Round 19, 2013
Scores after round 18 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.
Tips correct: the perfect 9+2 for a score of 117 (113 real winners + 4 bonus points) and improved dramatically from 20,590 to 11,927 out of 66,689 tipsters.
Accumulator: 10.01 (very good again!) for a total of 142.79 and improved from 2,133 to 1,853 out of 11,799 tipsters
Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated in R14
NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”. These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection.
Footytips.com.au Streak: tipped 3 of 3 certs correctly – streak now up to 23 (with Cats, Dockers and Pies all winning). The tips weren’t hard this week, so long as you avoided the Eagles. But surprisingly, an improvement from 1,766 to 819 out of 64,512 tipsters (maybe their ranking sheet is updating a week late?)
50/50 tips: 1 out of 2 correct for the round
Right: The Dogs won well
Wrong: The Dockers didn’t quite win by enough, so now at 20 out of 40 = 50% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)
Early thoughts for R19: The Lions and Swans look like certs this week in a tough week for tipsters. It is likely that the Cats, Hawks and Eagles will be tipped, but not as certs. The 4 games that are tough are games 2, 5, 8 and 9 below; with early votes (with less than 10% of the votes counted – like 6.30PM on election night) going to the Giants, Blues, Port and Bombers.
Games Tip / By Variance Outsider is:
1 NMFC V GEEL GEEL 25 EXTREME a small chance
2 GWS V MELB GWS 7 EXTREME a big chance
3 HAW V RICH HAW 26 HIGH a small chance
4 WCE V SUNS WCE 27 EXTREME a small chance
5 CARL V FREO CARL 6 HIGH a big chance
6 BRIS V STK BRIS 37 HIGH no hope
7 WBD V SYD SYD 47 HIGH no hope
8 ADEL V PORT PORT 2 HIGH a big chance
9 COLL V ESS ESS 16 EXTREME tipped to win
Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend
Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark
High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark
Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions
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1 NMFC V GEEL
The Cats, without being certs
The Scott twins each coached their teams to 100+ point wins last weekend. But the thought more in the minds of Roos fans will be losing to the Cats after leading by over 40 points in R2. This was the first of many games in 2013 where North threw away sizable leads. This may be create an extra spur for the Roos; or it may give them Jeff Kennett-like nightmares.
In a sense, it would be cruel to North fans to win this one (thus convincing them that they deserve to be in the finals, but won’t be).
The advantage to the Roos is that they played R18 6 days ago then R17 8 days earlier. This compares to 2 x 6 day breaks for the Cats and a trip to Adelaide in R17.
Just about everything else points to the Cats. Having said that, it is very difficult to line up the comparative form of the 2 teams for R18. Both had huge wins, but the Saints were battered and bruised. And nobody is sure what happened with the Dees, but something went horribly wrong. Last week for the Dees, Davey was subbed off with 7 SC points. Dawes struggled and is now out injured. Jack Grimes, although tagging Wells, hardly got near the ball.
The form line in previous weeks has the Cats marginally ahead. The short breaks for the Cats and the nature of last week’s big wins for each team makes this an EXTREME variance game (one of many for this round), so a healthy winning margin tip for the Cats will NOT translate into calling them CERTS.
Maths (in points)
Ability: GEEL + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: GEEL + 3
Team Changes: GEEL + 5
Psychological: EVEN
Freshness: NMFC + 6
Injuries: GEEL + 5 (Cats have more injuries but their injury list is shrinking)
Total: Cats by 25 points
Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.31 (but Roos at 3.50 is tempting)
Post Match Review: Cats were tipped by 25 points but the Roos won by 10. Analysis was a fair way off. Bad news was the tip was wrong and the “temptation” of the Roos at 3.50 in the Accumulator was, sadly, resisted. The positive was that the variance was labelled as EXTREME. Consequently, there was no chance that the Cats would be labelled as certs. And many would have tipped the Cats in the “Streak”. The extreme variance was due to the huge wins against poor and / or injured opposition the previous week. Then there was the higher rating of the Cats vs the easier lead-in for the Roos with 2 extra days rest over the previous fortnight. This last factor may have been underestimated. And maybe the Roos rating could be increased from its current 7 (but this won’t be done right away). The Cats seemed to really miss Simpson. This is odd as he has only played since the bye. But Goldstein (122 SC points), with help from Petrie (102 SC points) totally outpointed Blicavs (31 SC points), West (28 SC points and red vested) and Vardy (73 SC points, but did better as a forward than in the ruck). The Roos seemed to have a couple of extra players on the ground at times. Old Man Brent Harvey was fantastic and looked much faster than his opponents. They also didn’t get the best of umpiring decisions. Fortunately for the long suffering Roo fans, they were able to hang on this time.
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2 GWS V MELB
This is a horrible game to tip, but Giants without confidence
The lesson of history in tipping is: NEVER get too confident about tipping a lowly team (Dogs last week was an unusual exception). This lesson is certainly true for this game.
For months now, most of us haven’t been taking any interest in GWS at all. Suddenly, it is crucial for our tipping that we have some idea about how they are travelling.
The Giants are winless and favourites, while the Dees have only beaten the Giants (in Melbourne) and fell over the line against the Dogs. Both have a percentage under 40% as late as at the end of R18. As a comparison, in many years the lowest % of any team at year’s end is over 70%.
Their performances have been so poor this year that any half reasonable team can just chalk up a win for a game against either of them. This, then, makes form comparison all the more difficult. Some teams, like the Swans vs GWS R16 and the Roos last week vs the Dees, go all out for the big kill. Others, like the Pies last week vs Giants and Swans R15 vs Dees, are happy to cruise to a comfortable (but unimpressive) win – saving their big efforts for more highly rated opponents.
One question that has to be asked of the Dees is: how keen are they to have Neil Craig as coach next year. While he is the most respectful of all the coaches when doing media interviews, his systems may not necessarily gel with the players. And a loss this weekend would all but kill off any hope he has to coach.
Conversely, the Dees may fire up to avoid the ignominy of being beaten by the Giants.
The excuses are endless if one tips a loser in this game. Anyway, the Giants look a little better with Brogan in the team for the past 2 games (having missed R9-16 inclusive). Also playing both was Whiley (not great stats but did a fair job tagging Heppell; then kept Pendles to his lowest SC score for the whole year!!). Ex Melbourne player Scully was KO’d early in their R16 shocker against the Swans and missed R17, but was quite good last week. This tends to suggest a win to GWS.
Maybe the Dees didn’t recover from their R17 trip to Darwin when they played the Roos last week!?! And losing the experience of both Frawley + Dawes at once doesn’t help.
But, with both teams being SO unreliable, this has to be an EXTREME variance game!! And the “cheats way out” will be used in tipping – the favourites to win and the outsiders in the Accumulator!
Forecast: Fine, some breeze
Maths (in points)
Ability: MELB + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: GWS + 15
Current Form: GWS + 3
Team Changes: MELB + 2
Psychological: EVEN (but SO hard to know)
Freshness: GWS + 3
Injuries: GWS + 6
Total: Giants by 7 points
Accumulator tip: MELB ~ 2.20
Post Match Review: Giants were tipped by 7 points and they won by 37. Analysis was reasonable. The “wimpy’ tip of Giants to win and Dees in the Accumulator meant that something had to be correct. The more pleasing aspect was the EXTREME variance call – which was correct in a game that many expected to go down to the wire. The in of Whitfield was huge with 141 SC points. Once again Whiley (see above) did a good tagging job and this time kept Sylvia quiet. It is unlikely that either team will be tipped again this year.
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3 HAW V RICH
The Hawks, but not quite certs
On afl.com.au this week, Luke Hodge spoke about getting towelled up by the Tigers when they last met (R9, 2012 and a 62 point loss). The loss actually stunned the Hawks into a brilliant run of form which eventually took them oh so close to a flag.
With that in the minds of Hodge and others, it is very unlikely that they are going to just chalk this one down as a win before they run onto the ground.
But the evidence suggests that the Hawks deserve to be strong favourites. They were close to their best ever form last week vs the Bombers. At the same time, the Tigers came a gutzer against the Swans last Sunday. And they get 2 less days to recover.
Having said all that, the Hawks will not be labelled as total certs. One reason is 2012. Back then, they were battling all year to establish a spot in the top 4 (eventually finishing on top, but with great strain after being midfield following the R9 Tigers’ match loss). Back then, their best form was at this part of the season. They were just enough off their game in the finals to be collared by the Swans (after barely falling over the line in the prelim).
This year, they are likely to be in a slightly down phase some time before the finals. Their run home is Tigers, Saints, the injury-plagued Pies, Roos and then Swans away to end the season. Their “not 100% sharp” time is likely to be centred around the Saints’ game. And it is likely to extend to either the week before (Richmond) or week after (Collingwood). And the Dons were a bit down on personnel and, strangely, intensity last week.
Hopefully that explains the small reluctance to tip the Hawks as certs. And also, on Richmond’s side, they will be desperate to be competitive against a contender after being ordinary last week.
Forecast: Rain developing, cool, windy
Maths (in points)
Ability: HAW + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: HAW + 7
Team Changes: HAW + 2
Psychological: RICH + 11
Freshness: HAW + 3
Injuries: HAW + 7
Total: Hawks by 26 points
Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 1.20 (but Tigers at 4.60 is tantalising)
Post Match Review: Hawks were tipped by 26 points but the Tigers won by 41. Analysis was a long way off and both tips incorrect. The only positive was that the Hawks were considered certs by most and this temptation was resisted. It is interesting that both top teams lost after losing a ruckman. In the Hawks’ case, it was Bailey out as a late withdrawal – replaced by Ceglar who struggled and was subbed out. The score trend shows all the signs of overconfidence on the part of the Hawks. They started slowly, got back level, then expected the game to naturally flow their way. Up forward, Cyril, Buddy and “Norman” Gunston all had shockers – with Roughy not much better. Once more, being tantalised by the Tigers at 4.60 in the Accumulator would have been a good thing!!
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4 WCE V SUNS
The Eagles to probably atone
Those who went for all the favourites last week in the tipping were sadly let down by the Eagles. The natural reaction of many is to punish them hard. And with an injury list longer than Squizzly Taylor’s rap sheet, it is tempting. Add to that a home ground record of just 2 wins this year (Dogs and a miracle win over the Roos). It doesn’t exactly inspire a confident tip for the Eagles.
But this week’s test is a little easier than last rounds away game vs the Dogs. Firstly, they are at home. Next, they play the Suns. Gold Coast was either flat last week because they are tired, or because they had a letdown after a big upset win over the Pies.
The Suns have formed a good, shocker, third week technical pattern. At this time of the year for both lowly and middle of the road teams (the Suns are in transition from one to the other), the third week of this pattern is usually a downer. The reason for this is that the poor form in week 2 tends to be more “believable” than the good effort (often a win) in week 1. So they end up being deflated coming into week 3. The technical chart would predict a loss of about 30 – 60 points.
While such a result is possible and would normally be tipped with confidence, there are 2 things holding us back from tipping the Eagles with great confidence:
A: The website is sitting on 23 consecutive winners in the streak; and
B: The Eagles’ big injury list is a concern. Who knows who else might pull out before the game this weekend – or who might be playing sore.
If you have recently been wiped out in the “Streak”, then the Eagles may be the type of risky “cert” you would be prepared to tip.
Speaking of which, the Eagles are STILL missing Kerr and Rosa, while McGinnity and Adam Selwood were available for selection and, surprisingly, not picked.
There is a suggestion from the press that Gazza (slightly quieter last week than the week before) looked sore last week. Watch to see how he goes this time and maybe consider another Captain for your SC / DT team. Bock is emergency this week and may be 1 week away from playing in the seniors.
Apart from the concern over Gazza, Thompson, Swallow and Prestia all return from injury. If they all perform to their peak, the Suns may be a chance. But this is uncertain. Another reason for this match to be another EXTREME variance game!!
Forecast: Fine, little wind
Maths (in points)
Ability: WCE + 18 POINTS
Home Ground: WCE + 24
Current Form: SUNS + 1
Team Changes: SUNS + 5
Psychological: WCE + 12 (see above re Suns’ 3rd week – if the trend is going to hold, this would be WCE + 30 or similar)
Freshness: WCE + 3
Injuries: SUNS + 24
Total: Eagles by 27 points
Accumulator tip: WCE ~ 1.42 (Suns at 2.90 not enough to tempt)
Post Match Review: Eagles were tipped by 27 points and they won by 17. Analysis was okay and 2 correct tips (at last for this round). Once Priddis was out as a late withdrawal, the already weakened midfield was down to the bare bones. Usually such a withdrawal would mean a 4 – 6 point change in the margin. In this case, a greater “penalty” was warranted – it took the Eagles perilously close to the point of no return as far as the injury quotient was concerned. So this force was being opposed by the 3rd week effect on the Suns as described above. In the end, these forces tended to balance each other out. For the Eagles, Hutchings (127 SC points) and Wellingham (128) lifted to get the Eagles over the line. Re the suspected slight injury to Ablett, he beat his worst SC score for the year by just 1 (scoring 100 to beat his 99 in R2). He has scored over 150 four times this season with an average of 135! Bock was a late IN and did well before being subbed off late in 3Q.
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5 CARL V FREO
The Blues, without great confidence
The likely prize for the Blues, if they win this match, is a spot in the finals and a trip to Perth in week 1 to play Fremantle. Each week, the Blues are Port fans will be watching each game to see who gets the final spot in the 8.
This is a tough one to pick. The Dockers are the better team, but playing away from home. However, they are undefeated at Docklands under Ross Lyon (4 from 4 – Saints, Dees and Roos in 2012 and Dogs in 2013), while the Blues would much prefer to play at the MCG. Also, Fremantle is just (bit by bit) beginning to get their best team back on the park.
The Blues have hit a patch of good form recently and, with the home state advantage, should be able to win this one. But the confidence levels are not that high.
It is very close to a 50/50 game. And the stakes are high! A Blue loss may mean finishing 9th. A Docker loss could push them down to 5th at year’s end.
Maths (in points)
Ability: FREO + 12 POINTS
Home Ground: CARL + 18
Current Form: CARL + 3
Team Changes: FREO + 2
Psychological: FREO + 1
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: EVEN
Total: Blues by 6 points
Accumulator tip: CARL ~ 1.82 (but Freo at 2.00 is tempting)
Post Match Review: Blues were tipped by 6 points but the Dockers won by 36. Analysis was a long way off. And it was a little surprising that
The Dockers had 2 late withdrawals. The one of significance was Ibbotson out for Sheridan.
Carrazzo was subbed out with injury early in 2Q.
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6 BRIS V STK
The Lions to win well
The Saints have won their last 4 against the Lions, but this is all about to change. The Saints are at their lowest ebb for over a decade. While they have only lost Gwilt from last weekend, there must be some doubt on oldies Hayes and Riewoldt. They were both injured last weekend and could struggle to come up. And, even if they do, the Lions should be able to comfortably handle St Kilda. Schneider was considered a chance to return after good form in the VFL, but hasn’t been named.
Hanley is a surprise inclusion back after a hand injury. He may be in some doubt as well this week. The Lions have had 2 weeks on the road (Darwin and Adelaide) and will appreciate a break from travel and a home ground advantage.
The Lions are certs.
Forecast: Fine, light breeze with humidity low
Maths (in points)
Ability: BRIS + 6 POINTS
Home Ground: BRIS + 18
Current Form: BRIS + 11
Team Changes: EVEN
Psychological: STK + 1
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: BRIS + 3
Total: Lions by 37 points and certs
Accumulator tip: BRIS ~ 1.20
Post Match Review: Lions were tipped by 37 points and they won by 31. Analysis was excellent. Brown was subbed out early and Staker was restricted after copping a corkie early in the game. It was a bit of a surprise that Hayes and Riewoldt both came up for the game. They did and were good contributors. Given all this, the Saints probably should have got closer. They had 49 inside 50s to the Lions 53. And Brisbane won the Supercoach scores 1677 to 1622. All in all, the Lions were correctly named as certs.
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7 WBD V SYD
The Swans are certs of the week!!
The Dogs had a big day out last week when upset winners over the Eagles. The week before, the Swans also easily account for West Coast. Based on this form alone (and considering all the home ground advantages), the Swans are total certs. Had all games been played in Melbourne, it would have been Dogs by 21 and Swans by about 60.
It should be noted that the Eagles were MORE DEPLETED against the Dogs than the Swans. And now the dogs lose Boyd and Jones. This gives them a worse injury quotient now than the Swans. So expect Cross to come in to add some experience.
For the Swans, the inclusion of Tippett seems to be working quite well. And Shaw is in the squad of 25!! The Swans are like the old Space Invaders game – each time you manage to knock over one of their players, up comes another one seemingly just as good. This year, they have brought in Rampe, Lamb, Mitchell and Brandon Jack as others have been injured. Now even Jesse White seems to have come good. Swans comfortably!!
Maths (in points)
Ability: SYD + 30 POINTS
Home Ground: WBD + 15
Current Form: SYD + 11
Team Changes: SYD + 4
Psychological: SYD + 13
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: SYD + 4
Total: Swans by 47 points and CERTS OF THE WEEK!!
Accumulator tip: SYD ~ 1.07
Post Match Review: Swans were tipped by 47 points and they won by 35. Analysis was reasonably good, with both tips correct and the Swans correctly designated as the CERTS of the week. The difference between the 2 sides seemed to be polish. The Dogs won the SC score 1664 to 1637. SC star Tom Mitchell struggled this time – being tagged by Liam Picken. It seems that the Swans were a little bit flat on the day, but still did enough to cover the Dogs.
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8 ADEL V PORT
Tough game, maybe Port
This is really tough to pick. A win may be enough to put Port into the finals for the first time in years. And, of course, this is the grand final for the Crows (who have almost no chance of playing finals). This is also the last Showdown at AAMI stadium.
The Crows have an abundance of small and medium players to come in, but are running out of talls. They have lost Jenkins this week; and McKernan may be in some doubt after being subbed out with an ankle injury last week.
They also have troubles in the top end of the talent in the midfield. Sloane goes out and Dangerfield has returned; but maybe he has come back 1 week too early to be there for the Showdown. If “Danger” is forced to play mainly forward, or someone doesn’t step up to help Scott Thompson, the Crows may be in trouble.
That is the reason that Port will be tipped. But the confidence on Port isn’t that great, either. They DO get the benefit of 2 weeks in a row at home. But they had a few things going for them last week and barely fell over the line. They won the toss and kicked with the wind. The Lions were on the road for the 2nd week running. But Port could still only win by 9 points. They did, it must be said, blow a bigger win with poor kicking at goal.
A plus for Port is a small injury list. And another is that they can tend to lift for Showdowns slightly more so than the Crows.
Forecast: Possible shower, cool and breezy. Winning the toss would be a bonus!!
Maths (in points)
Ability: EVEN
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: ADEL + 5
Team Changes: EVEN (Crows ins are better, but some doubts on McKernan and Dangerfield)
Psychological: PORT + 2 (with Cassisi being better for the run last week)
Freshness: PORT + 3
Injuries: PORT + 2
Total: Port by 2 points
Accumulator tip: ADEL ~ 2.05 (but a close call vs Port at 1.78)
Post Match Review: Port was tipped by 2 points and they won by 4. Analysis was good. For the Crows, there was some doubt about Dangerfield. But he did well, although mainly as a forward. McKernan struggled slightly. Of interest was that Cassisi had a shocker, along with Butcher. The Crows dominated most aspects of play. The game trend resembled an EXTREME variance game with Port coming from 21 points up at half time to 20 points down in the last half of the last quarter, then kicking the last 4 to win. The 2nd last goal, from Monfries, would have had Blues and Crows fans spitting chips. It took an extreme off break (Shane Warne in the mirror) to go through for a 1 in a 1,000 goal. In summary, the Crows were a little unlucky to lose, but also lacked composure at times in the final minutes (like their win over the Roos, but in reverse). While port were a bit fortunate, they did lose P Stewart early. So Colquhoun played most of the game. Conversely, the Crows unleashed Grigg in 3Q and he blitzed while fresh against tiring players.
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9 COLL V ESS
The Dons in a minor upset, but with EXTREME variance
8 out the last 10 contests between these teams have resulted in wins of 5 goals or more and the other 2 were 1 kick results. The Pies lead those 10 games 7 to 3 – which is expected as they were higher up the ladder than the Dons for that period.
One question to be asked about the loss to the Hawks last week: was this the FIRST time this year that the drugs controversy GOT TO THE DONS (with events leading to chairman David Evans resigning last weekend)? And, if so, what will happen this weekend?
If the drugs thing did get to the club last weekend, the most likely outcome this week would be a big effort. The only way that it would go the other way would be if Hird had lost the players to a significant degree. This appears (from an outsider’s viewpoint) to be unlikely – especially with the finals just around the corner. And it is hardly that they are going to be overly relaxed against Collingwood!!
It should also be noted that last week’s inclusions Hocking and Zaharakis looked a bit underdone. The other thing noted was Don players standing still while their Hawk opponents ran away from them. STRANGE!!!
The other fly in the ointment in regard to making a tip here is the “ins” who are coming back from injury. They are: Ball (Pies) and then Watson, Fletcher and Hardingham (Dons). In particular, how well Watson may go.
A plus for the Dons is the “Friday night shocker” technical chart. Teams that significantly underperform on a Friday night can often outperform expectations the following week. As such, the Dons will be given a positive mark in the Pyschological ratings below (although it would have been higher had the game been a Saturday game – 9 days is a bit too long to wait)
Jolly is back in the VFL team this week after not playing since before the bye. They will need him in the finals if they are to go very far.
These many unknowns make this an EXTREM variance game. Having said all that, it is somewhat surprising that a team lower on the ladder, with more injuries and no home ground advantage starts favourite late in the season. Surely it is reason enough to tip according to the ladder positions!!
Forecast: Possible shower, cool and windy
Maths (in points)
Ability: COLL + 6 POINTS (still the better team, but with lots of injures)
Home Ground: EVEN
Current Form: ESS + 1
Team Changes: EVEN
Psychological: ESS + 15
Freshness: EVEN
Injuries: ESS + 6
Total: Dons by 16 points
Accumulator tip: ESS ~ 2.02
Post Match Review: Bombers were tipped by 16 points but the Pies won by 79. Analysis was a million miles off, with both tips wrong. The ONLY POSITIVE to come out of this was the EXTREME variance. It should have been noted (sorry) that the team leading at QT was likely to run away with it.
Did the TV interview of Dean Robinson through the week have a negative effect on the Bombers? The Heraldsun notes that in 1Q against the pies, they were “second to the ball or pushed off the ball”. And “coughed it up, fumbled and their work rate was poor”.
After that, it was always going to pretty much one way traffic.
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Best cert: Swans, then Lions (both won comfortably)
Best Outsider: The Dons are clearly the best outsider (but they are only slight outsiders) (they were absolutely hammered) ; the other slight outsiders Dees (they were ordinary) , Dockers (they drew away to win well) and Crows (just went under) are all some chance.
Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):
With some trepidation – Eagles to win by over 3 goals (they just failed by 2 points!!)
Lions to win by over 31 points (they just failed by a point!!)
Dons to win or lose by less than 2 points
For those still alive in the Last Man Standing, the lines are approx
Cats 22.5
Giants 5.5
Hawks 28.5
Eagles 15.5
Blues 2.5
Lions 28.5
Swans 44.5
Port 6.5
Pies 4.5
The recommendations are Dons, then Lions and maybe Eagles
Happy tipping! This is a week to gain ground on the leaders if you tip the close ones correctly!!