Round 14, 2013

Round 14, 2013

Warning!!  Danger Will (& Mitch) Robinson!!  Round 14 starts at 8:10PM (pr 6:10PM Perth time) on THURSDAY, 27 June 2013.  Remember to get your tips in early.  You will (probably) have the luxury of 90 minutes after the teams are named on Thursday night in which to submit your tips.  This website will have the full preview on line before 6.00AM on Thursday. Any changes to those tips AFTER the teams are announced on Thursday will be added as a brief comment below in purple. STOP PRESS: with Luke Shuey out as a late withdrawal (replaced by Schofield), the tip will be changed to Essendon!!!  Essendon are now the favourite and, for those who have not tipped yet, WCE in the Accumulator at 2.20 is worth a thought.  So both the outright tip and Accumulator is changed in this game.

Scores after round 13 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp

Tips correct: 4 (like almost everybody) for a score of 82 (78 real winners +2 bonus points) and improved from 18,842 to 17,739 out of 66,510 tipsters

Accumulator: 2.47 (really awful!!! – so regret resisting the temptation to select Port!) for a total of 94.76 and dropped back from 3,764 to 4,303 out of 11,796 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Dockers won by over 22 points – actually was able to change to 20 points because the margin changed on Friday; a tip for new players)
NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 1 of 1 cert correctly– streak now up to 10 (with Dockers winning easily).  Streak previous incorrectly listed as 7.  This was a GOOD WEEK to be conservative as 2 HOT favourites in the Swans and Cats were rolled!!

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 correct for the round
Wrong:  The Dogs never got close to Richmond
Right:  The Dockers won by over 25 points
so now at 13 out of 27 = 48% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)


Early thoughts for R14:  The Roos and Hawks look to be the obvious certs, but no surprise there.  The Swans and Cats are fancied to bounce back this week, while the Suns still seem to be underrated and are likely to be selected outright – even though the Crows are slight favourites at this stage.  The Suns are the possible Last Man Standing tip. 

The Eagles / Dons game is a tough one to pick with so many doubts on fitness for both teams.  It will be important to watch the injury news on them this week, especially as the Eagles are coming off a 6 day break.

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 14, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 WCE V ESS………. ESS 2…… EXTREME   (now WCE) a big chance

2 SYD V CARL        SYD 21          HIGH             some chance

3 SUNS V ADEL      SUNS 27        HIGH             tipped to win

4 PORT V COLL    COLL 8 now 2 EXTREME HUGE chance

5 GEEL V FREO     GEEL 24       HIGH             a small chance

6 MELB V WBD      WBD 30         EXTREME   a tiny chance

7 HAW V BRIS        HAW 50        HIGH             no hope

8 NMFC V GWS     NMFC 66      HIGH             no hope

9 RICH V STK         RICH 37        HIGH             no hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

The Eagles… maybe

Even though this is the only game being written up with the full knowledge of team selections, it needs the most explanation.  The Eagles played on Friday night and have a 6 day break to a Thursday night game.  But they had the bye the week before, so shouldn’t be too stressed.
Jamie Cripps would have been a chance to come in, but was suspended in the WAFL last week.  Josh Hill is still out injured.  Will Schofield (2 ordinary games back in the WAFL after injury) is an emergency.

Simon Turnbridge was elevated to the main list after Shannon Hurn was added to it. He is 20 and listed as 191cm and 92kg.  The Eagles website describes him as a “tough as teak utility”. Expect him to be the sub.  His form in the WAFL has been patchy and played WAFL reserves in WAFL R5.  Ashley Smith didn’t play last week in AFL or WAFL as he was the emergency. 
Hutchings and Sheppard both played okay in the WAFL on Saturday.  Shuey had an arm problem last Friday vs the Hawks, but is apparently okay now.

The Eagles are somewhat stretched in terms of players right now, but have a significant home ground advantage.

Now we go to the Bombers.  What a great win by them in Perth vs Dockers in R3, coming from 6 goals down at half time.  And the Eagles home record isn’t great this year – although they stole a win over North recently.  Their injury list is relatively short, but the surprise non-inclusion is Fletcher.  Jetta is also not yet back; while Heppell and Hurley (both getting scans after the R12 game) appear ok.

The shock and horror at Joe Daniher getting dropped is overplayed.  It is exactly the correct decision to bring in Bellchambers.  Dempsey is playing after the lung issue forced him to miss the plane back from Sydney in R10.

What a horror game this is to pick a winner in.  The variance is EXTREME.  Last weekend, there were 4 cases where a team that had a bye in R11 played a team coming off the R12 bye.  The teams coming off the bye all performed worse than expected (Swans – upset loss to Port; Roos – lost to the Dockers by quite a bit; Cats – blew a huge lead to conjure up an upset loss to the Lions) – all except the Eagles.  They were expected to lose to the Hawks by 30 points and lost by 20 after a brave, but unlikely, 4Q comeback.

Using this logic, the Eagles should be favoured to win; but the confidence would have been more had they underperformed against Hawthorn (from a technical analysis standpoint).

Form-wise, there is a sense that the battling win over the Saints might have been a “turn the corner” type win.  And, from that viewpoint, the strong effort vs Hawks might be a positive sign

The Dons could’ve / should’ve really belted the injured Suns in R12.  They won by a fair margin but failed to put the pedal to the metal.  Unimpressive, or just looking for a rest?

Avoid this game if you can. 

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground:  WCE + 21

Current Form:   ESS + 2

Team Changes:  ESS + 15

Psychological:    WCE + 5

Freshness:    ESS + 6

Injuries:     ESS + 5

Total:     ESS by 2 points
Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 2.2 (narrowly the tip)
Post match review: Dons were tipped by 2 points and they won by 7. (Originally, it was the Eagles tipped and the Dons in the Accumulator, but on Thursday Luke Shuey pulled out; the market swung around to the Dons as favourites and so both tips changed). Apologies to anyone who picked a wrong selectiona s a result.  Analysis was pretty good.  The Shuey omission was BIG.  He copped a bit of a shoulder injury in R13, so the hammie must have been a midweek problem.  The Eagles already had both Selwoods out and also lost Embley.  So they went in undermanned around the middle.  However, inclusions Smith and Hutchings did extremely well.  Had they failed, the Eagles may have been blown away.  There was also doubts on how the Bombers would be after the bye.  Some clangers led to Eagles goals, but they found touch late in the game.  The EXTREME variance call was justified in view of the fact that the Eagles went from 17 points down to 23 up and then lost the game (even though the Q by Q scores don’t totally show it).



The Swans probably

The theory goes that the team that significantly underperforms the first week after the bye will then blitz in the following week.  If that is so, then the Blues have no hope.  And, or course, if Carlton are slightly below their best after the bye, then it’s curtains for the Blues also.

But the problem for Sydney is that their injury list just keeps growing.  Their injury quotient stands now at 21 compared to 9 for the Blues.  This, then, gives Carlton some hope.  Amazingly, Carlton has only twice been more than 20 points outside the experts predictions this season.  Their variance chart reads -12       -1      -4 43 19      -4 -32              1        -3      10      -4      11.   The +43 was the upset win in the west over WCE, while the -32 was the unexpected loss to St Kilda.  They are going to need a +21 to win this time.

The concern about the Swans’ depth currently (plus how Tippett will go 2nd up – often hard for those long out of the game to back up in week 2) will mean this tip will not be labelled as a cert.  And they have a 6 day break from a wintry Adelaide.

Weather: possible shower

Expected significant changes:
SYD: Goodes is definitely out.  No return of LRT, Shaw, Mumford, Jetta or Reid.  Everitt is a slim chance to return but considered unlikely

CARL: Carrazzo is expected to return.  Obviously, Murphy is an out.  Robinson missed training early this week, but is expected to play. Carrazzo still not back!! But Yarran back.  No great change to tip

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  SYD + 15

Current Form:   SYD + 2

Team Changes:  CARL + 4

Psychological:    SYD + 12

Freshness:    CARL + 3

Injuries:     CARL + 13

Total:     Swans by 21 points No great change to tip
Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.33 (but Blues at ~3.30 is tempting).
Post match review: Swans were tipped by 21 points and they won by 22. Sounds almost perfect; but the sloppy conditions made it more like a 6 – 8 goal win.  The bounce-back from a poor game straight after a bye was underestimated.  The good news is that the right tip was also made in the Accumulator.  Tippett did surprisingly well for his 2nd game back.  The killer blow for Carlton was Garlett, Yarran (rushed back into the seniors too early?) and Betts all struggling.  One caller suggested that they may be better in the dry.





The Suns!! (still underrated)

The Crows are still getting credit for their 2012 form and are waaaay under that level in 2013. 

The logic for tipping the Suns is quite simple.  They are now about equal to the Crows in ability, have the home ground advantage and their recent form is better.  They played 3 Melbourne game sin 4 weeks recently and held up very well.

The only problem which may arise is the injury situation and the possibility of unsettling the side with multiple changes.

The Crows list is much shorter and they would be “smarting” after losing their last 3 before the bye.  They could’ve lost 4, but stole a win over the Roos (as others have done in 2013).  But this same theory didn’t help the Roos last week.

The only reason that the Crows are favoured to win this thing is that they have thrashed the Suns every time they have played them.  But that is old news and the Suns are better now.

Weather: Showers and humidity 75%.  The higher the humidity, the better the Gold Coast will like it.

Expected significant changes:
SUNS: Tough selection week.  Out goes Lynch + Rischitelli, while Wilkinson and Murphy had ankle issues vs the Bombers but are some small chance to be out.  Lonergan and Matera are still out.  Bennell, Dixon, Hunt, May, Warnock and Brennan are all chances to return but some may return via the NEAFL. No Bennell, Dixon, Brennan, Warnock, but May, Broughton, Weller, Hunt and new bot Boston come in.  No great change to tip
ADEL: Nothing to note

Maths (in points)

Ability: ADEL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  SUNS +15

Current Form:   SUNS + 7

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    SUNS + 9

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     SUNS + 2

Total:     Suns by 27 points No great change to tip
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 2.18.
Post match review: Suns were tipped by 27 points but the Crows won by 28.  OUCH!!! This ruined a good weekend of analysis.  The Suns were very poor.  The risk on the Suns was that both team were both teams were coming off the bye (and so EXTRMEME VARIANCE was maybe the right call); and the Suns, like the bottom of the rung teams, always had the chance of putting in a shocker.  Brad Crouch was great coming in this week.  Compare that to Karmichael Hunt (who had several weeks in the NEAFL prior to coming in) was ordinary.  The coach complained about lack of froward pressure and midfield spread.  The talk from the Crows that they were going to be UP this week was correct, but ignored.  Let’s say it again:  OUCH





The Pies maybe

Port had a huge upset win over the Swans last week.  The Sydney guys admitted that they were down on many KPIs.  Actually, nobody took any notice of Port’s big win over the Giants – except Hinkley.  He was talking it up (as if to warn the Swans to be on their game).  All the experts assumed that Port was still in a losing streak – which was punctuated by a game against the Giants.  This was yet another case where the team 2nd up after a bye played a team 1st up and excelled.  Now Port (3rd up) plays the Pies (1st up) and this game can be viewed 2 ways:

A. Port had the advantage last week and will be flat this week.  And any thought of the Pies taking Port easy have now been removed.  The nagging doubt still remains about the quality of Port.  Collingwood travels well.

B.  The Pies will need a game to get back into the swing of things and Port is back to its early season good from.

To add to theory B’s case, the Pies have a dangerously high injury toll (worse than Sydney’s was last week).  With Collingwood the superior team by a margin, this is all going to add up to a wimp’s tip.  The Pies will be tipped, but Port in the Accumulator.  “A” and “B” above make it an EXTREME VARIANCE game.

Weather: possible shower

Expected significant changes:
PORT: Boak is desperate to come back in; and John Butcher may be a chance to return from illness.  Hitchcock and Paul Stewart are chances to return. Trengove back, but he was expected to play in the SANFL.  Boak back!

PIES: The coach said Ball will return (how appropriate when Wimbledon is on).  He also noted that Cloke, who had a minor finger op during the bye, would play {yes, but in top form?}.  Defenders Nathan Brown and Ben Reid were both sent for scans after the Dogs’ game.  Beams, Young, Goldsack and Johnson are still out, while Krakouer may need another VFL game and had a bandage on his knee (not a banjo). Reid is out (you were warned!), but also Jolly is injured (unexpected).  This will decrease the Pies winning margin

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 12

Current Form:   COLL + 4

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    PORT + 6

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     PORT + 2

Total:     Pies by 8 points Pies now by 2 points and Port a HUGE chance
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 3.30.
Post match review: Pies were tipped by 2 points but Port won by 35. Analysis was almost wonderful.  The Accumulator tip was great; but the outright tip may have almost been Port.  This is very rare for such a big outsider.  It appears that the Pies were flat coming off the bye (expect them to improve next week).  Port, on the other hand, now have some credibility.  They have played the Swans coming off a bye and then the Pies coming off a bye. Jolly out was a big loss and Swans was ordinary.  Option B above could have been given a bit more weight.





The Cats to atone

There were 2 upsets in last year’s finals series.  One was the Grand Final; and the Hawks made short work of the Swans early in the rematch (sadly for the Hawk fans, only 4 premiership points were attained for the win).  The other one was a bigger upset when the Dockers knocked off the Cats in Melbourne (Hawk fans quietly cheered while openly assuring everyone they had the Cats’ measure).

Anyway, the likelihood is that the Cats will exact revenge this week over the Dockers.

The shock loss by Geelong last week after being 52 points up can be put down to a team 1st up after the bye putting the cue in the rack too early.  The Cats also followed a well trodden path of a top team playing a series of “pencil this one in as a win” type matches.  Since the loss to Collingwood, they played Port, Suns, Giants then the bye.  No win was super impressive, except for patches here and there.  Then they were well in front and tailed off towards the end of a match – eventually losing it.  The typical thing that occurs the following week is that doubts exist about the team (as is the case now).  But they generally come out and dominate the next week.

The best recent example of this is the Pies in 2010.  They were on 9 wins straight, with the 9th an unimpressive “fall over the line” job vs the Crows.  Next week, they were overrun late by Hawthorn.  The following week was F1 and they were expected the beat the Dogs by 4 goals.  They were 32 points up at half time and pulled away to win by 62.  If anything, the 2nd half display is usually more dominant.

The Cats will be therefore tipped in both the normal and the Accumulator.  Did you see the end of the Freo / North game?  A cat wandered on to the ground just before the final siren.  Hmmmmmm!

A slight positive for the Dockers may be that they are 3rd up vs Geelong 2nd up.  And they also played their last 2 games at Subiaco, so they won’t be travel-weary.

Expected significant changes:
CATS: Johnson is out suspended; Caddy appears likely to return, while Vardy and West may return but are “tests”

FREO: Stephen Hill trained well on 26 Jun and appears okay.  Barlow starred last week but had a jaw op this week and is doubtful; neither he nor Mundy (late withdrawal last week) did much at training on 26 Jun.  Sandilands and Pavlich are still at least a week away. Barlow out and Mundy still not in

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  GEEL + 21

Current Form:   FREO + 5

Team Changes:  FREO + 3

Psychological:    GEEL + 6

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     FREO + 1

Total:     Cats by 24 points No great change to tip, but feeling more confident on the Cats to win
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.55.
Post match review: Cats were tipped by 24 points and they won by 41. Analysis was good, but should have been better.  The technical analysis was very clear and the Cats should have been tipped by more AND they should have been the Last Man Standing tip (to win by more than 15 points).  Apart from the, the analysis was excellent.  The talk that the Cats might get panicky in a tight finish was an overreaction to the Cats’ slow down loss last week.  As per the GENERAL TREND of the technical analysis (but not in the example of Collingwood given in the preview), the Cats’ 2nd half (+31) was greater than the 1st half (+10).  The Dockers weren’t helped by losing Duffield to injury and Spurr to illness prior to the game.





The Dogs should do it

Get down to the MCG early and see the best women on the planet play Aussie rules!

One should always be careful of getting too excited about the winning chances of lowly teams.  So this lesson from history will prevent the Dogs from being tipped as certs.  They are almost certs, but not certs.  The conservative line worked last week with thousands bombing out their run of certs on the Swans and / or Cats.

The Dogs were extremely disappointing last week after playing half a good game vs Collingwood the week earlier.  They appeared to be turning the corner prior to the bye, but have lost traction since.

The Dees had a respectable loss last weekend (their form didn’t make the front page).  The concern is that the players were able to relax and then can (feel free to) put in a shocker this weekend.

Given the fact that almost everyone will pick the Dogs, there is little need to panic if you select the Dogs and the Dees win.  But the game is still one to avoid if you can.  The variance is EXTREME!!

Expected significant changes:
DEES: Spencer departs due to suspension.  Given that Jamar is gone for a month, Gawn is the likely replacement. Frawley is likely to return, while McKenzie may need another week.  Dawes was injured last week, but is probably going to play.

DOGS: Stevens is a “test”, but likely to return.  Jones was stepped on last week and had a sore ankle, but is expected to play.  Dickson starred in the VFL last week and is a likely inclusion.  Goodes is unlikely to overcome a wrist injury. Stevens not yet back and Goodes confirmed injured.  No great change to tip

Maths (in points)

Ability: WBD + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  MELB + 3

Current Form:   WBD + 10

Team Changes:  MELB + 1

Psychological:    WBD + 6

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     WBD + 6

Total:     Dogs by 30 points No great change to tip
Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 1.18
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 30 points but the Dees won by 3. Analysis was fair.  “Fair” because the Dogs were not tipped as certs and virtually everyone else would have marked them as BIG certs. But it is never good to get both tips wrong. As mentioned above, few would have tipped the Dees anyway.  Maybe the benefit of the coach’s departure was “felt” a week later than normal.  Perhaps the Dogs took it for granted that they would win.  The Dees’ ins of Frawley and Gawn were very good; and the Dogs’ ins of Cordy, Dickson and Wallis were so-so. Watts was way above expectations.  The Dees also won the women’s footy match 53 to 21 with Daisy Pearce being BOG.s fair




7 HAW V BRIS (in Tassie)

The Hawks are certs

The teams which win with a kick after the siren generally underperform the following week.  In the case of Brisbane, they need to outperform expectations by at least 7 goals to win.  That isn’t going to happen.  The more likely scenario is a huge Hawks victory.

But before everyone jumps onto the Hawks in the Last man standing to win by heaps, there are one or two minor issues for the Hawks.  The have a 9 day break since the hard fought win over the Eagles.  That is one day too long, perhaps.  And the Lions game is sandwiched between the Eagles and Cats games.  So it is possible that they may be in cruise control mode (a la Cats last week) and record a comfortable, but not large, victory.

The Hawks are certs, but not sure about the extent of the margin.  Maybe a bigger win is slightly more likely than a smaller one.

Expected significant changes:
HAWKS: Birchall is out, while Gibson and Bruest had minor issues last week, but are expected to play.  Smith is a likely inclusion, with Puopolo a “test” Both Bailey and Guerra join Birchall on the injury list No great change to tip

LIONS: Expect little change, but Maguire and Martin must be getting closer.  Mayes was subbed out early last week and may have a small injury.

Forecast:  Mostly sunny, some chance of rain

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 36 POINTS

Home Ground:  HAW + 15

Current Form:   HAW + 5

Team Changes:  BRIS + 2

Psychological:    HAW + 6

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:     BRIS + 10

Total:     Hawks by 50 points No great change to tip; maybe Hawks by 42
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.05.
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 50 (then 42) points and they won by 58. Analysis was okay; both tips correct and the CERT call was correct. Anyway, the Lions underperformed as per the technical guide above.
The Hawks were never really challenged and won like you want a cert to win.





The Roos are certs of the week

The Giants REALLY needed the rest last weekend.  As a guide to how they will come out of the break – last year they almost beat the Tigers (who were on a slowdown course into the break) at home.  Last year the Suns came off the break and were totally flogged by the Eagles in Perth.  The latter is probably closer to what to expect this weekend.  But it is a little unclear.

The Giants’ form really stinks at present.  They need to find something.  The Roos will be keen to get back on the winners’ list even though their season is totally shot.

As far as a win goes, the Roos are the certs of the week.  But to win by over 73 points….?

Expected significant changes:
ROOS: Ziebell is expected back after his suspension + McMahon (a test) and maybe Cunnington who missed last week for personal reasons.  Lindsay Thomas may be in some doubt after his hammie was in ice last week after being subbed off. No McMahon and Cunnington; Tarrant was expected to play one more VFL game – he is on the 7 man bench. Thomas named but not sure he will play.

GIANTS: Brogan, Palmer (Rhys, not Clive) and Tyson (Dom, not Frank) are all some chance to return. Still no Brogan, Palmer, Tyson.  Gilham is in and O’hAilpin on the bench.  Coniglio surprisingly dropped!!

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:  NMFC + 18

Current Form:   NMFC + 20

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:     GWS + 2

Total:     Roos by 66 points and certs of the week!! No great change to tip
Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.01.
Post match review: Dogs were tipped by 50 (then 42) points and they won by 58. Analysis was fair.  the experts had the Roos by 75 points and they eventually covered that margin.  Maybe the team news should have pushed the margin expectation out further.  Losing Jeremy Cameron to a virus didn’t help the Giants.  The Roos were correctly named as certs of the week.





The Tigers to roll on

The Tigers look to have now gone past the “shocker of a loss when you least expect it” phase.  If so, they should roll over the Saints without much trouble.   Their good form comes from a lot of improvement from the “lesser” players (IE not the main 3 or 4 stars).
Those who are above 2012 stats are Ellis, Houli, Jackson and Vickery.

The Saints were probably cruising to a greater win when McEvoy went down in 2Q last week.  But, then again, Simpkin slowed Dawes down as well.

The fact that the Tigers kept going to the line late last week was a positive sign.  Expect the Tigers to win well again.  They will be “just” declared as certs – to make it a clean sweep of certs for Sunday.  But they are the riskiest of the three!

Expected significant changes:
TIGERS: Chaplin in unlikely after injuring a knee last week.  Deledio had a minor knock and should be fine, while Vlastuin and Astbury may be in doubt. Maric out injured + Astbury

SAINTS: Simpkin goes out suspended.  McEvoy was subbed out with concussion last week, but should be okay, while Hayes and Wright may return.  Nothing is known about Hickey, who seems to have disappeared off the face of the earth recently. Still no Hickey (in VFL side) so it is assumed that McEvoy is fine

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: RICH + 3

Current Form:   RICH + 14

Team Changes:  STK + 3

Psychological:    RICH + 6

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:     RICH + 5

Total:     Tigers by 37 points and (just) certs No great change to tip
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.20.
Post match review: Tigers were tipped by 37 points and they won by 64. Analysis was reasonable good.  the tigers’ depth and resilience seems much better now.






Best cert: Roos, then Hawks and Tigers (waiting patiently until Sunday) (all won like certs)

Apologies  The Last Man Standing Lines are:

Essendon favourites by: 6 1/2 points
Sydney 18 1/2 
Adelaide 8 1/2
Collingwood 17 1/2
Geelong 15 1/2
Dogs 30 1/2
Hawthorn 44 1/2
North 77 1/2
Richmond 30 1/2

Best Outsider: Suns are clearly the pick of the outsiders this week. (they were very ordinary)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Suns to win or lose by less than 4 points
(wrong, and this was the Last Man Standing tip)
Geelong to win by over 15 points
(always looked safe and this SHOULD HAVE been the Last Man Standing tip!!)

Happy tipping!  It’s great to have a full 9 games again.  The trickiest games are early this weekend!