Round 18, 2014 Penny
Technical Analysis prior to R18, 2014
By Penny Dredfell
Added 15 Jul 2014
While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.
Reviewing last week: four teams were the focus last week – the ones that may drop off late in the game due to having the early R18 bye and playing teams which had the late R18 bye. Results:
Suns (playing the Dogs in Cairns) – dropped off badly kicking 2:2 to 6:4 in 4Q
Swans (playing the Blues at the SCG) – looked like heading for a 90+ point win after booting 10:4 to a point in 3Q, then having the first three scoring shots in 4Q, but only scored 1:2 to 2:3 thereafter (and the extra %age from a 100 point win would have been useful!)
Tigers (paying Port at Docklands) – never got far enough in front to relax
Pies (playing the Dons at the MCG) – were dreadful all day and lost 4Q 2:6 to 1:0 (by 12 points, but could have been more had the Dons kicked straight)
So the analysis was good.
For round 18, the Blues will be in focus. They are first up on Friday night and have three things to overcome:
1. They have had 2 x 6 day breaks compared to the Roos (their opponents, who have had breaks of 8 and 6 days)
2. Their recent performances against expectation have them in a 2up 2down pattern. Their variances have been as follows
R14: -24 (expected to beat Giants by 16 pts, lost by 8pts = -24)
R15: +8
R16: +50
R17: -34
This pattern usually leads to a negative performance in the 5th week = R18, but not necessarily worse than -34; any negative would validate the 2up 2down pattern). Given that the Blues are big outsiders to win, they would need a +30 or better to be in the hunt. The most likely region is around -10 to -20 (= a 40 to 50 point loss).
3. They are also in a “Good, Shocker, 3rd week” pattern with the last 2 weeks being a +50 and a -34. The usual 3rd week scenario for a middle of the road or bottom team at this time of year is a poor showing in the 3rd week. This is because they tend to “believe” the shocking week 2 performance more so than the week 1 good effort. {top teams are more likely to bounce back strongly in such patterns – compared to the others – because they believe their good form}. A variance of -10 to -30 would be usual for a team like Carlton.
All of this points to the Roos (who have been vulnerable against lower and middle ranked teams at times) as being total certs this week, with the likelihood of winning by more than the 5 goals tipped by the experts.