Round 10

Data to be added Thursday 31 May, 2012

Round 10, 2012

Scores after round 9 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 5 and cumulative: 59 winners and dropped back to 21,628 out of 72,342 tipsters (ouch! – worst effort for the year, but better is to come) Streak:  tipped 2 of 3 certs correctly, killing off a streak of 5 and the new streak is 2

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (North stopped to a walk and failed to win by over 26 points), so now at 7 out of 9 = 78% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

 Last Man Standing result: alive (Roos won) and this was the sole positive note for the week! 

Early thoughts for R10:  The Cats, Dons and Pies look clear winners; expect the Hawks to be (Shane) savage this week.  There are some really tough games to pick amongst the rest.  Early leaning to the Tigers over the Saints and the Blues over Port.


Game                  Tip    By     Variance        Outsider is





Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend 

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological:  includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.


Tigers the tip
How good is Richmond?  And how good are the Saints, too?  The Saints have now had 3 x 6 day breaks in a row.  They held up brilliantly against the Swans last week.  Was it a special effort for Lenny’s 250th (partly, it is suspected), or that they are now clicking under new coach Watters (maybe).  Or that the Swans had a few injury problems during the game?  In any case, it is more likely than not that the Saints will feel the pinch this week.   Their best hope is to jump to an early lead and let the pressure get to Richmond.  This is their best hope of a win.
The Tigers are trending similar to Geelong in 1989.  The Cats lost an epic R6 game against the all-powerful Hawks and then went on to defeat 3 bottom teams by > 100 points, followed by 3 finalists by > 50 points (and eventually lost a thriller to the Hawks in the grand final!).  Richmond’s form is below that of Geelong in that year, but their R8 game against the Dons (who are a top team now, believe me) gave them the confidence to take the next step.  Then they defeated a top team (the Hawks re still okay – give them time) by over 50 points.  The technical analysis here points to a potential big Tiger victory.
I am not confident enough on the analysis to go with it strongly, but all pointers suggest that the Tigers could romp away if they can establish a decent ¾ time lead.  Keep that in mind, while I say Tigers by 13 points but not certs and the variance is EXTREME!  Richmond last beat the Saints in 2003, but they played a draw last year.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: STK + 6       

Current Form: RICH + 3

Freshness:  RICH + 16

Team Changes:  RICH + 1

Pyschological:  RICH + 1 (but tough to pick – maybe both teams may have a letdown)

Injuries:  STK + 2

Total:  Tigers by 13 points

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 13 points and they won by 8.  Analysis looks pretty good and glad to select the correct team.  But note that the variance was (correctly) listed as extreme and both teams played in short surges.  The Saints did very well to fight back from 20 points down in 4Q, but the Tigers growing maturity helped them to This was the most important game of the round to get right.  This game was a sheer pleasure to watch.


Cats are certs of the week

In the AFL tipping’s Gauntlet, you begin in round 6 and cannot tip the same team twice.  This requires planning.  The Cats are a safe conveyance this week and have not been used previously.
The Cats are using the game to debut 2 players.  For those interested in the Coleman Medal, expect Hawkins to miss until round 13 (after their bye).
The Giants were up for their Skoda Stadium debut last weekend against Sheeds’ old team.  And they were very good early, but kicked themselves out of it.  Expect them to be a bit flat this week.
Likewise, the Cats may be slightly relaxed between 2 big Friday night games (the Dogs game would have been big had they lost!).  They will be thinking about the Blues R11 game already, but percentage would help. 
The Giants are still missing Palmer.   They have a R11 bye and there is a danger that they could “take a smoko” early if the game gets away from them.   The Cats beat the Suns by 150 in Geelong last year.  That would be optimistic this time, but the Cats are big certs nonetheless.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 54 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 18  

Current Form: GEEL + 15

Freshness:  GEEL + 3

Team Changes:  GWS + 4

Pyschological:  GEEL + 5

Injuries:  GWS + 2

Total:  Cats by 89 points and certs

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 89 points and they won by 65.  Analysis was actually pretty good, but the Cats had Corey, Enright and Motlop withdraw before the game (with injuries but presumably to prepare them for the Blues game R11).  So the adjusted margin would have been around the 60 – 70 mark.  There was a concern about how each team would come up from the previous week.   And the Giants played the last quarter like they needed their R11 bye.   Cats correctly tipped as certs.

Hawks were shocking last week, will win easily this time!
Both teams were disappointing last weekend.  The Hawks never looked likely, but finally blew it when they let the Tigers get 2 goals in the last minute or so or 3Q.  The technical barrier had been smashed by then and the Hawks capitulated in 4Q.  Interestingly, both the Hawks (-84 points) and Freo (-30 points) underperformed expectations and maybe their R8 game at a cold, damp Aurora stadium may have had an impact.
The Roos looked like romping in last weekend and ended up limping to the line (without ever looking like losing) over the Lions last weekend.  The worry for North recently is that opposition teams score heavily against them in red time in most quarters.   This will be known by the Hawks who, as mentioned above will be Shane Pippa Savage as anything this week. 
The Hawks were lazy and undisciplined last week and are certain to be better in those areas this time.   If not, they are asking for a downgrading.  North asked for it and got it last week (down from a 7 rating to 6)

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: HAW  + 6    

Current Form: HAW + 2

Freshness:  HAW + 6

Team Changes: Even

Pyschological:  HAW + 10

Injuries:  NMFC + 2
Total: Hawks by 52 points and certs

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 52 points and they won by 115.  Analysis was a long way off, but pleasing nonetheless.  You see, the experts had it as a 4 goal game and some even gave the Roos a sniff.  Note that the Roos have the R11 bye and really dropped off late in the game when it was shot.  The Hawks were correctly labelled certs.



Difficult game to pick, but Crows
Both teams were disappointing last weekend – with the Crows being forgiven more easily than Freo, because of their big win over Carlton the week before.   With Walker back from suspension, they will be favoured to win.   They had no right to lose to the Pies, given the players missing for Collingwood, but they did come off a 6 day break compared to the Magpies 8 days.
The Dockers have been awful for 2 weeks – and note the comment about Launceston above in the Hawthorn preview.  A positive is that they are playing at home for the 2nd week running.  This looks promising, but the team changes don’t inspire.  Dropping both the red and green vest guys from last week; and Anthony is back after seemingly forever playing himself out of the tem a few weeks ago.
There is a faint technical guide on Adelaide.   When a team is on a good winning run and then drops off late in a game to lose (as the Crows did last weekend), they often come out as narrow favourites the following week and absolutely blitz their opponent.   The most recent example is the Pies 2010.  They had won 9 in a row and then were overrun by the Hawks in R22.  The following week, they spanked the Dogs in week 1 of the finals.  The technicals are not strong on the Crows as the loss usually follows an unimpressive win.   The Crows looked “special” the previous week against Carlton. 
Nonetheless, the Crows will be tipped, but the Dockers are a huge chance.  but can the Dockers midfield players Mundy and Mzungu lift?  And can they somewhat restrict Dangerfield and S Thompson as the Pies did last week?   Pearce will be forgiven for his poor effort last week as he was a doubtful starter due to concussion.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 24

Current Form: ADEL + 8

Freshness:  FREO + 6

Team Changes: ADEL + 3

Pyschological:  ADEL + 12
Injuries:  Even
Total:  Crows by 5 points

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 5 points and they won by 29.  Analysis was just okay, but at least the correct team was selected.  And it was correctly labelled as an extreme variance game.   This was evidenced by the Crows being 6 goals up in the third quarter, losing the lead early in the last (thinking about their rest too early?) and then kicking the last 5 goals of the game.  Anything might have happened, but happy to get out of it with the winner.


Dons too good
The Bombers are going much better than the Dees and could only lose if they are off their game.  This seems unlikely as they still have 2 games to go until the bye and have a losable game vs the Swans R11.  and if they are off this weekend, it should only be a few percent.
The Dees looked very competitive last weekend at 3QT when only 16 points down after leading at QT.  This shows that they “came out to play” last week (maybe thinking the Blues were vulnerable).  But the fact that they fell away badly in 4Q shows that they are a long way off their best and are likely to be flat after their R9 drop off.   Sylvia (back in the team this week) and Moloney are way off their 2011 stats and Trengove has dropped off after a good first 2 weeks of the season.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: Even   

Current Form: ESS + 25

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  ESS + 1

Pyschological:  ESS + 5
Injuries:  ESS + 1
Total:  Dons by 68 points and certs

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 68 points but the Dees won by 6.  Analysis was waaaay off and it is never good when your cert gets rolled.  SOOOOOOOORRY!!!  It was mentioned that the Dons could only lose it if they were off their game.  And they were (they fumbled in forward 50 several times in the final quarter), but also the Dees were at their best for 2012 and deserved their first win.  Many Melbourne players had their best figures for the year.  The only consolation was that the Dons were not tipped as the certs of the week.  That would have been a double tragedy.  The other thing of interest was that the Dees were expected to be flat after falling in a heap last week vs the Blues.   But the Dees exceeded expectations by ~ 10 goals this week and the Blues did the reverse.


Blues probably
The Blues are following a traditional technical chart.  A good team out of form has a series of losses and then struggles to overcome a lowly team.  The next week, they come out and play 6 – 8 goals above expectations.   This happened last year when the Saints lost R6, 7 and 8, then battled to beat the Dees in R9.  The following week, they went to Freo as outsiders and won by 46 points.
The Blues trend is similar this year and so they will be picked.  This technical trend works because the win releases negative pressure from the team.  This week, nobody is talking about how bad the Blues are going.  The run away win last week was not according to the technical script, but that may be due to the Dees’ troubles more than Carlton’s form.
Port has almost done a similar thing to Carlton.  They had a long losing run and then overran the Roos 2 weeks ago (the “overrunning” bit of it doesn’t match the technical chart properly) and then smashed the Suns the following week when a narrow favourite.  What usually happens next is that they hold their form without being dominant.
I expected the Blues to be very narrow favourites for this game, but they are ~ 3 goal favourites.  As such, and because the Blues are on breaks of 6, 7 and 6 days, they will be tipped without huge excitement.   And because the technical lead is not completely clear, the variance will be EXTREME.  Yarran may be a doubt to play.


Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 15  

Current Form: PORT + 5

Freshness:  PORT + 9

Team Changes: CARL  + 1

Pyschological:  CARL + 16
Injuries:  PORT + 4
Total:  Blues by 20 points


Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 20 points but Port won by 54.  Analysis was a long way off and the wrong team picked.   The good news was that the Blues were not tipped as certs.  The loss of Kreuzer didn’t help.  And Yarran returned low numbers (maybe played a week too early?).   Judd and Simpson also struggled a bit and Scotland copped an injury.  Port was terrible for a few weeks, but has now genuinely struck form.  Cornes, Broadbent and Pearce have been fantastic in their wins.  The technical analysis for the Blues did not run true; and they are in a bit of trouble now

Eagles the tip
The Eagles are slowly getting players back.  The bonus for them is that Naitanui came back last week to team up with Cox.   The Lions (without Leuenberger long term) have been waiting for Hudson to come back as a partner with Longer.  He comes back this week just as Longer is out without injury.   With Black also out injured, the task looks tricky.  
However, the home ground advantage plus the injury to Butler and suspension of Shuey gives the Lions a small chance.  And 81% humidity will also assist Brisbane

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 24

Current Form:  WCE + 7

Freshness:  WCE + 6

Team Changes:  BRIS + 6
Pyschological:  BRIS + 3
Injuries:  WCE + 4
Total:  Eagles by 14 points

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 14 points but the Lions won by 2.  Analysis was reasonable, but the wrong team tipped (it was a hard week!).  The small positive was that the Lions were given some chance, whereas most experts had the Eagles over the line before the ball was bounced.  



Swans likely to win
The Swans caught the Saints on 2 x 6 day breaks last week, but were not good enough to finish them off.  They did actually win 4Q, but only after the Saints established a huge lead.  There were some excuses, with Johnson and LRT injuring themselves; and Walsh had a Darren Crocker 2nd up after his promising debut a week earlier.  The Swans line-up dominates the preview of this game because Mumford has been named as one of 7 men on the bench along with Jesse White.   The inference is that Mumford will be tested on Friday and will play with a pass; otherwise White will play.   LRT is also likely to be tested on Friday, while Johnson appears to be fine.  If Mumford plays and plays well (he hasn’t played for some weeks and hasn’t been able to do a solid block of training, so he may play limited game time), then the Swans are close to good things.
The Dogs have been competitive with good team recently, but have fallen just short of the mark.   Wood and Addison are welcome inclusions and this is their best team (on paper!) for some time.   They weren’t helped last week with a 6 day break back from Darwin when playing the Cats.  This time a 9 day break is better but almost too long.
A good game to avoid and the variance is EXTREME due to so many unknowns (you may want to seek data on the Swans Friday fitness tests before tipping) and Dogs may be a rough chance if things fall their way

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: SYD + 18

Current Form: SYD + 2

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  WBD + 18 (assuming some bad news for Sydney)
Pyschological:  SYD + 1
Injuries:  SYD + 1
Total:  Swans by 27 points, but not certs

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 27 points and they won by 92.  Analysis was so-so; the correct team was tipped and the variance was correctly labelled as extreme.  Once again, we see a team with the bye coming up (the Dogs) going on an early holiday.  In this case, they seemed to be asleep right from the first bounce.  Then they did okay in the 2nd quarter and that was about it.

The Swans did play Mumford and had no problems with his game time – as they always had the game under control.



Pies should be too good
The Pies had their best win for the year last week with injury troubles before and during the game.  They passed the test with flying colours and now face the 2 bottom teams prior to their bye.   The main problem for them will be keeping the intensity up enough to notch another 2 wins.  The loss of Keeffe (replaced by N Brown this week) and Shaw means that they are on the verge of being uncompetitive.   Playing against a middle of the road or higher team, they may be in trouble this week.   But it’s hard to select the Suns to beat them in Melbourne.
Just as the Suns get mature aged players into the team (Horsley and McQualter), young gun Smith.  Another youngster Hickey comes in as the ruck replacement while Fraser remains on the outer.  With Brennan still doing penance in the NEAFL; and Bock + Harbrow + Matera + Swallow out injured, the Pies will be tipped as certs (but not the best certs of the week).   For Suns fans who may be panicking at team changes, it is Melbourne’s Bennell that has been dropped this week while Harley remains in the Suns’ team.
Guy McKenna says Hunt didn’t recover from the Darwin trip last week and should do better vs Pies.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 42 POINTS

Home Ground: COLL + 18

Current Form: COLL + 23

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes: SUNS + 6    
Pyschological:  SUNS + 19

Injuries:  SUNS + 9
Total:  Pies by 49 points and certs

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 49 points and they won by 97.  Analysis was just average, but correct team tipped and no great damage done.  The Pies lost Jolly and Toovey replaced by Wood and Ugle.  The Suns lost Prestia replaced by McKenzie.  I suspected that the Pies may be on a downer of sorts after their big last quarter effort in Adelaide; but they powered away from the Suns


Best cert:  Cats (comfortable winner), then Dons (bombed out), Hawks (huge win) and Pies (another huge win)


Best Outsider:  The Tigers game will be excluded due to closeness; Freo (not good enough on the day), then Lions (snuck home) and Port  (huge win) are rough hopes


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Hawks by over 28 points (never in doubt)


Happy tipping!  This is another week when picking the favourites will generally stand you in good stead, but some favourites may be a bit shaky


A different look at that one day in September

Likely Premiers in 2012:

Chances listed in ladder order:


Eagles:      unlikely to win in a final in Melbourne

Bombers:   up and coming but not ready to fire in September

Crows:      new coach on a roll, but will run out of puff

Pies:          injuries will catch up with them eventually


Sydney:     have hot a flat spot, so not keen

Carlton:     suspect under pressure

Saints:      in form, but has had too many chances

Hawks:      have too many weaknesses and no ruckman


Cats:         lost too many players from 2011

Freo:         cannot kick enough goals

Roos:        cannot finish games off

Tigers:      on the rise, but not this year


Dogs:        rebuilding and not yet

Lions:        still suffering from the Fev deal

Port:         not even the best team in South Australia

Giants:      too young

Suns:        a one man team and no hope


Arthur Conan Doyle (writer of Sherlock Holmes) says: 


“Once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, no matter how improbable, must be the truth.”

Therefore, the Dees (needing 12 wins from their remaining 13 games to make the 8, so it is mathematically possible) will win the flag.

(hey, the Dees won! Now they only need to win 11 out of 12 for a finals’ berth!)