Round 12


Data to be added Wednesday 13 June, 2012 (when teams for only one game will be known) and comments added after the teams are announced on Thursday, but tips will not be changed (for the sake of integrity of the website)

Round 12, 2012

Scores after round 10 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 4 and cumulative: 69 winners and dropped to 17,939 out of 72,605 tipsters Streak:  tipped 1 of 2 certs correctly.  The Bombers (2nd week in a row) killed off another small streak, and the new streak is 1 again

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Dons lost), so now at 8 out of 11 = 73% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Last Man Standing result: eliminated (Dons lost)

Should also mention Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp.  This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping.  Scored a miserable 2.62 in week 11 for a total of 96.74 and dropped back to a ranking of 534 out of 11,840 tipsters (anything better than 1,000 is excellent).

Early thoughts for R12:  The byes affect everyone this weekend.  Every team playing has either come off a bye or is about to have one.  It makes for fascinating analysis. 
The bye data is:
Eagles (bye R11) vs Blues (3 x 6 day breaks in a row and will need their R13 rest)
Crows (bye R11) vs Saints (2 x 6 day breaks and a bye R13)
Giants (bye R11) vs Tigers (bye R13)
Suns (bye R11) vs Roos (bye R11)
Hawks (bye R13) vs Lions (bye R13)
Dogs (bye R11) vs Port (bye R13)
The general rule in previous seasons was that the team coming off the bye is 1 goal worse off.  But shorts breaks plus multiple interstate trips for the Blues and the Saints makes it almost impossible for both to win.  The Hawks and Tigers also appear to be certs.

This week, you can choose your DT+SC players for the Thursday game prior to the commencement of the game and then adjust your players for the others games prior to game 2 beginning on Friday night.



Game                  Tip    By      Variance              Outsider is


1. WCE V CARL    WCE  37         HIGH          THE BLUES HAVE NO HOPE

2. ADEL V STK     ADEL  42        HIGH              THE SAINTS HAVE NO HOPE

3. GWS V RICH     RICH   62          HIGH             THE GIANTS HAVE NO HOPE


5. HAW V BRIS     HAW   64         HIGH              THE LIONS HAVE NO HOPE





Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

1.  WCE vs CARL
The Eagles comfortably

Are the Blues back in town?  Not quite; they are heading down Sydney road past the Fawkner cemetery at present.  They looked much better last weekend against the Cats.  But Geelong isn’t playing premiership footy and 4 of the players who came back for 1 week prior to the bye (Enright, Hawkins, Corey and Wojcinski) all scored below average Supercoach points.  So, even though the Blues wasted a few chances in 4Q, they are still a bit off the pace.  Getting back Scotland and Carazzo will help, but they are both likely to face fitness tests; and maybe Warnock as well.
The Eagles lose Waters to suspension and get back Shuey from suspension.

The bye (for the Eagles) is assessed as a 1 goal negative, but the Blues now face their 3rd consecutive 6 day break which includes a trip to SA and WA.  This is far worse than having to get up after a week’s rest.  The most similar comparison is round 16, 2011.   The Cats had only 2 x 6 day breaks when they went to Perth to play the Eagles, who had had the bye in R15.  The Eagles established a huge lead of 35 points at half time.  The Cats clawed the lead back and eventually lost by 8 points.  This year, the Eagles are at about as good (better, but with more injuries) as last year and the Blues are quite a way short of the Geelong 2011 form.  
Rain is forecast and when the favourites get a few early goals in the wet, they often run away with it.
All this means the Eagles are certs!

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 6 POINTS (but they are not at their peak now)

Home Ground: WCE + 24

Current Form: WCE + 8

Freshness:  WCE + 18

Team Changes:  CARL + 2 (but watch out for late changes)

Pyschological:  CARL + 6

Injuries:  WCE + 1

Total:  Eagles by 37 points and certs

Accumulator tip: WCE ~  1.25

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 37 points and they won by 10.  Analysis was just average.  The good news was the right team was picked and the Eagles never really looked like losing (if we ignore Blues fans reference to the umpires).  In fact the Eagles probably erred late in the game when 23 points in front.  The Blues were down and out and the Eagles should have gone for the jugular.  Instead, they kicked sideways and backwards for a minute or two, turned the ball over and let the Blues back in with a sniff of a miracle win.  One never wants a cert to win by less than 2 goals, but in this case the cert tag was okay.  Maybe the Eagles were slightly flat after the bye.  They also went a man down late when Schofield did his hammie.  And they kept the Blues in the game with inaccuracy.

2.  ADEL vs STK
The Crows easily

This week sees the Saints with a 2nd consecutive road trip and a 6 day break.  Not good.   They may be able to beat the Giants in week 2, but not the Crows.  The Saints may, however, get back Fisher and are apparently less likely to regain McEvoy.
Last time these teams played, the Saints won (at the Docklands) by 103 points!!!!   A little extra incentive for the Crows

As above, the Crows’ week is assessed as minus 1 goal, but almost everything else points to the Crows as easy winners.  The Saints have been terrific recently with short breaks and interstate trips, but this one will get the better of them.   Showers are forecast.

Anticipated changes: (certs or near certs in red)
In:  Henderson, Otten
Vince (suspended), Johncock
In:  Geary, Fisher
Out: Simpkin, Saad (concussion)

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 18

Current Form: STK + 1

Freshness:  ADEL + 18

Team Changes:  STK + 1

Pyschological:  STK + 6

Injuries:  ADEL + 2

Total:  Crows by 42 points and certs

Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 1.45

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 42 points and they won by 4.  Analysis was only reasonable.  This was a typical technical analysis game of interest.  The Crows were 31 points up at 3QT (partially due to the Saints missing easy shots) and then missed two gettable chances early in the last.  Had either been kicked, the Saints would have been likely to be deflated.  However, both were missed and then the Crows worked to save the game rather than win it.  In retrospect, the “certs” tag on the Crows was not correct but, as the yanks say, “I lucked out”.  The Saints kicked a goal after the siren.

3.  GWS vs RICH
The Tigers to bounce back

GWS have exceeded the expectations of many this year; the big question now is: how will they finish off the year?  More immediately, how will they come off the break?  Not as well as some others, I suspect. 
Given their youth, it will be harder for them to get up and (in their own minds) run a second marathon of 11 games.
Richmond may lose Riewoldt, but King is back from suspension and Foley is a chance to return.  Surely Deledio and Martin will return better numbers this week than last.
The Tigers probably had a letdown after the huge game against the Saints the previous week.
Not too many dangers for them here.  The Tigers are likely to rest Riewoldt if there is any minor risk.   Lots of rain is forecast for Saturday in Sydney.

Anticipated changes: (certs or near certs in red)
General Patton (do a web search on this if you don’t know where his nickname originated), Folau (test), Kennedy (test)
Coniglio (thumb), Phillips (wrist, test), Townsend (jaw, test)
In:  King, Foley
Out: O’Hanlon, Riewoldt (ankle)

Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 42 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 18

Current Form: RICH + 14

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  RICH + 4

Pyschological:  RICH + 18

Injuries:  RICH + 2

Total:  Tigers by 62 points and certs

Accumulator tip: RICH ~  1.02

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 62 points and they won by 12.  Analysis was barely passable and at least no harm was done. The Tigers totally dominated everywhere bar the scoreboard (the game is actually about outscoring the opposition, you know).  The Tigers were correctly labelled as certs, despite their battling win.

The Giants actually performed better than most teams coming off the bye, especially considering the changes they had to pull in view of injuries.

4.  SUNS vs NMFC
Roos to rebound

These 2 teams have been doing it tough.  Not as Bad as Lindy Chamberlain, but life has not been easy.  The Suns’ injury list is the worst it has been all year.  The club got a public rev from the coach after their bad loss to the Saints last weekend.   So expect them to show something this week.  One plus (as distinct from “plus one”) is that they are at home for the 2nd week running.
The Roos, likewise, hit rock bottom in their most recent match prior to the bye.  Their only positive was that there was plenty of other bad news subsequently and they partially escaped the media spotlight.   The Hawks’ loss was a “trouble at the club” loss and Eugene Arocca has departed.  But there is little chance of the coach following any time soon!
Logic dictates that the Roos should win this easily, but it’s hard to get excited about a team that has been tailing off late in quarters and in games prior to a 115 point loss.  The unreliability of these two teams and generally terrible recent form makes the variance EXTREME.

Anticipated changes: (certs or near certs in red)
In:  Fraser,
Horsley, May, Weller
Brown (leg), Day, Sexton, Toy
In:  Gibson, McMahon, Thomas
Out: Black, C. Delaney, MacMillan

Maths (in points)

Ability:  NMFC + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 18

Current Form: NMFC + 6

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  SUNS + 3

Pyschological:  Even (but difficult to work out)

Injuries:  NMFC + 5

Total:  Roos by 20 points

Accumulator tip: GCS ~  5.50 (don’t really want to tip the Suns at any “value”, but the alternative is going for the Roos at 1.15!!!)

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 62 points and they won by 12.  Analysis was pretty good here.  The experts had the Roos as 6 goals certs, although some tipsters were cautious, given the Roos’ ordinary form prior to the bye.  Given the fact that the Suns could have snatched it in the last 2 minutes, the call of Roos as winners but, by no means certs, was correct.  Yes they, like Richmond, dominated most aspects of the game, but their hold on victory was shakier.

Ablett got his highest SC score for the year and Rischitelli far exceeded his recent ordinary form.  The accumulator tip for Gold Coast didn’t bear fruit, but was justified at a score of 5.50

5.  HAW vs BRIS
Hawks to swoop

This game doesn’t need a long analysis.  The experts are tipping the Hawks by plenty (8 goals) and they may well win by more than that.   The Lions had a great come from behind victory at home over the Eagles before the bye, but that will be difficult to replicate on a cold and wet MCG.  Especially with Black still missing, as we suspect

Anticipated changes: (certs or near certs in red)
No change (the Franklin report was withdrawn)
In:  Beams. Longer
Out: Cornelius,
McGrath (knee, test)

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 42 POINTS

Home Ground: HAW + 18

Current Form: HAW + 5

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  BRIS + 1

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  Even

Total:  Hawks by 64 points and certs of the week

Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.08

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 64 points and they won by 65.  Analysis was perfect.  The experts had it is an 8 goal win, but it looked a bit bigger than that, by our analysis.  Maybe the upset Brisbane win over the Eagles skewed the analysis for some.  The Hawks were correctly labelled as certs of the week.

6.  WBD vs PORT
Dogs to atone, probably

This is not a game to be very keen on.  The Dogs have had 2 Darren Crockers this year.   The 1st was a whipping by the Saints in R3 and then vs the Swans in R10.   In between times, they have been doing okay without looking a finals threat.  The Swans loss was made worse by:

A. The Swans being in hot form
B. The upcoming bye meant that they went on holidays early once the game was gone
C. Cordy and Wood needed the run
D. Dalhaus (Rock), Gia and Lake had rarely to be repeated shockers
Expect a much better effort this time.  Of course, they come off the bye and Port gets their rest next after the Dogs game. 
With both teams in the bottom 3rd of the ladder and the bye situation, this is assessed as an EXTREME variance game.  Here it means “tip with caution”, “avoid if you can” and “unusual scoring patterns and winning margins are possible”.
Port is struggling now after losing Boak for a month and then Thomas pulling out late last week.  At least the Eberts have been a positive – like having 2 bishops in chess.   Last weekend, McCarthy may have come back a week early and expect a better effort from him this week.

Anticipated changes: (certs or near certs in red)
In:  Jones
Out: Pearce
In:  Thomas (test), Logam
Out: Hitchcock, Surjan

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: WBD + 18

Current Form: PORT + 9

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:  WBD + 4 (but hard to assess)

Injuries:  WBD + 5

Total:  Dogs by 18 points

Accumulator tip: tough call:  WBD ~  1.50

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 18 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was a bit better than it looked.  Port ran out of fit players in the end and didn’t have a realistic chance.  Also, the Dogs blew their chances early despite totally dominating.  Had either have been different, the result may have varied a lot.  This probably justifies the EXTREME variance tag; and also explains why, despite a 6 goal + win, the Dogs shouldn’t have been labelled as certs.  And they did it for Charlie Sutton!

Best cert:
Hawks, then Tigers, Crows and Eagles (they all won, but some narrowly)

Best Outsider Port is the best outsider (if you must pick one), despite letting us down badly last week (they were never a realistic chance and injuries cost them – I wasn’t too excited about outsiders this week; actually the Suns were the best roughie in the end)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Crows by over 3 goals (they had it sewn up for most of the night, but fell away badly to won by only 4 points; OUCH!!)

Happy tipping!  The favourites look good for this week on the whole and probably not a good week to be too outlandish. (true)