Round 10, 2013
Scores after round 9 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 6 and an improvement from to 26,323 to 22,041 out of 66,239 tipsters
Accumulator: 9.43 and ranking improved from 5,331 to 4,538 out of 11,792 tipsters
Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Dockers won)
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 2 of 3 certs correctly– streak now back to 1 (blown away by the Roos’ loss and back to 1 with the Dockers’ victory)
50/50 tips: 2 out of 4 correct for the round
Wrong: Giants lost by too much, and Roos lost
Right: Dons won by more than 7, and Dogs won
so now at 9 out of 21 = 43% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Early thoughts for R10: Don’t think too hard about the certs of the week. The Blues and Cats are absolute certs; the Hawks are also certs, but are winding down for the bye and may not play with killer instinct.
Quite keen on the Pies to rebound from a Friday night shocker, Port to get back to the winners’ list over the Dogs in Darwin AND the Eagles to get over the Tigers. A slight leaning to the Dockers over Crows and Swans over Dons. Unsure about Roos and Saints for now.
Apologies for lack of table format
Round 10, 2013
Games Tip / By Variance Outsider is:
1 BRIS V COLL COLL 58 HIGH no hope at all
2 CARL V GWS CARL 70 HIGH no hope at all
3 ADEL V FREO FREO 4 HIGH tipped to win
4 SYD V ESS SYD 14 EXTREME a good chance
5 GEEL V SUNS GEEL 71 HIGH no hope at all
6 WBD V PORT* PORT 30 HIGH a tiny hope
7 MELB V HAW HAW 70 EXTREME no hope at all
8 NMFC V STK NMFC 29 HIGH a tiny hope
9 WCE V RICH WCE 31 HIGH a tiny hope
* This match is played at TIO in Darwin
Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend
Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark
High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark
Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions
1 BRIS V COLL
1 Billion fans look away now – The Pies are absolute certs
The old “Friday humiliation” theory kicks in here. Generally when a team plays an ABSOLUTE SHOCKER on a Friday night (then get talked about all Saturday morning), they generally exceed expectations the next week. Expect this to happen.
The Lions have three possible things going for them
A. They play at home twice in a row (offset by the Pies getting an extra day’s break)
B. This is their big showcase game (but often teams crumble under such pressure – EG Richmond)
C. The Eddie issue may cause Krakouer and O’Brien to pull out of this match (but considered unlikely – watch this space as it is game 1; even so, the Pies would still win
Everything else is a minus for the Lions. They go in without Leuenberger, Brown, Merrett, Rich, Beams, Maguire, Golby, Martin and Rockliff.
On top of that, they are forming a 2up 2down pattern. Their last 4 matches vs expectations are -18, -4, +63 and +3. The expected trend would be something less than +3 and quite likely a significant negative. The underperformance estimate would be ~20 points, which equates to an 8 goal loss. This should be close to the mark.
If the Lions are well down late, they may drop off markedly due to the upcoming R11 bye. Pies get their bye in R13
Maths (in points)
Ability: COLL + 30 POINTS
Home Ground: BRIS + 12
Current Form: BRIS + 1
Team Changes: COLL + 9
Psychological: COLL + 19
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: COLL + 11
Total: Pies by 56 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip: COLL ~ 1.18
Post Match Review: Pies were tipped by 56 points and they won by 49. Analysis was spot on. There was a huge rumour on Friday arvo that Cloke was going to miss. It is hoped that the extreme confidence shown here would have swayed people away the temptation to pick the Lions – even in the Accumulator. The technical analysis prediction for the Lions (a 48 point loss) was amazingly close.
PS: What a beautiful kick to position Jack Redden was on Friday night!!
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2 CARL V GWS.
The Blues by plenty
This one doesn’t require a great deal of thought. The Blues should win comfortably and are the CERTS of the week. Yes, the Giants may put in an “above expectation” performance from time to time. In fact, they are tipped to lose by 70 points, less than the experts tip of 83. But that’s nowhere near enough to go close here.
Maths (in points)
Ability: CARL + 30 POINTS
Home Ground: CARL + 18
Current Form: CARL + 25
Team Changes: GWS + 2
Psychological: EVEN
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: GWS + 1
Total: Blues by 70 points and CERTS of the week
Accumulator tip: CARL ~ 1.01.
Post Match Review: Blues were tipped by 70 points and they won by 94. Analysis was okay, although the experts at ~14 goals were closer. But Brogan was a late withdrawal and was replaced by O’hAilpin – who then got injured and subbed out at half time. But, then again, Judd pulled out for the Blues prior to the game. The Blues were correctly named as the CERTS of the week.
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3 ADEL V FREO
The Dockers in a tough one to pick
Going purely on fundamentals, the Crows would be tipped to win, given the home state advantage and injury lists of both teams. And that may prove to be correct.
But the technical analysis all points to the Dockers. The Crows formed the 5th week of a 2up 2down pattern last weekend. Their figures read -19, +12, +87, +19, +15. The 6th week for middle of the road teams in an average of -24 (IE 4 goals worse than expected). The catch is that top teams generally do a goal better than expected in wk6. The Crows have been rated a middle team only. As such, the technical lead here suggests a loss.
Next we have teams that win from a long way down in 4Q have a tendency to underperform the next week. Add to this the emotion of the game, and it may be hard for the Crows to get up.
Back to Freo, the concern on them is the injuries and the fact that the Swans may have been flat after the Hawks game when they drew with the Dockers 2 weeks ago. Nonetheless, Ross Lyon’s boys have hardly put a foot wrong this year.
However, the Dockers have the bye in R11 and, if they fall behind (or are miles in front) late in the game, they may drop off late in the game. The Crows bye is not until R13
Maths (in points)
Ability: FREO + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: ADEL + 24
Current Form: EVEN
Team Changes: EVEN
Psychological: FREO + 12
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: ADEL + 2
Total: Dockers by 4 points
Accumulator tip: FREO ~ 2.03.
Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 4 points and they won by 7. Analysis was excellent (as is generally the case when an outsider is correctly tipped). Maybe the late withdrawal of Silvagni was offset by the controversial disallowed Dangerfield goal. Fortunately for Freo, they won by more than 5 points. The Crows underperformed by 9 points and justifies using the technical analysis as above to select the Dockers. Kerridge scored 143 SC pts last week and 37 this week.
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4 SYD V ESS
The Swans, without great confidence
Both teams were really “up” last weekend. The problem now is to estimate where each team will settle as far as a level of performance in R10. This issue, plus the query on how Adam Goodes will go, and the hype on the game, makes this an extreme variance contest.
There was always going to a query on Goodes before the happenings of the week anyway. He had obviously set himself to play well in R9 and scored 169 SC points. Now he has extra stuff to cope with, including media scrutiny.
The other query on the Swans is the longer injury list than the Dons and the worry that the bottom end of their talent pool is a bit thin. Mitchell (son of Barry) has been picked for his first game and is known as a ball magnet. A lot will depend on the output from the Swans’ bottom tier players such as Walsh, Rampe and Everitt.
The Swans are coming off their 2nd high for the season. At this time of year for top teams, this generally results in them underperforming by 6 points (which would give them a narrow win).
Shaw and Mattner are still not back. The easy way out, but the best in this case, is to pick the Swans outright and the Bombers in the Accumulator (at value).
The Dons appear to be up to the challenge at present and not dropping off like in other seasons. R10 and 11 (vs Blues) will give a good guide as to their staying power. They have the bye in R13, while the Swans have a rest in R12.
Maths (in points)
Ability: SYD + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: SYD + 15
Current Form: SYD + 6
Team Changes: ESS + 1
Psychological: ESS + 8
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: ESS + 4
Total: Swans by 14 points
Accumulator tip: ESS ~ 2.6 (just favoured over Swans at ~1.5).
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 14 points and they won by 44. Analysis was reasonably okay. The best thing was the EXTREME variance call – because one side was likely to be more “down” than the other after both being “up” big time last. The Dons appeared too top-heavy in the conditions, so surprised that another change was not made (Howlett went out and was replaced by Hams, but maybe Merrett should have also replace done of the talls). When a game is as wet as this, the game trend is often that the team in front goes further ahead. There are many less changes of the lead as a rule. And the Dons blew their many chances early in 2Q. they were basically “gone” at half time.
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5 GEEL V SUNS
The Cats to star at night
The Suns would be pleased to be a part of this momentous occasion of the first game under the new lights of KP. That means they will be seen in clips of the game for decades to come; and otherwise soon forgotten players will be seen again and again. Having Gazza jnr playing will also help the publicity.
But, as far as the result is concerned, everything favours the Cats. Firstly, the Suns are on the road to Melbourne for the 2nd week in a row. They caught the Hawks on a good day last week. The Cats get back Kelly, while Vardy returns from a long injury lay-off and several VFL matches. The hierarchy rate him extremely highly, but he is probably not going to show his absolute best in 2013.
Broughton and May are surprise omissions. The latter was an injury concern after the Hawks’ game, and both are now emergencies. May a late change is possible for the Suns. Bennell was considered a chance to return, but hasn’t made it back.
The Cats have a R12 bye, while it is R13 for the Suns.
Maths (in points)
Ability: GEEL + 30 POINTS
Home Ground: GEEL + 18
Current Form: GEEL + 3
Team Changes: GEEL + 1
Psychological: GEEL + 3
Freshness: GEEL + 12
Injuries: GEEL + 4
Total: Cats by 71 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.02.
Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 71 points and they won by 52. Analysis was good enough (not as good as the experts who had a 9 goal win pencilled in). Refer to the mention above to GCS being on the road 2 weeks in a row. This “killed” them in the end; of course, this website expected the Cats to be leading comfortably before the Suns fell away. So the Suns did very well, especially considering they lost Matera about half way. How about Gazza’s goal!!
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6 WBD V PORT (in Darwin)
The Power to be switched back on
The Dogs looked great last week in overrunning the Saints. However, St Kilda had back to back 6 day breaks and a trip to Adelaide in the middle. And then they lose Boyd and Young to injuries.
Port has now underperformed for 3 weeks in a row, following being above the line for the first 6 weeks (for 5 wins). They were blown out of the water early last week by the Cats, but were “in the game” in terms of general play thereafter. That may be a sign that their better form is returning, but it is not quite clear. The overall result was still poor. Sometimes a team with a longish run of outs can snap out of it and a disappointing loss.
But the technical analysis focus this week is on the Dogs. They broke a 7 game losing streak with a 9 point win last week. That is generally a good sign for the following week. But another pattern also formed with the win, and this is probably more significant. They formed a down, down, down, big up pattern. That is, they were below par for 3 week sin a row and getting worse each week. Then followed an effort way above expectations. This is almost always followed by a shocker in the order of -5 goals.
This would give Port a clear win. So Port is the tip, but the lack of trust in them while in this losing streak will create enough caution to avoid tipping them as certs.
Maths (in points)
Ability: PORT + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: WBD + 2
Team Changes: PORT + 7
Psychological: PORT + 21
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: WBD + 2
Total: Port by 30 points
Accumulator tip: PORT ~ 1.53.
Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 30 points but the Dogs won by 9. Analysis was WAAAAAAAY off. So the question is why? Maybe the fact that Port is still in a big slump. Maybe the “narrow win after a number of losses” theme for the Dogs was underrated. The Dogs did extremely well, given that Tom (often injured) Williams went off early and Stevens was propped up in the forward line while struggling to move. Port had their own problems late when Redden went off AFTER Butcher had been subbed off. And maybe Port should have been further in front at half time. The down down down, big up (then big down) is usually very accurate as a technical guide, but didn’t work this time. Maybe the high humidity + heat practice the Dogs did paid dividends. Or maybe Griffen (176 SC points) virtually won it himself.
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7 MELB V HAW
The Hawks in 2nd gear
There is a lot of heat of Mark Neeld this week after the Gerard Healy comments on Monday that “he has 2 weeks to save his job”. Those 2 weeks are against the Hawks and then Pies on QB Monday. IF he needs a win, things look grim. Does Healy know something? There is a usual board meeting next Monday night.
In cases where a coach is about to be sacked (and this is all conjecture; nothing “inside” is known), the players can tend to drop their performance significantly.
On the flip side, the Hawks have been cruising to the R11 bye for weeks now. This is the last leg of their cruise and no problems appear.
The issue to be decided for those who need to tip a margin (or name the highest score for the round etc) is which factor will be strongest – the Hawks easing down to the line, or the Dees in crisis falling to bits against a top team.
Best to stay out of this one but, either way, the Hawks look to be certs.
A rumour was heard that the Dees are asking for pwrmission from the AFL to wear an alternate strip this week: blue and white hoops
Maths (in points)
Ability: HAW + 48 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: HAW + 14
Team Changes: HAW + 2
Psychological: MELB + 2 but chances for extreme variation
Freshness: HAW + 6
Injuries: EVEN
Total: Hawks by 70 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.01.
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 70 points and they won by 95. Analysis was reasonably okay here. The notion f the Hawks easing down to the break didn’t quite materialise as expected. They actually looked like they were beginning their holiday in 3Q, but must have got a rev up at 3QT. The lost 3Q by 11 points and won 4Q by 37. Of course, the Hawks were correctly named as CERTS. Birchall and Hale both doing well upon their return helped!
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8 NMFC V STK
The Roos should atone
The history of teams getting overrun after having big 4Q leads tends to suggest that they will outperform expectations the following week; and usually get off to a good start. The good start stems from all the pent up energy and anger left over from the previous week. And they also tend not to panic or get run down late in the game. In this case, it should mean a win for North.
If the Roos needed extra incentive, it came from Brenton Sanderson’s mouth: Crows 5 goals down but they were “playing the Kangaroos, and therefore a chance” or similar words. It wasn’t meant as an insult, just an observation. But it will sting.
Brent Harvey plays his 250th this week; and this may help to get the team on track in a difficult week.
The Saints ran out of puff themselves last week, but theirs was probably due to 2 x 6 day breaks and a trip to Adelaide. They get a nice 8 day break between R9 and R10. Armitage has been named but is “in some doubt” according to coach Scott Watters.
If the Saints can match the intensity of the Roos, they would be some sort of chance in this game. But, while strongly advising people not to tip North as certs, it is hard to get too excited about the Saints’ chances.
Maths (in points)
Ability: NMFC + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: NMFC + 7
Team Changes: STK + 2
Psychological: NMFC + 18
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: EVEN
Total: Roos by 29 points
Accumulator tip: NMFC ~ 1.22 (but Saints at ~4.0 was tempting).
Post Match Review: Roos were tipped by 29 points and they won by 68. Analysis was reasonably sound. The “good start” referred to above kicked in big time, with the Roos being 55 points up at QT. The remainder of the game was “close”. Put the big win down to 1Q and the fact that the Saints had some players with VERY LOW numbers.
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9 WCE V RICH (on Monday night)
The Eagles are back on track (sort of)
The Eagles may be talking top 4, but their realistic goal should be 5 or 6 and a home elimination final. They would need a top 4 team to fall over in order to make up the wins.
Nonetheless, this R10 match should give them a win to help along the way. But they are still missing Waters. And they are coming off their 2nd high, which generally means a 6 point underperformance at this time of year for team ranked highly. This would equate to a 3 goal win.
The Tigers lost their 3 big marquee games to date this year and then exceeded expectations the following week. This is helpful for us if the trend continues, but not a good thing for a team trying to play finals.
Arnot has been named in the 25 and there are high hopes at Tigerland for him. The 22 won’t be named until late Saturday, in all probability (regrettably for SC+DT players).
The trends above will prevent the Eagles from being tipped as certs; but they will be strongly fancied to win.
Maths (in points)
Ability: WCE + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: WCE + 24
Current Form: WCE + 4
Team Changes: WCE + 2
Psychological: RICH + 19
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: WCE + 2
Total: Eagles by 31 points
Accumulator tip: WCE ~ 1.26.
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 31 points but the Tigers won by 41. Analysis was a long way off. Pondering reasons why!!!?!!! Was it the unfinished business of the Freo loss in Perth earlier in the year? What about the Monday night upset theory? The two Monday night game sin 2013 to date have resulted in HUGE upsets – Saints over Blues in R7 and this one here (Cats were outsiders in beating the Hawks on Easter Monday, but that was an afternoon game). The one Monday night game last year yielded an upset win (again the Saints over the Blues). The favourites won both Monday night game sin 2011 by narrow margins. And in 2010 the Blues had 2 HUGE Monday night upset wins over the 2009 grand finalists Cats and Saints. But why would this happen? This needs further investigation.
There is something interesting about the 2nd high (as mentioned in the preview) and the Eagles. When the 2nd high occurs in weeks 7 – 9, we expect the top teams to underperform by 6 points and the middle teams to underperform by 27 points. So the Eagles (currently listed as a top team) may need to have their rating re-assessed!!
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Best cert: Blues (correct), then Cats (correct), Hawks (correct) and Pies (correct)
Best Outsider: The Dockers are tipped (correct), although that game is almost a 50/50; Dons a hope also (blown away late).
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Pies to win by more than 32 points (correct) and Port by more than 15 points (never likely in the 2nd half)
Happy tipping! Don’t expect too much out of the ordinary this week.
(but Monday night was definitely out of the ordinary!)