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Added 01 Dec 2012 – Comments on Pre-Season Ladder Predictions (see below in blue – more detail in individual club web pages to come soon)

 

Added 12 April 2012 (& rankings last updated 30 July 2012)

For DT/SC players, this is the week to trade and sack some players + draft some others who are excelling.

But, as well as the pure maths, we need also to look at which teams have had easy or hard matches in rounds 1 & 2.

The 5 “hardest done by” teams are

Freo (played Geel + Syd)

Geel (played Freo in Perth + Haw)

Haw (played Coll + Geel)

Rich (played Carl + Coll)

WBD (played Eagles + Crows in Adelaide)

Players from these teams to look at drafting are:

Freo

De Boer

Johnson

Barlow (in a few weeks when the numbers stack up and he is cheaper)

Geel

Bartel

Hawkins

Motlop

Enright (in a few weeks when the numbers stack up and he is cheaper)

Christensen (maybe not this week, in a week or 2 with likely price drop)

Guthrie

Smedts

Hawks

Burgoyne

Mitchell

Whitecross

Richmond

Rance

Batchelor

Martin (but not yet; wait and you will get him cheaper)

Ivan Maric

Conca

Morris

WBD

Boyd

Higgins (if you have nerves of steel)

Murphy

Hargrave (fitness test this week)

Smith

Lake

 

11 Apr 2012 Amendments made to ratings (see below) after R2

BIG apologies!!

This website is a one person operation. A crisis took me away from the job and much of the last minute pre-season work was not done. The data will be updated when it can be done. The weekly analysis will continue, at least in its basic detail.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Data added 27 March 2012

This is an overall preview of the season to come. Most people see a log jam around 6 – 13. The analysis here suggests a slightly different scenario, with a cluster at 4 -7 with teams 9 & 10 (Richmond – for Tiger fans sake, I hope they don’t finish 9th; and North – who have “won” 9th for the past 2 seasons) being big changes to play finals. The only “in” for the finals at present is Adelaide.

The surprises would be that Essendon is 3rd and the Cats 7th, while the Saints and Freo are well down the list.  the big debate about the top four for most is whether the Blues displace the Eagles.  In reality, it is usually not that simple.  Invariably one team unexpectedly soars while another crashes and burns (generally due to injuries out of control or “trouble at the club”).

More detail in due course in the club by club analysis.


This year’s final ladder is predicted to be:

 

Team Wins Variance     Comment at end of season

HAW 17 L 17 wins and first. Good analysis!

COLL 16 L 16 wins and 4th. Analysis okay

ESS 15 H 11 wins and 11th. A long way off!!

WCE 14 H 15 wins and 5th. Analysis good

 

CARL 14 M 11 wins and 10th. Analysis barely passable

ADEL 14 M 17 wins and 2nd. Analysis better than most!

GEEL 14 H 15 wins and 6th. Wonderful analysis!

SYD 13 M 16 wins and 3rd (then flag). Analysis just fair.

 

RICH 12 M 10.5 wins and 12th. Analysis fair

NMFC 12 M 14 wins and 8th. Analysis good

STK 11 H 12 wins and 9th. Analysis good

PORT 10  H              5.5 wins and 14th. Analysis poor

 

WBD 10 M 5 wins and 15th.  Analysis barely passable

FREO 9 H 14 wins and 7th. Analysis quite poor

BRIS 7 L 10 wins and 13th. Analysis just fair

MELB 5 M 4 wins and 16th. Analysis very good

 

GCS 5 M 3 wins and 17th. Analysis fair

GWS 0 L 2 wins and 18th. analysis fair

The above ladder prediction takes into account luck of the draw and luck of playing teams at the right time (EG the Tigers have caught the Blues at the right time and, while it doesn’t guarantee a win, it increases their chances of a round 1 win). The numbers represent goal difference. So Collingwood (11) should beat the Dogs (5) by 6 goals on a neutral ground with their full lists available. It is especially difficult to rate GWS. The ratings will chance as the year unfolds. But they are changed after careful consideration; and not after one team has a blinder or a shocker

HAW 11

COLL 11 10 (aft R3)

WCE 9

ESS 9

 

GEEL 8 9 (aft R2)

CARL 8 9 (aft R2) 10 (aft R3) 8 (aft R14)

ADEL  7 8 (aft R7) 9 (aft R17) 8 (aft R19)

SYD 7 8 (aft R5) 9 (aft R16)

RICH 7 6 (aft R2) 7 (aft R10)

NMFC 7 6 (aft R10) 7 (aft R16)

STK 6 7 (aft R15)

PORT 5 4 (aft R6) 5 (aft R10)  4 (aft R11)

WBD 5 4 (aft R1) 3 (aft R18)

FREO 5 6 (aft R4) 7 (aft R19)

BRIS 4 5 (aft R14)

MELB 3

GCS 3 1 (aft R10)  2 (aft R17)

GWS 0 -4 (aft R18) -2 (aft R19)

Enjoy your analysis.

Longggey

 

Added 16 Feb 2012

Beginning in Feb and continuing through until the 28th of March, each team will have an update of many players – in particular those struggling with injury or those who could / should excel in the coming season.

This is added to assess overall team prospects, but is also useful for DT/SC players.

The reason behind doing this is to collate data from far and wide into the one place; and to also have a regular update so that analysts can view in an easy format.  Some “old data” may be added into the new updates as it is found.

The data has been gathered from various news sources, with a special thanks to

http://www.footytragic.com/

for much good info.

 

 

 

See individual club previews for player data.  If a player is not listed, there is no news or no known reason to assume his 2012 season will differ from his 2011 output.

First lot of team data to be added by end of 17 Feb 2012 and updated after each NAB Cup match.

Supercoach + DREAM TEAM 2012 Rule Changes

· The 2012 competition returns to the familiar 30-player squad structure, down from 33. You’ll continue to have 24 trades available for the season.

· Head-to-Head leagues have increased to 18 teams per league. The league competitions start from Round 3 and run through to Rounds 19. Each team plays every other once, playing through uninterrupted and including rounds 11-13. League finals will be played in Rounds 20-23.

· An additional trade (up to 3 per round) from your total of 24 for the season will be available in Rounds 11, 12 and 13 (bye rounds). The maximum of 2 per round (from the 24 total) will remain for all other rounds, right to Round 23.

· A partial lockout will apply to the early-starting Rounds 1, 2, 5 and 12 of the 2012 AFL season. The first match (and second match for Round 1) of these rounds will go into lockout at kick-off, however you’ll continue to be able to edit your team with players from the remaining clubs, up until the start of the second match (third match in Round 1) of each round – when the competition will go into full lockout mode.

 

So you won’t have to pick your entire side before game 1 round 1 (when you only have the teams for the Giants and Swans). For round 1, you can adjust all your players (except for Giants and Swans) after game one and also adjust all your players (except for Blues and Tigers players) right up to the beginning of the Friday night game. So you can check to see if your players are actually playing in round 1 before selecting them.

The bye rounds 11, 12 & 13 have 6 teams each week not playing.  You need to come up with a strategy to prepare for these rounds.  An excellent article to get you thinking is found at

http://www.footytragic.com/blog/analyse-this/analyse-this-surviving-the-dreaded-byes/