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Round 19

 

Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 03 Aug 2012 EST

Round 19, 2012

Scores after round 18 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 8 (Tigers the one loser AGAIN!) and cumulative: 116 winners (including bonus 2 points) and dropped back (despite tipping 8!) from 12,903 to 13,501 out of 73,100 tipsters.

Footytips.com.au Streak:  tipped 5 of 5 certs correctly. 
The streak is now up to 9.

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Eagles comfortably covered the 38 point line), so now at 10 out of 18 = 56% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  5.48 points for the round (ordinary) and dropped back from 1,325 to 1,842 out of 11,856 tipsters (ouch!).

Early thoughts for R19:  To be added soon (sorry not done this week!)

 


 

Game              Tip    By     Variance       Outsider is

 

HAW V GEEL HAW 18 HIGH CATS ARE SOME CHANCE
WBD V NMFC NMFC 63 MEDIUM DOGS ARE NO HOPE
GWS V PORT PORT 32 HIGH GIANTS A TINY CHANCE
FREO V WCE WCE 9 EXTREME FREO A DEFINITE CHANCE
COLL V STK COLL 22 HIGH SAINTS ARE A SMALL CHANCE
BRIS V RICH RICH 17 HIGH LIONS ARE A CHANCE
MELB V SUNS MELB 25 HIGH SUNS A SMALL CHANCE
CARL V SYD SYD 12 EXTREME BLUES ARE A CHANCE
ADEL V ESS ADEL 40 HIGH DONS ARE NO HOPE

 

 

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

1. HAW V GEEL
The Hawks at last (probably)

Remember in school where you were asked what happens when an irresistible force meets an immovable object?  You are about to find out.

The Hawks are the irresistible force right now.

The Cats winning run in head to head matches (a la Carlton vs Richmond) is the immovable object.

Generally, these winning runs are not given a great deal of weight.  This one is given slightly more because of the Kennett comments.  But when the Hawks do eventually break through, it could be a big win – so keep that in mind.

There are some doubts to consider in this game:

Luke Hodge’s 6 day break from his first game back – great output for limited game time.  Can he back up? Expect him to struggle a bit this week.

Stephenson in for the injured West.  First time he has been the number 1 ruckman (playing with West in his other games).  He will need to do well in this role (with help from Pods, Walker & Hawkins) for the Cats to excel.  Hawks have Hale AND Bailey playing together for the first time.  May work okay, but not sure.

Will Steve Johnson play?  Wait until the team sheets are in if you can.

Hawks the tip.  They may continue to blitz, but just enough doubt to not be too confident.  The experts appear a little too sure, for my liking.

Forecast: possible shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  HAW + 7

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  GEEL + 1

Pyschological:  GEEL + 3 (but hard to pick)

Injuries:  HAW + 3

Total: Hawks by 18 points

Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 3.60

 

 

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 18 points but the Cats won by 2.  Analysis was reasonably good. Many had rated that Hawks as dead certs. The question may be asked: do you rate the game based on the Cats great start or the Hawks amazing comeback?  The answer is: the performance of each team is rated via the final score.  The Cats were given a chance based on pure maths. The “Kennett Curse” was also a small consideration.  It would have been on the Hawk players’ minds when the game was tight.  A talkback caller pointed out the similarity between this game and the 1989 R6 Hawks / Cats game.  Then, the Cats got as far in front as 56 points before the Hawks stormed home to lead by 20 points.  The cats then kicked the last 2 goals to lose by 8 points.  The R19 game this year had a 52 point lead to the Cats and then an 8 point lead to the Hawks.  The Cats again booted the final 2 goals, which was enough to win this time.  In 1989, the Hawks finished top and won the flag.  The Cats finished well for 2nd and lost in the GF.  A repeat is not expected in 2012.

 

 


2. WBD V NMFC
The doggone Dogs are Gone – Roos to win

Dogs coach Brendan McCartney talked during the week about unacceptable losses.  Expect the Dogs to be doing well for effort, but they have too many injuries and insufficient depth to be a chance.  The fans will expect to see them fight it out to the end regardless of margin.

Rookie Jason Johannisen makes his debut for the Dogs.  Almost everything else is bad news:  still no Cooney and Wood, Dalhaus and Gilbee are surprise omissions and many youngsters struggle at senior level.

The Roos are flying, suspensions aside, and should atone for their shock loss to the Dogs in R7 at the same venue (Cross, Dalhaus and Higgins all played then).

Roos are certs

Maths (in points)

Ability:  NMFC + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  NMFC + 17

Freshness:  NMFC + 3

Team Changes:  NMFC + 9

Pyschological:  Even (but hard to pick)

Injuries:  NMFC + 10

Total: Roos by 63 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  NMFC ~ 1.08

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 63 points and they won by 54.  Analysis was pretty good, in getting the balance between the Dogs being desperate to show something & the Roos being clearly superior.  The Roos were correctly tipped as certs.

 

 


3. GWS V PORT
Port to Power home

The word here is NO.

Still no Shiel for GWS, while Palmer has been dropped

There is doubt about Patton’s capability of playing (or doing well), given how he looked last weekend, and Old Man McDonald remains out.  However, the “ins” of Cornes, Brogan and Coniglio are a positive.

For Port, no Rodan (may play SANFL) and Surjan (did well back from injury last week in SANFL).

But Jay (I know nothing) Schulz returns (slightly short of a gallop, perhaps) and Hartlett is a good “in”.

Port was ordinary last week and never in the game vs Freo.  Their late surge occurred when Dockers Griffin and Mayne appeared to be struggling with injury.  Just maybe they were flat after a trip to Darwin (with an 8 day break to recover).

The Giants have been uncompetitive recently, but this is their window of opportunity to shine (with the Suns and Dees after Port).

And they now have consecutive home games.

Port should really win this.  They don’t want to go down in history as losing to both expansion teams in their first years.  But there is a fragility about Port that says “no certs!”  Another thing to cause doubt:  this is Sheedy’s 1,000th game in VFL / AFL football.   Most of his team cannot recall his first one!!

Port the tip

Forecast: sunny

Maths (in points)

Ability:  PORT + 48 POINTS

Home Ground: GWS + 18

Current Form:  PORT + 15

Freshness:  GWS + 6

Team Changes:  GWS + 10

Pyschological:  Even (but anything could happen in this category)

Injuries:  PORT + 3

Total: Port by 32 points

Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 1.08 (but the super-adventurous can get ~ 8.00 for GWS!)

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 32 points but the Giants won by 34.  Analysis was a long way off in this instance.  Maybe the Sheedy 1,000th game was worthy of more “weight”.  Or was it the “sack the coach” loss Port had to have (and who’s to say that the coach is the one who should wear the blame)?  The latter appears to be more likely.
The one positive is that Port weren’t tipped as world certs.  They were the hottest favourites of the round (along with North).  To be bold enough to go for GWS in the Accumulator at a final figure of 6.40 would have been nice!

 


4. FREO V WCE
The Eagles, but a danger game

This is a tricky affair.  Both teams have some injury concerns and we aren’t getting a clear reading on them.

Mayne and Griffin faded out late last week.  Mayne appears okay now, but Griffin only trained lightly.  Zac Clarke is an emergency after starring in the WAFL last week.

Broughton is now out for the year.

Shuey, Cox and Kerr appeared not to train on Thursday; the guess here is that Kerr will miss and the other 2 are doubtful (maybe Cox could play forward with Lynch helping out Naitanui in the ruck).

The unknowns here turns a likely Eagles win into a doubtful (and EXTREME VARIANCE) game.  One thing in the Eagles’ favour is their 2nd consecutive game in Perth, while Freo come back from an Adelaide game.

Forecast: clearing shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  WCE + 18 POINTS

Home Ground: Even

Current Form:  FREO + 3

Freshness:  WCE + 6

Team Changes:  FREO + 9

Pyschological:  FREO + 1

Injuries:  FREO + 2

Total: Eagles by 9 points

Accumulator tip: FREO ~ 2.65

Post Match Review:  The Eagles were tipped by 9 points but the Dockers won by 34.  Analysis was reasonable.  Many were pretty confident on the Eagles, but the injury doubts were the reason the Freo was the weighted tip.  The 3 doubtful ones were:  Kerr (starred), Cox (well below usual numbers) and Shuey (absolute shocker, but tagged by Crowley).  Glass missing was very costly with Pav going berserk.

 

 


5. COLL V STK
The Pies probably

The Pies have brought back all the available big guns except the underdone Alan Didak.  Their week off will do them good.  Wellingham comes back from a 3 week holiday.

Their freshness may be the thing which gets them over the line this weekend.

The experts seem to have this one just about right.  Having said that, it is a little hard to work out how good the Saints are and how vulnerable the Pies may be.

As such, the Pies are the tips, but not certs

Forecast: possible shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  COLL + 18 POINTS (but both teams are under review)

Home Ground: Even

Current Form:  STK + 4

Freshness:  COLL + 2

Team Changes:  COLL + 8

Pyschological:  Even

Injuries:  STK + 2

Total: Pies by 22 points

Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 1.40 (but Saints are almost value at ~3.00)

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 22 points and they won by 6.  Analysis was poor!! The correct team was tipped (incl Accumulator), but one thing that was missed was the Scott Watters effect.  His inside knowledge on the Pies was worth about a goal (maybe 2).  This would have yielded an estimate closer to the actual result.  It may have also caused the Accumulator tip to be the Saints (which would have been a loss, but the Saints were good value at ~3.00).  Sorry that this glaring fact was missed.  Just fortunate it didn’t cost anything.

 

 


6. BRIS V RICH
Falling for the Tigers again

The Lions were awful in the West last week and were punished at the selection table.  The 5 “ins” look better than the “outs”, but Maguire is still listed to play and must be very doubtful.  Pearce Hanley had poor output last week and may have some injury.

Rockliff was just average last week, but had a compound finger dislocation the previous week.  Expect him to do better this week.

The Lions are backing up 6 days after a Perth trip and this is a negative.

RICHMOND players have faced individual video reviews from coaches in the wake of the Tigers’ disastrous loss to Carlton on Saturday.

Midfielder Brett Deledio revealed on Tuesday that individual, rather than team reviews, had never happened before in his eight years at the club.  See full story at:

http://www.afl.com.au/news/newsarticle/tabid/208/newsid/143114/default.aspx

It is expected that this will be a big positive impact on the team and not drag them down further.  They have generally done well after Carlton disappointments.  The Richmond team also looks a little better this week.  Jackson was subbed off last week with groin soreness and may be a tiny doubt, but expect him to play.  Similar news for Steven Morris with his shoulder.

Richmond’s form is actually reasonable.  It just “feels” horrible due to narrow losses (although the Blues were down on personnel).

Assuming that the forecast of low humidity is correct, the Tigers should overcome the Lions.  But not certs

Forecast: Sunny; low humidity

Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form:  RICH + 6

Freshness:  RICH + 6

Team Changes:  BRIS + 3

Pyschological:  RICH + 11

Injuries:  RICH + 3

Total: Tigers by 17 points

Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.65

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 17 points and they won by 48.  Analysis was quite good (as many wee keen on the Lions).  The “individual video review” as discussed above probably had a bigger effect than first thought.  It may have been the biggest motivator since Clarko took away the Hawk players’ mobile phones in R9 2011 and they blitzed the Swans in Sydney.

Also, Simon Black was the sub and is seemingly on his last legs.  Also, Hanley was under an injury cloud and was just average.  And Rockliff still hasn’t returned to form after his finger injury.

 

 


7. MELB V SUNS
The Dees

While the Suns would love to beat Melbourne, they will be very conscious of their big game in R20 vs the Giants.  Not only will they be desperate for revenge, a Gold Coast victory is likely to ensure the Giants get the spoon.

That is a plus for the Dees.  A minus is that they struggled last week vs North even when the Roos had one less rotation for just over a quarter.  And Watts was supposed to be tested this week.  He didn’t come up.

There is some doubt on Brown and Swallow who had injuries last week.  Swallow seemed to be kept on for a bit too long last week, which may delay his recovery.

Last time at the MCG, the Suns were terrible vs Pies.  The experience will help them a little.

Dees to win, but too many injuries to be real certs

Forecast: possible shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  MELB + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: MELB + 18

Current Form:  SUNS + 1

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  MELB + 3

Pyschological:  Even (but hard to pick)

Injuries:  SUNS + 1

Total: Dees by 25 points

Accumulator tip:  MELB ~ 1.33

Post Match Review:  Dees were tipped by 25 points and they won by 42.  Analysis was good.  The Dees outperformed expectations based on a huge 1Q.  They lost specialist tagger McKenzie before the game and Morton in 3Q.   But the Suns lost Stanley before the game; and Prestia early, while Hunt, Russell and Smith finished injured.

This hampered the Suns’ chances and helped blow the margin out.

 

 


8. CARL V SYD
The Swans, but a danger game

The Blues look much better on paper this week (with Simpson, Waite and White back in).   Surprisingly, Robinson didn’t make it back.  Simpson and Waite, however, may be short of a gallop.

The Swans get Mumford back and he may be a tiny doubt.  Goodes was injured last week but appears fine now.

This is the Swans 2nd week on the road (with an 8 day break in between).  This little snippet of information is the one that gives Carlton a realistic chance.  In a close tussle, the Swans may tire at the end.  And they have been up for a fair while.

At the MCG, the Blues would have been a huge chance.  Etihad suits the Swans better.

The doubts (of various sorts) on each team make this an EXTREME various game

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SYD + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: CARL + 12

Current Form:  SYD + 12

Freshness: CARL + 9

Team Changes:  CARL + 1

Pyschological:  SYD + 9

Injuries:  SYD + 1

Total: Swans by 12 points

Accumulator tip:  CARL ~ 3.05

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 12 points and they won by 22.  Analysis was okay.  Mumford playing and doing well helped the Swans.  This virtually put the game out of reach of the depleted Blues.  The Swans would have been tipped in the Accumulator had Mumford’s form been known.

 

 


9. ADEL V ESS
The Crows comfortably

The Dons have too many injuries to beat the Crows in Adelaide!

The Friday night humiliation has been oft discussed in these columns.  The last time a team had 2 absolute shockers on consecutive Friday nights was Essendon in 2010.  They followed those 2 losses up with a bad loss on a Sunday to Brisbane.  But then the coach was on his last legs.   That is not the case here, but a huge form spike is not expected – just yet.  The key players missing (Ryder, Crameri, Stanton and Zaharakis especially) will prevent them from winning this week.

At least they get Hurley back.

The Crows still have Tippett out and lose Mackay, but are otherwise doing okay for injuries.  Jacobs is a cert to return and his absence didn’t help them at Geelong last week.

The Crows’ loss was disappointing last week, because Geelong were 1 rotation short after half time.  Still, they are certs at home this week.

Forecast: possible shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground: ADEL + 18

Current Form:  ADEL + 15

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  ESS + 2

Pyschological:  ADEL + 2

Injuries:  ADEL + 7

Total: Crows by 40 points

Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 1.15

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 40 points and they won by 4.  Analysis was poor!!!  It is never good to have a “cert” luckily hang on to win by a kick.  Sorry for any unnecessary stress levels caused!

The “huge form spike after Friday night humiliation” was ignored (because the Bombers had been terrible for 2 Friday nights in a row), but they were tremendous vs Crows and unlucky not to win.  They lost Fletcher before the game and the also Winderlich + Howlett in play.  They showed more guts than a sumo wrestler in almost pulling off a huge upset

 

 


Best cert:  Roos (never in doubt after half time), followed by the Crows (always in doubt until the final siren!)

Best Outsider Dockers (never in doubt), then Blues (honest, but not good enough) and Cats (just got there in thriller)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Hard to pick one this weekend, but Roos to win by over 50 points (just got there!)


Happy tipping!  This is a week where you may be able to catch up one or 2 if needed.   There are a few favourites which may be vulnerable. (true)