Round 15


Data to be added Thursday 5 July, 2012


Round 15, 2012

Scores after round 14 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 8 and cumulative: 89 winners (including bonus 2 points) and slipped back slightly from 9,653 to 9,965 out of 72,867 tipsters.  Slipped back due to those getting 9 winners and leap-frogging a few spots!! Streak:  tipped 4 of 4 certs correctly. 
The streak is now at 5.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Cats didn’t win by enough!), so now at 8 out of 14 = 57% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  Should have been 12.1 points, but something went wrong with the entry of the data and scored 6.83 for points for the round and dropped from 492 to 496 out of 11,851 tipsters.   A moral victory, but one must ensure that the data is entered correctly.

Early thoughts for R15: Early thoughts for R15:  Richmond, Sydney, Adelaide, Hawthorn, Geelong and Freo all look like certs.  Collingwood and Essendon appear to be hot favourites, but will not mark them as certs at this stage; the North / Eagles game looks like the toughest to pick.



Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.


Danger game or 10 goal win?
The Pies have been tremendous in recording the longest winning run of the year.  They seem to keep finding something when needed (Eg wins over Crows, Cats and Eagles).  They actually have a slightly worse injury problem than the Blues at present, but have coped better (having their own VFL team has helped).

The Blues thrashed the Pies in R3 this year.  From that game, the Blues have lost Henderson, Murphy, Laidler and Waite (who starred that night).

And the Pies (from R3) lose Ball (injured early that game) and Pendlebury.

Neither team has gained anyone of great importance.

The Blues are in a trough at present.   Their whole season depends upon how they get out of it.  The technical charts show conflicting data for them.   The Friday night humiliation chart suggests that the Blues could improve markedly this week.  This has been a reliable guide, but the time it failed badly was in late 2010 for Essendon.   They were pounded by the Blues one Friday night, then played the hot Pies the following Friday and were beaten by 98 points.  The theory fell down because the coach was due to be sacked.

The Blues will be given the benefit of the doubt in this case and tipped to exceed expectations.  And there were minuscule signs of improvement by the Blues in 4Q last week.

This gives them a hope, without being highly fancied.  There are still concerns over the fitness of Yarran and Jamison (watch for news on late changes).

The Pies have taken the conservative (and, probably, wise) approach with Pendlebury, Didak and Tarrant (much to the dismay of some DT+SC players).

This is an EXTREME variance game due to the Blues’ issues.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 12 POINTS (Blues downgraded this week)

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  COLL + 7

Freshness:  CARL + 3

Team Changes:  COLL + 1

Pyschological:  CARL + 7 (see above, hard to pick)

Injuries:  COLL + 2

Total: Pies by 11 points

Accumulator tip: CARL ~ 4.35



Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 11 points but the Blues won by 23.  Analysis was reasonably good here.  Most had the Pies as absolute certs and the Pies were more strongly supported as the week went on.  The technical analysis really kicked in as the Blues, who were embarrassed last week, really came out firing against the Pies.   The multiple injuries to both sides favoured Carlton (in the sense that they had an extra day’s rest – which helped when the benches were greatly restricted).  And the Blues apparently conducted a “players only” meeting during the week!!

The Pies were wasteful early.   This proves you should never give a down and out team an even break.

The big positive was the Accumulator – Blues blew out to a juicy 4.90; I hope I talked someone out of tipping the Pies as certs.


Eagles tipped, but Roos “hopful”
Each time the Roos record an upset win, there is an excuse for the loser.

R3 – the Cats had just played Hawthorn

R13 – the crows had the flu

R14 – the Saints had injuries on the day

Despite all that, North has improved slightly in recent times.  Grima has improved steadily since he returned in R8.  a curio is that the much maligned Hansen has played 2 games for the year – in the last 2 upset wins.  The players apparently got together to improve things around bye time.  How good they are and how much they have improved is still under question.  Scott Thompson was a late withdrawal last week and is still not back.

The Eagles still have some injury worries and Adam Selwood is still out.  Their injury rating is 16 compared to a low 6 for the Roos (lower number is good news).

Given a first time trip to Hobart for the Eagles and the other issues above, they must be some sort of a risk.  This shapes as a game where the pressure will be on early; and the likely winner may be evident early.

Last time they played, the Eagles were comfortable 4 goal winners, but that was in Perth.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:    NMFC + 18

Current Form: WCE + 2

Freshness:  WCE + 6

Team Changes:  WCE + 1

Pyschological:  WCE + 1

Injuries:  WCE + 2

Total: Eagles by 12 points

Accumulator tip: NMFC ~ 2.70

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 12 points and they won by 2.  Analysis was close to the mark.  It was, indeed, a danger game.  The Accumulator didn’t salute, but was good value.  Beau Waters being a late withdrawal didn’t help the Eagles.  Maybe the Roos lost momentum when Goldstein copped a knock in the third quarter (and so the Eagles were a bit lucky to win).


Tiger sins give Demons hope
Richmond have 5 “forced” changes this week – 2 injured and 3 suspended.  And 2 poor souls also found themselves dropped.

One usually doesn’t tip a team with 7 changes. The lesson from history would be: don’t get too excited about the Tigers this weekend.

And they still don’t have Foley back.

In reality, they still should win; even with the Tigers’ outs, the Dees still have more worries.  And the discipline at the Tigers may even help them to fire up.

The main one is that Jamar is still out; now they lose Sellar and Mcdonald.  This makes them short on talls; and Spencer has to fill in at a pinch.

Tigers are the tip, but the experts have them too highly fancied.

But this is an EXTREME variance game.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:    Even

Current Form: RICH + 5

Freshness:  RICH + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 18

Pyschological:  MELB + 2 (but very hard to pick)

Injuries:  MELB + 2

Total: Tigers by 13 points

Accumulator tip:  MELB ~ 5.30

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 13 points and they won by 23.  Analysis was okay.  Maybe the “galvanise the club” aspect of the discipline was slightly underestimated.  The Tigers perhaps could have won by more.  Some doubt on whether the Dees should have been tipped in the Accumulator.


Swans to fly high
Brisbane have been much better lately and have had their ability rating upgraded.  Zorko has been great and Redden has improved mid-season. 
But there is no need to spend much time on this game.  The Swans

Are flying and the Lions caught the Dees on a good day last weekend.  Swans are certs at the SCG.

Forecast:  clearing shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:    SYD + 18

Current Form: BRIS + 3

Freshness:  SYD + 6

Team Changes:  SYD + 2

Pyschological:  SYD + 1

Injuries:  SYD + 3

Total: Swans by 45 points and CERTS

Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.17

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 45 points and they won by 47.  Analysis was okay.  The experts had this as a Swans win by 33 points.  Maybe they were “better”, because Black was a late withdrawal for the Lions in the warm-up.  They were correctly tipped as certs.


Dons to roll on
Based on last week, the Dons should win by 100!!!  But the Saints were worse than they looked last week; while the Dogs were too injured vs the Bombers.

Having said that, the Saints have lost talls in Stanley + Blake (who plays as a tall) as well as Goddard.

With Jones back in for the Saints (to tag Watson, probably) and just a slight doubt on how well the Dons may be from here on in, the Dons will be tipped, but not as certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:    Even

Current Form: ESS + 8

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  ESS + 5

Pyschological:  STK + 6

Injuries:  ESS + 2

Total: Bombers by 27 points

Accumulator tip: ESS ~ 1.38

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 27 points but the Saints won by 71.  Analysis was way off here.  One critical ingredient was not considered – the weird looking clash jumper.  The less the clash jumper looks like the real thing, the worse teams tend to go.  The Saints had a shocker of a yellow one some time ago and they regularly got flogged when wearing it.  Not only that, the Saints players looked closer to Essendon colours than the Bombers themselves.

Also, the Dons had significant injuries and ran out of players in the end.  The one tiny positive was not labelling the Dons as certs.


Crow no Mercy
This may appear to be a game where Port has a chance, but forget it.

Yes, they looked highly competitive against Geelong for most of the day (without looking a chance).   But the Cat players were more concerned about their sun screen and togs.  The Cats boarded a plane to QLD straight after the game.   The form from this game should be discarded.

The real guide to this game is the players missing from each team.

Crows: Cullinan, Petrenko, Walker

Port: Cassisi, Gray, Hartlett, Hitchcock, Renouf, Salopek, Salter, Schulz, Thomas, Trengove (emergency, but would be in the team barring recent injuries)

Port is much worse off in terms of injury and suspension.   They also played in the rain last Sunday; whereas the Crows had a Saturday game at home.

Port “got away” with their lack of top players last week, but it will come back to bite them hard this weekend.   Boak has been named, but there may be queries on him (form, fitness, may be going?) and Paul Stewart may require a test

Crows easily

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:    Even

Current Form: ADEL + 4

Freshness:  ADEL + 10

Team Changes:  PORT + 2

Pyschological:  ADEL + 11

Injuries:  ADEL + 4

Total: Crows by 51 points

Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 1.22

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 51 points and they won by 58.  Analysis was magnificent here.  Correct tip + accumulator + 50/50 tip of the Crows by over 29 points.  The key was that Port “got away” with their depleted list last weekend, but it came back to bite them hard in the Showdown.  The Crows did it despite injuries, although Surjan didn’t look quite right for Port either.


Hawks by Heaps
The big interest in this game initially will be whether Franklin plays; and whether there may be other last minute changes.
This looks like the cert of the round.   The Hawks are going great and the Giants are struggling to finish off the year.

There may be a danger that the Hawks may enjoy their weekend off (after disposing of the Blues last Friday night) and be a bit slow to get into gear this week.  But this won’t be nearly enough to effect the result.

Hawks by heaps.  They may need the percentage

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 66 POINTS

Home Ground:  HAW + 18

Current Form: HAW + 29

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GWS + 3 (Buddy may pull out)

Pyschological:  GWS + 1

Injuries:  GWS + 7

Total: Hawks by 102 points and CERTS

Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 102 points and they won by 162.  Analysis was good enough.  Not much to comment about here, except that there was probably more interest in Franklin, his injury, his SC+DT score, than the result.  And the Hawks really came to play – which was the only thing in question.


Cats to Eclipse Suns
The Cats aren’t as certain as the Hawks.   Their preparation has been very strange – jumping on a plane after the R14 struggling win; then getting rescued by life guards, playing in the sun….. and, eventually, training for a game.

This “holiday” for the Cats is all about freshening up for the last part of the season.  Of course, no point in getting ready if they drop this game.

Given the injury worries for the Suns (with Brown, Harbrow and Rischitelli all just back multi-week lay-offs), the Cats look pretty safe.

The Suns will probably be motivated after the shocker in the west plus the Malcolm blight appointment, but it’s the Cats comfortably.

Forecast:  possible shower with humidity not a major factor

Maths (in points)

Ability:  GEEL + 48 POINTS

Home Ground:  SUNS + 18

Current Form: GEEL + 20

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  SUNS + 3

Pyschological:  SUNS + 4

Injuries:  GEEL + 2

Total: Cats by 45 points and CERTS

Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 45 points and they won by 14.  Analysis was just okay, but better than the experts who were around the 10 goal mark.  The Suns experienced “ins” all did okay.  As for the Cats – are they “gone” or just in a flat patch (having been just average vs Port previously)?   The answer is that it is hard to win big when you are on holidays.  This factor was slightly underestimated.  But the “certs” tip was still justified, as they never looked like losing after half time.


Dockers to Dominate
The season is long gone for the Dog-gone Dogs.  Brendan McCartney is rebuilding, teaching and looking to 2013.  Losing Cooney, Murphy and Addison to injury won’t help them this weekend.   And Ryan Griffen may need to pass a test.

The Dogs ran out of fit players last week, but were still miles off the Dons.

The Dockers have Hill back, are playing at home and should be certs here.  They were very competitive against Collingwood in Melbourne last weekend.

Forecast:  showers easing in Perth

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  FREO + 24

Current Form: FREO + 13

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  FREO + 12

Pyschological:  WBD + 1

Injuries:  FREO + 1

Total: Dockers by 49 points and CERTS

Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.22

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 49 points and they won by 38.  Analysis was pretty good in this case.  Freo were never in doubt and won comfortably.


Best cert: Hawks (easiest win of the year), then Crows (easy win) , Dockers (comfortable) and Cats (did enough without looking great)

Best Outsider Roos again (soooo close!), then Blues if you really want to lash out (got the chocolates).  Dees are a rough chance (competitive only)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Crows by over 29 points (did it easily despite injuries)

Happy tipping!  The favourites look safer this round as the weekend progresses.  The main hopes for upsets are in the first 3 matches





Game              Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is


COLL V CARL COLL 11 EXTREME Blues a chance
NMFC V WCE WCE 12 HIGH Roos a chance
SYD V BRIS SYD 45 HIGH Lions no hope
STK V ESS ESS 27 EXTREME Saints a slim hope only
PORT V ADEL ADEL 51 MEDIUM No chance for Port
HAW V GWS HAW 102 HIGH Giants are no hope
SUNS v GEEL GEEL 45 HIGH Suns are no hope
FREO V WBD FREO C HIGH Dogs are no hope