Round 1
Note: DT+SC players need to finalise their teams before game 1 on Friday 22 March 2013; but can now move players around in their team game by game (after the sub has been announced – handy if you have players on the bench to bring in!).
The round is spread over 2 weekends and the tips below will be done prior to the announcement of any teams. When the team are announced for round 1B on 28 March 2013, extra comments will be made to assist those who didn’t have to lock in their tips prior to round 1A
For the last 7 games, the maths will not be there initially. It may be filled in during the week leading up to the game when teams are known.
Due to work issues, this is being updated on 19 March prior to R1A teams being announced
Apologies for lack of table format
Round 1, 2013
Games Tip / By Variance Outsider is:
1 ADEL V ESS ADEL 10 EXTREME Huge chance
2 FREO V WCE FREO 17 HIGH Tipped to win
Week 2 of round 1
3 CARL V RICH CARL 4 EXTREME Huge chance
4 WBD V BRIS BRIS 9 HIGH Some chance
5 GWS V SYD SYD 33 MEDIUM No hope
6 GCS V STK STK 2 HIGH Huge chance
7 MELB V PORT MELB 10 EXTREME Definite chance
8 NMFC V COLL COLL 13 EXTREME Definite chance
9 HAW V GEEL HAW 15 HIGH Definite chance
Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend
Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark
High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark
Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions
1 ADEL V ESS
Crows probably
The Crows have relatively few serious injuries, but are struggling to get sufficient game time onto several players – notably Callinan, Petrenko, Sloane, Shaw and Tambling. Meanwhile Smith will miss R1, while Tambling and Callinan may be subject to tests. Tambling and Shaw are expected to play SANFL in “NAB4” week to get more game time prior to R1. It will be a difficult balancing act early to get enough talent on the field without having players run out of puff.
Crouch looks almost a cert to debut, while Jenkins appears to be ahead of McKernan (dropped for NAB3) for a spot in the team.
Don players coming in to R1 underdone appear to be Hardingham, Hille and Pears. Zaharakis has yet to play a NAB Cup game will is expected to play NAB4 in the VFL. His preparation is less than ideal.
Who knows how the Dons will come out of their pre-season. This makes the game an EXTREME variance game.
The Crows have been tipped to finish outside the top 8 and Essendon just in it; but the Crows are better placed in terms of injuries and have the home ground advantage. So they are narrowly tipped.
Maths (in points)
Ability: ESS + 6 points
Home Ground: ADEL + 18
Current Form: ESS + 9
Psychological:
Freshness / Injury: ADEL + 6
Total: Crows by 9 points
Accumulator does not begin until Easter Saturday!!
2 FREO V WCE
Dockers in an upset
The biggest surprise here is that the Eagles are favourites.
They are without Kerr, Naitanui, Nicoski, Rosa & Wellingham with Embley, McGinnity, Masten & Waters all underdone
On the Freo front, only Morabito & Sandilands are definite outs, with a small doubt of Fyfe and Pavlich being underdone.
And even though the Eagles are more highly fancied overall, their early form has been ordinary and are too depleted to have a great chance.
Maths (in points)
Ability: Eagles + 6 points
Home Ground: Even
Current Form: Freo + 5
Psychological: Even
Freshness / Injuries: Freo + 18
Total: Freo by 17 points and CERTS (can be bold early in the season when there is no “run” to protect)
Accumulator does not begin until Easter Saturday!!
Other games: see above in table
Best cert: Swans (cert of the week in Last Man Standing); then Dockers
Best Outsider: Suns, then a whole host….. Tigers, Dons, Roos, Cats, Dogs
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): 2 this round: Dockers to win or lose by a point; Suns to get within 21 points of St Kilda at home
Happy tipping!