Round 18, 2013

Round 18, 2013

Scores after round 17 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.

Tips correct: 4 for a score of 106 (104 real winners +2 bonus points) and dropped back sharply from 15,569 to 20,590 out of 66,669 tipsters.

Accumulator: 9.98 (very good!) for a total of 132.78 and improved from 2,631 to 2,133 out of 11,799 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated in R14

NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly – streak now up to 20 (with Dons and Hawks both winning unimpressively).  While those tips don’t look too hard, the “genius” part was omitting the Pies and Cats.  Most thought that they would also be certs, but there was enough doubt to leave them out.  Consequently, this has caused an improvement from 2,915 to 1,766 out of 63,322 tipsters.

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 correct for the round
Right:  The Tigers winning by more than a goal
Wrong:  The Roos losing and the Eagles getting walloped, so now at 19 out of 38 = 50% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R18:  The Roos, Pies and Cats look like the obvious certs at first glance.  Quite keen on the Hawks and Dockers.  Best upset chances are the Suns and Dogs.  The Swans and Port are likely to be tipped, but not as certs

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:
1 ESS V HAW       HAW  29      EXTREME   a tiny hope
2 SUNS V CARL   CARL 5       EXTREME   a definite chance
3 MELB V NMFC   NMFC 48     HIGH           a microscopic hope
4 COLL V GWS     COLL 104   HIGH           no hope at all
5 GEEL V STK      GEEL 49     HIGH           no hope at all
6 FREO V ADEL    FREO 50     HIGH           no hope at all
7 PORT V BRIS    PORT 19     EXTREME   some hope
8 WBD V WCE      WBD  21      HIGH           tipped to win
9 SYD V RICH       SYD   19      HIGH           a small hope

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions





The Hawks, but not total certs

The games between these clubs have included some huge margins over time.  The latest was a 94 point win to the Hawks in a 2012 Friday night game.  In the last 2 games, the Hawks have been out of reach by half time.

This year, however, sees a more resilient Bomber outfit.   The news NOT shown directly in the team selections is that Winderlich is still out, while there may be slight doubts on Hocking and Guerra.  Watch for late changes. 

The experts have assessed this game about right – maybe they are being a bit too kind to Essendon.  The Dons have to come back from Sydney on a 6 day break and lose Fletcher + Crameri to injury.

Despite all this, the Hawks won’t be labelled as certs.  The bizarre results in previous history between these teams, plus the slight doubts on the fitness of some players, will make this an EXTREME variance game.  The other factor in the variance call was the relatively poor form by both teams last week.

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: ESS + 3

Current Form:   HAW + 5

Team Changes:  HAE + 5

Psychological:    ESS + 3

Freshness:    HAW + 3

Injuries:     HAW + 4

Total:     Hawks by 29 points
Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.33

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 29 points and they won by 56.  Analysis was reasonably good and both tips were correct.  The reason for the blow-out in score can be summed up by the SC scores of the inclusions for both teams.  For the Hawks, Franklin was 119 (including 8 goals) and Mitchell 96 (fair).  Compare that to the Dons with Daniher 17 (subbed off), Hocking 38 (down on his average of 65), Howlett 55 (average of 81) and Zaharakis 59 (average 84).  Also, it was a huge surprise to see dons players just stand there and watch as Hawk opponents ran past them towards goal.




The Blues with extreme uncertainty

The first game Blues vs Suns was historic.  It was the Suns’ first ever match for premiership points (which they lost by 119 points in 2011.  Their only other contest was in 2012 was hysteric.  On that day, the Blues turned an expected 10 goal win into a loss and the coach was sacked soon after.

The positive for Carlton is that there are now winning by scoring is sudden bursts despite being beaten for much of the night.  That’s how they lost the first 3 games of the season.  There may be some fierce desire to atone for 2012, but probably too much water has passed under the bridge since then for it to be a huge motivator.

Given those results, plus the fact that the Suns have had their best ever win last week, the variance is EXTREME.  One may expect that the Suns will have a letdown after beating the Pies last week.  While that is more likely than not, it is not certain.  They may, in fact, gain confidence from it.  But the Suns are still missing Swallow.  Also, Thompson may be in some doubt after injuring an ankle last week.

How they come up after last week is a test of maturity.  They have had 2 previous upset wins this year.  They have underperformed slightly in both cases the week following.  This time, they will need to do 2 goals or more better than the experts are tipping in order to win.  The Ablett factor is interesting.  Nathan Buckley admitted error in NOT tagging Gazza last week.  Given that it is likely that he will be tagged this week, will it work?  Can the Suns get others to come into the play while the attention is on Gary Jnr?

For those who need to “catch up one” in the tipping, the Suns loom as a juicy option.

Forecast:  warm, possible shower, light wind, not overly humid

Maths (in points)

Ability: CARL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 15

Current Form:   CARL + 3

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    CARL + 9

Freshness:    SUNS + 3

Injuries:     SUNS + 1

Total:     Blues by 5 points
Accumulator tip:  SUNS ~ 2.65

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 5 points and they won by 43.  Analysis was better than it looked.  Firstly, there was the EXTREME variance call (correct).  So the big doubt on the Suns coming up after their huge win made tipping difficult.  Next, the Suns lost Thompson (best defender – see note above) and Prestia (who scored 155 SC points recently) to be replaced by the not-so-famous Sumner and Gilbee.  Next, developing ruckman Nicholls was subbed out with injury early in 2Q.  This left the Suns badly depleted in the ruck.  They have often played Daniel (rhymes with orange) Gorringe together with Nicholls, but risked it this week.  From that moment on, the Blues were never going to lose.  They won 1H by 11 (when Nicholls was playing mostly) and 2H by 32 (when Nicholls was gone).  With 24 behinds scored, the Blues could have won by more.  Oh, yes: the Blues also had a late withdrawal – Bootsma out for Cachia.  But nowhere near as important as the Suns’ 2 withdrawals.



The Roos look the goods

The Dees are just battling now in the aftermath of the coach sacking.  And they are heading back from Darwin to play at the dreaded (for them) Etihad Stadium.  They do get to play the Giants in Sydney next week.  Perhaps they would rather have a big build-up for that game than this????

There one some small doubt on the Roos being labelled as certs is their mental state.  They had yet another 1 kick loss last week.  How will they respond?  The answer is, more likely than not, quite okay.  And even more likely given that the game was played on a Friday.

It is surprising to see McKenzie still in the VFL after being named in the VFL best last weekend on return from injury.  Spencer returns from suspension to the VFL this week.

A small negative for the Dees is coming back from Darwin.  It is not impossible to win coming back from Darwin, but it isn’t ideal either.

If you are on a small streak, then feel free to select the Roos as certs.  Something just says (with a mind that the Longggey winning streak is now a healthy 20) not to bank on the Roos.  Call it just a feeling.

Maths (in points)

Ability: NMFC + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  NMFC + 6 (Etihad)

Current Form:   NMFC + 11

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    NMFC + 3

Freshness:    NMFC + 3

Injuries:     NMFC + 1

Total:     Roos by 48 points
Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.01 (or Dees at 15.00 for the daring)

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 48 points and they won by 122.  Analysis was a long way off.  The experts were marginally closer with a forecast margin of 57 points.   So what was the concern about labelling the Roos as certs?  They certainly played like an angry team, while the Dees just totally played interim coach Craig out of a job next year.   The Melbourne players certainly have the ability to register highly on the capitulometer.  They have done it several times before.  The game played out like the Dees had the flu.  This may be possible, or it may be due to disunity in the team.  For those who will NEVER PICK THE DEES AGAIN, they play GWS next week.



4 COLL V GWS    
The Pies are the certs of the week!

There was some “respite” for Giants fans in the honourable loss to the Dons last week.  But Essendon were going about half pace with an eye on the Friday night game vs Hawthorn.  So don’t expect the Giants to be too competitive this weekend.  The Giants, themselves, may indeed have one eye on R19 (at home vs Dees) when they play Collingwood this weekend.

And just how important is percentage to Collingwood?  They are 1 win and 10% behind the Tigers.  And they sit 1 win and equal percentage with Port; 2 wins more and 2% less than the Blues.  The team further up or down the ladder are irrelevant.  For each extra 20 points they add to their margin this weekend, they gain an extra 1% approx.   While Pie fans may salivate about catching Richmond, this is unlikely (given their respective draws).

Of more concern is keeping ahead of Port and the Blues.  And a big win would (say, 100 points) would give them some breathing space.

As such, it is expected that the Pies will not be resting players unless they are really sore (that is: REALLY SORE).  This is an important note for DT / SC players.  Krakouer has been omitted, but seems to be sore as well.  Seedsman is a surprise “out” with injury.  But the biggest shock of all is ONLY 2 CHANGES for the Giants.  Looks like they are going for stability leading up to the R19 game next week.

Forecast: breezy and cool

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 54 POINTS

Home Ground: COLL + 18

Current Form:   COLL + 19

Team Changes:  GWS + 1

Psychological:    COLL + 12

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     COLL + 2

Total:     Pies by 104 points
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~1.01

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 104 points and they won by 40.  Analysis was waaay off again – even further off than the experts who predicted around an 80 point victory.  What “went wrong”?  Was it a huge one-off effort for Sheedy’s last game at the MCG.  It is more likely that the Pies went in too cocky.  As it was, they had a bit of luck in the Mohr, went off fairly early.  Then (Giants) Kennedy and Hoskin-Elliott were also forced from the field at various times. It may also signal that the Pies have had too many injuries and the long year is beginning to take its toll.  Then again, it may be an anomaly.  The Magpie fans sure let the players know what they thought as they trudged off at half time.  Anyway, the Pies were still correctly labelled as certs, but nobody should brag about that call.

A curio is that one Giant Adam Kennedy started with the green vest and Pie Ben Kennedy later donned the red vest.



5 GEEL V STK     
The Cats to hit back hard

The Saints haven’t played down in Geelong since Michael Clarke was a Pup!  It was 2004, in fact!!!  And, with the new stand at the Cattery as well, the home ground advantage will be more this week vs Saints than against the regulars like the Dogs and Dees (who have to trek down to KP almost every year).

Both teams went different ways late last week.  The Saints came storming home to just lose; the Cats threw away a big lead to get overrun.

The Cats appeared to be a bit “down” last week.  In a way, they may have run out of players – with a few injured and out this week.  Plus Stokes struggled a bit.  Horlin-Smith comes in and is under-rated.  As a co-captain of the Australian under 16 cricket team, maybe he is in the wrong country at present!

Expect the Cats to win this match by plenty under the KP lights.

Forecast: possible showers, breezy and cold

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 30 POINTS

Home Ground: GEEL + 12

Current Form:   GEEL + 9

Team Changes:  GEEL + 2

Psychological:    GEEL + 6

Freshness:    STK + 3

Injuries:     STK + 7

Total:     Cats by 49 points and certs
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.06

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 49 points and they won by 101.  Analysis was a fair way off; and slightly closer than the experts who had it as a 45 point game.  However, the Saints did have some excuses.  They lost Gwilt at half time.  Hayes had hammie tightness and Riewoldt’s knee was playing up.  So the Cats did as they pleased late in the game with fresher legs.  Maybe the Crows’ loss last week was an anomaly!  The Cats lost Simpson, but Vardy was an adequate replacement on the night.  No harm done really, though, as the Cats were correctly labelled as certs



The Dockers

Had the tips for R18 been made a month ago, 2% would have tipped the Crows.  Currently, the AFL tipping website shows 12% are on board. 

Last week’s effort vs Cats was a great comeback effort, but don’t expect the Crows to be likely to repeat the dose this weekend.  It was probable that they were way up for the match – given the connection between Sanderson and Geelong.  With the finals realistically out of reach, getting up week after week is tough.

The Dockers were “on the cusp” as far as injuries go last week.  With Sandilands and Suban back in, things are better now.  With a positive result 2 weeks ago and an ordinary effort last week (vs expectations), expect them to outperform expectations this time.

The experts seem to have overrated the Crows this week.

Forecast: possible showers, light breeze, mild

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: FREO + 21

Current Form:   FREO + 2

Team Changes:  FREO + 3

Psychological:    FREO + 7

Freshness:    EVEN

Injuries:     ADEL + 1

Total:     Dockers by 50 points and certs
Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.25

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 50 points and they won by 22.  Analysis was a fair way off and disappointing.  The Crows won everywhere except on the scoreboard.  Thet kicked 3:8 from set shots and lost McKernan & Jenkins to injury, while Vince copped a knock to the head.  Maybe the large injury toll (plus Pav suspended) is wearing away at the Dockers somewhat.  And maybe the Crows are in an upwards trend at present (although losing 2 talls this weekend won’t help their cause).  They seem to have an endless list of bottom end players to fill gaps when a player goes down.  It’s at the tall and good end that they are running thin.  Despite all the gloom, the tip was correct and the Dockers were certs.



Port probably

This is a game to avoid if possible.  It is still difficult to totally work out how well Port is doing.  The trend to drop off dramatically at the end of a game – and still fall over the line – is not such a bad thing at this time of year.  Generally, clubs that do this tend to do okay the following week.  They sometimes even exceed expectations.

Then there is the thing about the Lions travelling 2 weeks in a row and experiencing a range of climatic conditions.  They went from low 20s Brisbane to high 20s or 30s Darwin.  No they are heading to:

Forecast:  possible shower, breezy and a top of 17 (less wind chill)

Black is still out of the Lions’ team; and the injured Hanley is an underrated player.  Moloney and Golby come back, but are on the 7 man bench, so watch for the final Friday afternoon teams.

For Port, Cassisi is a similar story.  He is a surprise inclusion into the 25, but may disappear when the 25 becomes 22.

The factors above make this an EXTREME variance game.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  EVEN

Home Ground: PORT + 18 POINTS

Current Form:   BRIS + 5

Team Changes:  PORT + 1

Psychological:    BRIS + 2

Freshness:     PORT + 6

Injuries:     PORT + 1

Total:     Port by 19 points
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 1.45 (but Lions at 2.75 is a reasonable risk)

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 19 points and they won by 9.  Analysis was okay and fortunate enough to get both tips right.  But Port made fans sweat throughout the afternoon and had trouble shaking off the Lions.  Brisbane, like last year, showed no ill effects of travelling twice in 2 weeks (last week it was Darwin).  Well, maybe they ran out of puff late.  They “outgoalled” Port in 3Q against the wind – kicking 5:1 to 3:7.  But with the breeze in 4Q, they only managed 2 points to Port’s 1:1.  Maybe, just maybe, Port should have won by more.  They won the inside 50 count by 15 and had 9 more scoring shots.



8 WBD V WCE     
The Dogs in an upset!!

How can the Eagles possibly be the favourites in this game?  The only answer is that the Dogs have been very poor this year.  But have a look at the list of those out for the Eagles this week due to injury or suspension:  Brennan, Embley, Glass, Hurn, Kerr, Le Cras, McGinnity, Naitanui, Nicoski, Shuey, Waters and rookie ruckman Sinclair.  This equates to an injury rating of 35.  This is the worst for any team in the past 4 years at any time.

While Rosa and Sheppard come back in from injury, they are still in doubt as they are on the 7 man extended bench.  And Dean Cox looked tired last week, according to the radio call team.

The dogs, meanwhile, lose Goodes.  But Boyd returns.  And their form in recent weeks against the Dons and Hawks is good enough to cope with a travelling and depleted Eagles team.

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: WBD + 21

Current Form:   WBD + 1

Team Changes:  WBD + 2

Psychological:    EVEN

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     WBD + 21

Total:     Dogs by 21 points
Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 2.90 (huge value!!!)

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 21 points and they won by 22.  Analysis was beautiful!  Perfect, in fact, except for a shot after the siren which blew the margin out from 21 points to 22.  Having said that, the Eagles were not helped by losing Masten fairly early.  Their midfield was already down on personnel prior to his departure.  For those who tipped the Dogs in the Accumulator late, the end return was only in the 2.5 to 2.7 range.   The earlier you locked this in, the better the result, in this instance.  As mentioned above, the Eagles were clearly the favourites on reputation only, and not enough consideration was given to their depleted line-up.  How wonderful it is when you tip a significant outsider outright and they get the chocolates!!



The Swans, but not certs

The Tigers beat both the 2012 grand finalists Swans (R7, 2012) and the Hawks (R9, 2012) in their most recent meetings. 

While the Swans were very good in victory, they did play the most depleted (injury-wise) Eagles team we have seen for some time.  The Swans’ injury rating is currently at a high 20 compared to the Tigers at 6.  this difference gives the Tigers some chance. 

Of course, it needs to be remembered that Richmond’s last win was also against a depleted team in Fremantle.  What is it with the WA teams at present?

Forecast:  sunny, light breeze, mild

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: SYD + 15

Current Form:   SYD + 8

Team Changes:  EVEN

Psychological:    RICH + 5

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     RICH + 5

Total:     Swans by 19 points
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 3.85 (JUST!)

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 19 points and they won by 47.  Analysis was just fair.  It was a bit tricky comparing the form of both the Tigers and Swans last week due to the high injury counts of their Western Australian opponents.  The line-ball call to select the Tigers in the Accumulator was way off the mark.  Maybe the tigers’ win over Fremantle was not as good as it seemed. At least the right team was selected outright – to make it a 9 out of 9 round in that regard..


Best cert: Pies, Cats, Freo (all won without too much drama)

Best Outsider: The Dogs are the best outsiders for some time (they won well); then the Suns and a rough chance to the Tigers (neither really got close)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Dockers to win by more than 27 points (incorrect – failed by a goal to get there)
Dogs to win or to lose by less than 14 points (never in doubt)

For those still alive in the Last Man Standing, the lines are approx

Hawks 21.5

Blues 12.5

Roos 57.5
Pies 86.5
Cats 45.5

Dockers 24.5
Port 16.5
Eagles 16.5

Swans 25.5

The recommendations are Dogs, then Dockers and maybe Tigers

Happy tipping!  This is a week to expect at least one upset.