Round 13, 2013
Scores after round 12 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 6 (perfect for the first time, but it wasn’t hard to do) plus bonus score of 2 = 8 for a score of 78 (76 real winners +2) and improved from 22,400 to 18,482 out of 66,473 tipsters
Accumulator: 5.96 (okay) and improved from 3,813 to 3,764 out of 11,796 tipsters
Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Dockers won)
NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp have a change this week. From R13 onwards, as long as one is alive, they have to pick the “line”. EG the line for the Hawks (vs Eagles) this week is -32.5 points. So if you pick the Hawks in the LMS comp this week, they will need to win by more than 32 points for you to stay in the comp. If not, those who picked the Eagles stay in the comp (even if they don’t win the game, so long as they lose by 32 points or less). The other lines are:
Swans -36.5
Saints -40.5
Tigers -34.5
Dockers -22.5
Cats -32.5
These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection.
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly– streak now up to 7 (with Dockers & Dons winning easily)
50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 correct for the round
Right: Dons won by more than 36 points of Cats
Wrong: Dockers failed to win by over 50 points over the Lions
so now at 12 out of 25 = 48% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Early thoughts for R13: For those in the Herald Sun tipping comp (where one gets a bones for picking all 6 winners this week), the sensible thing to do is to go for the six clear favourites – Hawks, Swans, Saints, Dogs, Dockers and Cats – and so maximise the chances of the 2 bonus points for the round. In the 9 game rounds, it is usually not a big deal – with tough games to pick and the 3 extra games making an “all favourites” weekend unlikely.
For those who are well off the pace in the HS comp and needing a miracle, you could consider going foe one outsider and the 5 favourites. This would, if successful, put you 3 closer to the lead (and totally blow you out of the water if all 6 favourites win). The likelihood of all 6 favourites winning is approx 60 – 65%. The likelihood of you picking the correct outsider and tipping all 6 correct is approx 10%.
The best cert of the week looks to be Freo, who play at home for the 2nd week in a row (luxury). For those after an upset, the Dogs may be the best chance.
Apologies for lack of table format
Round 13, 2013
Games Tip / By Variance Outsider is:
1 HAW V WCE HAW 38 EXTREME a fluky chance only
2 PORT V SYD SYD 29 EXTREME a fluky chance only
3 STK V MELB STK 34 EXTREME some chance
4 WBD V RICH RICH 11 EXTREME a HUGE chance
5 FREO V NMFC FREO 45 HIGH no hope at all
6 BRIS V GEEL GEEL 30 HIGH a tiny chance
Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend
Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark
High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark
Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions
1 HAW V WCE
The Hawks almost certs
The Hawks really should win this one, but they will not be named as total certs. The reason for not naming them as certs is:
A. They played on Friday night first up after the bye and were a bit scratchy. Normally this would lead to an out-performance the next week (which may, indeed, happen), but there is also the feeling that they may enjoy the weekend off and not be 100% for this one
B. The Eagles barely got over the line vs Saints before the bye and may be now ready to hit form. Occasionally a struggling win like this leads to a 6 – 8 goal overachievement the following week. The pattern is not really the one that yields this result, but there is just enough of a hint to hold back on calling the Hawks certs.
The Eagles do get a plethora of talent back all at once. The 6 changes are probably too many and whether they can all fire is doubtful.
The variance is EXTREME and a huge Hawks win would not surprise either.
Maths (in points)
Ability: HAW + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: HAW + 24
Current Form: HAW + 5
Team Changes: WCE + 8
Psychological: HAW + 5
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: EVEN
Total: Hawks by 38 points
Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.16 (the ~5.30 for the Eagles is almost tempting)
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 38 points and they won by 20. Analysis was reasonable; not sure of the EXTREME variance call – nothing in the game trend suggested extreme variance. There were plenty of players with injuries to various extents on the night. At least no damage was done in terms of tips..
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2 PORT V SYD
The Swans, but not quite certs
The Swans are flying lately and now get to play Tippett. With Jetta still not back, they are likely to go for a standard method of attack rather than the slingshot one (with Jetta on jets streaming towards goal and waiting for the kick over the top). It will be interesting to see how it goes and how long before the Tippett inclusion is “normal” for the players.
The Swans were also almost tipped as certs. One thing in their favour is that Port broke their runs of losses with a convincing win (albeit against the Giants). This often leads to a downer the next week.
But the negatives for the Swans is that they are coming off the bye and the Tippett thing may prove to take some getting used to for a while. It may also be true that the Swans are being slightly overestimated based on the huge win over the Crows before the bye.
The loss of Boak is a huge blow to Port. Cassisi coming in (hopefully fit) helps and Pittard returns after a long break. The coach has talked them up after their previous win. This was a bit surprising – usually the coach likes being underrated!!
EXTREME VARIANCE!!!
Here is what Tommy Steele may have said about the Swans:
In twenty-thirteen there was a red and white team
No-one took much notice of the red and white team
(red and white team)
Scribes just wrote off the red and white team
From that northern state
Said that they were just making up the
Numbers in the eight
When we asked the journos if the red and white team
(red and white team)
Had a chance of going back to back
They said to us, “They’re a reasonable team
They’re a genuine team
A competitive team
But don’t tell us this team will
Go back to back!”
But this did not satisfy the red and white team
(red and white team)
So they started working on a red and white scheme
(red and white scheme)
They went out and got a recruit and this bloke was called Tippett
At his feet were quick forward flankers who could run like whippets
Half way through the season, then, the red and white team
(red and white team)
Found some really top form on the track
And people said, “You’re a good little team,
With Tippett in your team
You’re better than you seem
Any maybe it’s no bull that you’ll
Go back to back
It was the month of the finals
All the top teams were there
Waiting to see which team would win the cup
Craig Willis did the voice work, in his usual style
Doing his level best to talk it up
Inside the eight were the teams people raved about
All their supporters yelled out with a mighty shout
Hawks and Cats; and Fremantle; and Collingwood
And who do you think as well?
Also in the finals was the red and white team
(red and white team)
Way under the radar was the red and white team
(red and white team)
Sitting up there in the top four and really on the ball
Still the newspapers didn’t think that they could win it all
An unbiased Paul Roos watched the red and white team
(red and white team)
Liked their slingshot method of attack
Then Paul Roos said, “You’re a great little team,
You’re a flag-winning team,
You’re my little team;
I’ll tip you as the team that can
Go back to back!”
Maths (in points)
Ability: SYD + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: PORT + 15
Current Form: SYD + 14
Team Changes: SYD + 1
Psychological: SYD + 14
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: PORT + 3
Total: Swans by 29 points
Accumulator tip: SYD ~1.10 (but PORT ~ 7.50 is tempting!).
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 29 points but Port won by 18. Analysis was just fair; would have been good had the temptation been taken in selecting Port in the Accumulator (would have made the Accumulator tipping week fantastic – as it was, it was horrible). The Swans, coming off the bye, were ordinary after QT. Port managed to exceed expectations again after breaking a long losing streak last week. The were expected to dip, but maybe the bye in R11 or the fact that the big win was not “rated” because the opponents were the Giants. The extreme variance call was correct. .
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3 STK V MELB
The Saints most likely, but leave it alone if you can.
This is NOT the game to pick a cert, especially in the LMS comp mentioned at the top of this page!!
The Dees, just in case you missed the news, sacked Mark Neeld on Monday. The best chance for a win is the next 2 weeks vs Saints and Dogs (they play the Giants in Sydney R19). The theory is that a team wins the week after sacking a coach. It is somewhat over-rated.
Then there is also the omission if Milne. We will focus here only on how the team will play in the first match after the Milne news broke. There are a few players who were around in the 2004 period (the relevant year in the legal case). These players may be differently affected to the newer players.
These two events make this game an extreme variance game. My guess is that either event would cause the teams to be either as flat as compact disks, or up higher than a Nic Nat hanger. We await the result; but it is likely that the game trend will be established very early – maybe the leader at midway through the first quarter would win it.
Apart from the stated team changes, the interesting things to note are:
A. Still no Lenny Hayes
B. Still no Wright (actually played in the VFL)
C. New boy Clisby gets a promotion from the rookie list, while Magner is an emergency!!
D. Frawley still not back
E. Dawes selected to play but may be a risk
F. Riewoldt and Dal Santo both 250th and Dempster 150th (some at Sydney)
Expect the EXTREMEST of VARIANCE for this game, as indicated above.
Maths (in points)
Ability: STK + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: STK + 11
Team Changes: STK + 3
Psychological: MELB + 5 (but who knows?)
Freshness: STK + 6
Injuries: STK + 1
Total: Saints by 34 points
Accumulator tip: MELB ~ 6.50.
Post Match Review: Saints were tipped by 34 points and they won by 35. Analysis was not as good as it looked. Maybe the likelihood of a big Saints downer was overrated. It actually appeared that both teams were reasonably tuned in. Had the variance call been more subdued, then the Saints would have been tipped in the Accumulator. The loss of Big Boy McEvoy hurt the Saints.
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4 WBD V RICH
The Tigers, but a risky pick this week
The Dogs are the best outsiders of the week, in a round dominated by hot favourites.
From AFL.com.au, Brendan McCartney said the memory of the 67-point belting in April was still fresh in the players’ minds. “They remember the start where they got us, how non-thinking we were around the ball and how they were able to play the way they wanted…”
So it looks like the Dogs are going to be up for this game. The slow start vs Richmond in R3 was replicated last week against Collingwood. While Michael Jackson would have blamed it on the Boogie, maybe the bye had more to do with it.
Both teams had the bye in R11. In general terms, those teams that outperformed expectations coming off the bye tend to under-perform the following week – and vice-versa. The Tigers were 17 points above expectations and the Dogs were right on; so this would suggest the Tigers would under-perform this week. This is only a huge problem if they under-perform by 6 or more goals, because of their hot favourite status.
The most likely outcome would therefore be an unimpressive win to Richmond. Many expected that they may have a downer following the huge win over the Eagles. But they managed to butter up well against the Crows the following game (with a bye in between). Maybe the Crows were flat and in need of a holiday?
Maths (in points)
Ability: RICH + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: RICH + 8
Team Changes: RICH + 1
Psychological: WBD + 7
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: WBD + 3
Total: Tigers by 11 points
Accumulator tip: WBD ~ 5.75.
Post Match Review: Tigers were tipped by 11 points and they won by 60. Analysis was way off here and the Tigers continue to exceed expectations and look to have crossed the threshold into the “genuine finalists” category. Maybe the confidence in the Dogs was overblown – especially in view of the EXTREME variance tag. And maybe some teams are refining their form coming off the bye and, therefore, the variance swings may be less this year. But next week’s results will determine the trend.
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5 FREO V NMFC
The Dockers are the certs of the round
The big plus for the Dockers is that they have had a bye, then a home game vs the Lions and then another home game vs the Roos. This should have them primed to excel this week.
Further, the fact that the Roos could’ve almost nearly beaten the Eagles in Perth recently will ensure that there is no chance of the Dockers underestimating them.
The fact that the Dockers underachieved last week first up after the bye increases the likelihood of them doing extra well this week. But there may be some doubt on Ballantyne who went off injured / sore last week.
If you have to just pick a winner, this is it!! McMahon is a significant loss for the Roos.
Maths (in points)
Ability: FREO + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: FREO + 21
Current Form: FREO + 1
Team Changes: FREO + 2
Psychological: FREO + 5
Freshness: FREO + 6
Injuries: NMFC + 2
Total: Dockers by 45 points
Accumulator tip: FREO ~ 1.28.
Post Match Review: Dockers were tipped by 45 points and they won by 38. Analysis was just about perfect and the Dockers were correctly named as the certs of the week. The late withdrawals of Mundy and Cunnington evened things out. Ballantyne failed to star – refer note above on him. The early rain may have somewhat quelled the final margin..
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6 BRIS V GEEL
The Cats to do it again
The Lions look a lot better now and have been gradually feeding some of their better players back in. Brown and Merrett in this week follows Golby, Rich, Leuenberger and Rockliff returning last week.
This should be enough to make them competitive this week.
One would think that the Cats would not drop this game prior to key matches against the Dockers and Hawks. Of course, they are coming off the bye, whereas the Lions are returning from Perth on an 8 day break.
Expect the Lions to maybe struggle a bit this week after being highly competitive for most of the game last week and then dropping off late.
Jimmy Bartel was supposed to be resting this week after flying to the US during the break. But he has been named in the 18. The Cats also welcome back rested players, plus Motlop back from injury.
Cats almost certs but not quite
Maths (in points)
Ability: GEEL + 30 POINTS
Home Ground: BRIS + 15
Current Form: GEEL + 8
Team Changes: EVEN
Psychological: GEEL + 13
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: BRIS + 6
Total: Cats by 30 points
Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.14.
Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 30 points but the Lions won by 5. Analysis was ordinary. It probably should have been labelled as an extreme variance match. What an amazing comeback by the Lions – from 52 points down in 3Q. Their 3 “ins” of Brown, Merrett and Moloney all excelled, while the Cats; “ins” were less prominent (Motlop and Taylor Hunt especially). Probably the Cats put the queue in the rack too early. That, combined with a determined effort from the Lions, was enough to conure up a miracle win. Of interest was that the winning goal was kicked after the siren by Ash McGrath in his 200th game and that new club games record-holder Simon Black also starred..
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Best cert: Dockers (and Dockers by more than 22 points in LMS – see top of page) (never in doubt)
Best Outsider: Dogs (never a hope), maybe Dees (who knows) (never a hope)
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Dockers to win by more than 25 points (correct)
Dogs to win or lose by less than 32 points (never a hope)
Happy tipping! The week looks easy, but the 6 favourites won’t necessarily win (so true this week). Some tough matches coming up when the byes finish!