Round 15, 2013

Round 15, 2013

Scores after round 14 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.

Tips correct: 6 for a score of 88 (86 real winners +2 bonus points) and improved from 17,739 to 17,667 out of 66,562 tipsters.

Accumulator: 9.17(quite good!) for a total of 103.93 and improved from 4,303 to 3,351 out of 11,796 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated (By picking the Suns – who were really dreadful)

NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 3 of 3 certs correctly – streak now up to 14 (with Hawks, Roos, Tigers and Swans winning easily; picking these winners was the easy bit – the hard bit was avoiding Collingwood and the Dogs).

50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 correct for the round
Wrong:  The Suns were dreadful
Right:  The Cats won by over 15 points
so now at 14 out of 29 = 48% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R15:  The Sunday selections ONCE AGAIN look obvious in Swans, Dockers and Dons.  Keen also on the Dogs over Giants and Tigers over Roos.  The Pies will be tipped to beat the Blues, while the other games are too tough to pick yet BUT SEE BELOW FOR UPDATE!

Late breaking news:  Ablett out!!  The experts have assigned this as a 10 point effect.  IE the Lions were expected to win by 12 points and now it is 22.  While the change is about right, one should shy away from labelling the Lions as complete certs.  The original tip here of Lions by 6 points would now change to about 14, but still a danger game for the Lions!

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:

1 CARL V COLL    CARL 4       EXTREME   a definite chance

2 GWS V WBD      WBD 29       EXTREME   a tiny chance only

3 NMFC V RICH    RICH 16      HIGH           some chance

4 BRIS V GCS       BRIS 6        EXTREME   a definite chance

5 GEEL V HAW     GEEL 2       HIGH           tipped to win

6 ADEL V WCE     ADEL 17      EXTREME   some chance

7 MELB V SYD      SYD 40        HIGH           no hope

8 FREO V STK      FREO 64     HIGH           no hope

9 ESS V PORT      ESS 18        EXTREME   some chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

The Blues without any confidence at all
The Blues would be tipped with a bit more hope had it been known that Murphy and Carrazzo would both be able to perform at a high level.

Murphy seems to have come back from a fractured cheekbone a week too early.  Other than that, the Blues have a reasonable healthy list.  Look for improvement from Betts

For the Pies, the news just keeps getting worse.  Nathan Buckley  promised a better performance than last week vs Port, but it would need to be considerably better in order to tip them.

Now there is a rumour that Harry O’Brien (out – ankle) is actually missing because of a rift with the coach.  The twittersphere is spinning off its axis with the news.  This may affect the playing group – possibly negatively.

The absence of O’Brien makes the Collingwood injury quotient the worst in the league at 24.  Now with Lynch going out, the Collingwood ruck division is made up of the ageing Hudson and the raw Witts.

It has been said that “teams have worked Collingwood out” by putting a player in (the hole in) front of Cloke.  This will be watched in the near future.

The ins and outs (as teams selected) from R2 where Collingwood won by 17 points are:
In: Betts, Curnow, McInnes, Waite, Cachia
Out: Bootsma, Davies, Laidler, Rowe, Bell
In: Ball, Kennedy, Krakouer, Josh Thomas, Witts, Williams, Young, Hudson
Out: Clarke, Goldsack, Johnson,  Jolly, Lynch, O’Brien, Russell, Toovey

A quick check would suggest that the Blues are better off than the Pies based on those changes.  And the 8 changes at Collingwood tells you what a turbulent year it has been injury-wise.

Forecast:  a few showers, windy and cold

This is a tough game and the many unknowns make it an EXTREME VARIANCE game.  This means that it is very difficult to tip a winner and expect that unexpected (but then, if you expect it, it is no longer unexpected!)

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   COLL + 1

Team Changes:  CARL + 3

Psychological:    CARL + 3

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     CARL + 11

Total:     Blues by 4 points
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 2.25.

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 4 points but the Pies won by 41.  Analysis was mixed.  Good that the Accumulator tip was correct, but missed out on the outright tip.   The early thoughts above were for picking the Pies.  But the outs of O’Brien + Lynch – together with the extended out for Jolly – narrowly changed things to make the Blues the selection.  The injuries to the Magpies were obvious, but those for the Blues were hidden.  There was always a worry that Murphy would be underdone.  He scored about half his usual Supercoach score.  This problem was exacerbated when Waite was subbed off in 1Q.  Then Betts was injured in 3Q and sat out the latter part of the game, while Robinson was hampered by injury.  With all these problems, it meant that the Pies overall superiority came to the fore.  The O’Brien controversy continues, but it had no negative impact on the Pies.




The Dogs are almost certs
Just last week, you were warned not to get too excited about declaring lowly teams as certs.  But this time it is tempting – because the Giants are down and out – and they are travelling for the 2nd week in a row (having a home game in cold Canberra).  Maybe Julia could cheer herself up by getting along to see the Dogs play.

The Giants have dropped Greene after topping the DT points for his team last week!!! Expect that he (emergency now) will come in for someone – possibly Palmer.  While Coniglio and Cameron are good “ins”, they are still missing Brogan and Davis.  And Cornes is now gone for good. 

Forecast:  extremely cold

The variance is EXTREME due to the unreliability of each team; and especially how the Giants fire 2nd up from a spell.

Maths (in points)

Ability: WBD + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:  GWS + 6

Current Form:   WBD + 9

Team Changes:  GWS + 6

Psychological:    WBD + 3

Freshness:    WBD + 6

Injuries:     WBD + 2

Total:     Dogs by 26 points and ALMOST certs
Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 1.24.

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 26 points and they won by 4. Analysis was barely passable. The good news was that the Dogs weren’t tipped as certs.  A 4 point “fall over the line” win is not how a cert should win.  The other positives are just getting both tips right.




The Tigers to roll on
Richmond looks to be a sustained run of good form.  They last lost in R9 to Essendon and have significantly exceeded expectations in their 4 games since.  The improvement seems to be coming from the mid range players – such as Jackson, Foley (well, he was really good, but we haven’t seen him for a couple of years) and, ironically, ex Roo Aaron Edwards of late.  

The Tigers won’t be tipped as certs, but with a quiet feeling of confidence.  Etihad will slightly help the Roos.

McMahon is still out for the Roos, while Maric likewise for the Tigers.  The ruck is where North can win, but Tigers.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: NMFC + 3

Current Form:   RICH + 7

Team Changes:  RICH + 1

Psychological:    RICH + 4

Freshness:    RICH + 3

Injuries:     NMFC + 2

Total:     Tigers by 16 points
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.47.

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 16 points but the Roos won by 62.  Analysis was miles off, but most were in the same boat.  There was no inkling that the Tigers were going to be off the boil in the usual way (IE: often teams on a reasonable winning run of 4 or more will tend to drop off late in matches).  They got away without Maric last week, but this time Goldstein dominated.  It seems that the Tigers didn’t “come to play”.  Vlastuin came back from injury and struggled.  Ellis was subbed out after a 1Q head knock; Jackson had a bit of an ankle problem.
Anyway, the Roos got possession of the ball in defence and chipped short to free players.  The Roos were great on the day.  Unlikely characters in Hansen, Greenwood and Tarrant all scored over 100 SC points, while Ziebell hit top form.  It is interesting that, early in the season, most of the teams that played the Giants underperformed the following week.  But the Giants last 2 opponents both had big upset wins the following week (Port over Swans and now Roos over Tigers).




The Lions without confidence
Brisbane have been gradually regaining their best team.   Their injury + suspension quotient has come down from 21 to 9 in the past month.   Meanwhile, back at the Gold Coast, theirs has gone from 14 to 19.  This is the sole reason for picking the Lions.  That being the case, the confidence levels are low.

The Suns were flying (relatively) before the bye, but put in a shocker first up.  They will probably do better when Dixon (when fit) and Brennan (when whatever) are back in and playing well.
There is a technical lead for the Suns – that is that they were terrible first up after the bye and therefore should excel this week.  But the trust in this lead is weaker because the Suns are a fledgling club and not to be too trusted (as was the mistake last week).

The Suns played at home last week while the Lions went to Tassie.  This is a small plus for Gold Coast.

Another EXTREME variance game!!

Late breaking news:  Ablett out!!  The experts have assigned this as a 10 point effect.  IE the Lions were expected to win by 12 points and now it is 22.  While the change is about right, one should shy away from labelling the Lions as complete certs.  The original tip here of Lions by 6 points would now change to about 14, but still a danger game for the Lions!  Extreme Variance call still stands.

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground: BRIS + 3

Current Form:   BRIS + 3

Team Changes:  SUNS + 5

Psychological:    BRIS + 1 (but uncertain!)

Freshness:    SUNS + 6

Injuries:     BRIS + 10

Total:     Lions by 6 points
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 2.65.

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 6 points (prior to Ablett withdrawing) and they won by 33.  Analysis was fair only.  The scoring patterns seemed to indicate a non-extreme game.  Not sure if the late news in purple writing above was correct.  Not helping the Suns was that they went a rotation down when McKenzie was injured in 4Q.  Apparently May was also struggling, but due to fitness issues.  Gorringe also was slightly impaired.  The Lions had some problems but less than the Suns.   Gold Coast have been flat since the bye.




The Cats (blame Jeff!!)
The Hawks have been tipped in the past few Cats / Hawks meetings, but the Jeff factor will mean that the Cats are tipped this time. 

Actually, the Jeff factor plus the injury status.  The Cats injury situation is slightly improving while the Hawks status is a bit worse.  Yes, we know Cyril is back, but Guerra and Birchall are still out and now they lose Ceglar, Ellis and Shiels (all injured in one week).  Not household names like Rioli, of course.

Expect Cyril to be useful without being a match-winner.  Despite the fact that this game is very important, they will be mindful of how much game time to give him.

Gibson fell on his neck last week, but has been declared fit.  There may be a small doubt on him.

The Cats are unchanged and have they found one in Simpson in the ruck?  He and Blicavs are currently keeping West and Vardy in the vfl.

And the Cats played at home last week on Saturday, while the Hawks had a Sunday Tassie contest.

How many times can the Cats find something and come from behind to beat the Hawks?  The answer is usually “9 lives”, but they are already at ten!

One thing about the eventual (this week or the distant future) is that sometimes when a team finally breaks through against a nemesis, they can win big.

Weather forecast:  chance of a shower, cold

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   HAW + 2

Team Changes:  HAW + 2

Psychological:    GEEL + 5

Freshness:    GEEL + 2

Injuries:     GEEL + 5

Total:     Cats by 2 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 2.10.

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 2 points and they won by 10.  Analysis was very good, although the Cats dominated the game statistically and may have won by more.  And, although the Hawks missed some simple shots, the Cats booted 1:13 in the middle quarters.  And then there was the goal caused by the interchange.  Rioli was the sub and looked dangerous but rusty when on in 3Q. Anyway, it is always good news when an outsider (ever so slightly) is tipped and wins.




The Crows, but not keen on this game
The Eagles have looked great in patches in recent weeks without winning.

And the Crows have been poor until last week when they were impressive against the Suns.  But there is a bit of a doubt on their victory in QLD last weekend.  Maybe the Suns just had a downer.  Furthermore, coach Sanderson said they had some sore boys after the game.  Wright was one who played injured due to the early subbing out of Reilly.

So have the Crows turned the corner?  Maybe from ordinary to middle of the road.

West Coast just keeps getting more injuries.  They now have the 2nd worst injury quotient behind Collingwood.  For this reason, they will not be tipped.  Their three “out injured” this week all got plenty of the ball last week – making matters even worse.  And then Hutchings scored over 100 SC points vs the Bombers.  It is doubted that he can do that again.

Scott and/or Adam Selwood probably would’ve got significant tagging jobs this week, but both are still out.  It all points to a Crow victory, but doubts remain about them!! 

The doubts on both teams are enough to make this an EXTREME variance game

Forecast:  a few showers and cold

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 21

Current Form:   ADEL + 2

Team Changes:  ADEL + 7

Psychological:    WCE + 5

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     ADEL + 4

Total:     Crows by 17 points
Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 1.62 (but Eagles at 2.30 is not altogether silly).

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 17 points but the Eagles won by 6.  Analysis was not that great.  There was always some doubts about the merit of the Crows’ victory over the Suns in the previous week.  Maybe the 9 day break for the Eagles proved beneficial in the end.  In a way, the Crows were slightly unlucky in losing Riley early in 1Q.  Embley came on as the sub for Sheppard (and later, for Brennan) and was great in 4Q.




The Swans are certs
The Dees were great for 3 quarters last weekend.  #1 draft pick Jack Watts racked up good numbers and they finally got a win against a Victorian team.  But don’t expect the good news to continue much longer.

The Swans are back in business and should win this one comfortably.  The one tiny danger (which will be dismissed) is that they played a wet Friday night game and have a 9 day break until the Dees’ match.  This break is too long to be ideal; and the Swans may have had a nice little rest and started feeling good about themselves.  But this risk will be dismissed.

The Dees still have no Jamar and McKenzie; while Jetta is out for the Swans.   The experts are tipping about a 10 goal win.  That is possible, but a lesser margin is probably more likely.

Weather forecast:  chance of a shower, cold

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 36 POINTS

Home Ground:  MELB + 15

Current Form:   SYD + 15

Team Changes:  SYD + 2

Psychological:    SYD + 1

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     SYD + 1

Total:     Swans by 40 points
Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.01.

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 40 points and they won by 31.  Analysis was magnificent!  The Swans were always going to win, but also rarely looked like winning huge.  The motivation levels for the Swans was for 4 points rather than a percentage boost. Conversely, the Dees gained some credits by fighting it out to the finish. Perhaps the Swans could’ve / should’ve won by more.  Their 31 point margin was made up of 3 extra goals and 13 more behinds.




The Dockers are the certs of the week
When the Saints left out Nick Riewoldt for soreness, the game was over.  Well, probably over before that, but this was the last straw.

The Dockers should win this one easily.  They have many good ins (although Mundy may be a risk and Johnson also).  Their website said on 03 July:

Fremantle stars Matthew Pavlich, Aaron Sandilands and Michael Barlow trained strongly at the club’s first main session of the week ahead of Sunday’s game against St Kilda.

Barlow missed last week’s loss to Geelong with a jaw injury , while veterans Pavlich and Sandilands have been out most of the season.

Classy midfielder David Mundy, who has sat out the past two games with a calf injury, was not on the track.

Neither was Michael Johnson, who hurt his knee in the second quarter of Saturday’s game against Geelong but played out the second half.

Lee Spurr was a late withdrawal against the Cats with a bout of gastro. He only participated in light duties, along with Zac Dawson, Chris Mayne, Nick Suban and Danyle Pearce.

All Australian defender Luke McPharlin undertook a series of stretches and short runs before leaving the track.

A 25-man squad will be announced at 4.25pm WST on Thursday before being finalised when the team has its final main training session on Friday morning.

While this tells us that they may not all be 100%, they will do well enough to win well. The term “trained strongly” means in 99% of cases “will definitely play”.   However, the Dockers will be monitoring game time for Pav and Sandilands especially.  With the Derby coming up in R16, there will be as much focus of the progress of these two as this weekend’s game.  Read more about Pav in “Pavlich* Progress” by John Bunyan.
* or some similar name!

For the Saints, Schneider is still missing.  And their overall injury quotient is heading in the wrong direction – at 21 and 3rd worst in the comp!

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:  FREO + 24

Current Form:   FREO + 7

Team Changes:  FREO + 9

Psychological:    STK + 2

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:     FREO + 8

Total:     Dockers by 64 points and CERTS of the WEEK
Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.02.

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 64 points and they won by 30.  Analysis was just average.  No harm was done in terms of picking the winner, but that wasn’t hard and the margin tip was way off.  The Saints were surprisingly “up” in terms of tackles.  The Saints big worry was the number of inexperienced players they had on the park.  But many of them exceeded expectations.  The Sc points for the “unknowns” were:

Murdoch: 61

Saunders: 63

Lee: 67

And the Dockers were very scratchy and their disposal was substandard early.  Nonetheless, the Dockers never looked like losing in the latter part of the game and the “cert” call was correct.



The Dons, with some qualms
This Sunday is Qualm Sunday, as far as the Dons are concerned.  After their great come-from-behind win last week, they read as certs at home this weekend.

But 2 things are a concern.
A:  Port has hit form big time after the bye.  Nobody took much notice of their demolition of the tired Giants in R12, but then they beat the Swans and Pies.  But this wouldn’t be enough on its own to cause Bomber concern.  Port played the Giants when the young boys badly needed a rest.  Then they played both the Swans and Pies when those teams were coming off the break and possibly a bit rusty.  Their overachievement points in the past three weeks are: +45 points, +55 and +52.  A likely scenario is that they will settle into a “normal” form line soon.
But they real concern for the Bombers is:
B: they played on a Thursday and now have an 11 day break to the next game.  This is way too long.  They played R12 on a Saturday and then had a short bye break of 12 days and then a long “normal” break of 11 days.  This is quite unsettling and will be a test of the routines and the way the club handles the “free time” for the team.

This scheduling makes the game an EXTREME variance game – that and the amazing form line of Port in recent weeks.  Port’s injury list is at its lowest level for 2013 right now.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  ESS + 18

Current Form:    EVEN

Team Changes:  PORT + 1

Psychological:    PORT + 6

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     PORT + 5

Total:     Dons by 18 points
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 3.75.

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 18 points and they won by 30.  Analysis was reasonable.  Realistically, the large number of unknowns made it difficult to make a sensible prediction.  The Bombers exceeded expectations in 2 ways:

A: the experts tipped them by 24 and they won by 30; and

B: they did it without Watson (off in 1Q) and Stanton was significantly restricted
The Bombers seemed to rise to the challenge of the Watson and Stanton incident.  Expect them to underperform next week, because this was a highly emotional win.




Best cert: Dockers and Swans (once more – Sunday certs) (both correct)

Best Outsider: The Cats (correct), then Suns (not close), Pies (correct) and Port some hope (tried hard)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Crows to win by more than 10 points (incorrect)
Melbourne to win or lose by less than 57 points (correct)
Dockers to win by over 59 points (incorrect)

For those still alive in th Last Man Standing, the lines are approx

Carlton by 6 1/2 points

Dogs by 29 1/2

Tigers by 13 1/2

Lions by 12 1/2

Hawks by 5 1/2

Crows by 8 1/2

Swans by 60 1/2

Dockers by 58 1/2

Dons by 23 1/2

Not an easy lot to pick from, but maybe the choices would be Dees (correct), Crows (incorrect) or Dockers (incorrect).

Happy tipping!  This is the toughest weekend of tipping all year!