Round 14




Data to be added Thursday 28 June, 2012

Round 14, 2012

Scores after round 13 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 4 and cumulative: 81 winners (including bonus 2 points) and improved from 12,665 to 9,663 out of 72,775 tipsters Streak:  tipped 1 of 2 certs correctly. 
I must not tip the Dogs
I must not tip the Dogs…
The streak is now back at 1.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Dogs deplorable), so now at 8 out of 13 = 62% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

AFL Tipping Gauntlet result: incorrect (Dogs)  Wiped out (SORRY)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  7.52 points for the round and improved from 492 to 295 out of 11,850 tipsters

Early thoughts for R14: Early thoughts for R14:  There appears to be 9 clear winners at first glance.  But the Hawks vs Blues is a risk as both teams are returning from the bye.  The Saints are also back from the bye and are no certs to beat the Roos.

The absolute certs appear to be Cats, Swans, Eagles, Pies and Dons

See game grid at bottom with tips


Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

1  CARL vs HAW
The Hawks are tipped without confidence
Both teams are coming back from a bye and it is a huge game.   There has been talk that Judd had been playing injured and is now okay after a “freshen up”.  The Blues win / loss record lately is poor; but they are slowly beginning to assemble their best team.  The only way that they could miss the finals is
a) more serious injuries; or

b) playing players too soon or playing injured players
Other than that, they should be on track, win or lose this weekend.
Speaking of which, Yarran has struggled, but must be nearing match fitness now His last 4 games have yielded 2 subbed on and 1 subbed off prior to the bye.
Warnock was injured in R11 and then played R12 without being that great.  He may also improve.
The Hawks are a bit easier to gauge.  They have hit form since their shocker against Richmond.  Their may be a slight risk on ”Che” Guerra who has been subbed out the last two game prior to the bye.

The EXTREME VARIANCE rating has been applied due to the unknowns about the Blues plus the bye factor.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: HAW + 14

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  HAW + 2

Pyschological:  Even (but tough to pick)

Injuries:  CARL + 4

Total: Hawks  by 18 points

Accumulator tip:  CARL ~  3.55



Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 18 points and they won by 50.  Analysis was some way off and the wrong Accumulator tip was made (and the Blues never really gave a yelp).  It appears that the Blues, for depth reasons, are playing players that are NQR.  The positive is that the Hawks were the tip.  Maybe the Hawks eased off in 4Q; maybe the Blues lifted a small amount, but Carlton are low on confidence.



2.  COLL vs FREO
The Pies should win this one

Collingwood are vulnerable.  But probably not vulnerable enough to lose this one.  They have done a great job to manage their injuries and keep a winning streak going.  It is likely to come unstuck some time, but not yet.  This is why they are listed as only just certs.  The Dockers also have their own injury concerns and face a better team away from home.  They are still missing Hill.  Broughton and Mayne were involved in a heavy clash late last week and there may be a small doubt on them, especially Broughton.

The Pies are still missing Tarrant and Sinclair.
* They are labelled as certs, but you may not wish to risk them if you are on a huge winning run of certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: COLL + 24

Current Form: COLL + 5

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes: FREO + 1

Pyschological:  FREO + 5

Injuries:  COLL + 5

Total: Pies  by 52 points and certs*

Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.11

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 52 points and they won by 29.  Analysis was reasonable and the Pies correctly tipped as certs, although they look like they are due for a loss (“but please not R15 vs Blues!”, we hear Pie fans cry).  The Pies’ depth is now being sorely tested, although the Dockers have a few injury concerns of their own.  Freo were just not good enough interstate to test Collingwood.



3.  ADEL vs RICH
The Crows, if they are back in town
The Crows have looked shaky since the bye in almost getting overrun by the Saints and then carrying their fourth quarter form into the next match, where they were blown away early by the Roos.  There was talk of the flu affecting players last weekend.   The match trend did not suggest an epidemic (such teams don’t have third quarter comebacks), but Dangerfield was certainly down on output.  Tippett will be tested on Friday, so look for news on that front.  The analysis assumes that Tippett will be okay and that Shaw (knee) may miss.
It is assumed that they will be all healthy now and back on track mentally for the Tigers game.
The Tigers are coming off the bye and were playing like tired boys for the last 2 rounds.  No doubt they will be refreshed, but they cannot afford a large “down time” of effort in Adelaide.  They are still missing Foley (important, although not the most noticed) and Vickery.  The Tigers have a tiny chance to win on their own merit, but a better chance if the Crows are off the boil.  It is assumed that Morris and Grimes are okay to play.

Some rain is forecast.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 18

Current Form: RICH + 1

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  RICH + 1

Pyschological:  ADEL + 6

Injuries:  RICH + 1

Total: Crows  by 26 points, but a slight risk

Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 1.42

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 26 points and they won by 19.  Analysis was just about perfect here.  Yes, the tip was close to the mark, but everyone was about that score.   The big positive was the extreme variance call.  The big momentum swings in the game showed that the extreme call was correct



4.  WCE vs SUNS
The Eagles easily
The Suns are in more trouble than the Aussie tennis players at present.  They have just lost another 4 players to injury – Tape and Thompson for the season.  They do get back Harbrow, but he may be short of a gallop.  Dixon is a handy inclusion, but is also just back from injury and a game or 2 in the NEAFL.  They will have nowhere near enough firepower to beat the Eagles.  And still no Campbell Brown.

Last year, the Eagles only won this corresponding home game by 18 points despite being huge favourites.
There is some risk that they may rest players; or be a bit flat following the big match against the Pies last weekend.   That may affect the margin, but not the result.  The Eagles are certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: WCE + 24

Current Form: WCE + 22

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  SUNS + 6 (assuming the Eagles will have late withdrawals)

Pyschological:  SUNS + 6

Injuries:  SUNS + 1 (get a positive reading due to higher rated players coming back in than are going out – nonetheless, their depth won’t be great enough to cover these losses)

Total: Eagles by 81 points and certs (but remember last year re margin!)

Accumulator tip:  WCE ~  1.01

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 81 points and they won by 126.  Analysis was reasonably okay.  They were BIIIIIIIIIIG certs, but everyone knew that.  Next!



5.  SYD vs GWS
The Swans without a worry
This is another looks easy, is easy game.  While the Giants may be “up” for this game, the Swans should have all the answers.   They may be slightly too relaxed after a Friday night win and a good rest.  The slowing down in finals quarters recently is a concern, but not here.   They are unlikely to take it too easy against their cross town rivals.  Mumford was considered some risk, but there is no ruck in the list of emergencies.  Cornes is an experienced body coming back fresh for this game.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: SYD + 19

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GWS + 5

Pyschological:  GWS + 5

Injuries:  SYD + 7

Total: Swans  by 64 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  SYD ~  1.01

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 64 points and they won by 94.  Analysis was okay; similar to Eagles comments above.  Swans were big certs.



6.  ESS vs WBD
The Bombers should fly up (no, I am not talking about the pre-season game that they missed!)
The Dogs hit rock bottom in terms of form last week.  Not often a hot favourite goes down by ~ 10 goals. 
Cooney is struggling with his knee injury.  He didn’t train Thursday, and may not get up for the game.   Wallis is rested; not sure if he will come in as a replacement for Cooney if needed – Gilbee is the most likely of the emergencies.  Minson and Hargrave’s return should help; bu the biggest plus will be the inside knowledge of the Bomber players.   How this can be exploited, given the Dogs’ problems, is uncertain.  This was the Dogs’ 2nd shocker in their past 3 games.  The return of Minson will be a help
The Bombers went to Perth an extra day earlier than usual last week.  It seemed to work!  Both teams were coming off a bye, but the Dons finished the better.   But will it benefit their next game in Melbourne?  Maybe, it won’t have an effect, but it adds to the uncertainty.
If you ignore this extra day early idea and the McCartney knowledge of the Dons, then Essendon would be certs.
These factors cause the game to be rated EXTREME VARIANCE and, as such, the dons will not be called certs.   But you can go for them if you want and your winning run is short.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: ESS + 15

Freshness:  WBD + 6

Team Changes:  WBD + 3

Pyschological:  WBD + 6

Injuries:  ESS + 2

Total: Dons  by 32 points

Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.22

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 32 points and they won by 84.  Analysis was just okay.  Probably the ability of the Dogs to lift was overestimated; and also the Dons amended west coast travel routine in R13 was no big deal in relation to their R14 form.   Further, the injuries to Griffen and Murphy killed off any tiny chance the Dogs had.   The Dons lost Crameri, but still had full rotations.



7.  GEEL vs PORT
The Cats are huge certs
Port has run out of players. Full stop.  Four injuries to key players (Cassisi, Hartlett, Schulz and Trengove) plus the suspension of Thomas has finished them off.  All this with Boak and Gray still missing, with Paul Stewart doubtful.  Surjan was concussed, but the bye should ensure all is well.

On top of this, Port is coming off the bye and the Cats are having their second game back.  Let’s not dally on this one.   Cats by plenty

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 18

Current Form: GEEL + 3

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GEEL + 24

Pyschological:  GEEL + 7

Injuries:  GEEL + 7

Total: Swans  by 89 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.06

Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 89 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was a long way off.  One factor was that the Cats made changes on Friday, taking Chapman and Josh Hunt out.   And then there was the rain, which reduced scoring somewhat.

Despite all that, the Cats struggled to put away the most depleted Port team for the year (with all their injuries; then Surjan was a late withdrawal on the day).   Of interest is that the Cats boarded a plane for sunny QLD almost immediately after the game.   This plan (which may be good for their finals preparation) may have taken the edge off them today.



8.  BRIS vs MELB

The Lions likely
These teams met in round 1 when the Lions pulled off an upset and won big.
Brisbane was terrific last week when n Melbourne for the 2nd week running.   They blew the Dogs away early and then moved in for the kill.
They may be running into form, but it is bit early to form a clear opinion on the matter.
The Dees made short work of the Giants last weekend.  This was the best (in terms of expectation) for any team coming off the bye.
But they have now lost Davey and Clark to injury and have to travel to Brisbane.   The memory of the R1 loss will still be in their minds this weekend.
The form lines and home ground all point to a Lions win and they are the tip.  But there are just enough doubts to stop short of labelling them certs.  Especially when the certs from the bottom half of the ladder can really come back to bite you!!

Humidity tipped to be ~ 70%, which is not to bad for the Dees.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  BRIS + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form: BRIS + 4

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  BRIS + 1

Pyschological:  Even (but hard to pick)

Injuries:  BRIS + 1

Total: Lions  by 30 points, bot NOT certs

Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 1.22

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 30 points and they won by 61.  Analysis was reasonable; once the late changes were in, the margin tipped would have been around 40 – 50 points.  Then the Dees lost Tom McDonald early and the rest is hysteria.


9.  STK vs NMFC
The Saints, but not confident
The Saints almost came marching against the Crows in Adelaide before the their bye.   Prior to that, they thrashed the Suns in Qld.

Due to the vagaries of the bye, the Roos have played the exact 2 teams in their last 2 matches.
They also played the Suns in Qld and fell over the line for an unimpressive win.  Then they did a job on the Crows in Melbourne.  The latter win gives them a chance this weekend, but the win is hard to assess.  The Crows may have had flu, or been on a downer.  Nonetheless, the Roos were good enough to take advantage of the situation.   Grima back in the team (since R8 and gradually improving) makes them look better.

Please refer to the technical analysis of North in last week’s previews / reviews.   The technical analysis suggests that, after a win like last week, the team should hold form thereafter – but without the huge overachievements following.

On this basis, the Roos are a chance against the Saints this weekend.

The Saints are coming off the bye.  They were great beforehand, but it is unclear how well they will be on the other side.   This website says the jury is still out on whether the Saints are really clicking at present.   When they had the big comeback against the Crows, Adelaide almost blew them away early in the last quarter but missed their chances.   And Adelaide was first up from the bye that night.

Stanley (picked in 7 man bench) and Riewoldt may be doubtful for the Saints.   Riewoldt has done very well vs Roos in recent years, so his fitness is crucial to the contest.   Ziebell may have to pass a test for North, as well.

This match has EXTREME VARIANCE written all over it.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: Even

Current Form: STK + 10

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  Even

Pyschological:  NMFC + 2 (but hard to pick)

Injuries:  STK + 2

Total: Saints by 10 points

Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 3.20

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 10 points but the Roos won by 33.  Analysis was better than it looks.  Yes, the loss cost the 9 wins and one always wants the 2 bonus points.   But North was the Accumulator tip, so this was a positive.

You were warned about the EXTREME variance.  Riewoldt was a risk and struggled. Jones and Siposs were late withdrawals, and this hurt.  Stanley was a risk – perhaps should have waited another week.  Soon after he went off, Blake did an ankle and the Roos overran the Saints.



Best cert: Cats, then Eagles, Swans and Pies

Best Outsider Not a week for outsiders, but the Roos and Blues are the best in 2 EXTREME VARIANCE games

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Cats by over 9 goals against a depleted opponent

Happy tipping!  The favourites look pretty safe overall this weekend; and not a weekend to try to catch the leaders unless you are already at the desperation stage

Best cert: Cats, then Eagles, Swans and Pies

Best Outsider Not a week for outsiders, but the Roos and Blues are the best in 2 EXTREME VARIANCE games

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Cats by over 9 goals against a depleted opponent

Happy tipping!  The favourites look pretty safe overall this weekend; and not a weekend to try to catch the leaders unless you are already at the desperation stage





Game              Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is

1 CARL v HAW HAW 18 EXTREME Blues are a definite chance
2 COLL v FREO COLL 52 HIGH Freo almost no hope
3 ADEL v RICH ADEL 26 EXTREME Tigers a small hope
4 WCE v SUNS WCE 81 HIGH Suns no hope!
5 SYD v GWS SYD 64 HIGH Giants are no chance
6 ESS v WBD ESS 32 EXTREME Dogs a very rough hope only
7 GEEL v PORT GEEL 89 MEDIUM Port are no hope
8 BRIS v MELB BRIS 30 HIGH Dees a small chance only
9 STK v NMFC STK 10 EXTREME Roos are a big chance