Round 11, 2013

Round 11, 2013

Scores after round 10 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp

Tips correct: 7 and an improvement from to 22,041 to 19,882 out of 66,355 tipsters

Accumulator: 7.47 and ranking dropped from 4,538 to 4,700 out of 11,795 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Blues won) Streak:  tipped 4 of 4 certs correctly– streak now up to 5 (with Pies, Blues, Cats & Hawks all winning easily)

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 correct for the round
Wrong:  Port lost to the Dogs
Right:  Pies won by over 32 points
so now at 10 out of 22 = 46% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)


Early thoughts for R11:   The Cats and Pies look to be the best certs and all the other games look dicey!  More interim thoughts later in the early week.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 11, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 ESS V CARL         ESS 8 EXTREME   no real outsider here

2 GWS V GEEL       GEEL 44       HIGH             no hope

3 ADEL V SYD        ADEL 6         HIGH             tipped to win

4 SUNS V NMFC     NMFC 17      EXTREME   some chance

5 STK V WCE          WCE 19         HIGH             a tiny chance

6 MELB V COLL    COLL 46       HIGH             no hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions




The Bombers probably

There is an old movie banned at Windy Hill this week – Calamity June!  But fear not, Bomber fans!  A June disaster has not been forecast here.  Previous big downers mid year were from a more injured or less experienced team.

Not that the Dons should be regarded as big certs, either.  This game has many unknowns and has been labelled as EXTREME VARIANCE. 

The concerns on the Dons is that they have a 3 hour shorter break and a flight home from Sydney.  Heppell went for a scan on Monday and may be in some doubt.  And they have been patchy in their form.

Daniher plays his first game, but expect him to cope well due to genetics.  And the loss to the Swans may have been a false lead in that it wasn’t as bad as the scoreboard indicated.  Nonetheless, they will need to do better with inside 50s this week.  Will Jake Carlisle start forward this week?

But there are as many concerns for Carlton.  The jungle drums are beating that Walker may have done a hammie at training.  And there is also a slight doubt on Judd (who was thought only to have been rested last week as a precaution – hopefully, for Blues fans, not the same “precaution” as was sued for Gibbs).  Then there is the fact that teams are underperforming after playing the Giants – maybe getting lulled into a false sense of security.  And still no Carrazzo.

The Dons are on a good, shocker, 3rd week technical chart.  Here is the catch.  Top teams usually outperform expectations at this time of year.  The Dons are rated a top team currently.  A strong win (say, over 3 goals) would confirm their top team status.  But if they significantly underperform (a reverse score), it would show that they have probably slipped to a mediocre rating.

This is not the game to pick your cert of the week.  As this is the first game, you will know about Walker, Judd and Heppell prior to kick-off.  Subtract 5 points for each late withdrawal.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: CARL + 6

Current Form:   CARL + 4

Team Changes:  ESS + 2 (due to doubt on Walker)

Psychological:    ESS + 18

Freshness:    CARL + 6

Injuries:        CARL + 2

Total:     Dons by 8 points
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.83 (tempted by the Blues, but they are currently showing 1.95, so no great value).

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 8 points and they won by 5.  Analysis was pretty good here.  The joy was getting it right – JUST!  But the more important aspect was probably the correct call on EXTREME variance.  This was vindicated by the large swings in momentum (not really picked up by the Q by Q scores as the changes occurred mid-term).  The Blues went from 13 points down in 1Q to 31 points up in 3Q and then managed to lose the game.   In the end, either team could have won, but the Blues will feel that they threw it away.  For the Dons, it tends to confirm their status of a top team (even if only marginally), because they were able to outperform expectations.





The Cats are CERTS of the week

There is a feeling that Geelong win huge against bottom teams.  But they also “rest” a bit as well.  Last year, they were level with the Giants at half time before pulling away.  And they have rested players.  Expect a win, but not a cricket score win (well maybe the Aussie cricket score from the other night!!).

The Cats have the bye after this, so maybe a pattern like the Hawks last week – where they will appear to be not 100% sharp at some points of the game.

The Giants have 2 consecutive home games now (R11+12), so they can use this game as a good lead up to the R12 Port clash, with Port coming off the bye.

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 54 POINTS

Home Ground:     GWS + 15

Current Form:   GEEL + 25

Team Changes:  GWS + 12

Psychological:    GWS + 6

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:        GWS + 2

Total:     Cats by 44 points and CERTS of the week
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.01.

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 44 points and they won by 59.  Analysis was close to perfect here, especially when one considers that Brogan and Greene pulled out prior to the game. The slow start by the Cats indicated that they were / are winding down to the bye.  All they needed to do was to win; and their margin was enough to confirm CERT of the WEEK status. And, importantly, Chris Scott backed us up by saying he didn’t expect a 100 point win (as many were predicting).




The Crows in an upset

Adelaide has the benefit of a 2nd home game in a row and this advantage will be enough to JUST get them over the line, despite the Swans being higher rated.

However, it is easy to be impressed by the Swans since their R8 fade-out against the Dockers.  They smashed the Pies and pulled away from the Dons as well.  But Mattner retires on the week his 2 former teams are scheduled to play (and just prior to ex Crow Tippett beginning for the Swans).  Nice timing!  Jetta going out is a loss, as he was just hitting form.  The “Jack” coming in is Brandon, brother of Kieren.

As mentioned above, the Swans win last week was maybe slightly overblown – as the Dons ended injured and dropped off late.  As a result of this, a positive lead from the Dons go on Friday night will increase the likelihood of a Crow victory (without making it a cert).

The Crows will be desperate to win this one after just dropping the game last week against Freo.   They may have been just a tad off after their miracle win vs Roos the week prior.  So they are expected to be “up” a bit this time.   However, there may be a slight doubt on Mackay who was subbed out with injury last week.

If Freo gained revenge from last year’s final, then the Crows will be looking for a similar result after getting towelled up by a finals’ hardened team in Sydney last year.  The ruck battle may be crucial, and McKernan has returned this week for a drier game to combat the Mumford / Pyke combination.

The Swans are the one team from this contest going to the bye in R12, while the Crows face the Tigers the following week in Melbourne.  So the Swans may possibly drop off late if the game is already won (or lost).

Finally, the Swans are on a 2up 2down technical chart right now.  The trouble is that there last effort was a +34.  So the 5th week (this week) will be less than +34.  All that tells us is that they will win by less than 44 points or lose.  Not much help unless you need the Swans to totally dominate – and the technical analysis says this is highly unlikely – and that if there is any bizarre result, it will be due to the Swans hugely underperforming.   But the Swans can still outperform by, say, 20 points, win by 5 goals and the technical chart still holds true.  But this still rates, on the whole, as a negative for Sydney.

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:    ADEL + 15

Current Form:   SYD + 8

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    ADEL + 10

Freshness:    ADEL + 6

Injuries:        ADEL + 1

Total:     Crows by 6 points
Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 2.50.

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 6 points but the Swans won by 77.  Analysis was horrible!!!! And so were the Crows.   The technical analysis was way off the mark (suggesting that a huge Swans win was out of the question).

And so we ask, “Why?”  Firstly, the Crows cheated us.  They told us on Friday that David Mackay and Scott Thompson had passed fitness tests.  Mackay pulled out on Saturday and Thompson had his lowest SC numbers for the year.

The loss (with an asterisk) is symptomatic of a flu virus performance.  What usually happens is that a team suffering from the flu starts well.  When you have the flu, you often feel okay for shorts bursts.  The Crows dominated early, in terms of inside 50s (but without turning them into goals), but then got totally blown away thereafter.  That is typical of the flu.  The only difference is that there is rarely a late fight-back, as occurred on Saturday.  That may have been because the Swans are heading into the bye, whereas the Crows have to play R12. 
The other thing that happened was that Petrenko was to play a negating role on McVeigh, but was subbed out early with injury.




The Roos tipped without total surety

The Kangas are following a somewhat similar pattern to the Cats in 2006 – looking promising at times, with frustrating losses and heartbreak.  Of course, Roo fans will accept all this if it leads to 3 flags in the next decade!!

What is necessary in tracing the pathways of Geelong 2006 and NMFC 2013 is to work out when the Roos will crash next.   Their R9 collapse vs Crows corresponded with a similar Cat collapse in R10, 2006 to the Eagles after leading at KP by 36 points at 3QT.  They following week, the Cats came out and demolished a struggling Dons team, then went west for a great victory over the Dockers who were in the 8 and higher placed than Geelong.

If this trend corresponds to the Roos, it would mean an impressive win against the Suns this weekend.  But the Cats hit the brick wall the following round (after a week’s break), when they lost to the Crows in Adelaide by 92 points.

The most likely path for the Roos is to still be up this week; and the tip will be made on this assumption.  However, they are also on their 2nd high and a mid range team such as them would generally underperform by 15 points in such a scenario (which would yield a 3 point victory – still a win, but hardly a margin to feel comfortable about!).

They also have to cope with a relatively high humidity.

The Suns were great for 3 quarters against the Cats last week under lights.   This was their 2nd week on the road against the top 2 teams.  So a drop-off was expected.  And the return trip home should be a benefit to them.  The only concern was the horrible falling away late after being competitive.  This often leads to a poor performance the following week.

Which leads to the next topic: there were rumours that Wilkinson, Stanley and Sumner had niggly injuries last week.  All have been named, with Brennan, who returns from a knee injury, named as emergency.  This smells like “late change”, so watch out for news of a GCS late withdrawal on the day.

Roos are tipped, but all these mixed signals means that the variance is EXTREME and the Suns will be tipped in the Accumulator.

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:     SUNS + 18

Current Form:   NMFC + 5

Team Changes:  NMFC + 1

Psychological:    NMFC + 10

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:        NMFC + 7

Total:     Roos by 17 points
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 3.30.

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 17 points but the Suns won by 15.  Analysis was just reasonable, but saved by tipping the Suns in the Accumulator and a return of 3.3 for the game.  The technical analysis pattern that “held true” was that the Roos, as a mod range team, had a downer after their 2nd “up” for the season.  What was not known was that the downer would be >19 points (34 actually) and therefore resulted in a loss.  Also, the humidity (95-100% for much of the game) and the rainfall helped the Suns.  Plus they managed to have McKenzie as a loose behind the ball – which worked well.   Perhaps too much emphasis was put on to the poor last quarter by the Suns vs Cats in R10.  But, then again, this wouldn’t have been enough to tip the Suns outright – it just would have made the Accumulator tip more certain.


. .



The Eagles to atone

Last week, the news from the west was that the top 4 was still on the radar for WCE.  Now they are doubtful to make the finals at all!

The typical response to this is to come out and play like stars the following week.

One could expect a similar output from the Saints after an absolute shocker in 1Q last week.  But their finals hopes had diminished before last week, so the bounce-back effect is likely to be far less.

The other plus for the Eagles is that their depth seems to be better.  Waters still out is a surprise, but their “ins” look a little better than those of the Saints.

The concern about losing both Glass and Le Cras should not deter you from picking the Eagles.  They both scored low points last week – which may partially explain the lacklustre effort vs the Tigers.

Both teams are heading to the bye next, so look for the drop-off effect late in the game.  The Saints have some hope, but they are not greatly fancied.  The one positive is that the Eagles come off a 6 day break.

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:     STK + 21

Current Form:   WCE + 7

Team Changes:  WCE + 6

Psychological:    WCE + 15

Freshness:    STK + 6

Injuries:        STK + 6

Total:     Eagles by 19 points
Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 1.35.

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 19 points and they won by 4.  Analysis was fair.  It was fair, but not brilliant.  The fact that the Eagles underperformed in this game after a poor loss means that their rating will be changed to a mid range team.   In fact, the average underperformance for a mid range team in such a pattern (good, then shocker, then 3rd week) is -16.  They won by 4 with an expectation of +19, so they were -15 on the day – enough to squeak over the line.

They were a bit lucky to win at all.  For anyone who tipped the Saints outright, or in the Accumulator, feel like you were brave, but not favoured.




The Pies to roll on

The 10 day break for the Pies is not really ideal, but it is hard to see them losing this one.

Dane Swan went for a scan this week.  With the Pies going for a bye in R13 and maybe resting players this week, look out SC+DT players!!   And, if the Dees are “on” to any extent, they could produce a lower margin than many expect.

But, then again, with the Dees having a bye immediately after this game, there is a chance that they could drop off severely and give the Pies a decent percentage boost.

It is a surprise to see Krakouer dropped after being the star of the show 3 weeks ago.

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 42 POINTS

Home Ground:     EVEN

Current Form:   COLL + 17

Team Changes:  MELB + 1

Psychological:    MELB + 11

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:        MELB + 1

Total:     Pies by 46 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.01.

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 46 points and they won by 83.  Analysis was fair.  At least no damage was done.  The Dees showed fight for a quarter, but their skills were sub-standard.  So the thought about the Dees being revved up was true (sort of), but too short-lived to be of any use on the scoreboard.  At least the Pies were correctly tipped as certs.



Best cert: Cats (won well), then Pies (won well).

Best Outsider: Crows are clearly the best outsider (never a hope)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  The Giants to win or lose by less than 83 points (never looked like falling behind by 83 points).

The Crows to win or lose by less than 8 points (never a hope).

Happy tipping!  This is an interesting week, despite only 6 games being played over 4 days.