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GWS+Haw 2012

(data to be added in March 2012)


 

 

End of year Analysis in purple below

 

 

Legend

Blue = Bad news (may go worse than last year; may have injury trouble or do worse than most people think)

Pink = Positive news (may exceed expectations or has overcome previous injuries)

 

 

Black = neither bad nor positive at this stage, but worthy of a comment

Updates to appear sometime after each NAB Cup match  (last update 19 March 2012 {GWS} & 27 March {Hawthorn} and updates / additions have a *)

 

 

Greater Western Sydney 0 wins and spoon (but a win is possible).

After round 7 updated analysis: 2 wins and 18th Initial tip was slightly pessimistic (without saying they had NO HOPE of winning a match). AFL HQ was delighted that they notched a win and more wins are now possible, without being guaranteed. Their best chance is in rounds 19 – 21 with games against Port (home), Suns (away) and Dees (home)

End of season: 2 wins and 18th.  Analysis was fair.  A great effort to win 2 games, even if they did get really hammered in some other matches. Greene and Giles were tremendous for the Giants in 2012.

 

 

 

Greater Western Sydney (first year in the comp)  (Note: this update will cease after each team has played R1; thereafter, the injury lists are freely available at http://www.afl.com.au/)

Brief Summary: Wooden spoon looks pretty safe, but not totally convinced that they will be winless in 2012

More Detail: Two assessment methods will be used. Firstly, their form in the pre-season has been patchy. At least they had a win against the Suns in week 3. They were missing Stephen Coniglio, Phil Davis and Tom Scully from their best possible line-up while Dean Brogan, Jonathon Patton, Setanta O’hAilpin, Luke Power, Dylan Shiel and Adam Treloar were missing through injury.

The Suns rested Gary Ablett and Josh Fraser, while Sam Day, Aaron Hall, Brandon Matera and Danny Stanley were unavailable through injury.

They were competitive in NAB R1 vs Dogs and Pies in Sydney, but were blown away by the Hawks and Tigers in the other two games.

The NAB Cup form tells us: competitive at times and could scrounge a win, perhaps. Their best chances of winning are rounds 7, 19 and 21, but they are likely to be too tired late in the season. So it leaves the home game vs Gold Coast in round 7 as their best chance to break the duck.

Method 2: comparing GWS 2012 to Gold Coast 2011.

Gold Coast’s experienced recruits were: Ablett, Bock, Brennan, Brown, Fraser, Harbrow, (Lord of) Iles, Rischitelli and Stanley.

GWS boast Brogan, Chad Cornes, Davis, (Old) MacDonald, O’hAilpin, Palmer, Power, Reid, Scully and Ward.

Gold Coast scored slightly better in that regard – partially because some of the Giants recruits are on their last legs. Add to this the fact that the Giants begin the year with significant injuries and it adds up to GWS finishing the year with a worse percentage than the Suns in 2011 (56.3) and struggling to win a game.

We analysts like to do these comparisons, but the real issue is how each team will be tracking in years 3, 4, 5 and 6 of their AFL lives.

Definitely missing round 1 (from best 22): Jonathon Patton

May miss round 1 or be underdone (from best 22): Dean Brogan, Setanta O’hAilpin, Luke Power, Tom Scully, Dylan Shiel, Adam Treloar; while Israel Folau is on report at present

Look for improvement from: Just watch the myriad of new players: Adam Kennedy, Devon Smith, Dylan Shiel (when fit), Steve Clifton and rookie Jonathon Giles,

Don’t expect too much from: #1 draft pick Jonathon Patton will miss a huge chunk of the season

Likely to get a game R1: For the Giants, you will have the selected team prior to the deadline for the week 1 tips

Keys for the club: Trying to keep the old guys going long enough to develop the youngsters

Important Rounds: Rounds 7 (Gold Coast), 19 (Port) and 21 (Melbourne) are all at home and these are their best chances for a win.

GWS Giants (Note: this update will cease after each team has played R1; thereafter, the injury lists are freely available at http://www.afl.com.au/)

Note also that several highly fancied DT&SC fancies (Clifton, Darley and others in Sheedy’s likely team named on 10 Feb 2012) did not make the initial round 1 team. And the following players will need to be slotted in for rounds 2ff: Brogan, O’hAilpin, “General” Patton (much later), Power, Scully and probably Treloar

Adams, Taylor Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Not seen at NAB Cup, so may be injured

Aylett, Kurt Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did his knee in August 2011 and will miss the first month or two of the season

Brogan, Dean Beat Giles in the ruck intraclub 10 Feb. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Has not played in the NAB Cup due to a “niggling leg injury”

Bruce, Josh Good size to play immediately, but disposal can let him down. Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb, but did okay NAB R2 + NAB R4. Didn’t play R3

Bugg, Tomas In Sheedy’s “likely round 1” team and did okay in NAB Cup R1B after sitting out the first game of the night. Again okay for NAB R3 & 4

Buntine, Matthew Draft pick 5, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb and not seen at all in NAB Cup; may be injured

Cameron, Jeremy Tall half-forward. Really good reports on him, one of the favourites for the Rising Star. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Corked hip 3Q in NAB R2 but played part of NAB R3 and just average in NAB R4

Clifton, Steve Racked up possessions in 2011. Mature aged recruit. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only part of NAB R2, but excelled NAB R3 before an ordinary effort in NAB R4. But only played half a game, so he is forgiven

Coniglio, Stephen In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did well NAB R2 then missed NAB R3. Okay in NAB R4. Has played 5 WAFL games in 2012/11

Cornes, Chad Did well in intraclub match 10 Feb. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played NAB R1A and then not seen until NAB R3 when he excelled. Played NAB R4 and didn’t get much of the ball

Darley, Sam Racked up high possessions in 2011, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did okay in NAB Cup R1A and looks to be on the fringe. Did okay NAB R2. Missed NAB R3, and played half of NAB R4

Davis, Phil In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2. Missed NAB R3 and just average NAB R4

Downie, Tom Sheeds said “looked okay” in 10 Feb intraclub; Wore green vest Nab Cup R1B. Played NAB R2 but mainly on the bench. Not named for NAB R4

Edwards, Shaun Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2 & R3. Not named for NAB R4

Folau, Israel Sheeds said he’ll play forward but struggled in intraclub match 10 Feb and in NAB Cup R1. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Had a major op prior to 2011 season and needs time to learn. Should do better in 2013. Came off NAB R2 with hamstring soreness but did well in NAB R3. Cleared of rough play charge in NAB R4

Golds, Tim Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2 and not seen in NAB R3 or 4

Greene, Toby Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2, then excelled in NAB R3 and okay in NAB R4. a good ball-winner in junior ranks

Hampton, Curtly Racked up possessions in 2011. Impressed Sheedy early in 10 Feb intraclub. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played NAB R1A, but not R1B and R2. Did okay NAB R3 and did get much of it in NAB R4

Haynes, Nick Good pre-season, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2 and unlikely to be in best 22

Hombsch, Jack Developing key defender. Missed most of 2010 through injury; not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb and just average in NAB Cup R1A. Not seen for the rest of the NAB Cup, but played NAB R4 in the reserves as “first game back from injury” according to a fan, and did well

Hoskin-Elliott, William Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb and played only a part of NAB R3. However, he did well NAB R2 & R4

Kennedy, Adam In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did well NAB R3 when played only a part of the game then got plenty of the ball in NAB R4 but his decision-making was not always good

McDonald, James Had a good pre-season, but played for Old Xavs last year and is old; nonehtheless, he is in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb and knows how to get the ball. Played only a part of NAB R2 & R3. Did well for NAB R4. He may get rested at times in 2012

Miles, Anthony Racked up possessions in 2011. Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2. Starred in NAB R3, but not named for NAB R4

Mohr, Tim Won the B&F with Casey last year . In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2. Did okay NAB R3 and did okay NAB R4

O’hAilpin, Setanta Did well in intraclub match 10 Feb. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb, but missed all thr NAB Cup after copping “a knock to his leg” just prior to NAB R1

Palmer, Rhys In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Outstanding in NAB R3 and named for NAB R4

Patton, Jonathon Went to Sweden due to knee issues in Jan and club expects him to debut in May

Phillips, Andrew Wore green vest Nab Cup R1A. Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb and just average in NAB Cup R1

Power, Luke In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did a hammie 01 March and will miss the rest of the Nab Cup and possible R1 as well

Reid, Sam (recruited from the Dogs and not the same as the Swans’ Sam Ried) Good pre-season; watch in NAB Cup. Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb and appears to be on the fringe. Played okay NAB R3 and okay in NAB R4

Scully, Tom Getting a superstar’s pay, but still a work in progress. Good pre-season. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played NAB R1A, R2 and named for NAB R4

Shiel, Dylan Racked up possessions in 2011 and likely to be in best 22; but had his appendix out in Feb and is reporting to have an ankle injury and be in a moon boot.Played 75% of game time in the 2s NAB R4 and performed okay. Was a star in Tac Cup and NEAFL and will get plenty of it when fully fit

Smith, Devon Really exciting young forward pocket. Impressed Sheeds in intraclub 10 Feb. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. GWs best NAB R2. Missed NAB R3 then did well NAB R4

Sumner, Liam Good pre-season, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2. Excelled in NAB R3 but not named for NAB R4

Tomlinson, Adam Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb, but did okay in NAB Cup R1B. Played only a part of NAB R2 & R3. Played well NAB R4

Townsend, Jacob Sheeds said “showed courage in 10 feb intraclub”. Played on Dane Swan in NAB Cup R1B, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Has been reasonable in NAB Cup and named for NAB R4

Treloar, Adam In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Missed intraclub the same day with unknown injury and was set to return NAB Cup R3, but missed R3 & 4 with a hammie and will miss at least R1 regular season

Tyson, Dom Impressed Sheeds in intraclub 10 Feb; Wore green vest Nab Cup R1A and did well in NAB R1B, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did okay when played only a part of NAB R3 and did okay NAB R4

Ugle, Gerald Wore green vest Nab Cup R1B, but not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played NAB R2 but mainly on the bench

Ward, Callan Starred (as expected) in intraclub match 10 Feb. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played NAB R1A, then starred NAB R3 and R4

Wilson, Nathan In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Played only a part of NAB R2. Missed NAB R3 but named for NAB R4 but not certain that he played. No cert to get a regular game

Rookies

Cooyou, Rhys Not in Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb, but impressed Sheeds in Nab Cup R1B. However, not seen for the rest of the NAB Cup

Giles, Jonathan Ruck and beaten by Brogan in intraclub 10 Feb’ but impressed in NAB Cup R1. At 25 and with plenty of size, he is a big chance to play R1. On rookie list. In Sheedy’s “likely round 1 team” announced on 10 Feb. Did okay NAB R1 &R2. Poor figures in NAB R3, but only played a part of the game. Starred in NAB R4 when Brogan was absent and Brogan may miss quite a few games in 2012

 

 

Hawthorn 17 wins and 1st.

After round 7 updated analysis: 16 wins and 5th
Initial tip was a bit too high. They have lost Osborne for the year and they need all of Hodge, Bailey and Gilham to be right at year’s end. They are still a big chance for 5th, but have less margin for error now at 4 and 3. The draw gets easier and the worst is behind them. But they need to negotiate rounds 17 – 19 when they meet the Pies, Dons and Cats

End of season: 17 wins and 1st (before the finals).  Analysis was excellent – even though it took them all year to reach the number one spot.  They could’ve almost nearly won the flag too, but a few things went against them. Favourites for the 2013 flag already!

 

 

Hawthorn (Note: this update will cease after each team has played R1; thereafter, the injury lists are freely available at http://www.afl.com.au/)

Bailey, Max Did well intraclub in Tassie Feb and has done okay in NAB Cup. Suffered a wrist injury mid March and expected to miss at least the first 7 weeks of the season

Bateman, Chance Played only a part of NAB R3, but did well in that time and named for NAB R4

* Boumann, Jarrad Mature aged recruit. Did well NAB Cup R2 and coach said on 09 March: in contention for R1. He played NAB R3&4 without starring

* Breust, Luke Good pre-season. Played only part of NAB R2 and R3 and okay NAB R4

* Bruce, Cameron Turns 33 this year. Played only part of NAB R2 but did extremely well. Did okay again NAB R3 but not named for NAB R4. Probably not an automatic start in 2012

* Burgoyne, Shaun G A dual position player for fantasy footy. Did very well NAB R2. Missed NAB R3 and did well NAB R4

Ellis, Xavier Calf problems Jan 2012; hurt ankle in intraclub Tassie Feb. Played NAB R2 (possibly not a full game) and playing NAB R3 for Box Hill to get 70% game time. Not named for NAB R4, which hints that he is outside the best 22

* Franklin, Lance G Good preseason and improved endurance; BOG intraclub in Tassie Feb (which few saw) and starred in NAB Cup R1 (which the whole world saw, so he will be in many DT&SC teams)! Spelled NAB R2 and did well NAB R3. Starred in NAB R4

* Gibson, Josh Ran laps mid Jan; did his hammie 03 Feb at training, but played NAB R1A&B. Named for Nab R2 but didn’t get on the ground due to back stiffness. Not in NAB R3 squad but did okay in NAB R4

* Gilham, Stephen Bad knee injury in 2011 and club has him listed as “indefinite”

Grimley, Sam Played only part of NAB R2. May be some chance to play now that Bailey will miss many weeks. But he missed NAB R3 & R4, while rookie Broc McCauley is playing NAB R4

* Guerra, Brent Came off with a calf injury NAB R2 and missed NAB R3. Did okay in NAB R4

* Gunston, Jack Struggling for form pre-season; long term prospect who may noy play R1; however, did okay in NAB R1. Injured a calf in NAB R2. Played only a part of NAB R3. Coach said on 09 March that he is in contention for R1 and did well in NAB R4. Looks likely to play games in 2012. His cause is aided by the early absence of Roughead.

* Hale, David G Missed NAB 1 with a minor ankle injury. Played only part of NAB R2 when did well, then starred NAB R3 and NAB R4. Arguably the Hawks’ best in the NAB Cup

Hill, Bradley Has impressed at training, but unlikely to be in the best 22. Played only part of NAB R2 and not seen since in NAB Cup

* Hodge, Luke G Being eased into the season. Did okay NAB R2 and starred in NAB R3. Low numbers in NAB R4

Lewis, Jordan G Did well intraclub in Tassie Feb. Good numbers NAB R3 & 4

Litherland, Angus Played only part of NAB R2

Lowden, Luke Slight unknown injury feb 2012

* Mitchell, Sam G Did well in NAB Cup R1. Missed NAB R2 & R3, but starred in NAB R4

* Osborne, Michael Playing NAB R3 for Box Hill to get 70% game time. Not named for NAB R4. Looks a little underdone for the season opener and likely to begin in the VFL

* Rioli, Cyril G Good Pre Season fwd 2012; did well intraclub in Tassie Feb. Starred in NAB R4

* Roughead, Jarryd Achilles; may not make it back for round 1; played part of NAB R4, but unlikely to play R1 vs Collingwood

* Savage, Shane Good pre-season. Starred NAB R2. Played only part of NAB R3, then did well in NAB R4

Schoenmakers, Ryan Struggling for form pre-season, but got a lot of the ball NAB R1 at full forward. Played the entire NAB Cup, so definitely in contention for R1 despite not being popular with some fans

* Sewell, Brad Thumb problem in January and missed competitive work. Missed NAB R2, but did very well NAB R3 and did well in NAB R4

* Shiels, Liam Apparently has a groin injury (or hammie?) and missed NAB R2, 3 & 4. In severe doubt for R1

* Stratton, Benjamin S Knee issues in 2011. Being eased into the season and played 45 minutes of a practice match against Richmond on 01 Feb. Played NAB R1A&B, missed R2, did okay R3 and NAB R4

Suckling, Matthew Played only part of NAB R2, then excelled in NAB R3 and did okay NAB R4

* Whitecross, Brendan Played only part of NAB R2. Starred for NAB R3 and did well R4.

Woodward, Alex Coach likes him; gets over the footy and gets plenty of it; seen as a long term replacement for Sam Mitchell. It may be tough to play him AND Sam in 2012. Sore knee and ankle and only lasted a quarter in NAB R2 and not likely to play in 2012 at all

Young, Clinton Bad ankle injury in 2011 . Played Nab R1A and did well NAB R2. Played only a part of NAB R3 and not named NAB R4, so maybe won’t be in the team R1 regular season

Rookies

Frank, Amos Played only part of NAB R2

* McCauley, Broc Played NAB R1 with average figures. But played NAB R4 after Bailey was injured; so he is definitely in the mix for R1

Schneider, Thomas High possession winner but finding it hard to break in to the strong Hawks team. Played only part of NAB R2

Wanganeen, Derick Good pre-season, but may find it tough to break into the team. Played only part of NAB R2