury and struggled. Expect him to be improved by the run.
Yes, we know that the Crows played some lower teams multiple times (Port, Giants, Suns in fact), but Freo also played Port and Melbourne twice. And the Crows finished with 132% compared to Freo 116%.
Hysteria tells us that the teams 1-4 who lose week one have a great record in week 2. The Crows will be rabid and the Dockers rattled.
The Crows are HUUUUUUUUGE certs.
Forecast: Cool, breezy with showers (which may clear prior to game time)
Maths (in points)
Ability: ADEL + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: ADEL + 24
Current Form: FREO + 9
Freshness: ADEL + 18
Team Changes: ADEL + 1
Pyschological: ADEL + 6
Injuries: ADEL + 1
Total: Crows by 53 points
Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 1.58
Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 53 points and they won by 11. Analysis was a long way off, but the tip was correct. There was no doubt that the Crows would outscore Freo in the second half due to the travel factor. But why did they need to be 5 goals down before coming good? Maybe they are on a general downward form trend and they were only competitive once the Dockers tired. The other possibility is that the fear of failure was enormous and proved to be an inhibitor. In either case, the Dockers did extremely well. Oh, and Shaw going off early didn’t help. The “certs” call was questionable, but looked the winners for the last 1 ½ quarters without being ipressive.
2. COLL V WCE
The Pies to be warmer this week
The Hawks were too good for Collingwood last week. The Pies have struggled this year – probably due to the injuries. They were 11 and 3 at one stage, but were worn down by lack of personnel and losing twice to the Blues (an interesting statistic in the light of the coaching change at Carlton).
But they are not quite gone. They have the advantage of the 8 day break compared to the Eagles 6 days. And they play twice in a row in Melbourne for the first time since rounds 16/17.
Nick Maxwell is a loss (more for his traffic cop work in defence than his possession tally), but the return of Goldsack will help.
The Eagles were impressive in running away with the game last week (with local fans baying for a 100 point victory). But the Roos looked gone 2 weeks earlier and limped into the finals (the effort was too much after finishing 9th in 2010/11).
Nonetheless, the positive is that they hit week 2 of the finals with momentum. But inclusion Rosa for the injured Waters may not be 100% fit.
The Pies (see below week 1 of finals) are the third team in the modern era to finish a year >160% and lose the grand final (in 2011). The other 2 teams both won the flag in the following year – after a struggle.
So don’t totally write off the Pies for the flag.
They should win this week, but they are not certs. Possibly the injuries have worn them down and their best was mid-season. And the Eagles appear to be hitting their straps.
Pies the tip, but not certs
Forecast: Early Shower (probably gone by game time), cool, light winds
Maths (in points)
Ability: COLL + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: COLL + 21
Current Form: WCE + 10
Freshness: COLL + 6
Team Changes: WCE + 1
Pyschological: Even (Pies favoured due to the bad Friday night loss syndrome, but Eagles favoured due to 4Q momentum last week)
Injuries: COLL + 1
Total: Pies by 23 points
Accumulator tip: COLL ~ 1.80
Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 23 points and they won by 13. Analysis was reasonably sound. This game was almost identical to the Crows game in terms of the trend of the game. The experts probably overrated the Eagles chances based on the poor showing by North in F1. The Pies may have been able to kick away bar for the Dawes injury, but maybe they still should have forged away late. The Eagles looked to be out of petrol tickets after their 6 day break (compared to the Pies’ 8 day break). But the Pies were chipping and going sideways to retain possession (and % doesn’t mean anything).
Best cert: Crows (they won; that’s about it)
Best Outsider: Eagles (but don’t like either outsider this week – go for the favourites) (you were warned!!)
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Crows to win by over 2 goals (just failed to get there)
Happy tipping! There is the week to go for the favourites.
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Finals week 1 data below:
Scores after round 23 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 8 and cumulative: 149 winners (including bonus 2 points) and dropped back from 12,303 to 13.168 out of 73,246 tipsters (this is when the 2 bonus point system really hurts!!).
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 5 out of 6 certs correctly. Tigers drew, which is not counted as a certain winner, but nor does it ends one’s streak. The streak is now at 6
50/50 tips: correct for the round (Crows won by over 11 goals), so now at 14 out of 23 = 61% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping): 8.88 points for the round (making the Chinese happy!!) and improved from 1,279 to 1,126 out of 11,857 tipsters.
Early thoughts for Finals week 1: With most comps finished and a few comps having separate finals tipping, here is a chance to start with a clean sheet.
Very keen on the Eagles to win. Hawks, Cats and Crows are the likely tips, but none of them are certs.
Brief preview of the finals:
Roos: highly unlikely to go past the first week. If so, almost certain to be eliminated in week 2
Dockers: are really flying at present and have Fyfe + Sandilands firing again. Some chance to win week 1, but backing up and travelling as well thereafter will kill off any hope they have.
Cats: have hit form in the 2nd half of the season. Reigning premiers who scrape into the finals have a patchy record. The only team to defend their flag were the Crows in 1998 (when the final 8 system was different). If they win the flag, they will be the greatest team of all.
Eagles: should progress to week 2 for a likely clash with the Pies. Would have some chance there, but a second trip east a week later would probably finish them off if they go that far.
Pies: Huge match first up. They are a big chance for the flag if they can cause an upset. A loss in week 1 would probably torpedo their hopes, although they would still be the favourites in week 2.
Penny Dredfell notes that 3 teams in the past half century have finished the home and away season with a percentage over 160.
They are:
Eagles 1991
Cats 2008
Pies 2011
All three lost the GF after being in front early in the match.
The Eagles in 1992 and Cats in 2009 made amends with hard fought wins. So, on a technical basis, the Pies should win the flag in 2012. And they are a chance. But the other two teams didn’t have to go through the coaching change turmoil that existed at Collingwood. Then there are the injuries to consider. But keep these stats in mind…
Swans: recent finals experience gives them a hope in week 1. If they win that, they get a home prelim and a huge chance for the big one. Recent form has been patchy, however.
Crows: have the inside running to a home prelim and then into a grand final. Lack of recent finals experience doesn’t help. They must win in week 1 to be a flag hope, but have no injuries to speak of.
Hawks: have one hand on the cup. They are favoured to win through to the grand final the easy way. The Pies won’t be a pushover in week 1 and there is a chance they may play the Cats in the prelim (a promoter’s dream). Only Guerra is missing from their best 25.
Game Tip By Variance Outsider is
HAW v COLL HAW 7 EXTREME Pies a chance
ADEL v SYD ADEL 21 HIGH Swans small hope
GEEL V FREO GEEL 30 HIGH Freo a small chance
WCE V NMFC WCE 43 HIGH Roos no hope
1. HAW V COLL
The Hawks, but a danger game
The winner of this one will be well on the way to the cup. It is likely that they will play the Crows or Swans on the MCG in a prelim.
This is a danger game for Hawthorn, but they are the tip. The 2011 prelim final loss will be still hurting the Hawks; likewise, the Pies have set their sights on 29 Sep 2012 from a day after last year’s grand final.
The Pies brought back Dawes. They had to do something to stop Maxwell rucking again. The Bombers have had an impact on the finals. They played Travis Cloke back into form. But was it a one game wonder, the absence of Dawes or a genuine return to million dollar form? Toovey has struggled in the last month – failing to score 40 SC points in three weeks and injured for the other week. He needs to find form, although he may not get big numbers anyway, as a tagging type. Their form has been okay without being great. Krakouer might be a slight risk second up. And there is a question mark on Jolly’s durability. They may have eased off last week in preparation for a short week.
The Hawks’ form has been only slightly better. They were flying in rounds 14 – 19 (beating the Pies in that time by 47 points). And they lose “Che” Guerra (as we all knew) and Young (a surprise for many), which detracts from their kicking skills.
The advantage is that they get a 7 day break compared to a 6 day break for the Pies (who had a recent trip to Perth also). Cyril was the sub last week after injury and may be slightly off his best still.
The uncertainty about both teams, the short breaks, the weather and the 2011 finals series pain makes this game an EXTREME variance game.
The Hawks are the tip, they are too highly fancied by the experts and anything could happen.
Forecast: Cold, windy with showers
Maths (in points)
Ability: HAW + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: Even
Current Form: HAW + 5
Freshness: HAW + 9
Team Changes: COLL + 3
Pyschological: COLL + 5
Injuries: COLL + 3
Total: Hawks by 9 points
Accumulator tip: COLL ~ 3.60
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 9 points and they won by 38. Analysis was just fair, with the Pies not really in the hunt. Maybe the downside risk to Collingwood was greater than the upside. The players “at risk” for the Pies actually did well (Cloke, Dawes, Krakouer). Those to really struggled were Fasolo, Sinclair and Tarrant. Also, the Hawks bottom end players did better than those for the Pies.
The Accumulator tip was wrong but the EXTREME variance call was probably correct.
2. ADEL V SYD
The Crows look the goods
The only way the Swans can win this one is via their extra finals experience. Everything else points to Adelaide: home state advantage, better form (albeit against lowly opposition), the Swans are on the road for the second week in a row, Vince + Walker in, a full list to pick from and Swan Grundy is suspended.
Vince and Walker “trained strongly”, according to Mark Bickley. This is code for “yes, they are definitely in”.
Meanwhile, Sydney’s Reid and Smith “pulled up well from Thursday training”. Not quite as convincing, although it’s just a guess.
Bolton will be better for the run + LRT has struggled recently with injury and form. Similarly, Reid put in a shocker last week after a recent ankle injury.
The Swans do have one positive – they are still marginally the higher rated team. And they can grind teams down. In 5 out of the last 10 matches between these two, the winner failed to get to 80 points (one being very wet, as I recall).
If the Crows can overcome their lack of finals experience and play to their potential, they could win BIG over a Swans team that has struggled lately.
Forecast: Clearing shower, cool, breezy
Maths (in points)
Ability: SYD + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: ADEL + 15
Current Form: ADEL + 6
Freshness: ADEL + 6
Team Changes: ADEL + 6
Pyschological: SYD + 8
Injuries: ADEL + 2
Total: Crows by 21 points
Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 1.66
Post Match Review: Crows were tipped by 21 points but the Swans won by 29. Analysis was, again, just average. Maybe the finals experience aspect was underrated. Also, coach Sanderson admitted to not being a good performed in finals. Maybe some of that transferred to his team on Saturday.
From the AFL website: “The Crows appeared overawed in the first half with nine players making their AFL finals debut, in stark contrast to the Swans, whose only player in the same boat was 25-year-old Mitch Morton.”
And maybe playing Brisbane (for a loss), then wins over Melbourne and the Gold Coast was not the ideal lead-in to the finals. Maybe the variance should have been called extreme, but relieved that theCrows were not called certs.
3. GEEL V FREO
The Cats, but Freo playing well
The two teams haven’t played since the round one thriller in the west when Scarlett and Ballantyne were both suspended. Before that, it was R2 in 2011 (again in Perth) where the Cats snuck in. The last time they played in Melbourne was week 2 of the 2020 finals series and the Cats romped in by 69 points.
This one should be a lot closer. Freo are coming good at the right time. A loss last week or a narrow win would have given them a home final (against the Eagles). Now they have to travel for every week they survive.
News from the final training session from Freo: Captain Matthew Pavlich trained fully, as did Hayden Ballantyne, Tendai Mzungu, David Mundy and Lee Spurr, who all missed Tuesday’s session.
That suggests that the team will line up as selected. Having said that, Pav spent a lot of time on the bench in 4Q last week when equal with Hawkins in the race for the Coleman medal. Had he been 100%, one would have expected him to be out there (eventually, Riewoldt won it on Sunday)
The good form of Fyfe and Sandilands has helped recently and this gives them a chance. The loss of Johnson for Geelong is probably a bigger loss than that of McPharlin for the Dockers, but he would have been handy against Geelong’s tall forward line.
Geelong failed to select Varcoe in the AFL and VFL. This puts his potential finals tilt in jeopardy – should Geelong progress.
Vardy is just back from injury and might be a risk second up. Nonetheless, he appears to be a huge talent. Taylor Hunt should do better after last week’s average effort coming off an injury.
And the Cats have been on a hot streak – losing only to the Eagles in Perth (narrowly, after Hawkins concussed himself early) in their past 7 matches against mainly good teams. And their lead in to the finals was perfect, with a soft, then a tougher game at Geelong. Didn’t even have to travel to Melbourne in R22+23!
The Cats home state advantage and experience will see them tipped. They will not be tipped as certs due to the form spike of Freo and the slight doubt about reigning premiers not doing well from spots 5 – 8 in the finals. The lead on this is not strong (with mixed results), but it is enough to cast some doubt on Geelong.
The Dockers will ant to keep Geelong under close check. If the Cats get off the leash, it could blow out. But then the old Cats may get a rest late in the game.
Forecast: Cold, windy with showers
Maths (in points)
Ability: GEEL + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: GEEL + 24
Current Form: FREO + 4
Freshness: GEEL + 6
Team Changes: FREO + 1
Pyschological: FREO + 8
Injuries: GEEL + 1
Total: Cats by 30 points
Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.30
Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 30 points but the Dockers won by 16. Analysis was a way off with both the tip and Accumulator incorrect. There was one small positive. Most experts had the Cats over the line, but the “reigning premier sneaking into the finals” theme (see above) created enough doubt to not name them as certs. The Cats vs Swans match R23 looks to have provided a false lead, with the Cats underperforming expectations by 7 goals and the Swans outperforming expectations by 6 goals.
The Dockers probably needed to get off to a flier to win, and they were brilliant early.
4. WCE V NMFC
Roos out of “bounce”
The Kangas team looks better this week with Wells, Grima and, possibly, Wright coming back in. Hansen is a concern, however, with 2 head knocks in last month. He scarcely played last week.
The Eagles have gradually come good late in the year as the Roos have dropped off. While the Eagles’ form improvement is mainly due to personnel, North has slackened off after clinching a definite finals’ berth, according to Brad Scott.
That is probably true, but the big question is: can they regain the form of several weeks prior?
The guess here is that they cannot. Making the finals in itself was such a big issue (after finishing 9th in each of Scott’s first 2 years as coach), that the letdown may continue into the finals.
Having to go to Perth won’t help!! Actually, the Roos may be able to play slightly better than the shocker against Freo (when Goldstein was battling a stomach bug and had a Darren Crocker of a day) and the Giants (when they were patchy at best).
But it won’t be nearly enough to counter all the negatives. One of these is 27 degrees on Sunday. The Roos are travelling two weeks in a row; fortunately with an 8 day break.
Eagles easily. If the sun gets to the Roos, the margin could blow out late.
Forecast: Sunny, very warm, light breeze
Maths (in points)
Ability: WCE + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: WCE + 24
Current Form: WCE + 12
Freshness: WCE + 6
Team Changes: NMFC + 7
Pyschological: NMFC + 1
Injuries: NMFC + 3
Total: Roos by 43 points and certs
Accumulator tip: WCE ~ 1.22
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 43 points and they won by 96. Analysis was reasonably good here, given that both tips were correct and that the experts had the Eagles winning by 4 – 5 goals. In this match, the favourite got off to an absolute flier and never looked back.
The Roos’ “letdown” factor mentioned above was more severe than anticipated. Otherwise, everything was fine and the Eagles were truly the best cert of the round.
Best cert: Eagles (did it easily)
Best Outsider: Pies (struggled), but two other outsiders won.
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): The Eagles to win by over 5 goals (did it easily)
Happy tipping! There is the potential for upsets, but the safe play is to go for the favourites this week (playing safe only got you 2 winners this time!