Round 2, 2012.

Data to be added Wednesday 04 April 2012.  Tips will not be changed after Wednesday, but comments may be added

Round 2, 2012

Scores after round 1 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp 
Tips correct: 6 and 29,500 out of 67,670 tipsters Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly 

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Port won), so now at 1 out of 1 = 100% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)


Last Man Standing result: alive (Crows did it easily!)

Here is the data from Sportingbet’s Last Man Standing round 1 (the Swans Giants game was not part of the picks)

Team                              Selections   Result         Remaining

Richmond                                    5897        Eliminated

 Carlton                                        1198                 Alive         1198

Hawthorn                        802           Alive                802

Collingwood                      56           Eliminated

Melbourne                                2283                 Eliminated

Brisbane                                           15                 Alive                         15

Gold Coast                        55          Eliminated

Adelaide                                    9774                Alive                  9774

Fremantle                         38          Alive                   38

Geelong                                        511                Eliminated

North Melb                            31              Eliminated

Essendon                        109          Alive                 109

West. Bulldogs                 27          Eliminated

West Coast                    408           Alive                 408

Port Adelaide                   51           Alive                   51

St Kilda                        1342           Eliminated

Total                          22597                                      12395


A total of 10202 eliminated in round 1




Note:  DT+SC players only need to finalise their Brisbane and Carlton players by the first game; then the rest can be done on Saturday (no games Friday)


Apologies for lack of table format 

Round 2, 2012 

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:          

1 BRIS v CARL       CARL 24       HIGH             Some small chance only

2 ESS v PORT          ESS 29           EXTREME   Some small chance only

3 SYD v FREO         SYD 27          EXTREME   Some small chance only

4 WCE V MELB      WCE 67         HIGH             No hope

5 COLL v RICH      COLL 28       HIGH             Some small chance only

6 ADEL v WBD       ADEL 50       MEDIUM      No hope

7 NMFC v GWS      NMFC 80      EXTREME   No hope

8 STK v GCS            STK 42          HIGH             Some small chance only

9 GEEL V HAW      HAW 26        HIGH             Some small chance only



Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamentalissues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



1. BRIS v CARL   

Blues almost certs, but not quite 


The Lions beat Blues on a 5 day break in 2010.  Back then, the Blues played R1 & 2 Thursday to Thursday, and the Lions played Saturday / Thursday (exactly the same as 2012).  However, the difference is that in 2010, the Lions played both games at home.  In this case, they have to return from Melbourne and prepare.  In Brisbane’s favour is a top of 28 for Thursday and a low of 17 with 75% humidity.  Had it been cool and non-humid weather, then the Blues would have been near certs.  With the weather, it’s not worth the risk.  Blues by



Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 24 points

Home Ground: BRIS + 18 points  

Current Form: Even

Psychological: Unknown

Freshness:  CARL + 18 points

Total:  Blues by 24 points


Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 24 points and they won by 91.  Analysis was only reasonable, but no great harm done.  I reckon the Dees made the Lions look good in R1.  And the Blues advantage for freshness (5 day break vs 7) early in the season was more like 6 goals.  Once the Lions lost contact, they fell apart



2 ESS v PORT         

Dons almost certs, but a small risk

Possible team changes

ESS:  In: Carlisle;  Out:  Hardingham (inj) {Hocking a test with concussion}

PORT: In:  Trengove, Gray;  Out: Pearce, Jacobs (both omitted)

It is tempting to nominate the Dons as absolute certs.  They are much higher rated than Port and playing at home.   Any maybe Port will be flat after putting a huge effort into last week’s win.

However, the Dons had a stressful game and had to wait until a kick after the siren by McIntosh to be declared winners.

And how good are Port?  Obviously better than the 2011 team, but unlikely to do an “Eagles” and come from near last to be top 4.  At the moment, they are rated 10 wins and 12th.  However, if they are a top 8 team, then they may be a slim chance here. 

Alternatively, they could get flogged. 

While the variance is extreme here, the early form in the game is likely to run true.

Dons by 29 points but not quite certs


Post Match Review:  Dons were tipped by 29 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was pretty good here, but remember that the variance was extreme; so it is more good fortune than skill to get so close in the margin.  I probably rate both Port and the Bombers higher than most, so it evened out.  Once again, the Dons did well to cover injuries during a match.


3 SYD v FREO         SYD

Swans almost certs, but a small risk

Possible team changes

SYD: In:  Shaw, O’Keefe (both Possible to return from injury);  Out: Cunningham (omitted); Parker (jaw)

FREO: In: Mundy;  Out:  Ballantyne (suspended)

Freo were uprated by many after beating the Cats last week.  As such, and with the Swans being just okay last round, they are given a huge chance.  I would be prepared to label the Swans as certs bar for the week’s rest (they played the Giants a week before the rest of round 1). 

I still have the Swans higher rated than the Dockers and with a huge home ground advantage at the SCG.  Round 1 was very emotional for Freo and there may be a letdown.  If so, the Swans could win big.


Swans by 27 and almost certs

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 27 points and they won by 13.  Analysis was excellent here.  The reason being that most tipped this game as the possible upset, while I was bullish on the Swans.  The loss of Mumford before the game and the wrong interchange decision resulting in a goal to Freo trimmed the margin.  I am still happy not to name the Swans as certs, because of their “week’s rest” between rounds 1 & 2.



4 WCE V MELB     

Eagles big certs

Possible team changes

WCE: No change

MELB: In: Bennell; Out:  Bate (omitted) {but the Dees may swing the axe}

The idea might come to you that the Dees will excel after the week of trauma.  Dismiss the notion immediately.  The Eagles will win big here, even if Melbourne is “up and about”.   They have many players out or underdone, as well.

The Eagles are higher rated and playing at home with great form (albeit not having been challenged this year, except for NAB Cup final).

Eagles by 67 points and the certs of the round

Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 67 points and they won by 108.  Analysis was reasonably good in this case.  Subsequent to the tip, Moloney pulled out injured and then Martin was a late withdrawal.  The Eagles were correctly labelled as the certs of the week.


5 COLL v RICH     

Pies almost certs, but a small risk

Possible team changes

COLL: In: Beams;  Out: Yagmoor  {Tiger fans hoping that the outs were going to be Pendelbury and Swan}

RICH:  In:  King (was suspended R1);  Out: Morris

Logic would suggest the Pies should win comfortably.  Both team have had a long time to lick their wounds after round 1 losses.  Richmond may be more mentally scarred (perhaps) from round 1 than Collingwood.  The Pies are the far superior team, but still have more injuries.  This prevents them from being total certs.  Maxwell has already ruled himself out.

Pies by 28 points, but not certs.

Post Match Review:  Pies were tipped by 28 points and they won by 21.  Analysis was excellent here.  The fact is that the Pies are still a way off their best; that is why I wasn’t as bullish as some experts.  Nonetheless, with the wild fluctuations in scoring in the game, the Pies could have won anywhere from a few points to 12 goals.



6 ADEL v WBD       ADEL

Crows are certs

Possible team changes

ADEL: No change

WBD: In: Griffen (to play with a finger guard), Gilbee;  Out:  Howard (knee), Dickson (omitted)

The Crows are flying with the smallest injury list in the AFL.  Meanwhile, the Dogs have some injury concerns and some players are still yet to hit form (eg Brian Lake).  At home, the Crows are certs.

Crows by 50 points

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 50 points and they won by 18.  Analysis was just average here.  The Crows appeared to be on an unstoppable roll so far this year, but almost ran out of puff.  The 3rd quarter of the Crows suggests that they are almost due for a downer (good news for Hawthorn in R3).  I didn’t see this coming by the way they played against the Suns in R1.

Meanwhile, Lake came back to form for the Dogs and a few senior players lifted their games.  


7 NMFC v GWS     

Roos are certs

Possible team changes

NMFC: In: Grima (fitness test, knee);  Out: Tarrant (ham)

GWS: In: Scully;  Out: Tyson {Brogan played last weekend and may be considered & Folau missed training for personal reasons}

Don’t expect any miracles here. The Roos will be a tad flat after the missed kick last weekend, but they will have enough in the tank to easily account for the Giants.  This game is in Hobart.

Roos by 80 points and certs

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 80 points and they won by 129.  Analysis was reasonable.  They were always big certs and played accordingly.  Hobart gave the Roos a warm reception, despite the lack of a strong opponent.



8 STK v GCS           

Saints are almost certs

Possible team changes

STK: In: Simpkin; Out:  Polo (suspended)

GCS: In: Shaw (illness, test); Out: Tape (teeth)

The Suns look a tad flat so far this year.  It’s hard to see them downing the Saints in Melbourne, but the experts are slightly more bullish on the Saints than me.  As such, I will declare them almost certs.  The only worry is that they may be on a downer after losing to Port last week.

Saints by 42 points and almost certs

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 42 points and they won by 92.  Analysis was only reasonable here.  They won like absolute certs.  No great harm done, except the streak could have been improved by 1.  It has been difficult to get a good line on the Giants and the Suns at present.



9 GEEL V HAW     

Hawks should win, but…

Possible team changes

GWS: In: Brown; Out: Scarlett (suspended)

GWS: In: Shiels; Out: Bateman (omitted)

Based on 2012 form, the Hawks would be almost certs.  They are closer to their best team than Geelong at present.  Buddy and Cyril are back in form.  Meanwhile, Enright is underdone for the Cats and Stephenson was ordinary (although against Sandilands) in round 1.

But before you select the Hawks as certs, it should be noted that from 2008 to 2010, three teams beat Geelong in the finals – Pies, Hawks and Saints.  The Cats have not lost to any of them since (except for NAB Cup).  Some wins have been less than a kick, but this alone would suggest that is may not be smart to be too certain on the Hawks.  However, if and when they do eventually beat Geelong, it could be by a big margin.  This happened in 1981-1986.  Essendon had beaten the Blues 1981 – 1985 every time.  When the Blues finally broke through, they ran away late in the game to win by about 9 goals.


Hawks by 26 points, but not certs

Monday lunchtime update:  Not quite as confident on the Hawks today with Shiels not playing.  Also, in hindsight, should probably have made the variance extreme.  The Cats are a definite chance, but I would still select the Hawks.

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 26 points but the Cats won by 2.  Analysis was too little, too late.  The Cats should have been labelled as the best outsiders for the week.  This was “sort of” done above (red writing) at noon on Monday, but what good is that to anybody?  I cooled on the Hawks with Shiels not selected, then began to think of the Hawks Cats recent history.  And history duly repeated.  The Hawks certainly tightened up in the 4Q when the Cats got within 2 goals.  The Hawks would have held their ¾ time lead against any other team on the weekend except Geelong.  The Blues are going better than Geelong at present, but the Hawks would have won against the Blues with that ¾ time lead.


Various players, the umps and the coach were blamed on talkback radio after the game. 

I ask: Why wasn’t Jeff Kennett’s name mentioned?

I reckon he should come out and say:

The Cats seem to have the wood on us since the 2008 grand final.  They’re not a bad team, really.

And if Felicity prefers the Cats’ jumper as a fashion statement, I’ll be happy for her to wear it.


Sadly, the Hawks inability to kick a goal stopped me from tipping a first ever 9/9






Best cert:  Eagles How easy! then Crows Yes, after a few anxious moments & Roos Too easy!


Best Outsider:  Looks like a good week for favourites overall.  And though it will be a rare week when all favourites win, no outsider stands out here.  If you cannot help yourself, Richmond are some small chance. Very sorry, should have been the Cats; but I only warmed to the Cats on Monday at noon (see red addition on Cats / Hawks game above).  The Tigers were more valiant this week without really looking like winning.


Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated):  Eagles to win by over 50 points.  Never in doubt


Happy tipping!  There were 3 upsets last week, but this week, you should steer clear of picking too many roughies