Round 16



Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 13 July 2012 EST
See chart at bottom of article

Round 16, 2012

Scores after round 15 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 7 and cumulative: 96 winners (including bonus 2 points) and improved slightly from 9,965 to 9,556 out of 72,937 tipsters. Streak:  tipped 5 of 5 certs correctly. 
The streak is now at 10.

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Crows easily covered the 29 point margin!), so now at 9 out of 15 = 60% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  8.76 points for the round (somehow tipped Port in error!!) and improved from 496 to 444 out of 11,853 tipsters.

Early thoughts for R16:  Crows, Tigers and Hawks look obvious certs; Eagles look the goods.

Blues and Dons are the tip at this early stage.

Dees (vs Freo) and Lions (vs Saints) appear to be the most likely outsiders.
Pies will be favourites to beat the Cats in a hard game to assess.

Go to the bottom for tipping table


Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

Blues without great confidence
The big plus for the Blues is that they have a 7 day break whereas the Roos are coming back from Hobart on a 6 day break.  On this basis, they will be tipped as the winner and the Accumulator.

However, there are a number of question marks over both teams.

The Blues had too many ruckmen in the team recently, and now they are down to 1 only in Kreuzer.   If he goes down, they are in strife! They also are a bit short of talls generally, with Waite and some fringe players also missing.

Henderson was supposed to be missing for a few weeks.

But …. Mark Riley on club website:

“He trained well, but … the last training session in [an AFL week] is a lot different to playing at AFL intensity for four quarters.”

Consider him some doubt to play and play well.  Marc Murphy will be assessed as a definite starter with a small doubt on how well he can perform first up.

And was the Pies game a flash in the pan or a turning point?  The assessment of this website is that it is a turning point of sorts.  Yarran looks to be back to his best, while Duigan and Curnow are back on track.

The Roos last match is a little hard to assess.  Goldstein copped a heavy knock in 3Q (a painful place to get a knock) as the Eagles were mounting a comeback.  Even so, Goldstein’s numbers were pretty good for the day.  The previous week they overran a Saints team affected by illness and injury.  Like the Blues, North has improved in recent weeks.  It’s just a matter of quantifying it; and also estimating the possible variances involved.

All these questions make this an EXTREME VARIANCE match.

Blues the tip despite injury levels and helped by the freshness factor.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  NMFC + 6 (Blues don’t like Etihad)

Current Form:  NMFC + 1

Freshness:  CARL + 12

Team Changes:  CARL + 2

Pyschological:  NMFC + 7

Injuries:  CARL + 3 (more injuries than the Roos but marked positive due to an improving outlook)

Total: Blues by 14 points

Accumulator tip:  CARL ~ 1.7 (but Roos almost value at ~ 2.15)


Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 14 points but the Roos won by 53.  Analysis was a way off.  The one correct bit of data was the extreme variance.  The thing underestimated was the Blues’ vulnerability. One big question: was the Blue revival last week real.  It was either a mirage or the Blues hit a huge speed hump.  The extra 2 days’ break should have been a big help for Carlton.

In the end, their height vulnerability plus injuries proved to be their downfall.  And perhaps they basked in the glory of the win over the Pies.  Walker was a blow in that he was a marking target.  And they fiddled with the ball.


Dees in an upset
At first glance, this appears to be a relatively comfortable Dockers victory.  They have been good and have beaten the Saints + Tigers in Melbourne this year; also competitive vs Pies 2 weeks ago.

And win well they may do.  But the return of Jamar (if he plays) makes it interesting.

Last week the Dees had to return from Brisbane on a 6 day break and play the Tigers (who were 2nd up from a spell and had had a 7 day break back from Adelaide).  So the Dees were disadvantaged in terms of freshness.

This time, the Dees have had the 7 day rest and the Dockers are on a 6 day break.

The Dockers are definitely the better team, but the shorter break plus the travel to Melbourne will count against them.

Jamar & Tom McDonald seem okay as both completed training on Wednesday”, according to Josh Mahoney on the club website.  The only doubt seems to be if they don’t pull up well from the run on Friday.  Check ~5:30PM Friday for news if you can delay your tips until then (unlike most of us).  Spencer is listed as an emergency.

The loss of Dunn and Watts will hurt, but the other “ins” look terrific.  But Moloney being dropped after a shocker last week is a surprise.

For Freo, Neale and Spurr on plane but, apparently, not Zac Clarke (the 3rd emergency)

No Dawson back yet (he was a “test” this week). Grover (head knock) named and Dawson not an emergency.  Neither Neale nor Spurr is a likely replacement for Grover, so it is assumed Grover is fine.

Walters is back from the outer, but losing Lower to injury is a blow for Freo.  Stephen Hill, however, will be better for last week’s run.

The Dockers powered away last week vs the Dogs, but the Dogs had injuries to Wood, Austin and Campbell, while Ryan Griffen was still recovering from his round 14 knock.   So the win was not as good as it appeared.

This is another EXTREME VARIANCE game. 
Out on a limb (without Shirley Maclaine) and tipping the Dees!

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:  MELB + 18 (would have been 24 at the G)

Current Form:  FREO + 3

Freshness:  MELB + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 4

Pyschological:  MELB + 2

Injuries:  FREO + 1

Total: Dees by 8 points

Accumulator tip: MELB ~ 2.95

Post Match Review:  Dees were tipped by 14 points but the Dockers won by 34.  The brave tip going down in flames can be summed up in one word: Mark Jamar.

His inclusion was the reason for the tip.  They were 20 points up when he left the field and still led by 20 points late in the third term.  By then, they were down a rotation with Bennell injured; and Grimes played out the game with a sore ankle.

After all that, I still claim it was the correct tip (even though losing is tough).  Some may disagree.  Walters proved a worthy inclusion after a time of penance for Freo.



Dons in a danger game
The record of Port against Essendon is pretty good and the Dons last beat Port in SA in 2000.
Both teams have injury trouble; and the Dons also have 2 out suspended (Crameri and Hocking).   Bellchambers beat a VFL charge and replaces the injured Paddy Ryder.  Paddy scored his 2nd worse SC score last weekend; maybe it was troubling him even before he injured it at training!!  Good news is that Bellchambers has been in top form in the twos.

Reimers was concussed last week and Hardingham had a shoulder injury from last week.  There is some small doubt on both of them performing to their maximum this weekend.  Along with injuries to many others, they are at cracking point.

Port is still missing Cassisi (failed a fitness test this week), Schulz, Gray, Hartlett, Rodan, Renouf and some fringe players.

Wingard copped a hand injury last week and may be a slight risk.

Daniel Stewart and Redden both come in, but the latter was ill during the week.  Plus they lose Butcher and Surjan to injury this week (some hospital Surjans have been labelled Butchers at times).

Thomas returning from suspension is a plus!

As such, neither team can be trusted in the short term.  Both should be much better off in 2 – 4 weeks with players returning.

We have waited longer than for a Fonzie apology to see Gumbleton play.  Assuming he becomes a regular player, he probably won’t be at his best this season, but will create huge interest nonetheless.

This is a 3rd EXTREME VARIANCE game for the round!!

Dons, but not confident.  If a team gets a decent break, it may end up in a big win!

Forecast: showers easing

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 30 POINTS

Home Ground:  PORT + 18

Current Form:  ESS + 7

Freshness:  PORT + 3

Team Changes:  PORT + 9

Pyschological:  ESS + 8

Injuries:  PORT + 7

Total: Dons by 8 points

Accumulator tip: PORT ~ 2.85

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 8 points and they won by 50.  Analysis was just fair.  Right team and wrong Accumulator was tipped.   Still trying to work out what was the go with the big Port fade-out.  Thomas, back from suspension, was poor and Wingard played as sub despite injury concerns.   The positive was that an extreme variance was the call, due to both sides being so vulnerable – one of them was going to crack and it was Port.  The Dons’ “ins” all did well.


4.  RICH V SUNS (in Cairns)
Tigers to atone for 2011
The Suns’ most recent 4 points was up there at Cazaly Stadium in Cairns last year.  But don’t get too carried away with that statistic; or their competitive effort last week against Geelong.

The Cats were not really at their top; and the Suns have disappointed several times this year after a competitive effort.

Despite Richmond being badly off at present in terms of injuries and suspensions, the Suns are almost as badly off.  And they are a much lower rated team.

There will also be an element of “let’s win both games of the Dustin Martin club suspension” in this game for the Tigers.

Moore comes back for them after seemingly not having played since last millennium.

Swallow is a good in for Gold Coast but may not be cherry ripe just yet.

Richmond comfortably

Weather: 21 – 26, rain and high humidity.  This may slightly favour the Suns, but only enough to offset Richmond’s freshness advantage of an extra day’s break.

The rain forecast will reduce the margin forecast, but favourites can often still win big in the wet, unless it’s a quagmire (1 – 5mm is predicted)

Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 36 POINTS

Home Ground:  SUNS + 6

Current Form:  RICH + 13

Freshness:  Even (+6 for Richmond less 6 for high humidity)

Team Changes:  SUNS + 2

Pyschological:  RICH + 11

Injuries:  SUNS + 12

Total: Tigers by 40 points (reduced to 30 due to rain forecast) and certs

Accumulator tip: RICH ~ 1.15

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 30 points but the Suns won by 2.  Analysis was way off here, but life was made harder by the late withdrawals of Ivan Maric and Griffiths.  The Tigers surely would have won with Maric in the team.  Had we had any inkling of this, the Tigers would still have been tipped but not as certs.

As for the cert tip, SORRY!!!! A reasonable run of certs now broken (but many may have gone down with us).  Would Maric have been withdrawn against a final 8 contender??

Nonetheless, the Suns have improved and deserve some credit.  The scoring patterns of this game is eerily similar to the (in)famous 1999 Dons Blues prelim.  More on this in R17 previews (important technical data).  Suffice to say that the Dons appeared to be slowing down late in the game to save themselves for the following week back in 1999.  Maybe Richmond did the same thing.  The Tigers were a rotation short for a good part of the last half.


Pies to win, but with doubts
Chris Scott was extremely confident of beating the Pies after 2 ordinary efforts against lowly opposition in R14 and R15.

There is still no Pods and Bartel is out suspended (to match Wellingham’s holiday)

All is quiet on Dale Thomas, meaning he may be a late withdrawal.

Didak not yet back yet either.  The assessment on Pendles is that he will definitely play and do well, but not be in the very best.

It appears that the Cats manufactured their downers against Port and the Suns by arranging a holiday in QLD (why would any Geelong person want to go THERE in July?) immediately after the Port match.  They were very ordinary in both games.

This week, they are aping Collingwood by bringing in 2 first gamers (Sheringham and grandson of 1963 premiership player Peter Walker – Josh Walker) for a huge match.  The Pies brought in Jamie Elliott and Marley Williams for their R9 upset win against the Crows.

Elliott came on late as the sub, while Williams acquitted himself very well.

Probably one newcomer will have the green vest on for Geelong, but they cannot both afford to have shockers.  The other big query is how well the Cats come back from their trip up north.  Without doubt, their form will improve this week; but by how much??

It puts enough doubt into the equation to be not overly confident about the Pies

Significant changes from R8 clash (in which the Pies snuck home.  The Cats wasted forward 50 entries in 4Q that night, while the Pies lost Swan and Reid late in the game)

In: Christensen, Scarlett

Out: Bartel, Podsiadly


In:  Brown

Out: Didak, Wellingham

The data above points to a close tussle.  I don’t normally make comparisons like this due to the inherent chaos factor in individual results.  But it gives another perspective.

The result may have too much made of it.  The Cats won’t be gone if they lose nor the Pies gone if they lose.  This website wrote off Geelong’s chances of back to back flags 5 minutes after last year’s grand final and predicted them to finish 7th.  And it predicted a Pie flag, but that was before their horror run of long term injuries.

The weather may ever so slightly favour Geelong

Forecast: showers and freezing

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  COLL + 1

Freshness:  COLL + 6

Team Changes:  GEEL + 2

Pyschological:  GEEL + 8

Injuries:  COLL + 7

Total: Pies by 10 points

Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 2.55 (but almost went the Pies at 1.52; it’s a virtual 50/50 split)

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 10 points and they won by 31.  Analysis was just average.  Maybe the “Friday night embarrassment” factor was slightly underrated.  The other news was that Thomas trained well on Friday and did well.

The Cats were coming home from a “holiday” and took a quarter or so to get into the game.  Thereafter, the game was even, but already gone.  For those changing tips, a fit Dale Thomas would have been just enough to make Collingwood the Accumulator tip (worth about an extra 6 – 9 points).   Harry Taylor, back from family leave, looked a little rusty at times.  Bad kicking is bad footy and the Cats missed some gettable shots.



Lions in another upset

The fact that Brendan Goddard and Jack Steven are injured makes the Lions a reasonable tip.

The Lions managed to beat the Eagles in Brisbane not so long ago.

In fact, their form is reasonable, even if they got flogged away by the Swans and Hawks recently.

To make matters for the Saints, the humidity is tipped to be > 90% on Saturday.  Given the humidity, the first half is critical.  For the Saints to win, they may need to establish a reasonable half-time lead.  The humidity tends to sap the energy of Victorians as games progress.

Black is training well and seems okay.   Maguire was not expected back for a week or two more and there may be some question on him playing well.  If he can play and do well, the Lions will benefit.  The Brisbane “ins” all look better than the outs, who were players that had struggled recently.

Saint Saad had a knee issue after last week’s game and nothing has been mentioned by the club.  Consider him doubtful at this stage.

The Saints were super-impressive against Essendon last week, and have been up-rated as a result.  They must be given a big chance on that basis, but the Dons had a shocker, looked shell-shocked and incurred injuries.  Also, the Saints’ loss to the Roos wasn’t as bad as it looked because they also had injuries on the night (and then North overran them late).

Forecast: significant rain, high humidity

Lions, but not really confident.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  STK + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  BRIS + 18

Current Form:  STK + 4

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  BRIS + 5

Pyschological:  BRIS + 3

Injuries:  BRIS + 2

Total: Lions by 12 points

Accumulator tip: BRIS ~ 2.60

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 12 points but the Saints won by 13.  OUCH!!!!! This was the one that really hurt.  Humidity around 80 – 90% was forecast when the tip was done on Thursday.  It was a manageable 60 – 70% on Saturday night and this assisted the Saints greatly.  Having said that, Brisbane was still a bit disappointing.  Skill errors cost them dearly!


Crows by lots
No need to spend much time on this one.

For the Crows, Tippett named but must be doubtful.  Still no Petrenko!

Doughty shows as out with a hip, but his wife is due to give birth this week.

The Giants have a minimum 5 changes, with 5 of the 8 “ins” in the 18 already.  Steve Clifton is a mature aged player returning from injury and the team looks generally better.

Crows are certs, but not 1005 certain of them winning by 12 goals as the experts predict.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 48 POINTS

Home Ground:  GWS + 18

Current Form:  ADEL + 24

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GWS + 6

Pyschological:  GWS + 1

Injuries:  GWS + 8

Total: Crows by 41 points and certs

Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 1.02

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 41 points and they won by 119.  Analysis was reasonable here.  The margin was under the experts tip of ~70 but they blew this away late in the match.  The Giants will mark the suns match as the one to gear up for now.

Little harm done as the 2 tips were correct.


No Buddy, but still too good
The Dogs are struggling, but are in a rebuilding phase

Cooney is still out.  They have lost 3 through injuries this week.

The Hawks are much higher rated and, with better form, looks to be certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 42 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  HAW + 25

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  WBD + 1

Pyschological:  WBD +12

Injuries:  HAW + 5

Total: Hawks by 59 points and certs

Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.05

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 59 points and they won by 72.  Analysis was almost spot on; closer than the experts who went ~ 8 goals.  Not much more needs to be said.


Eagles probably
The Eagles were going to be tipped confidently.  But suspensions to Lynch + Shuey and also an injury to Hill opens the door for the Swans.  Waters is out for several weeks for West Coast.

And while the Eagles are battling to get their best team on the field, the Swans’ injury list is shrinking.

Sydney is one of the best travellers to Perth and one of a few teams to beat the Eagles in a final in Perth.

There was some talk of Mumford being sore last week.  He would probably need to perform well in order for the Swans to win, although Pyke has been pretty good lately.

The Eagles’ win over North last week was good, but a little hard to assess.  Did the Roos stop, or were the Eagles too good.

Forecast: possible shower

Eagles are the tip, but Swans a chance.  Memories of nail-biting Eagles / Swans games (regardless of venue) come to mind.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  WDCE + 18

Current Form:  WCE + 5

Freshness:  SYD + 6

Team Changes: SYD + 6

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  SYD + 4

Total: Eagles by 13 points

Accumulator tip: WCE ~ 1.62 (but hard to pick as SYD ~ 2.3 also appeals)

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 13 points but the Swans won by 52.  Analysis was waaay off here.  The Eagles were looking a tad vulnerable, but this margin was a big surprise.  Anyway, the Swans were able to exploit that vulnerability to the full extent (unlike North several weeks earlier in Perth).  The Swans were slightly downplayed due to doubts on Mumford’s fitness, but he seemed fine.  More notes may be added here as the dust settles on this game.


Best cert: Hawks (never in doubt), then Crows (never in doubt) and Tigers (OUCH!!)

Best Outsider Dees, then Lions and Port (all three lost!! Only Lions went close, but Dees had excuses)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Not the ideal week to do this, but the Lions to win or get within 9 points of the Saints in wet and humid conditions. (OUCH!! This looked to be in the bag until late in the final quarter)

Happy tipping!  This is a week where you may be able to make ground on the leaders.   There are number of favourites who look vulnerable.  It’s just picking the right ones.  I have gone for 2 significant outsiders as outright tips.  This is a rare occurrence.





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