Fundamental vs Technical
Fundamental versus Technical in 2013
By Penny Dredfell
Okay, I admit that I am a FTA – Footy Technical Analyst. So I am fundamentally anti-fundamentalism. But one does need some degree of perspective. Even the fundamentalists in share trading sometimes look at the fundamentals to decide between 2 shares in which to invest – if the technical leads are equal.
As a guide, in 2012 these were the technical leads in the first few rounds:
R1: 0
R2: 0
R3: 1
R4: 0
R5: 4
R6: 1
R7: 5
R8: 7
By technical leads, I mean indications APART FROM form, team ability, home ground advantage etc that tend to suggest a team will underperform or outperform expectations on the day.
Over the entire 2012 season, there were 55 technical leads that turned out to be positive and 24 that were negative.
A positive lead is one that gets you closer to the correct final margin than the general population. It may not translate into a winning tip, however. Conversely, a negative lead takes you further away from the result than the average tipster.
To use the R3 technical lead as an example, the Lions had a good week in R1, 2012 (thrashing the Dees, despite being underdogs), the an absolute shocker in R2 (a 15 goal + loss to the Blues at home – albeit off a 5 day break compared to the Blues’ 7 days) and then had to go to Perth to play Freo in R3.
This follows the Good, Shocker, 3rd week technical data. Lowly teams (as Brisbane were then rated) tend to bounce back well from a big up then a BIG down when it happens early in the season.
In R3, the Dockers were 44 point favourites and only won by 29 points. This doesn’t help in terms of tipping winners in this instance, but it does indicate that the Lions were somewhat underrated in this match.
During the year, other trends will be explained as part of the weekly previews. Now back to the figures above: there is 1 technical lead in weeks 1 – 4 and 17 leads in weeks 5 – 8. So you need to know your fundamentals – at least in the early season. Otherwise you are likely to get behind in the tipping. If you haven’t done your fundamental homework yet (27 March) it is really too late. You need to find the opinion of someone you trust and go with them until things settle down after a few rounds. The weekly previews under the 2013 Season area of this website would be a good place to start.
However, by somewhere in the R5 – 8 range, most people have adjusted to which teams have improved or regressed. That is when the technical leads come in handy and the fundamentals don’t play such a big part.
The most useful lead in the early rounds 2012 was R7 when the Cats were slight favourites to beat the Crows in Adelaide. The technical lead suggested that the Cats were about to underperform. That they did, and the Crows won by 50 points. It’s not always as rosy as that, but I will keep you informed on technical leads throughout the season.
PS: There are none really for R1 that stand out.