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Geel+GCS 2012

(data to be added in March 2012)

 

End of year Analysis in purple below


BIG apologies!!

This website is a one person operation. A crisis took me away from the job and much of the last minute pre-season work was not done. The data will be updated when it can be done. The weekly analysis will continue, at least in its basic detail.

 

 

 

Legend

Blue = Bad news (may go worse than last year; may have injury trouble or do worse than most people think)

Pink = Positive news (may exceed expectations or has overcome previous injuries)

Black = neither bad nor positive at this stage, but worthy of a comment

G = Gold (suggestion for Supercoach and > $400K)

S = Silver (suggestion for Supercoach and $200K to $400K)

B = Bronze (suggestion for Supercoach and < $200K)

 

Updates to appear sometime after each NAB Cup match (last update 26 March 2012 and updates / additions have a *)

 

 

 

 

Geelong 14 wins and 7th.

After round 7 updated analysis: 14 wins and 6th

Initial tip was great – many had the Cats in the top 4. They have struggled a bit early on this year (compared to recent seasons) and have been written off as a flag hope. They will need to be 1 – 4 to have a realistic flag chance; and that appears to be a big task. Winning from 5 -8 will be very difficult (for any team). Where they finish will be determined largely by rounds 16 – 21 when they play Pies, Dons, Crows (home), Hawks, Eagles (away) and Saints

At end of season: 15 wins and 6th.  This was an inspired prediction. Most experts had the Cat sin the top 4 on the back of 3 flags in 5 years.  But the logic used (the fact that everything fell into place in 2011 and that 2012 would prove more difficult) held true.


 

 

Geelong They are having locked training sessions and news is hard to come by. A “story” will be pieced together from NAB matches  (Note: this update will cease after each team has played R1; thereafter, the injury lists are freely available at http://www.afl.com.au/)

Bartel, Jimmy G Scored best DT points in the league for NAB R2

Bews, Jed Son of Andrew and not ready for big time yet. Subbed off at half time NAB R2

Brown, Mitch W. S (Note that the Eagles also have a Mitch Brown) Injury prone but doing well in pre-season and may move to defence. This has been his best pre-season and played every NAB Cup game. Played well NAB R2 but copped a heavy knock

Byrnes, Shannon S Good pre-season after struggling in pre-season 2011. The Varcoe injury means he is likely to get a game early in the season. Played only a part of NAB R2. Resonable in NAB R3 & 4

Chapman, Paul G Had post-season knee and groin operation. Had an interrupted 2011 pre-season and this pre-season has been better. Rusty when played NAB R3 and named for NAB R4

* Christensen, Allen Green vest specialist for much of 2011, but may be ready for more action in 2012. Had a wrist injury pre-season and rusty when played first game in NAB R3 and named for NAB R4, but didn’t play. Is listed as a test with a hip injury for R1 on the AFL website. May be underdone if he plays

Corey, Joel Named for first hit-out in NAB R3

Cowan, Josh Subbed off at half time NAB R2

* Enright, Corey Named NAB R3 but did not play and not named in NAB R4. Has a sore achilles and is in doubt (and underdone) for R1

Guthrie, Cameron B May be used as a tagger. Did well NAB R2 & 4. Will be pressing for a game R1

Hamling, Joel Subbed on at half time NAB R2

* Hawkins, Tom Played okay NAB R2 & R3. Did okay NAB R4

* Hogan, Simon May be used as a tagger. Looks to have taken the next step with good NAB R1 & 2 numbers. Poor numbers NAB R3 and not selected NAB R4. Looks like playing VFL early on

* Horlin-Smith, George Good pre-season, but coach probably doesn’t have him in the best 22. Played only part of NAB R3 and just average NAB R4. Likely to start in the VFL

* Hunt, Josh Suspended for R2&3 of NAB Cup. Back for NAB R4 where he injured a calf and in doubt for R1

* Hunt, Taylor S Likely to move to midfield for run-with role. Played very well NAB R2 before being subbed off at half time. Almost a certain starter R1

* Johnson, Steve Played first game in NAB R3 and okay NAB R4

* Kelly, James Played first game in NAB R3 and starred NAB R4

Kersten, Shane Subbed on at half time NAB R2

* Mackie, Andrew G Dislocated a finger NAB R2 and subbed out at half time. Not selected NAB R3 but did well NAB R4

Menzel, Daniel Did his ACL late in 2011 and will be back mid season 2012 or later

Motlop, Steven May be used as a running defender. Has played the entire NAB Cup, so will be in the mix for R1

Murdoch, Jordan Subbed on at half time NAB R2

* Podsiadly, James Shoulder reco after grand final. Resumed contact work early Feb. Played okay in NAB R3 & 4, but may be underdone for early season

Schroder, Jordan Good pre-season. Fair numbers in NAB Cup. Coach expects him to play some senior footy in 2012, but unlikely to be a regular. Played NAB R1, 2 & 3 but omitted NAB R4

* Selwood, Joel Played very well NAB R2, then rested NAB R3 and okay NAB R4

Simpson, Dawson Back surgery Jan 2012 and will miss some weeks of the regular season

* Smedts, Billie Good pre-season after missing all of 2011 with injury. Balmey rates him and watch in NAB Cup. Likely to be tried in defence, but will probably be better in 2013 due to a lack of matches in 2012. duck eggs for NAB R2 but spent most of the time on the bench. Selected for NAB R2, then left at home? Did okay NAB R3 but just average NAB R4. May not be a regular in 2012

* Stephenson, Orren Good pre-season and a chance to be no. 1 ruckman, especially with Vardy and Simpson having interrupted pre-seasons. Wore green vest Nab R1B. Played half a game NAB R3. Has not starred but likely to be playing because Simpson and Vardy are missing for many more weeks. Did okay NAB R4

* Stokes, Mathew Wore green vest Nab R1A. Subbed off at half time NAB R2. Missed NAB R3 and okay NAB R4

Varcoe, Travis Stress fracture and hopes to be back in May

* Vardy, Nathan Significant hip surgery in Aug 2011. Due to begin contact late Feb, but will miss at least the first half of the regular season

West, Trent Looks like being number one ruck in 2012. Has played all NAB Cup matches without starring

* Wojcinski, David Heel problem and expected to be back approx round 4 (via VFL, probably)

Rookies

Bathie, Ryan Played only a part of NAB R2. Named NAB R3 but did not play

Blicavs, Mark Trying to qualify as a steeplechaser for the 2012 Olympics. Unlikely to play senior footy in 2012

Burbury, George May be used as a tagger Wore green vest Nab R1A+R1B

Eardley, Cameron Wore green vest NAB R2

Simpkin, Jonathan B&F for Geelong VFL side in 2011. Wore green vest NAB R2 & R3

Stringer, Jesse Best performed rookie who has played the entire NAB Cup. Must be a chance for promotion

 

 

 

 

Gold Coast Suns 5 wins and 17th.

After round 7 updated analysis: 2 wins and 17th

Initial tip was too optimistic. They were always going to start slowly with a few injuries, but subsequent injuries to Ablett, Bock, Harbrow and Swallow were hard to swallow for their fans. The critical weeks for them are at home to Port in round 9 and then rounds 17 – 20 when they play the Lions, Dees and Giants

At end of season: 3 wins and 17th.  Analysis was fair.  The Suns had a shocker of a run with injuries (2nd worst in the league) and many of these occurred during the course of the year (unlike the Dees who were beaten before a ball was bounced).  So the estimated number of wins was not achieved, but the outcome was understandable.

 

 

Gold Coast News from GCS is scant   (Note: this update will cease after each team has played R1; thereafter, the injury lists are freely available at http://www.afl.com.au/)

Ablett, Gary Jnr G Great pre-season. Was restricted pre-season in 2011 and expect improvement. Did well NAB R2

* Allen, Jackson Wore green vest Nab R1B & R2. Not seen since
* Bock, Nathan Will miss weeks 1 & 2 of the regular season due to suspension.

Played forward and kicked 4 in intraclub 18 Feb and doing well NAB Cup. Missed NAB R4.

Brennan, Jared Doing very well NAB Cup

Brown, Campbell Broke his pelvis round 20, 2011. Played NAB Cup R1B, then R2, 3 & 4

* Caddy, Josh S Minor hip injury- went to Arizona. Resumed NAB R3 with half a game and excelled. Followed up with a goof NAB R4 result

Day, Sam Hip – went to Arizona. Allegedly available but not selected NAB R4. Likely to be underdone regular season

Dixon, Charlie May move to defence; had a minor hip flexor injury in pre-season, but has matured over that time. Played NAB R1 and was supposed to play NAB R2 but injured an ankle at training. Played part of NAB R3 and not selected for NAB R4

Flanagan, Piers Training well in pre-season and had shocking injuries in 2011. Selected for firs game NAB R3 but only played a small part and not selected for NAB R4

* Gorringe, Daniel B May move to defence. Wore green vest NAB R1A & R2. Did okay NAB R4

* Hall, Aaron B Coach like his game NAB R1 and is a semi-mature aged recruit at 21yo. Did very well NAB R1. Named for NAB R2 but did hammie prior to the game. Missed NAB R3 as well. Played okay NAB R4

* Harbrow, Jarrod Played only a part of NAB R3. Followed up with good effort NAB R4

* Hickey, Tom Missed NAB R1 & R2. Played only a part of NAB R3, but did well and yielded low numbers NAB R4

Hine, Taylor Ankle injury and aiming to be ready for R1 regular season

Hunt, Karmichael Good pre-season. Coach talked of moving him into the midfield in 2012. Red vested in NAB R2. Played only a part of NAB R3, but did very well

Hutchins, Jack Knee injury in pre-season and not seen at all in NAB Cup

* Iles, Sam Played only a part of NAB R3 and not seen in NAB R4

Jolly, Hayden Wore green vest Nab R1A & R2
* Lynch, Thomas Missed NAB R1 with an ankle injury and NAB R3 with a foot. Did okay NAB R4
Magin, Alik Upgraded 2011 rookies. Played only a part of NAB R3 and not selected for NAB R4

Matera, Brandon Ongoing groin issues; doubtful to be ready R1

May, Steven Played only part game NAB R2 and missed NAB R3 and R4 with a shoulder injury

McKenzie, Trent Minor knee – went to Arizona; will miss a few rounds of the regular season

Nicholls, Tom Club said on 12 March “match conditioning – 4 to 6 weeks (away from being ready to play)”

Patrick, Liam Played only part game NAB R2

* Prestia, Dion S Training well in pre-season. Coach gave him a rap on the radio 02 March. Did quite well in NAB Cup games, especially NAB R4

* Rischitelli, Michael Played only a part of NAB R3 and missed NAB R4. Nothing known but not the ideal lead-in to the season

* Russell, Luke Training well in pre-season. Coach gave him a rap on the radio 02 March. Played Nab R2, 3 & 4 without starring

* Sexton, Alex Played only part game NAB R2 & R3. Just average NAB R4, so likely to be in the mix for R1, but may not be a regular

Smith, Zac Played only part game NAB R2, then did well NAB R3

Stanley, Danny Back problems and allegedly available NAB R4 but not selected. May be underdone regular season

Swallow, David G Great pre-season. Was the Suns’ best in NAB R3

Tape, Sebastian Played only part game NAB R2

Taylor, Jeremy Played only part game NAB R2

* Thompson, Rory Adductor injury and aiming to be ready for R2 regular season

Toy, Josh Injured – went to Arizona. Available for regular season but underdone

Warnock, Matthew Good pre-season and looks a cert for a key defensive role – possibly filling Bock’s spot to allow Bock to move forward at times. Played all NAB Cup games without recording good numbers

* Weller, Maverick Played only a part of NAB R3, but did well and again okay NAB R4

Rookies

Coad, Michael Hammie; available for selection NAB R4 but not selected

Horsley, Kyal Mature aged player. Won Subiaco’s B&F in 2011 and 2nd in Sandover Medal. Still a rookie and not seen at all in the NAB Cup