Round 13.


Data to be added Thursday 21 June, 2012

Round 13, 2012

Scores after round 12 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 6 + bonus of 2 = 8 and cumulative: 77 winners (including bonus 2 points) and improved from 17,939 to 12,665 out of 72,685 tipsters (the bonus sure helps one to leapfrog a few places!) Streak:  tipped 4 of 4 certs correctly.  The streak is now a modest 5.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Crows didn’t win by > 3 goals), so now at 8 out of 12 = 67% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

AFL Tipping Gauntlet result: correct (Richmond)  sorry, forgot to add to the website last week

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  6.3 points for the round and improved from a ranking of 534 to 492 out of 11,847 tipsters

Early thoughts for R13:  Quite keen on Dogs over Lions (2nd week on the road + 6 day break) and Dees over Giants.  Pies should beat the Eagles, but just feel a bit wary about it. Swans (vs Cats) and Crows (vs Roos) will be favourites but face danger games while Freo vs Dons is hard to pick


Game                  Tip    By      Variance        Outsider is

1. SYD V GEEL    SYD 4                EXTREME      THE CATS ARE A BIG CHANCE







Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.


1.  SYD vs GEEL
The Swans without any confidence
In Round 23 last year, Sydney won down at Geelong last year to break a run of umpteen home wins in a row for Geelong.  The Cats had the bye the previous weekend then beat the Pies by 16 goals in R24.  Bizarre!

At first glance, the Swans really look the Goodes, with both Goodes (from injury) and McGlynn (from suspension) returning. 
But there are enough negatives to make this a virtual line ball game.  Goodes is back from his longest injury lay-off in years.  He may star, but that is a slight risk.  And, while the Swans have their best team all year on the park, the same is also true for the Cats.
Stringer (club suspension) was probably going to be omitted for Christensen anyway, and Pods returns.  The interesting one is Dawson(‘s Creek) Simpson in for Stephenson (who has been red vested of late).   His form against Mumford may decide the game.  He doesn’t have to star for t
he Cats to win, but he and (Adam) West can’t be totally outplayed by Mumford and Pyke either.  Then there is the “known unknown” of Corey, Enright (that’s 2 people), Hawkins and Motlop.  They all played R9, missed R10 vs Giants, played R11 and then had the bye.  How they all come up will help decide the game, but it is a difficult one to call.

The Swans last quarter fade-out against the Dons may be a bad sign usually, but it came before a bye.  So it will be largely ignored with an * to say “BEWARE – EXTREME VARIANCE GAME”.  Both teams a re coming off the bye.

Stokes has apparently passed a test on a hammie to play.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 6 POINTS (but they are not at their peak now)

Home Ground: SYD + 18

Current Form: SYD + 5

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GEEL + 2

Pyschological:  GEEL + 6

Injuries:  GEEL + 5

Total: Swans  by 4 points

Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~  2.22 (Richie)



Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 4 points and they won by 6.  Analysis was perfect; not because we were only 2 points off; it was the call of extreme variance.  This was shown by the wild swings in momentum common in games where teams are both coming off the bye – made more extreme by the number of players with a question mark.  Goodes was subbed out; Corey hit form again; Pods struggled somewhat after injury the previous round.  Once again the Swans flew out of the blocks and stopped to a walk.  Not sure why.  Accumulator tip was wrong, but good value.


2.  WBD vs BRIS
The Dogs should win
The Lions would be some hope (with Black virtually certain to play, but McGrath probably needing to pass a fitness test) had they not been travelling to a frigid Melbourne twice in 6 days.  Even though they had a nice rest prior to that, the travel will kill off their chances.  The way they fell away late in the game is also a slight negative.
The Dogs’ last win is hard to assess.  “Playing for Charlie Sutton”, they blitzed early but kicked poorly.  Then, late in the game, they had it in their keeping due to Port’s injury toll. 
Then there is the Minson one game suspension.  A la Cats ruck situation above, the Dogs need rookie first gamer Campbell to be competitive and they will win.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: WBD + 18

Current Form: BRIS + 2

Freshness:  WBD + 15

Team Changes:  BRIS + 7

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries: WBD  + 3

Total: Dogs by 33 points and certs*

Accumulator tip: WBD ~ 1.38
* They are the AFL Gauntlet tip.

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 33 points but the Lions won by 58.  Analysis was absolutely dreadful.  Too much emphasis was placed on Brisbane’s back to back Melbourne trips.   Not enough weight was given to:
A. The big Fitzroy / Brisbane event on this weekend in Melbourne/
B. The fact that the back to back Melbourne trips came after the bye, so maybe not such a big deal

C.  The fact that Port had lost players late against the Dogs last week; so possibly the Dogs’ win was not that great; and

D.  The Dogs had a big build-up last week for the Charlie Sutton match.
Also, when the Dogs have been bad this year, they have been really terrible (huge losses to Eagles, Saints, and Swans… and now the Lions).  Therefore, maybe not a good cert to pick at any time!!

BIG SORRY!!!   The Gauntlet is gone


3.  COLL vs WCE
The Pies, probably
Collingwood are brining back 3 players who haven’t played for several weeks.  Reid last played in R8; Shaw and Toovey T9.  This is a bit of a risk.   Another risk is losing Didak (which we all knew about) and Sinclair (a surprise).  They need eventually to achieve stability in order to secure a spot in the top 4.  Before the bye, they were quite patchy against Melbourne.  And Jolly, Swan and Tarrant have all only had one run back from injury layoffs.
But, just when the Eagles see the Pies as vulnerable, they have a few injury worries of their own – the latest being the loss of Schofield.
They also were unimpressive against the travel-weary Blues – was it being first up from the bye? Or did they stuff around with the footy too much last week when they had the game won?
Then there is the possibility of a very wet track to play on.
Would love to avoid the game, but it is 1 vs 3 with a huge bearing on the top 4.  Pies, but variance is extreme and anything could happen.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: COLL + 24

Current Form: COLL + 6

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  COLL + 3

Pyschological:  WCE + 18

Injuries:  COLL + 3

Total:  Pies by 24 points

Accumulator tip: COLL ~  1.42

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 4 points and they won by 6.  Analysis was reasonably okay.  Some wanted to tip the Pies as certs, but the game’s ebbs and flows suggests avoiding the “cert” tag was warranted.  In the end, it is questionable as to whether tipping the Pies in the Accumulator was the correct call.   Fortunately, the Pies fell across the line first.  Tarrant pulled out before the game and Reid will benefit from the run.


4.  FREO vs ESS
The Dons to hit form
Essendon was dreadful in kicking 2:15 before the bye vs Swans but then almost won it.  Their final quarter comeback will be assessed as a small positive.   The ins also helps.  Rick (no right foot) Dyson had to go; Hille should do okay, Hibberd is a plus and Reimers can fill in for the suspended Davey.   Crameri was restricted through injury vs the Swans and should be right now

The Dockers were terrific against the Tigers last weekend, but…..
A. They probably caught Richmond at a good time; and
B. They lose 3 through injury (big toe man, Hill, Dawson) and Ballantyne for the 2nd time this year through suspension.

All this should be enough to get the bombers a rare win in the west

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 24

Current Form: FREO + 2

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  ESS  + 9

Pyschological:  ESS + 2

Injuries:  ESS + 7

Total: Bombers by 10 points

Accumulator tip: ESS ~  1.70

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 10 points and they won by 24.  Analysis was reasonably good.  The Dons were tipped due to the injury toll to Freo and their resultant lack of depth.   However, the Bombers were not tipped as certs due to both teams coming off the bye and the associated risks involved.  This game (again) had some big ebbs and flows.  Hille made an impact and Heppell is a great player under pressure.  The final 2 goals to Essendon late in 3Q may have made all the difference.  They never looked like losing from then on, despite blowing some chances early in 4Q.   None of Freo’s fringe players Crozier, Crichton and Pitt and Neale scored great numbers.


5.  MELB vs GWS
The Dees to win well
This really isn’t a round to tip a cert to win by 100 points; but the Dees are the best certs of the round (although not the Gauntlet tip, for planning reasons). 
Firstly, the risks on Melbourne.  They have only won one game for the year (like their opponents), they a first up from a bye and their injury list is still a bit too lengthy for comfort.
But the positives outweigh the negatives.  The giants have about their worst spate of injuries for the year; and while Palmer may be improve by the run, Patton may find it difficult 2nd up on a wet MCG.  The Dees’ form has been okay of late and Frawley will be better for the run against Collingwood when he was under a fitness cloud.
Giles is in after missing a week with injury, but he is only listed in the 7 man interchange.  This alludes to a possible fitness test.  Take note of who gets on the flight and late Friday news on the final teams if you can.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  MELB + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: MELB + 18

Current Form:  MELB + 4

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes: GWS  + 2

Pyschological:   MELB + 1

Injuries:  MELB + 2

Total: Dees by 41 points and certs of the week

Accumulator tip: MELB ~ 1.30

Post Match Review:  Dees were tipped by 41 points and they won by 78.  Analysis was pretty good in this instance.  The experts were picking the Dees only by 3 – 4 goals.  The Giants were probably made to look better than they were last week by a tired and inaccurate Tigers team.  After the match, Nathan Jones said the Dees had set themselves for a better 2nd half of the year; and several players scored their best scores for the year (Bate, Dunn, Tom McDonald, Swanny Rivers and Colin Sylvia.  This helped boost the score.  It was a strange move to have Luke Power as sub, given that Cornes was rested and many hadn’t played on the MCG.  Maybe they needed the experience more than Power!

Melbourne were, indeed, the certs of the week.


6.  NMFC vs ADEL
The toughest one to pick – Crows
All logic suggests that the Crows should win well – even away from home.  Their recent from is far superior to that of the Roos, despite just falling in against the Saints last weekend.
There are 2 theories which yield different outcomes.  Each is explained below.
Theory 1:  The Crows are flying. 
After a shock loss to Collingwood (when they had been up for a while; or got too carried away with a win over Carlton), they asserted their superiority over Freo.  Then, after the bye, they were too good for the Saints.  Their poor last quarter was either due to the bye or going into their shell.   They will be cherry ripe tis weekend and smash the Roos.

Theory 2:  the Roos are following a type of technical chart which will see them improve rapidly this weekend.  When a half decent team (the Roos barely qualify as such) has a horror run (they easily qualify here – losing to the Dogs in R7, then being overrun by Port in R8, followed by stopping to a walk for an unimpressive win over the Lions in R9 and then copping a 100+ points loss to the Hawks in R10) has a battling, uninspiring win over a bottom side (like they did over the Suns in R12 – the Roos after their bye and the Suns before theirs), they exceed expectations by approx 6 – 10 goals the following week.   That would give them a win by 3 – 7 goals over the Crows.  The pattern fits pretty well, except that the losing streak is only 1 match between wins.  A streak of 3 – 7 games would have matched the charts more precisely

I am torn between the two!!! So, only one thing to do!  Pick the Crows in the tipping and the Roos in the accumulator at ~ 3.10 (good value).  And label this an and EXTREME VRIANCE match.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: NMFC + 18

Current Form: ADEL + 12

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  ADEL + 2

Pyschological:  NMFC + 1 (but this is where the big ? exists)

Injuries:  Even (almost full lists for both)

Total: ADEL by 7 points

Accumulator tip: NMFC ~  3.10

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 7 points but the Roos won by 32.  Analysis was reasonably good, but maybe a bit wimpy!!  The temptation was there to tip the Roos, but I had been burnt earlier in the season by unlikely roughies that never gave a yelp.

This time the Roos fired as per the technical analysis (which suggests a 6 – 10 goal better than expected result.  The Crows were 3 goal favourites and lost by 5 = an 8 goal overachievement by North).  But the Crows were rumoured to have had the flu.  So was it the flu?  Or the technical analysis?  The best part of this analysis was getting the Crows correct as the Accumulator tip (at 3.30, in the end)

Best cert:
Dees (romped in!) , then Dogs* (Dear, or Dear, as Bill Lawry would say!).  Not a week to be excited about certs. (correct)
* Dogs are the AFL Gauntlet tip

Best Outsider Plenty of chances here, but best is the Cats (almost did it!), followed by the Roos (won well)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): A tough week to pick, but Dogs by over 21 points (refer to Bill Lawry above – better option would have been the Dees)

Happy tipping!  The favourites look a bit shakier than last weekend, and expect 1 or more upsets! (there were 2, in fact)