Round 12, 2013

Round 12, 2013

Scores after round 11 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp

Tips correct: 4 and dropped from 19,882 to 22,400 out of 66,428 tipsters

Accumulator: 8.5 (extremely good) and improved from 4,700 to 3,813 out of 11,796 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Cats won) Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly– streak now up to 7 (with Pies & Cats winning easily)

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 correct for the round
Right:  Giants to get within 83 points of Cats
Wrong:  Crows to get within 8 points of the Swans
so now at 11 out of 23 = 48% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)


Early thoughts for R12: a lot of teams coming off the bye (Hawks, Tigers, Port, Dogs) playing teams about to have a bye (Blues, Crows, Giants, Pies).  This leaves 2 “normal” games: Dockers and Lions, who are both coming off a bye; the Dons and Suns who are both about to have a bye.
In 2011, teams coming off a bye underperformed on average by 9 points, then outperformed expectations the following week by 3. 

The 2012 pattern is more chaotic (to be expected as teams try strategies to overcome the bye, and as the byes are clumped together in mid-season).  But of the 12 teams coming off the bye last year (the other 6 played teams who were ALSO coming off the bye and therefore these results have been excluded from the results), they underperformed expectations only by 5 points.  In the 2nd week after their byes, they were basically performing to expectations (on average).  But the variances were a large 45.  This is because some teams hugely underperformed and others hugely outperformed. 

Now here is the fascinating thing for 2012:  the four teams that outperformed after the bye ALL underperformed the following week.  This suggests their efforts to be right after the bye were so intense that they “collapsed the following week.  And their scores in week 2 were -32, -36, -56 and -76.  We are talking huge downers!!

For the teams that underperformed after the bye, 3 underperformed AGAIN the following week (but only 1 significantly – the 3 teams had scores in week after bye and following week of -11 & -51; -12 & -9; -2 and -10).  The other five teams that underperformed in week 1 after the bye outperformed expectations the following week.  Their scores read -17 & 76; -55 & 45; -29 & 51; -51 & 90; -16 & 12.

The trend here is that will be reviewed in 2013.   The bye trends will tend to fluctuate as teams strategise for the best method to negotiate the byes.  The underperforming trend in 1991-94 (when byes came in for the first time in years) was that teams were awful early on first up after the bye, but they got better at it through the 1991 season.  Then trends weren’t so obvious after that.   But 2012 & 2013 are the first years that the byes are so heavily clustered in one time frame. 

This week, a 1 goal negative will be assigned to the teams coming off the bye (and playing a team NOT coming off the bye).  The next few weeks will be even more interesting, and may provide scope for big surprises!!

After all that preamble, the Dockers (coming off the bye and playing the Lions – also coming off the bye) look to be the best certs.  Many people have just selected the team that plays the Giants as the cert of the week.  Port might be a slight risk this week as they come off the bye and the Giants have a second week at home in a row.  Hawks, Tigers, Dons and Pies will all be the outright tips this week, barring something unusual occurring.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 12, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 CARL V HAW      HAW 22        EXTREME   some chance

2 RICH V ADEL     RICH 24        EXTREME   a tiny chance

3 FREO V BRIS      FREO 66       MEDIUM      no hope at all

4 ESS V SUNS          ESS 57           HIGH             no hope at all

5 GWS V PORT      PORT 26       EXTREME   a tiny chance

6 COLL V WBD      COLL 43       EXTREME   no hope at all

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions





The Hawks should win

The Hawks have only 2 worries. If they overcome these, they will win. Firstly, they are coming off the bye and the Blues are going to the bye. Next, the Hawks played lowly teams in R8-10 leading up to their bye (even though the Suns pushed them). If they can overcome these obstacles, and get a reasonable start, all should be well.

For the Blues, teams that have a shocker on a Friday night often outperform the next week. But a narrow loss to the Dons was within the realms of expectations – only the last 1 ½ quarters were terrible.

Maybe this can lift them; as such, the Hawks won’t be named as certs. Carrazzo may be slightly underdone.

The roof closed will be pleasant for players, but the Blues aren’t at their best at Etihad.

Hawks by 26 points

Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.24

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 26 points and they won by 15.  Analysis was good enough.  The result showed that the Hawks should NOT have been tipped as certs.  They struggled to get over the line – even after Marc Murphy went off early.  Mitch Robinson was also restricted.  In the end, it was yet another honourable loss for the Blues.  For those who picked the Blues in the Accumulator, it was a reasonable pick.





The Tigers, but not certs

Similar to the above game, the Tigers should win, so long as they are on the ball. They are higher rated and have the home ground advantage. The only concern is that the Crows may be desperate (with their season slipping away after losing 2 home games in R10&11 – admittedly losing to top teams). The Freo R10 game was played in wet conditions and may have hampered their play in R11 (flu or similar problems – Freo have the R11 bye)

Tigers by 27 points

Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.35

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 27 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was pretty good and the temptation to overrate the Crows based on their determination to bounce back from a shocker was resisted.  The simple logic (better team, better form, home ground) paid off.





The Dockers by heaps

Although the Lions’ team looks better with good players coming back, they still miss Brown, Merrett and Maguire. Maybe one or 2 of their inclusions won’t be in top form. Leuenberger was marked as be several weeks away just recently.

Losing Moloney won’t help.

Dockers by 61 points and CERTS of the WEEK

Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.05

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 61 points and they won by 40.  Analysis was just okay.  Maybe the motivation for Freo was somewhat lacking (since they knew they had it won before the game started) and they seemed to be a bit flat early on.  Or maybe the Lions came off the bye more determined than the Dockers.  At least the correct tips were made (except for the 50/50 – see below).





The Dons comfortably

The Suns are travelling for the 3rd time in 4 weeks and will need next week’s break.

Both teams have a bye next week. Expect the Dons to be on song and for the Suns to drop away in 4Q.

The only danger – Dons taking the Suns too lightly and enjoying their “weekend off” last week will be disregarded.

The Suns losing Dixon won’t help

Dons by 45 points and CERTS

Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.20

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 45 points and they won by 43.  Analysis was extremely good in this instance.  Maybe the Suns were unlucky due to lack of bench rotation, but the Dons had problems of their own.  Even though Hurley only went off late, he seemed to be hampered even before that and didn’t seem to want to chase the defenders.  Another though about the Bombers is that tended to take their foot off the pedal when they had a chance to romp home by 10 – 12 goals.  A good future awaits the Suns, who have played in Melbourne 3 of the last 4 weeks.





Port without great confidence

Wise old football saying: never get too excited about tipping a team on a long losing run. The Giants haven’t won all year, while Port has lost their last 5.

The blast loss vs the Dogs might be the one to shake Port back into form – even though the bye occurred after this game.

For those who have picked the team playing the Giants as their cert each week – this could be the ONE WEEK not to do it. Anyway, there are safer options available.

This is an EXTREME variance game – due to the untrustworthiness of both sides. The most likely result (and the best for Port) would be an unimpressive, slugging win for Port.

Port by 21 points

Accumulator tip:  GWS ~ 4.70

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 21 points and they won by 75.  Analysis was both good and poor.  Poor because a few things were missed:  Port was soundly beaten and had their coach sacked in their only other visit to this ground (R19 2012 vs GWS – although they subsequently belted the Giants in R2 this year).  Next, the inexperience of the Giants was not fully taken into account (out injured or reserves were Brogan, Cornes, Davis, Gilham and Thornton) – then Palmer pulled out injured before the game.  So, while the EXTREME variance call was totally correct, the mean should have been skewed more towards Port.  And this may have caused the Accumulator tip to be correct.  The big win by Port does not bode well for their next game at home vs the Swans.





The Pies, but not total certs

The bye came at the wrong time for the Dogs. They had won 2 in a row for the first time in ages. But now they get back Boyd and Cooney. This will help, but the Pies should be able to get to their bye with a win. They haven’t been totally convincing, but doing well enough to be almost safe here.

Pies by 32 points

Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.12

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 32 points and they won by 34.  Analysis was perfect.  The end result was close and the EXTREME variance call was correct due to the wild swings in scoring.  The Pies did well enough to cover the late withdrawal of Luke Ball.  The horrible start by the Dogs suggested that they did not come off the bye too well, but either found their rhythm after half time – or maybe the Pies dropped off as their week’s rest approached.




Best cert: Freo (never in doubt), then Bombers (never in doubt)

Best Outsider: The Giants may be the best of a bad bunch. (never a hope and maybe a week in which none should have been listed)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):

The Dockers to win by more than 50 points (just failed to get there)

The Dons to win by more than 36 points (always looked likely, but made hard work of it)

Happy tipping!  This is not a week to be too adventurous.