Round 17, 2013

Round 17, 2013

Scores after round 16 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.

Tips correct: 8 for a score of 102 (100 real winners +2 bonus points) and slightly improved from 17,212 to 16,569 out of 66,638 tipsters.

Accumulator: 11.25 (excellent) for a total of 122.80 and improved from 3,283 to 2,631 out of 11,799 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated in R14

NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 3 of 3 certs correctly – streak now up to 18 (with Cats, Blues and Swans winning nicely).  Improved from 5,727 to 2,915 out of 62,010 tipsters.

50/50 tips: 3 out of 3 correct for the round
Right:  The Blues to win by over 21 points
The Dogs to win or lose by less than 37 points
The Dockers to win by over 14 points
so now at 18 out of 35 = 51% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R17:  The best certs appear to be the Dons and Hawks (no surprise there).  Then the Pies and Cats look the goods (without being total certs at this stage).  The Roos are slightly favoured for Friday night.  The Saints, Tigers, Dees and Eagles are all outsiders with some sort of chance.  This is a very tough week to tip!

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:
1 NMFC V CARL   NMFC 23     EXTREME   a chance
2 HAW V WBD      HAW 56       HIGH           no hope
3 SUNS V COLL    COLL 18      EXTREME   a small chance
4 GWS V ESS       ESS 40        HIGH           no hope
5 MELB V BRIS    BRIS 30       HIGH           a tiny chance
6  STK V PORT     STK 11        HIGH           tipped to win
7 RICH V FREO    RICH 20      HIGH           no outsider here
8 ADEL V GEEL    GEEL 29      HIGH           a tiny chance
9 WCE V SYD       WCE 8         EXTREME   tipped to win

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions




The Roos, provided that the players picked are all fit!

Many in the media say that the Roos “choked” again last week (or similar words to that).   The only reason that has been said is the repetitive nature of them being 5 goals plus up and losing.  But this time it’s different!

This one is due to injuries and the unforecasted (a new word has been born) high humidity.  It was over 90% for most of the game – especially late.  That, together with injuries to Hansen, Swallow, Tarrant, Ziebell and Mullett (the latter being merely stunned), helped them get run over.   And, of course, some credit belongs to the Lions for staying within touch and not giving up).  The Lions also has the benefit of 2 consecutive “home games” (having played away to the Suns the week prior).  All 5 have been named for this match.

The main doubts are on Mullett (ankle is recovering but they will check him again Friday morning) and Hansen (has one more concussion test to pass on Friday).  The omission of Greenwood gives cause to assume that there will be a late change.

So, if the players picked can run the game out fully, then all looks well for the Roos.  HOWEVER, the technical chart “good, shocker, 3rd week” goes against them.  They won in an upset in R15 (+76 variance), then underperformed in R16 – losing to the Lions and a variance of -26.  The charts suggest that this week should see them do poorly (as a middle rated team).  But the reason this works is that the team is deflated and despondent after their loss (following a good win).  This is not the case here.  In fact, they are doubly determined to excel.  So this technical chart will be downplayed in favour of the technical chart below for Carlton.

Speaking of the Blues – they have problems – technically speaking.  They lost 4 in a row and then had a biggish win against the Saints.  Well, it was 6 goals running away – when they were only expected to win by 3.  Their opponents had to come back from Perth on a 6 day break and were brave, but ran out of gas.  The technical charts suggest that a middle of the road side (look up this term in the 2013 dictionary and a picture of Carlton will appear) is likely to underperform expectation by about 3 goals.   If so, a win is almost out of the question.

But the query on some of the North players re fitness makes this tip far from certain.

Murphy is in doubt with a corked buttock.  As this is the 1st game, you may be able to wait until late when doing your tips.  Like North, the naming of Robinson (fully fit now, we hear) as an emergency suggests a likely late change.

The doubts on injuries and technical charts makes this an EXTREME variance game, but the percentages clearly lie with the Roos.

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN

Home Ground: NMFC + 6 POINTS

Current Form:   NMFC + 5

Team Changes:  EVEN (Roos look better with Thomas and McMahon, but are more likely to lose players via late withdrawals than the Blues)

Psychological:    NMFC + 12

Freshness:    CARL + 6

Injuries:     NMFC + 6

Total:     Roos by 23 points
Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.78

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 23 points but the Blues won by 1.  Analysis was fair.  Getting both the tip and Accumulator incorrect hurts, but it ended up to be a truly 50/50 game.  The EXTREME variance call was correct, given the wild fluctuations in the scoring.  A quick look at the Supercoach scores for the players who were considered doubtful due to injury tells the story:


Murphy: scored 103 compared to an average of 92 R1-15

Hansen: scored 78 compared to an average of 69 R1-15
Mullett: scored 48 compared to an average of 76 R1-15
Swallow: scored 72 compared to an average of 105 R1-15
Tarrant: scored 54 compared to an average of 67 R1-15

Ziebell: scored 99 compared to an average of 95 R1-15

With the red ones being those that underperformed.  The ball not bouncing up to Brent Harvey in the last minute (to give the Roos the lead) encapsulates the agony of 2013 for Roo fans.



The Hawks are certs

This game is in Tassie.

The Hawks are travelling along pretty nicely and are a long way ahead of the Dogs.   Sewell is still out (seemed a logical replacement for the suspended Burgoyne), but Will (son of Chris) Langford is the replacement.  You probably know already, but still no Buddy. Cyril seems likely to play (he needs match practice) and Stratton may need to pass a further concussion test on Friday prior to jumping on the plane.  The Port game was a tough slog and players may be slightly sore.  The Hawks are travelling for a 2nd week running and this is a slight minus.

The Dogs were brave last week, but came away with an honourable loss (which could have been smaller, but things went against them here and there).
Maybe they could be flat this week after being really up last week (after the shocker of a start).  Cross is still out (emergency).  The Dogs have played the Hawks only once at Aurora and won there in 2008 (the Hawks premiership year, but the Dogs were a top 4 team that year – unlike now)

No hope for the Dogs, however.  But they may not lose by a squillion, either.

Forecast:  some breeze and chance of a shower.  Not too cold

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 42 POINTS

Home Ground:  HAW + 6

Current Form:   HAW + 15

Team Changes:  WBD + 1

Psychological:    HAW + 1

Freshness:     WBD + 9

Injuries:     HAW + 2

Total:     Hawks by 56 points and certs of the week
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 56 points and they won by 19.  Analysis was passable only.  The right call was “certs” – just.  The Hawks never looked like losing, but they struggled to assert their dominance.  Maybe the 2nd week on the road against an “easy kill” sapped their enthusiasm.   They weren’t helped by losing Mitchell as a late withdrawal.  Also, maybe the Dogs’ form against the Bombers last week was underestimated.  They also lost Brett Goodes late and were a man short late as the sub had already been made.






The Pies without huge excitement

It’s hard to pick the Suns at present.  They seem to have hit the wall somewhat.  But is isn’t a total wipe-out type smash a la Giants 2013.  Sooner or later, they may come good.  A lot depends on the fitness of Rory Thompson (who could play on Cloke).  Note that the much needed Dixon was expected to play, but still not named yet (maybe playing NEAFL). 

A positive for them is the likely high humidity this weekend at home.

The Pies were good last week, but played in patches. As always this year, they always seem to lose someone (Blair; we knew about Young days ago) just as another player (Goldsack) comes back in.

With both teams struggling for players, this is a game to avoid if you can.  Of course, the Pies will be tipped.  But not as certs.

Forecast:  high humidity, cool, chance of rain, light breeze

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 12

Current Form:   COLL + 8

Team Changes:  COLL + 2

Psychological:    SUNS + 1

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     SUNS + 3

Total:     Pies by 18 points
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 5.25 (for value)

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 18 points but the Suns won by 7.  Analysis was not too bad.  The Accumulator tip was correct.  And many people put this one down as a certain Magpie win.   The huge game by Ablett helped; so did the numerous posters by the Pies.  And the humidity was over 80% for the entire game.  Collingwood will consider this as one that got away.  And they lost Brown before the game as well.




The Dons are the certs of the week

No need to waste too much time on this one.  The Dons should win well, even though the Giants’ “ins” look better this week.  Scully has been named but may need to pass a concussion test this week.

The only query is the margin – and know knows which Giants team will present this week – the one that is half competitive; or the one that is waaay off the pace.

The fact that the Giants have  2 consecutive games in Sydney will be a bonus, so the tip is for a much improved effort this week.

Forecast:  Mostly sunny, light wind, cool

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 15

Current Form:   ESS + 22

Team Changes:  GWS + 9

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:    GWS + 6

Injuries:     EVEN

Total:     Bombers by 40 points and certs
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 40 points and they won by 39.  Analysis was wonderful.  However, it should be noted that the Giants lost both Gilham and Scully (listed above as a possibility).  It seemed obvious that the Dons were looking forward to next week’s Hawks game on Friday night.


.. .


The Lions, but no certs

This game is in Darwin.  The Dees have played there a few times, but this is the first time for Brisbane.  The Lions NEAFL team has ventured up there a few times, however.

Black and Moloney are still not back for the Lions.

McKenzie was expected back for Melbourne, but is an emergency.

This game should be a nice win for the Lions, but they won’t be classified as certs.

There is a technical chart for Melbourne.  It is the 2up 2down chart.  There last 5 variances (against expectations) have been -11, +5, +35, +28, -1.  So the graph looks like 2 legs up and 2 down.  When the gap between weeks 2 and 3 is enough (here it is 35 – 5 = 30 and that is plenty), there is a chance that the 6th week will be lower than the 5th.  Given that week 5 was a -1, the chart would suggest that the Dees have no hope.   In some cases, week 6 is a big drop down from week 5.  But the chart trend is not infallible.

On the plus side for the Dees is that the Lions were helped last week by humidity and the injuries to the Roos.  So, in the end, the Lions will be tipped, but not as certs.

Forecast:  Hot, chance of rain, not too humid

Maths (in points)

Ability: BRIS + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:   EVEN (Dees have played there before but heat might suit Lions)

Current Form:   BRIS + 9

Team Changes:  BRIS + 1

Psychological:    BRIS + 3

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     MELB + 1

Total:     Lions by 30 points
Accumulator tip:   ~ 1.18

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 30 points and they won by 19.  Analysis was very good.  The Lions had 2 late withdrawals: Brown and Golby out & replaced by Lisle and Docherty.  The “2up 2down” technical chart prediction didn’t work (the Dees would have had to lose by more than 5 goals for that to be the case, although the late withdrawals would have made this about 4 goals), but neither did the Dees perform well enough to look like winning.




The Saints in a minor upset, but don’t like the game at all

Port are following a typical pattern of a low to mid team trying to match it with the big boys.  They have played (in the past 4 rounds) Sydney (upset win), Collingwood (upset win), Dons (honest loss) and the Hawks (another loss).  What everyone now expects, since they have been highly competitive, is for them to account for the Saints (even in Melbourne).  Often what happens is that the team underperforms once they meet a minion.  And the Saints now qualify.

The Saints also have a few excuses last week.  Firstly, they came back from the west on a 6 day break.  And the whole world fired up the Blues for the clash (after Carlton was ordinary the previous Friday night against Mick’s old team the Pies).

The concern is that the Saints are a very poor team this year and cannot be trusted with any certainty.  Perhaps Ken Hinkley can get his team up after last week’s disappointment. 

Maths (in points)

Ability: PORT + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: STK + 18

Current Form:   PORT + 1

Team Changes:  PORT + 1

Psychological:   PORT + 1

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     STK + 2

Total:     Saints by 11 points
Accumulator tip:  STK ~ 2.1

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 11 points but Port won by 5.  Analysis was reasonable, but the result was cruel.  Bad news was that the variance should have been labelled as EXTREME.  This was considered but the HIGH was used instead.  It should have been extreme due to the fact that Port were meeting the Saints on the back of huge games against top 8 teams – combined with the lack of trust about the Saints.  The wild fluctuations in the game reflected an extreme variance pattern.  It is a bad feeling to pick an outsider and have them rolled by less than a kick.  You win some; you lose some.




The Tigers look the goods

The Dockers have been really good for quite a while now, but have been managing to get through despite injury worries.  They were helped last week against the Eagles in 2 ways:
A: The Dockers had a second home game in a row; and
B: The Eagles had an worse injury rating (of 24 compared to the Dockers’ 17). 

Now the Dockers go into this game losing Pavlich and Ballantyne, while still not getting back Crozier or Suban.  Clancee Pearce may be subject to a test.  This all equates to a Tiger victory, unless the Dockers can bluff and strangle their way to a victory.  Their plan will be to choke down Richmond and then win on the counter-attack.

The Tigers are no getting their best team back on the park.  Houli has been named on the 7 man bench, but may still be injured.

And they overcame their Cairns hoodoo last weekend.  An 8 day break to recover is ideal.  All points to a win for Richmond, without being totally confident.  This is a test for them, despite the fragility of Fremantle at present.

Forecast:  cold, some showers, moderate wind

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: RICH + 21

Current Form:   FREO + 2

Team Changes:  RICH + 4

Psychological:    FREO + 1

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     RICH + 4

Total:     Tigers by 20 points
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.8

Post Match Review:   Tigers were tipped by 20 points and they won by 27.  Analysis was magnificent!  As mentioned, the Dockers could really only win this by bluff.  The most surprising thing was really how many experts gave the Dockers a chance.  Duffield came in after a calf injury and didn’t do much as far as SC points are concerned.  Crowley did well tagging Deledio, but went off to deal with a minor injury.  That being said, the Tigers were never going to lose!



The Cats, but not 100% certain

Last time these teams played in Adelaide, the Crows romped in!  That was in early 2012 and seems a long time ago now.   They have lost Tippett and Walker since then.

The Cats look to have totally got back on track after the slowdown loss to Brisbane after their bye.  Stokes and Enright may be subjected to fitness tests.  Christensen is still out.

The Crows have been pretty disappointing this year.  It was caused by the loss of Tippett (+ Walker due to injury), the tougher draw and the weight of unrealistic expectation.  But they still may have a bullet or 2 to fire prior to the finals.

The Cats should win this, but the analysis suggests that they are not quite certs.

Forecast:  cool, some showers, breezy

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: ADEL + 12

Current Form:   GEEL + 8

Team Changes:  GEEL + 5

Psychological:    ADEL + 1

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     GEEL + 2

Total:     Cats by 29 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.20 (but the Crows at about 4.30 is tempting)

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 29 points but the Crows won by 2.  Analysis was just fair.  For those who did tip the Cats, just remember that the only people to pick the Crows are probably Crows supporters or those well off the pace looking for an outsider.  It’s hard, though, to find too many excuses for the Cats.  Taylor Hunt was a late withdrawal.  Varcoe was ordinary in his 2nd game up from a long spell and a few others couldn’t get warm.  And they butchered a few chances to win it as well.  Maybe this was the Crows’ “Grand Final” (since they aren’t going to play finals this year).  Henderson was an unexpected hero in taking some saving marks late.  Plus the Crows seemed to have more run late in the game.  No reason can be given, except that the Cats played in shocking conditions the previous week.





Tough to pick, maybe Eagles

The Eagles have a 2nd week at home thanks to an away game vs Freo last week.  But they have a huge injury list.  Normally, this would be enough reason to tip the Swans.

But Sydney has almost as bad an injury rating (20 to the Eagles 25).  So, with the home ground advantage and the 2nd week at home in a row, it is with great trepidation that the tip is the Eagles.

This is an extreme variance game because of the depletion of the lists.  The Swans have got away with it in recent weeks (except for the Port game), but this is their toughest test with their current injury list.

The injuries make it a horrible game to tip in, and the variance here is EXTREME as a result

Forecast:  fine and cool, light winds

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: WCE + 18

Current Form:   SYD + 5

Team Changes:  WCE + 2

Psychological:    WCE + 1

Freshness:    WCE + 3

Injuries:     SYD  + 5

Total:     Eagles by 8 points
Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 2.70

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 8 points but the Swans won by 34.  Analysis was not too flash.  Not enough weight was given to the fitness doubts on Nic Nat and Shuey.  Then, when Rosa and Brennan were late withdrawals (replaced by Adam Selwood and Cale Morton), the Eagles were already “over the edge” as far as injuries go.  Then, when Luke Shuey went off early 3Q, the Eagles became a “no hope” proposition.  Cox, the common tators said, looked tired.  Nic Nat was well below his best.  All the Swans then had to do was to play reasonable footy to win.  And they did!  Sorry!!.


Best cert: Hawks, Bombers (both won well enough)

Best Outsider: The Eagles (wrong)and Saints (an almost miracle comeback)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Roos to win by more than a goal (wrong)
Tigers to win by more than a goal (never in doubt)
Eagles to win or lose by less than 10 points (never likely)

For those still alive in the Last Man Standing, the lines are approx

Roos 4.5

Hawks 64.5

Dons 68.5
Pies 28.5
Port 4.5
Lions 30.5
Tigers 3.5
Cats 29.5
Swans 12.5

The recommendations are Tigers, Roos or Eagles

Happy tipping!  This is a tough week to tip winners and anyone who picks nine will move up the tipping ladder significantly.