Round 1


Round 1, 2013

Note:  DT+SC players need to finalise their teams before game 1 on Friday 22 March 2013; but can now move players around in their team game by game (after the sub has been announced – handy if you have players on the bench to bring in!).

The round is spread over 2 weekends and the tips below will be done prior to the announcement of any teams.  When the team are announced for round 1B on 28 March 2013, extra comments will be made to assist those who didn’t have to lock in their tips prior to round 1A

For the last 7 games, the maths will not be there initially.  It may be filled in during the week leading up to the game when teams are known.

Due to work issues, this is being updated on 19 March prior to R1A teams being announced

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 1, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:

1 ADEL V ESS         ADEL 10       EXTREME   Huge chance

2 FREO V WCE      FREO  17      HIGH             Tipped to win

Week 2 of round 1

3 CARL V RICH     CARL 4         EXTREME   Huge chance

4 WBD V BRIS        BRIS  9          HIGH             Some chance

5 GWS V SYD          SYD    33        MEDIUM      No hope

6 GCS V STK           STK    2          HIGH             Huge chance

7 MELB V PORT    MELB 10      EXTREME   Definite chance

8 NMFC V COLL   COLL 13       EXTREME   Definite chance

9 HAW V GEEL      HAW 15        HIGH             Definite chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



Crows probably

The Crows have relatively few serious injuries, but are struggling to get sufficient game time onto several players – notably Callinan, Petrenko, Sloane, Shaw and Tambling.  Meanwhile Smith will miss R1, while Tambling and Callinan may be subject to tests.  Tambling and Shaw are expected to play SANFL in “NAB4” week to get more game time prior to R1.   It will be a difficult balancing act early to get enough talent on the field without having players run out of puff.

Crouch looks almost a cert to debut, while Jenkins appears to be ahead of McKernan (dropped for NAB3) for a spot in the team.

Don players coming in to R1 underdone appear to be Hardingham, Hille and Pears. Zaharakis has yet to play a NAB Cup game will is expected to play NAB4 in the VFL. His preparation is less than ideal.

Who knows how the Dons will come out of their pre-season.  This makes the game an EXTREME variance game.

The Crows have been tipped to finish outside the top 8 and Essendon just in it; but the Crows are better placed in terms of injuries and have the home ground advantage.  So they are narrowly tipped.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 6 points

Home Ground: ADEL + 18

Current Form: ESS + 9


Freshness / Injury: ADEL + 6

Total: Crows by 9 points

Accumulator does not begin until Easter Saturday!!



Dockers in an upset

The biggest surprise here is that the Eagles are favourites.

They are without Kerr, Naitanui, Nicoski, Rosa & Wellingham with Embley, McGinnity, Masten & Waters all underdone

On the Freo front, only Morabito & Sandilands are definite outs, with a small doubt of Fyfe and Pavlich being underdone.

And even though the Eagles are more highly fancied overall, their early form has been ordinary and are too depleted to have a great chance.

Maths (in points)

Ability: Eagles + 6 points

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: Freo + 5

Psychological: Even

Freshness / Injuries: Freo + 18

Total: Freo by 17 points and CERTS (can be bold early in the season when there is no “run” to protect)

Accumulator does not begin until Easter Saturday!!


Other games: see above in table


Best cert: Swans (cert of the week in Last Man Standing); then Dockers

Best Outsider:  Suns, then a whole host….. Tigers, Dons, Roos, Cats, Dogs

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): 2 this round:  Dockers to win or lose by a point; Suns to get within 21 points of St Kilda at home

Happy tipping!