Round 17, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R17, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 08 Jul 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week: the warning about the Swans looked to be accurate late in 3Q, but they managed to find something under pressure and draw away from the struggling Eagles.  Was it because the Swans are still “flying” and not about to dip?  Or was it due to the Eagles losing Rosa AFTER the sub had been made?  A good case could be made both ways, but the nod will be given the Sydney – who are maintaining their winning run with style.  And the Tigers were, indeed, certs – even if they didn’t win by a huge margin.  In fact the Lions slightly exceeded expectations.

Now on to round 17: to understand R17, it needs to be noted that R18 is a split round over 2 weeks.  So each team had a “bye” – some team in weekend of 18-20 July and others 25-27 July.  There are 4 teams which have the bye in the first week (of R18) who are this weekend playing teams having the bye in the second week (of R18).  Teams in this situation coming into the bye can tend to drop off in 4Q IFF the game is gone (one way or tother).

A recent example of this is Collingwood in R7 (had the R8 bye) playing Carlton (no bye until R9).  The Pies totally dominated the game with a 3QT score line of 10:15 to 2:7 (up by 56 points). The Blues booted 8:3 to 4:5 in 4Q to reduce the margin to an almost respectable 34 points.

Occasionally, it can go the other way around – but this is less likely.  Another R7 example is the Crows (bye coming in R8) at home to Melbourne (bye in R10).  The Crows were expected to win by 45 points, but the Dees jumped them to be up 7:2 to 2:4 at HT – and eventually hung on by 3 points.  The reason for the slow start in this instance was that the game was considered a “gimme”.  So, instead of the Crows beginning their “early bye” in 4Q, they were already in bye mode mentally as the game commenced.  It may cost them a spot in the finals!

The teams having the early bye who play opponents with the late bye this weekend are:
Suns (playing the Dogs in Cairns)
Swans (playing the Blues at the SCG)
Tigers (paying Port at Docklands)
Pies (playing the Dons at the MCG)

While this information is more useful for those needing to tip winners AND MARGINS, it should help everyone understand the game a bit better.

Those teams most vulnerable to the drop-off effect this weekend may be:
Tigers – if Port begin to get on top (especially with percentage so critical in the top 4)
Suns – on the back of an emotional win and losing multiple players this week
The Swans may also ease off if they have the game in the bag against Carlton.

It should be noted that the Suns are close to forming a “Head & Shoulders” pattern.  This began in R13 with a performance against expectation of -8, followed by a -1, then a +53, then a -20 and a +6.  Graphically, the +53 looks like a head and the other figures the shoulders.  It is not a perfect H&S pattern, but it should be enough to make tipsters wary of being too confident in tipping the Suns.  But their opponents do have 6 days to go from Arctic conditions in Geelong to the Cairns tropical weather.