Round 16, 2013

Round 16, 2013

Scores after round 15 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.

Tips correct: 6 for a score of 94 (92 real winners +2 bonus points) and slightly improved from 17,667 to 17,212 out of 66,604 tipsters.

Accumulator: 7.62 (reasonable) for a total of 111.55 and improved from 3,351 to 3,283 out of 11,798 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated in R14

NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly – streak now up to 15 (with Swans and Dockers winning nicely).  Ranked 5,727 out of 60,603 tipsters.

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 correct for the round
Wrong:  The Crows lost and the Dockers didn’t win by enough
Right:  The Dees got close enough to the Swans (<57 points)
so now at 15 out of 32 = 47% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R16:  The best certs appear to be the Cats, Blues and Swans.  Most would tip the Dons as certs, but this is a big danger game for them.  The Pies and Hawks look reasonably sure without being certs.  The Lions / Roos game is a toughie.  The Dockers and Tigers will probably be tipped without extreme confidence.  The team most likely to exceed the expectations of the experts and the Dogs and Blues.

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:
1 COLL V ADEL    COLL 30      EXTREME   a tiny chance
2 PORT V HAW    HAW 24       HIGH           a tiny chance
3 GEEL V MELB   GEEL 50      HIGH           no hope at all
4 RICH V SUNS    RICH 26      HIGH           a tiny chance
5 CARL V STK      CARL 25     HIGH           no hope at all
6 BRIS V NMFC    NMFC 5       HIGH           a big chance
7 SYD V GWS       SYD 65        HIGH           no hope at all
8 WBD V ESS       ESS 15        HIGH           a big chance
9 WCE V FREO     FREO 22     EXTREME   a tiny chance

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions





The Pies
The Crows have been ordinary since their last gasp win over the Roos in R9 (except for one good win over the Suns up north).   There is no reason to suspect things will get better this week.  Apart from that, and the slightly higher injury list at Collingwood, the Crows look to have little hope.

But ONE THING will mean that the Pies will not be tipped as certs. The Pies had a huge build-up to their match against the Blues and may be a tad flat this time.  The technical charts on this show that the under-performance for teams in this situation can be as much as -70.  In 2012, the Blues had 2 big Friday night wins against Collingwood and followed them up with big upset losses (to the Dons and later the Roos).  In 2011, the Dees were huge upset winners over Essendon, then proceeded to get totally flogged by the Pies on QB Monday.

This technical lead is not perfect.  The Swans had a huge win over favourites Collingwood in R9 this year and followed it up with a comfortable victory over the Dons next week.  What it does do is make the variance EXTREME!

A small chance of rain!

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: COLL + 15

Current Form:   COLL + 4

Team Changes:  COLL + 2

Psychological:    ADEL + 8

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     ADEL + 1

Total:     Pies by 30 points
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.18 (but ADEL at 4.90 is tempting)

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 30 points and they won by 27.  Analysis was reasonably good in this instance – not so much because the final margin was close.  More so because of the extreme variance call.  This was vindicated by the fact that the Pies went from 25 points down at QT to 25 points up late in 3Q; then to have their lead whittled down to 2 points before drawing away to win by 27.  The Crows were hampered somewhat by the injury to Dangerfield (who played out the game – but with restrictions).  In the end, the tip was right and the right rein was pulled in terms of the Accumulator.




The Hawks
As a rule, the Hawks usually bounce back well after losses to Geelong. They have won the last 6 and more often than not outperform expectations.

But what’s the story with Sewell?  Yes, his numbers weren’t great last week.  But few expected his omission – maybe he may come in as a late inclusion?  Maybe a small niggle??

It’s still a bit difficult to work out Port.  Maybe they have got teams at the right time after the bye; or perhaps they have improved greatly.  This will be the first big test for them.  Both Port and Hawthorn had the bye in R11 and so this match is not affected by any unusual length of time between games.  Port’s last three opponents (Swans, Pies and Dons) all had a minimum 11 day break prior to playing Port.

It is tempting to select the Hawks as a cert, but the uncertainty about how to rate Port prevents this from happening

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 15

Current Form:   HAW + 1

Team Changes:  HAW + 3

Psychological:    HAW + 7

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     PORT + 2

Total:     Hawks by 24 points
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.22

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 24 points and they won by 45.  Analysis was reasonable.  Maybe more weight should have been given to the ability of the Hawks to overachieve the week after playing the Cats. The other surprise was that Sewell didn’t come in after Lance pulled out with injury.  PS:  the late withdrawal of Lance would not have made a huge impact to the analysis.  The Hawks have plenty to cover Buddy as was seen by the 5 goals kicked by both Roughead and “Norman” Gunston.  The other unknown was “how good are Port?”  Maybe they are not that good.  But this question is still somewhat unanswered.




The Cats are certs, but maybe not by a huge margin
See above news on the Hawks after Cat games.  Conversely, the Cats’ form after playing the Hawks has been patchy.
In R2, they fell over the line against the Roos.
In R3 2012, they lost to the Roos in an upset.
In R20, 2012, they lost to the Eagles.
They won all 3 such games in 2011.
In R3, 2010, they lost to the Dockers in an upset.
Similarly, they lost to the Crows in an upset in R16, 2010.

And, of course, they lose Christensen and Enright along with Corey.  Varcoe comes in after only one game in the VFL and is likely to be underdone.  None of this is going to make them vulnerable this weekend.

The Dees are now competitive, but it may mean that a 15 goal margin is unlikely.  While the Swans may have kicked themselves out of a bigger win last week, the Dees did fight back well late.

Frawley went off last week with hamstring tightness (as a precaution) and has been selected, but may have to pass a Friday fitness test.

Expect rain and wind!

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 42 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 6

Current Form:   GEEL + 13

Team Changes:  EVEN

Psychological:    MELB + 8

Freshness:    GEEL + 2

Injuries:     MELB + 5

Total:     Cats by 50 points and certs
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 50 points and they won by 68.  Analysis was just okay – not great.  It was thought that the Cats may be a bit flat after the Hawks’ game.  But the Dees were really terrible and probably should have lost by more.  To make matters worse for the Dees, Stokes also pulled out for the Cats before the game.  Still, no great harm done as both tips were correct and the Cats were correctly labelled as certs.




The Tigers finally!
This game is at Cazaly Stadium in Cairns.  The Suns are 2 and zip vs the Tigers and both games were in Cairns.  The game last year was the one where the Tigers made 11 mistakes (or pick a number) in the last 2 minutes – finally losing by 2 points.

Will this be like a Kennett curse and cause another loss?  Or, perhaps, it will spur them on to greater heights.  The latter would usually be more likely.  But the Tigers have formed a “good, Shocker, 3rd week” pattern.  That is, they were terrific in R14 over the Saints.  Then they were abysmal in losing to the Roos.  The expected trend for week 3 in this pattern in mid-season is about -12 for middle of the road teams (but +14 for top teams).  The Tigers are currently ranked a middle team.  So it is possible that they could underperform this weekend.  But, as they are 4 goal favourites, they could still underperform and win. 

This data doesn’t change the tip away from Richmond, but the enthusiasm for them is somewhat lacking.  A big win this week would almost propel the Tigers into “top team” status.  Houli failed to make it back; Jackson and Ellis were both named after minor injuries last week and are expected to be okay.  Ivan Maric back from injury and should be okay.  He missed the 2012 Cairns match with a minor niggle.

Tipsters and SC/ DT players will note Gazza’s return.  Since he went out of his way to get right for last week and just missed, it is expected he will be in top form now.  Dixon is still out and they are missing him badly – especially as other tall Daniel (rhymes with orange) Gorringe goes out injured.   Also tall option Day was injured last week and may be a small doubt to play this week.  Note that the Hall coming in is tall Josh Hall (Aaron is already in the team).

This big man worry will cause a slight downgrading of the Suns’ chances.  But the Tigers will not be tipped as certs.

Forecast: Showers, windy & not overly humid; top of 26 degrees

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 6

Current Form:   RICH + 8

Team Changes:  SUNS + 2

Psychological:    SUNS + 1

Freshness:   EVEN

Injuries:     RICH + 9

Total:     Tigers by 26 points
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.24

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 26 points and they won by 9.  Analysis was reasonably okay.  The Tigers probably should have won by more. But the technical analysis lead mentioned above proved to be correct (IE that they performed about 2 goals below expectations – but still were good enough to win).  Some question remains about whether the Tigers were a great tip in the Accumulator at 1.24, but it worked.  The Suns were not helped by Thompson getting injured mid 3Q.




The Blues to bounce back savagely.
The Saints have won the last 4 against the Blues.  This will cause a lot of people to tip the Saints as the roughie of the round.  “Don’t do it!” is the recommendation.  Remember that the Saints are coming back from Perth on a 6 day break.  And, though they did quite well over there, the Dockers looked horribly off their game early.  And some new kids overachieved (Lee & Saunders).  Expect them to be less effective this time around.

Carlton was humiliated against the Pies (Mick’s old team – to make matters worse – and to increase the boost that the team will get!), so the technical charts for Friday night shocker kicks in perfectly in this instance.

The only slight concern – the recent growth in the Blues’ injury list – will be ignored in this instance.

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: STK + 6

Current Form:   STK + 1

Team Changes:  STK + 1

Psychological:    CARL + 26

Freshness:    CARL + 6

Injuries:     STK + 5

Total:     Blues by 25 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip:  CARL ~ 1.34

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 25 points and they won by 36.  Analysis was almost perfect.  The experts had the Blues winning by about 3 goals.  Maybe the ability rating of the Saints needs to be downgraded.  It was known that the Saints’ effort last week in Perth needed to be “downgraded”, but maybe it was not downgraded enough.  And it was known that the Blues would overachieve this week, but their level of overachievement was underestimated.  Anyway, in the and, all was well and the Blues earned their “cert” tag this week.




Tough one to pick
This is the toughest selection of the round.  The Roos were magnificent last week.  On that form, they would win clearly.  They were also pretty good the previous week as well (but against the Giants).  They apparently have toughened up their defence and played both Hine and Greenwood as taggers.

But have they really turned the corner?   They did lose to the Suns up in QLD earlier this year (in atrocious conditions!).

The Lions have the rare luxury of 2 games in a row in SE QLD.  But there may be some doubt on the value of a win against an injury-riddled Ablettless (there is a new word for you) Suns.  Golby looked hampered last week and may be in some doubt.

Meanwhile the Roos sail along with the smallest injury list in the league.  Of interest is that McMahon is running around for Werribee this weekend.

The tip will reflect a “sitting on the fence” attitude to a degree.  Roos tipped but Lions in the Accumulator.

Forecast: possible shower and not overly humid

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 15

Current Form:   NMFC + 7

Team Changes:  EVEN

Psychological:    NMFC + 6

Freshness:    BRIS + 6

Injuries:     NMFC + 1

Total:     Roos by 5 points
Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 2.75

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 5 points but the Lions won by 12.  Analysis was very good in this instance.  Many were very confident about the Roos, but the reasons listed above showed cause for concern.  North actually had injury troubles throughout the night.  They lost Hansen early in 1Q with concussion; Tarrant, Swallow and Mullett (North’s Mullett, that is, not Walker or Maric) all had injury concerns during the game.  But the real clincher was when the humidity reached 90% at about half time and remained in the 90s thereafter.  So once the Lions drew level midway through the final quarter, they were always likely to win.  For those who selected the Roos, it was more bad luck than another example of them throwing away a big lead.




The Swans are certs of the week
The Giants pulled off an honourable loss in R1 vs Swans in R1 this year.  But the Swans were going about half pace in the pre-season; then had games in Sydney against the Giants and Suns in R1&2.

Davis comes back, but looks underdone; and then there is the myriad of other changes.

This time will be much tougher for them.  However, in their favour is that the Swans dropped off late last week.  Given the fact that this game is virtually a “gimme”, they may not be 100% charged up.

Their R17 game against the Eagles in Perth will be in the back of their mind.  As such, the 12 – 15 goal margin many expect is no cert.  But the win itself is a big cert.

Forecast: small chance of rain; light winds

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 42 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   SYD + 15

Team Changes:  SYD + 6

Psychological:    SYD + 1

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     SYD + 1

Total:     Swans by 65 points
Accumulator tip: SYD ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 65 points and they won by 129.  Analysis was just average, but the Swans were correctly labelled as the certs of the week.  It was thought that they may be kind to the Giants (by virtue of saving themselves for the trip to Perth the following week), but the Swans were ruthless in the end, kicking 9:8 to 2:3 in 4Q.  Looks like the defence struggled late in the game!!.




HUGE danger game
Everything suggests that the Bombers would win this one easily, but the technical  analysis SCREAMS out: DANGER GAME!!

Here is why:  when a team is struggling, on a run of losses (in the Dogs’ case, 3 losses R12-14, but one was a horror loss to the Dees) and then they have an unimpressive win against a bottom team (Giants last week), the win tends to ease the pressure.  They often play well next week and overachieve in the realm of 6 – 8 goals.  And generally, the team in this pattern tends to begin in excellent fashion.  EG.  In 2011, the Saints lost 3 in a row and then scored an unimpressive win over lowly Melbourne.  Next week, they went to Perth to play the Dockers.  Despite being underdogs, the Saints led by 25 points at QT, 45 points at HT, 47 at 3QT and finally won by 46.

Also, the bombers lost Watson early, while Stanton was restricted.  When a top team does this and fights out for a gutsy win, they often collapse the following week.  So this is another technical lead which points to the Dons not being certs.

The strong advice here is NOT to tip the Bombers as certs – especially if you have a long run of certs going (as is the case for this website presently).  Those who are desperate may even consider tipping the Dogs outright (for those who are after a jackpotted weekly prize).

The surprise selection news for the Dons is that Crameri hasn’t come up yet.  Stanton was hampered last week, but has been named.  He may be a slight risk to underperform this weekend.

The Dogs bring back some experience in Addison and Picken; while Grant comes back from obscurity.  The omission of Cordy leaves Minson to ruck predominantly on his own.  This could be a risk for the Dogs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form:   ESS + 16

Team Changes:  WBD + 4

Psychological:    WBD + 19

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     WBD + 2

Total:     Dons by 15 points
Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 7.50

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 15 points and they won by 31.  Analysis was fairly good and maybe the margin somewhat flattered the Dons.  A few little things didn’t go the Dogs’ way, but they were their own worst enemies in terms of poor decision-making.  In terms of the technical trend for the Dogs, they outperformed expectations by only a goal (not the 6 – 8 goals as expected).  Maybe the Giants are just SO POOR this year that this torpedoed the technical charts.  There was also some doubt on Stanton, but he showed no signs of injury.  The Dogs were 11 points down early in the last, but were overrun late.  Smith was carried off in 4Q and so they were one man short late.  The Dogs didn’t win, but their selection in the Accumulator was justified, given they were 7.50 in it.




The Dockers, but some uncertainty exists
Both teams are going through some turmoil of late.  The Dockers’ turmoil is more positive, because they mainly have players coming back.

The Eagles keep losing players as fast as they bring others back. And the “ins” this weekend only contain Smith from very recent AFL matches.  Shuey and Kerr (both given a chance to return) are still out.  With this news, the Dockers are clearly the pick.

Fremantle’s sports science guy said Pavlich and Sandilands were “very sore” after their first games back last week.  The latter donned the red vest last week.  There is a chance that both may struggle a bit.  And, of course, McPharlin is a big loss against the tall Eagles’ forwards.

But the Eagles are worse off for injuries.

All this uncertainty makes it an EXTREME variance game.  Otherwise the Dockers may have been tipped as certs.

Forecast: possible shower

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   WCE + 3

Team Changes:  FREO + 1

Psychological:    WCE + 1

Freshness:    FREO + 6

Injuries:     FREO + 14

Total:     Dockers by 22 points
Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.50

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 22 points and they won by 28.  Analysis was magnificent!  Of course, there was always the concern that Pavlich and Sandilands may have been flat 2nd up from a long spell.  With Supercoach scores of 78 and 74 respectively, they did enough to stave off the Eagles.  With those 2 doing okay, the greater skill at the top end and at the bottom end on the day would always mean that the Dockers were highly likely to win.  Remember that the Eagles were missing 2 x Selwoods, Kerr, Shuey, Hurn & others.  The late withdrawal of Suban (replaced by Sutcliffe) was of little consequence.




Best cert: Swans, then Cats and Blues (they all won well)

Best Outsider: The Lions (came home strongly to win – with things going their way), then the Dogs (gave a yelp, but not good enough)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Carlton to win by more than 21 points  (got there in the end)
Dogs to win or lose by less than 37 points (always looked likely, but made it close at the end)
Dockers to win by more than 14 points (eventually got there)

For those still alive in the Last Man Standing, the lines are approx

Pies 28 ½
Hawks 25 ½
Cats 66 ½
Tigers 23 ½
Blues 18 ½
Roos 14 ½
Swans 75 ½
Dons 39 ½
Dockers 11 ½

The recommendations are Dogs to win or get within 39 of Dons; Dockers and Blues to win by more than the lines

Happy tipping!  The favourites look the goods generally; but don’t necessarily expect them all to win.