Round 18


Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 27 July 2012 EST

Round 18, 2012

Scores after round 17 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 8 (a Grigg snap off 9 winners!) and cumulative: 108 winners (including bonus 2 points) and improved 16,479 to 12,903   out of 73,053 tipsters. Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly. 
The streak is crawling back up to 4.

50/50 tips: incorrect for the round (Lions let us down again – by not winning by enough and will now be sacked), so now at 9 out of 17 = 53% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  9.19 points for the round and slightly improved back from 1,341 to 1,325 out of 11,855 tipsters.

Early thoughts for R18:  A few certs this week, with the Pies leading the list, followed by Roos, Swans, Eagles and Saints.

Crows and Blues are slight outsiders with definite chances and the Dons are a small chance for a big outsider.


Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10   v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

The Hawks, but a danger game
Based on last week’s match, it’s the Hawks by 100 points. But the Dons do have a few things going for them.

Firstly, the Friday night humiliation last week will provide a huge motivation for this week.

Next, the Pies were up for the GF replay then quite flat for the Hawks game the following week.  Conversely, the Hawks were really up for the Pies game and now have to front up again on a 6 day break.  The Hawks bring back Luke Hodge, who played VFL last week.  Carrying the number 75 around must have tired him out and he only gets 6 days’ rest.  Expect him to wear the red or green vest this week.  If there is an early injury to someone, this puts Hodge on the field for too long.

The Bombers bring back Winderlich after 3 games in the vfl and coming off at 3QT last Saturday (to prepare him for this game, we are told).  Injuries to Myers and Dyson does not help, but Hocking’s return is a bonus.

All this does not make up for the ability gap and gulf in the current form of each club, but it does give the Bombers in a danger  game for the Hawks .

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: ESS + 6

Current Form: HAW + 19

Freshness:  ESS + 6

Team Changes:  ESS + 2

Pyschological:  ESS + 11

Injuries:  HAW + 10

Total: Hawks by 16 points

Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 4.60


Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 16 points and they won by 94.  Analysis was a long way off, but the EXTREME variance call was correct.  When reviewing the discrepancy, it is noted that the Dons had 2 late changes:  Crameri & Hooker out, replaced by Kavanagh & Dell’Olio.  Neither replacement did any good.  The Hawks late replacement (Bailey for Hale) was fine.  And Hodge starred before being replaced.  Also, more injury troubles for the Dons with Davey and Stanton both copping injuries.  Against a top team like Hawthorn, this spells disaster.



The Cats just
Generally, teams which hugely outperform expectations on a Friday night can tend to have shockers the following week.  Carlton have had 2 shockers this year after their 2 x big wins over the Pies on Friday nights.  They lost to the Dons in R4 when hot favourites after a 10 goal win over the Pies in R3.  Then they beat the Pies in R15 and followed it up with a 9 goal loss when favourites against the Roos.

The Roos were big winners 2 weeks ago and then met expectations with a narrow win over Richmond last weekend.

In 2011, the big Friday night winners underperformed 3 out of 5 the following week.  The two who did outperform expectations were the Dogs (thrashing Melbourne R15 then upsetting the Blues the next week) and Geelong (who beat the Pies – when outsiders – in R24 and then comfortably beat the Hawks in the first week of the finals thereafter)

In summary, don’t be surprised if the Cats underperform this week.  But it shouldn’t be through taking the Crows too easily.  This technical data will assign a 2 goal advantage to the Crows.  A similar comparison is Richmond 1981 (big winners in 1980 GF) who lost a key game late in the year, then smashed the Hawks the following week (to prove that they were still in it), but lost to Fitzroy by a point the next week.

Last time these teams played in Adelaide, the Crows used the “inside oil” on the Cats to win big.  This time, the advantage will still be there, but the Cats will have had a chance to react to the tactics used the last time.  Plus there won’t be 40,000 excited Crow fans in the stands.  Otten’s injury is a blow for Adelaide.

Both teams were impressive last week against good opposition slightly down on personnel.

This all points to a danger game for the Cats.  Cats to win, but not certs.

Forecast: Wet and breezy

Jordon Bourke will play for both the Cats and Suns reserves team in the next few weeks.  He can go to the Cats under father / son or to the Suns as a zone player.

Maths (in points)

Ability:   Even

Home Ground: GEEL + 18

Current Form:  ADEL + 7

Freshness: GEEL + 6

Team Changes:  ADEL + 2

Pyschological:  ADEL + 12

Injuries:  GEEL + 3

Total: Cats by 6 points

Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 2.15

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 6 points and they won by 27.  Analysis was okay.  Rumours abounded on Friday that Jacobs (Crows) and Johnson (Cats) were not going to play.  Jacobs pulled out and that had a big effect on the Crows.  Johnson played and lasted less than a minute, but Christensen filled in for him.  Corey was off (in his 250th) at half time.  Walker returned but didn’t achieve much (maybe due to poor disposal to him).  The other plus which helped Geelong was the good output by rookies Sheringham and (Josh) Walker.


The Roos to romp in.
North would need to fall over (or get too carried away with recent wins against tougher opponents) to lose this one.  The Dees have injuries galore and the Roos have almost none.

Melbourne played in Darwin last week and get a 7 day break less 5 ½ hours.  Often the team that wins in Darwin is more likely to do better (than expected) the following week.  The loser generally underperforms.  Watts and Tapscott were expected to be a chance, but both are still missing.

Roos are certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  NMFC + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: NMFC + 6

Current Form:  NMFC + 14

Freshness: NMFC + 6

Team Changes:  MELB + 2

Pyschological:  NMFC + 10

Injuries:  NMFC + 1

Total: Roos by 59 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.1

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 59 points and they won by 54.  Analysis was perfect.  Well, the Roos had one short on the bench in 4Q and may have won by more.  Apart from that, the Roos were correctly tipped as certs and there were few worries.



The Pies are certs of the week.
The Pies will be upset at their poor performance last week and are likely to come out firing this weekend.

Even though Sheeds would love a win against Collingwood a la ANZAC Days past, it’s not going to happen. The Giants are tinkering with their team with the (probable) aim of winning a game in R19 – 21 vs Port, suns and Dees.

The Pies are playing down the “win to get percentage” angle.  It would help them vs Eagles, Dons and Cats, but they are too far behind the top 3 to catch their percentage.  “Dropping” Jolly, O’Brien, Sidebottom and Thomas won’t help their percentage chase, but will be worth it if it gets them over the line vs Saints R19.  The Giants changes make them look better and they too are building up for R19.

Of more immediate interest may be the form of Travis Cloke.  Pies by heaps and certs of the week.

Forecast: Sunny

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 60 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 15

Current Form:  COLL + 21

Freshness: COLL + 9

Team Changes:  GWS + 18

Pyschological:  COLL + 2

Injuries:  COLL + 4

Total: Pies by 63 points (only) and certs of the week

Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 63 points and they won by 120.  Analysis was just fair.  Perhaps the form slump (plus wear & tear) by the Giants has been underestimated.  They seemed to fight it out a bit in the west last weekend, but were dreadful against a Pies side with some handy players rested.  Cornes pulled out prior to the game with a virus and this didn’t help.  Patton looks injured or tired


The Tigers at last!
The Blues won round 1 by 44 points after the Tigers closed to within a goal early in the final quarter.  Back then, Carlton was 15 point favourites.  This time, the Tigers are favourites by a goal or so.

Here are the changes from that game (using selected sides on Thursday night and the important players in Blue).


In: Collins, Davies, Jamison, Joseph, McInnes, McLean, Bell, Casboult, Dale

Out:  Bower, Hampson, Henderson, Judd, Laidler, Robinson, Russell, Simpson, Waite


In:  Dea, King, McGuane, Moore

Out: Foley, Grimes, Miller, Vickery

Kreuzer has been picked with Casboult still in the side and Warnock not even an emergency.  So it is assumed that the Blues are vERY confident that Kreuzer can get through the game.  Robinson was expected back after being a late withdrawal last week, but is still out (important!).  Zac Tuohy is back but may have to pass a Friday fitness test.

King is in, but may be subject to a fitness test.  Batchelor and Griffiths did not come up as hoped.  Ivan Maric is nursing a groin injury through to the year’s end and the fact that Angus Graham is the emergency might suggest a fitness test for Maric (but I expect him to play)

The only thing that beat Richmond was a tall forward target last weekend.  The Blues don’t really have such a (fit) player at present.

The Blues just look too short and too injured to win.  The fact that they are leaving Casboult, Bell and Dale in the team suggests that they have already given up on the year (though not necessarily on this game).

The Tigers have been waiting for years for a chance to beat the Blues and they should make the best of this opportunity.  Had this game been against anyone else, the last 2 losses may have totally flattened them.  A win this week will give them confidence for the Blues game(s) next year and also virtually guarantee them the 2013 R1 Thursday night fixture.
Given the long winning run by Carlton, the Tigers could run away with it if they get on top in the 2nd half.

Forecast: Wet and breezy

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form:  CARL + 2

Freshness: CARL + 3

Team Changes:  CARL + 1

Pyschological:  RICH + 9

Injuries:  RICH + 15

Total: Tigers by 12 points

Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.67

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 12 points but the Blues won by 4.  Analysis was okay; result was disastrous.  Maybe the Tiger letdown from the Roos loss was underestimated.  However, it was another one that “got away”.  How no Richmond player was in the goal square for the McLean kick was astounding.  There were plenty of them milling around close by.  Nonetheless, the Blues did a terrific job to come back late when they looked totally gone.  In hindsight, probably should have gone for the Blues as the Accumulator tip at ~ 2.20


Swans too good
The Suns have close to their best team in for the year this week.  But it’s hard to tip them against the all-conquering Swans.

Some experts thought the Lions looked flat last week (after narrowly going down to the Saints the week prior).  This may have slightly flattered the form of the Suns.

The fact that Sydney pulled away late vs Saints last week was a good sign, although the Saints were on the road for the 2nd week running.

The low humidity forecast will just get me over the line to tip the Swans as certs.

Forecast:  Sunny, low humidity

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 42 POINTS

Home Ground: SUNS + 12

Current Form:  SYD + 11

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  SYD + 1

Pyschological:  SYD + 5

Injuries:  SUNS + 7

Total: Swans by 40 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.05

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 40 points and they won by 72.  Analysis was barely passable.  Maybe the close loss to the Lions flattened them a little.  Also, they persisted with David Swallow (who clearly wasn’t right) for a long while before subbing him out.  The Swans also had their injury worries with Reid subbed out early and Goodes limping off late.


Dockers, but danger
There was much discussion about whether Freo were disappointing last week in winning by 95 points.  Was it enough?  Did they drop off late (having been 59 points up and ½ time and 73 points up at 3QT.

It all backs up my reticence about the Dockers; and why I don’t pick them to make the finals.

Conversely, Port pulled away from the Dees last weekend (to win by 28).  As a rule, the winning team from Darwin does okay the following week.

Fyfe is back for Freo and Ross Lyon tells us not to expect too much.  Broughton, Grover and Lower are still out, while Dawson returns – with a likely fitness test.  Check to see if he boards the plane if you are able to.  Ballantyne was average last week but copped a knock to the crown jewels; so expect him to do better this week.

At the “other end of the scale”, McCarthy underperformed after a knock on the nose.  Similarly, expect better from his as well.

Still no Surjan or Hartlett for Port.

There are enough “unknowns” in this game to make it an EXTREME variance game.

Dawson may be subject to a fitness test

Dockers to win, but a big danger game.

Forecast: Possible shower, south breeze

Maths (in points)

Ability:  FREO + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 24

Current Form:  FREO + 11

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  FREO + 8

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  PORT + 1

Total: Dockers by 6 points

Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 2.35

Post Match Review:  Freo was tipped by 6 points and they won by 27.  Analysis was just fair.  In reality, Port was never really in it – blown away in the first quarter; then only made ground when 7 goals down.

The correct thing was probably the EXTREME variance.


The Saints to rebound
The Dogs looked good for a half against a weakened Blues team last weekend.  The Blues were coming off (yet another) Friday shocker and were probably “up” for this game.  So the Dogs’ form this week may look a little better.  But a little better won’t be good enough to beat the Saints.

The Saints were good for 95% of the game last weekend against the Swans but got tired late.  It was their 2nd week on the road and this can tend to happen to teams in this situation.

Look for the Saints to be better for longer this week and easily cover the Dogs.  Since the Dogs upgraded the pacy Johannisen from the rookie list during the week, expect him to play.  He is listed on the 7 man IC bench at present.

Saints are certs in Goddard’s 200th.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  STK + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form:  STK + 15

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  WBD + 5

Pyschological:  STK + 1

Injuries:  STK + 4

Total: Saints by 33 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  STK ~ 1.16

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 33 points and they won by 76.  Analysis was reasonably okay; maybe the Dogs need to be downgraded.  The Dogs losing Cross didn’t help. Once again Jones starred in the 2s and then flopped in the 1s.  Saints correctly tipped as certs


The Eagles easily
The last time these teamed played was R10 – just before each team had their byes.  The Eagles appeared to have it in the bag until the Lions won with a late charge.  It appears that the Eagles put the queue in the rack a little too early.

This small matter of 4 points will ensure that the Eagles aren’t taking this one too easy.

As mentioned above, the Lions looked flat last week and struggled over the line against the Suns.  They may be better this week, but the gap in ability plus home state advantage means the Eagles are certs.

There is an article about Naitanui getting blocked at centre bounces.  No doubt the Eagles will work on that one.  Getting it into the media was the first part of the solution.

Getting players back from injury and suspension recently also assists.

Drummond has been named for the Lions but must be doubtful.

Eagles by heaps and they are unbeatable this week.

Forecast: Mostly sunny, slight breeze

Maths (in points)

Ability: WCE + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: WCE + 24

Current Form:  WCE + 1

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  WCE + 7

Pyschological:  BRIS + 5

Injuries:  WCE + 6

Total: Eagles by 56 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 1.16

Post Match Review:  The Eagles were tipped by 56 points and they won by 98.  Analysis was reasonably good here.  The experts tipped them by about 6 goals.  Even though the tip here was better at 56 points, the Lions were disappointing.  Zorko had his first average return.  Both teams had injury concerns, but the Eagles handled theirs better. Rockliff had a complex finger dislocation in R17 and underperformed.  The cert tip was definitely correct.


Best cert: Hard to go past the Pies (never in doubt); then Eagles (never in doubt), Roos (never in doubt), Swans (never in doubt) and Saints (never in doubt)

Best Outsider Crows (gave a yelp, but not good enough) and Port (terrible early and never a hope).  Dons are a rough chance (they were shocking)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Having sacked the Lions, let’s go for the Eagles to beat them by over 38 points in Perth (never in doubt)


Happy tipping!  This is a week with a lot of certs, but one or two vulnerable favourites

Game              Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is

ESS V HAW HAW 16 EXTREME Dons a better chance than most think
GEEL V ADEL GEEL 6 HIGH Crows a definite chance
NMFC V MELB NMFC 59 HIGH Dees no hope
GWS V COLL COLL 63 HIGH Giants no hope
CARL V RICH RICH 12 HIGH Blues some hope
SUNS V SYD SYD 40 HIGH Suns no hope
PORT V FREO FREO 6 EXTREME Port a big chance
STK V WBD STK 33 HIGH Dogs no hope
WCE V BRIS WCE 56 MEDIUM Lions no hope