Round 17


Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 20 July 2012 EST.

See tipping chart at bottom of screen.

Round 17, 2012

Scores after round 16 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 4 (dreadful) and cumulative: 100 winners (including bonus 2 points) and dropped back sharply from 9,556 to a poor 16,479 out of 72,999 tipsters. Streak:  tipped 2 of 3 certs correctly. 
The streak was wiped and is now back to 2.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Lions let the Saints kick away late in proceedings), so now at 9 out of 16 = 56% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  2.07 points for the round (worst score ever!!) and dropped back from 444 to 1,341 out of 11,854 tipsters.

Early thoughts for R17:  The first 3 games (Cats / Dons; Pies / Hawks & Crows / Eagles are rippers and will need more thought).  Dogs / Blues, Dees / Port and Tigers / Roos look tough to pick.  Freo to beat Giants easily; Swans to beat Saints (2nd week on the road) and Lions to easily beat the Suns.



Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

Cats in a tough one to pick
This is an EXTREME VARIANCE match.

The Cats are coming off 2 x 6 day breaks after being in QLD.

Essendon are coming off a 6 day break and a trip to Adelaide.

Another reason for the big variance is the new guys.  Baguley and Gumbleton were good last week, but can they do it 2nd up on a short break?  The Dons cannot afford to sub one of these out too early.  Lovett-Murray has been a sub specialist (3 out of 4 green vests since the bye) and appears to have trouble running out a full game.

For the Cats, Murdoch has pace (and, with a name like like, should be able to handle the Press) but is inexperienced.  And so, too, are Walker and Sheringham.

The team whose bottom end players does best may well win.

For Geelong, Harry Taylor will be improved from one run back since the birth of a baby

I told an old soldier, General Sawness, about all the soft tissue injuries at Essendon.

“Shouldn’t have any”, he exclaimed.  “But in my day, none of us had soft tissue injuries!  We were tough.  We didn’t have any soft tissue!”

But good news on this front is that Monfries appears to be right, and Winderlich too (but he gets another week in the 2s).

The Dons win over Port was great, especially the way they pulled away.  But it is tough to assess a win by one depleted team over another.

Maths (in points)

Ability:   Even

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  ESS + 7

Freshness:  GEEL + 2

Team Changes:  ESS + 2

Pyschological:  GEEL + 9

Injuries: ESS  +  1

Total: Cats by 1 point

Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 2.00



Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 1 point and they won by 67.  Analysis was a long way off in points (66 off), but good in other ways.

Firstly, the correct team (std + Accumulator) was tipped.   Next, you were warned that it was an EXTREME VARIANCE game – so whoever got a break was a chance to win BIIIG!  The Cats have been ordinary early in games but, for once, did very well early.  Chris Scott was “extremely confident” before the Pies game.  He appears to have been one week too early.


Hawks probably
The winner of this one may become flag favourite.

The Hawks and Pies currently have similar injury worries (with the Hawks more likely to get some back in the near future).  Herein lies the reason for tipping the Hawks.  Hawthorn’s bottom end players (Puopolo, Bruest, Cheney, Murphy) are more experienced than those for Collingwood (Seedsman, Young, Elliott, Sinclair).  And this may help in the pressure moments.

Also, the Hawks are in really hot form at present (winning big without really playing great teams recently).  Since their loss to Richmond in R9, they have won 6 straight against bottom 10 teams with their smallest winning margin being 46 points.

At last a decent test for them!!  It is anticipate that the lack of tough opponents won’t count against them.

The Pies play all top 8 teams or those challenging for a top 8 spot from now until the end, except for GWS next week.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:   Even

Current Form:  HAW + 10

Freshness:  COLL + 3

Team Changes:  COLL + 1

Pyschological:  HAW + 1

Injuries:  COLL + 4

Total: Hawks by 9 points

Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.85

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 9 points and they won by 47.  Analysis was okay, especially as the Pies were heavily backed into favouritism. The size (and ease) of the winby the Hawks was a little surprising.  But the Pies played in a (2nd) grand final rematch last week and were really “up and about” early.  This week they underperformed by about 8 goals while the Cats outperformed expectations by 10 goals.  Looks like the Pies had a letdown after last week.  They could have been down 5 – 6 goals at QT, had the Hawks made the most of their chances, and never really got in the game.  Their injuries may also be starting to catch up with them (but the Hawks had their injury worries as well – but maybe slightly better depth).  The Giants will go easier on them next week, then Collingwood can reload for the Saints.



Crows to out-squawk Eagles
This is a 2nd EXTREME VARIANCE game.  Not only did we have the Eagles getting trounced at home for the first time in ages, we also have several injury concerns (DT+SC players, take note):  Dangerfield (hand), Darling (hammie) and Waters is back earlier than expected.  Darling was on the plane to Adelaide, but take note of any news on Friday.

Also, 6 changes for the Crows (3 forced) are too many, despite some good “ins”.  Although this spells danger for the Crows, they are still tipped, but without huge confidence.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  ADEL + 18

Current Form:  ADEL + 10

Freshness:  WCE + 3

Team Changes:  WCE + 1

Pyschological:  WCE + 8

Injuries:  WCE + 4

Total: Crows by 6 points

Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 2.80

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 6 points and they won by 49.  Analysis was just fair.  The large number of “ins” for the Crows didn’t really damage their chances (although Tippett not lasting long).  And the expected psychological advantage for the Eagles (to bounce back after losing at home) didn’t materialise.  At least the variance was listed as EXTREME.



Brisbane Big
The Suns were grinning like Jaimee Rogers after stealing an unlikely win last week in Cairns.  So, too, was the AFL.  The last thing they wanted was a winless year for the first time since 1964 (Fitzroy).

Teams which win with a kick after the siren have a poor record the following week.  In this Century, the stats are:

Underperformed (often by lots):  5

Outperformed:  1

About average: 3

The Suns (rightly) celebrated like they had won a flag.

It will be tough for them to bounce back the following week – despite the importance of the occasion.

Added to their problems is that Brisbane are “at home” (well, in SE QLD) for the second week running.  Note that this game is at Metricon despite some early fixtures listing the Gabba.

Lions are certs, despite losing Rich suspended and doubts on Black’s fitness.  Merrett beat his charge and is free to play.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  BRIS + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  SUNS + 3

Current Form:  BRIS + 3

Freshness:  BRIS + 12

Team Changes:  SUNS + 5

Pyschological:  BRIS + 11

Injuries:  SUNS + 2

Total: Lions by 40 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 1.33

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 40 points and they won by 11.  Analysis was a fair way off and still a bit stunned that they were losing late in the last quarter.  Perhaps the improvement of the Suns (via the return of Harbrow, Dixon, Prestia and Swallow – all who were missing prior to the bye) has been underestimated.  Or maybe the Lions had an off day.  The 2nd week in a row at home should have been a big advantage to them.  The teams (especially Brisbane) will be monitored during the week to see if there were any contributing factors.  “got out of jail” with tipping these guys as certs.



Blues without great confidence
The Blues wouldn’t be favourites against any other Victorian team this weekend.  Well, maybe Melbourne.   The Blues are down and out with injury and a rumour on SEN Thursday night suggested that Jamison, Joseph and Scotland will all be late withdrawals (to add to the 5 already out).  Not sure if this is correct or not, but keep it in mind.

The dogs don’t really have the talls to exploit the Blues lack of height.  The Blues are missing all 3 ruckmen and also, Waite, Henderson and Walker (who can play tall).

For those who haven’t seen stand-in ruck Levi Casboult – he is listed as 22 years old, 198cm and 99KG.  My assessment of him: he has a heart as big as a cabbage, but lacks polish.  Maybe Watson might do the rucking in defence!

The Dogs are not ideally placed to capitalise on the Blues’ worries, but have a chance.  They lose 3 to injury themselves and are in a big rebuilding phase.

If Scotland or Jamison don’t play (or play poorly), the Dogs would be close to favourites.

The “Friday night humiliation” effect may work in the Blues favour just enough to get them over the line.  Watch for news of late changes if you can.

Yet another EXTREME VARIANCE game

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  WBD + 6

Current Form:  CARL + 6

Freshness:  CARL + 3

Team Changes:  WBD + 18

Pyschological:  CARL + 7

Injuries:  WBD + 2

Total: Blues by 14 points

Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 2.85

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 14 points and they won by 18.  Analysis was very close in the end, but the EXTREME VARIANCE was justified.  The fluctuations within the match helps show this.  The Dogs are a team down on confidence with few avenues to goal.  The blues were down on personnel with a first gamer in the ruck and Thornton as his deputy.  Play the game tomorrow (if possible) and the tip would be the same, including the Dogs in the Accumulator.   The Blues showed some ticker (and polish) to win – doing without late withdrawal Mitch Robinson and showing composure to peg back a 4 goal lead to win.


Port should do it
These sides are both down and out; but the Dees may be more down and more out than Port.  The Dees lost Jamar and Bennell last week to add to a huge injury list.  Now McKenzie is also injured.

Dunn comes back from suspension; Jetta would be expected to be underdone after just returning from a long injury lay-off.

The Dees are 2 – 0 against Port in Darwin, so they must be given a chance up there this time.

Port get back Cassisi and that is a big plus.  But the thing that swings the match in Port’s favour more than anything is the aforementioned injury status – Port’s is improving and the Dees’ is getting worse.

Grimes played out last week with an injury and might be a doubt; still no Moloney (in the 2s) and still no Tapscott (injured)

Rodan and Renouf were considered doubtful due to injuries and are both among the emergencies for Port.


Maths (in points)

Ability:  PORT + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  MELB + 1

Freshness:  PORT + 3

Team Changes:  MELB + 1

Pyschological:  MELB + 3

Injuries:  PORT + 6

Total: Port by 10 points

Accumulator tip: PORT ~ 1.65 (but Melb at 2.25 is tempting)

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 10 points and they won by 28.  Analysis was okay in this instance – and correct tips made.  Not sure whether the EXTREME VARIANCE call was justified.  It was made due to both team’s injuries and the venue being Darwin.  It almost looks (now) like the Port / Dons match gave us a false reading.  Dons underperformed this week by 10 goals; Port overachieved by 3 – 4 after having Pittard off early and McCarthy struggling after a knock on the nose.  The Dees won’t do much good until they regain some players.


Swans to swim on
The Saints get back Goddard and Steven for this match after a game, come from behind win.  They would be a chance, but for the 2nd week on the road after a tough game the previous week.

Earlier in the year, they managed to do the same thing when playing the Suns in QLD followed by the Crows in Adelaide in successive weeks on a 6 day break – almost overrunning the Crows late.  But the Crows were first up from the bye then and this may have skewed the result.  Most often, teams underperform when on the road for the 2nd week.  Expect the norm to apply here and the Swans to win.

The Swans, themselves, come back from a trip to Perth.  But they are flying and should really win here.  Parker was expected to play but is not back in yet.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  SYD + 18

Current Form:  SYD + 3

Freshness:  SYD + 12

Team Changes:  STK + 12

Pyschological:  STK + 3

Injuries:  Even

Total: Swans by 30 points

Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.35

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 30 points and they won by 29.  Analysis was excellent, despite the fact that the Swans only led by 4 points with under 4 minutes on the clock (which justifies the “borderline” call on being a cert – see below in “Best Cert” area).  The concern about them was how they would come up after the big win in Perth on Sunday.  They began slowly, but were able to reel in the Saints, then pull away late.   The Saints blew a few chances are missed some shots, but Swans clearly deserved their win.


Believe it or not, Tigers!!!
Based on last week’s form, it would be the Kangas by 10 goals.   Butt (as they say in Goat Weekly Magazine) there are a few factors to consider:

A: This game is North’s first and only MCG game for the year

B: The Tigers regain Maric (apparently nursing a groin, but should do well with the week’s rest), Martin and Jackson (the latter on the 7 man bench at this stage)

C: The Roos lose Ziebell, while Petrie and Adams must be considered extremely doubtful to play and contribute well

D: The 1999 Prelim final loss syndrome.  The Tigers loss last week was very similar to the loss by Essendon to the Blues in the 1999 prelim (except that, in that case, the WINNER went on to play North next week).  The Dons were hot, hot favourites but got off to a bad start and were 4 goals down at half time.  They came out and blitzed in 4Q to go to the last break 11 points up.  A great 4Q by Kouta and a Fraser Brown Tackle got the Blues over the line by a point.  A bad day for Peter Costello as the Libs also went down in the Vic election!

Last week, The Tigers were 6 goals down at one stage and 4 down at half time.  They breezed to the lead in 3Q and were 4 points up at 3QT.  They always appeared in control in 4Q, but had a well-publicised bad last minute or 2 and lost.

What happened next for the Dons (a year later, of course) is that they had their best ever year and only lost 1 game (God bless the Dogs for their win in R21, 2000, I hear some of you say).  The moral of the story is that a loss like that can possibly be a huge motivational factor.  The time line is different here and the technical analysis isn’t too strong (due to a sample of only 2), but it is enough to assign a one goal advantage to Richmond as a result.

E: The Roos were “up” for their one and only Friday night match last week (whatever happened to “if you thought of it, you get to keep it”?) and they subsequently could bask in the glory of a good win all weekend.   The 9 day break may be a day or 2 too long in this instance.  They could underperform as a result

F: The Blues appeared to be playing injured players last week.  This explains their capitulation in the 2H.  It also artificially inflated the value of North’s win

G: The fact that the coach is still talking about the Ziebell suspension 6 days after the event is not good.  It can become an unwanted distraction

And, finally

Z: The alphabet is so hard to master

All these factors point to an upset win by Richmond.  After getting burnt badly (metaphorically speaking only) last week by tipping two outsiders, I am doing the same this week – but the outsiders are more fancied than in R16.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground:  RICH + 3

Current Form:  NMFC + 14

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  RICH + 18

Pyschological:  RICH + 11

Injuries:  NMFC + 1

Total: Tigers by 17 points

Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 2.20

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 17 points but the Roos won by 4.  Analysis was okay here, but OH THE PAIN of missing 9 winners via an errant Shaun Grigg snap.

Anyway, Drew Petrie was not supposed to play (according to the experts on Thursday) and Adams was also in severe doubt.  Both played.  Adams affected a smother and recover – resulting in a goal (a la Earl Spalding 1995 grand final) and Petrie kicked 5 in 4Q.  There went the game.

Despite the agony of narrowly missing 9, it was clearly the best contest to watch on the weekend.  The validity of comparing Richmond now to Dons 1999 / 2000 is questionable.  But the Tigers’ progress from here on in (where finals are almost gone, but they will start favourites in most games left in 2012) will be followed with interest.

The win by the Roos was one of maturity.  They could have easily basked in the glory of their Friday night big win – and then put in a shocker the following week.


We are Freo… F R E O
The Giants are down and out, sadly.  A trip to Perth won’t help them to return to form.   Freo have a few minor concerns, but nothing to create a huge upset.  You don’t have to be Young Einstein to work out that the Dockers will win by lots.

The Giants have made a minimum 8 changes, including resting Cornes and Brogan.   They appear to be saving themselves for winnable games in R19 (Port at home), R20 (Suns in QLD) and R21 (Dees at home).   Rookie Sam Frost debuts in the starting 18 for the Giants.

Note (mainly for future weeks) that both Lower and Grover are still not back for Freo; and Fyfe was considered a chance for this week, but not risked

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 36 POINTS

Home Ground:  FREO + 24

Current Form:  FREO + 24

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  FREO + 36

Pyschological:  FREO + 8

Injuries:  GWS + 1

Total: Dockers by 127 points and certs of the week

Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 127 points and they won by 95.  Analysis was reasonable; no harm done.  The question is: were the Dockers wonderful early?  Or did they drop off in the 2nd half? Anyway, they obviously justified their tags as “certs of the week”.  They play Port in Adelaide next week, then life gets tougher.



Best cert: Hard to go past Freo (never in doubt); then Lions (fell over the line to win!).  If you must pick a third, then Swans (drew away late for a good win)

Best Outsider Richmond (almost got there) or Geelong (had it won a long way out), but both are almost equal favourites; the Dogs (gave a yelp, but not quite good enough) and Eagles (never in the hunt) are genuine outsiders with a hope in a tough week.

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Unlike last week, very confident that the Lions will win by over 4 goals (ohhh, Brisbane, you have done it again!!)

Happy tipping!  This is another week where you may be able to make ground on the leaders.   There are number of favourites who look vulnerable and few genuine certs.



Game                                Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is

GEEL V ESS GEEL 1 EXTREME Cats a huge chance
COLL V HAW HAW 9 HIGH Pies a definite chance
ADEL V WCE ADEL 6 EXTREME Eagles a definite chance
SUNS V BRIS BRIS 40 MEDIUM Suns have no hope
WBD V CARL CARL 14 EXTREME Dogs a huge chance
MELB V PORT (Darwin) PORT 10 EXTREME Dees a definite hope
SYD V STK SYD 30 HIGH Saints a rough hope only
RICH V NMFC RICH 17 HIGH Tigers are an enormous chance
FREO V GWS FREO 127 HIGH Giants no hope at all