Round 2, 2013


Round 2, 2013

Scores after round 1 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 3 (not flash) and 52,715 out of 62,023 tipsters

Accumulator: 6.91 and 2,405 out of 11,493 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Alive (Swans won).  As a curio, those who fail to tip in the LMS comp automatically get the home team in the first game.  This week (with the comp beginning on Easter Saturday), that team was the despised Dogs.  So 2,366 people got through to round 2 despite “tipping” a rank outsider as their cert. Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly (so streak is at 2)

50/50 tips: both correct for the round (Freo won and Suns won), so now at 2 out of 2 = 100% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R2:  one thing that stands out like a whale in a goldfish bowl is that the experts have incorrectly assessed the Lions / Crows game, taking too much note of the R1 Lions form and not enough of the R1 Crows’ form + the NAB Cup form.  The Lions will be tipped as certs and will be tipped to win easily.
Port look like total certs against the Giants, whose form wasn’t as good as it looked vs Swans.   Speaking of which, the Swans and Dons look to be certs at this early stage (Tuesday night)

Apologies for lack of table format

Round 2, 2013

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:        
1 STK v RICH         RICH  14       EXTREME   Some chance
2 SYD v GCS            SYD  54         HIGH             No hope
3 WBD v FREO       FREO 21       HIGH             A tiny hope
4 BRIS v ADEL       BRIS 39         HIGH             Tipped as a cert
5 ESS v MELB         ESS 34           EXTREME   A tiny hope
6 PORT v GWS       PORT 43       HIGH             No hope
7 GEEL v NMFC    GEEL 17       HIGH             Some chance
8 COLL v CARL     CARL 22       EXTREME   Some chance
9 WCE v HAW        WCE  3          EXTREME   No outsider here

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



1 STK v RICH        
The Tigers without being overconfident

The Tigers deserved their win in R1, even though the Blues kicked themselves out of it late in the game.  After a few years of getting done by the Blues, it will be interesting to see how they will be mentally for R2.  It is suspected that they will be okay, despite the Richmond website advertising a DVD of the R1 game already.  The other problem to consider is the fade-out by both teams in R1.  A Blues win would have been devastating for Richmond; so a small win probably isn’t too bad.  The worst fade-outs in R1 is where a lowly team competes for most of the match and is then totally blown away late (EG Port vs Pies R1, 2011 where Port got to within 15 points late in 3Q, but finished up losing by 75 points.  In R2, Port lost at home as favourites to the then lowly rated Eagles).

The Saints had a few problems last week – humidity, no Montagna, Fisher, Dempster and Schneider.  They all come back this week, but there may be doubts as to whether they can all perform at their peak.  For this reason, the Tigers will be tipped.  Richmond is less underdone, although Grimes (named on IC) may be in need of the run.

The short break for the Saints coming back from the heat is a small concern only.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 6 points

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: RICH + 5

Team Changes: EVEN

Psychological: STK + 7

Freshness: RICH + 6

Injuries: RICH + 4

Total: Tigers by 14 points
Accumulator tip: STK ~ 3.30


Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 14 points and they won by 17.  Analysis was pretty close to the mark, but nothing really to skite about, since the variance was marked as extreme and the Saints tipped in the Accumulator.  But the game pattern did prove that the Tigers were definitely no certs and that the Saints had some sort of chance – maybe just slightly running out of fully fit players (IE quite a few had missed chunks of the pre-season) in the end.

2 SYD v GCS           
The Swans are certs of the week

The Swans were not in premiership winning form against the Giants last week, but did enough to win.  As they are gearing up to peak in R3-5, they should be better this week than last.
The Suns looked good last week, but the “outs” for the Saints and the humidity made the win look better than it really was.  Yes, the Suns have definitely improved, but let’s measure their progress after a few more rounds.
They are comparable to the Saints, but well below the ability of Sydney.  And, while probably being slightly more “forward in condition” than Sydney, they also have a larger injury list – with Broughton being the latest addition.  Others to be missing are Bock, Brown (suspended), Lonergan, Patrick and Stanley.

Goodes was reported by one source to have a minor knee niggle in R1, but all looks well now.

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 24 points

Home Ground: SYD + 15

Current Form: SYD + 1

Team Changes: SYD + 8

Psychological: SYD + 4

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: SYD + 2

Total: Swans by 54 points
Accumulator tip: SYD ~ 1.10

Post Match Review:  The Swans were tipped by 54 points and they won by 41.  Analysis was pretty good and the Swans were correctly tipped as certs.  They had the unfurling of the flag in the rain with Andrew Demetriou sporting a see through poncho.  Meanwhile, the Suns were cosy and warm inside their rooms.  This may have contributed to a scratchy start by Sydney, but the game was always in hand after QT.


3 WB v FREO         
The Dockers probably

This is exactly the type of away game the Dockers need to win in order to secure a top 8 spot.  The Dockers looked wonderful against a quite depleted Eagles team in R1.  They were tipped as certs in this website despite being underdogs at the time of writing.  The general public got on board and eventually the game was about a line ball one as it began.

The Dogs were the huge upset winners (especially considering the margin) last week.  Here is a quick technical analysis note from Penny Dredfell:

When bottom teams go on a long losing run and then win big, there is a tendency for them to underperform the week after.  Or if they do outperform expectations, then they do it by a tiny amount only.  Of the 8 such teams to do this in the past 3 years, only 2 teams outperformed to any extent in the following week.  And one of those was the Suns vs Collingwood very late in the season when the Magpies form was going all over the place.  The most likely occurrence is for the Dogs to underperform by about 4 goals (which would equate to a 40 – 50 point loss this weekend).  But the theory hasn’t been tested when the losing runs begins in one season and ends early in the next; so the technical lead is there, but it is not overly strong.

Koby Stevens may be a small doubt after having ice on his hammie late last week, but the club says a scan revealed no damage.

It may be tough for Goodes and Morris to do as well in R2 after all their publicity in R1.  Ignore the 99 point win by Freo over the Dogs in NAB3 (in WA) as a form guide because the Dogs rested Cross, Gia, Griffen, Higgins, Minson, Morris, Murphy, Picken and Goodes.

It is a risk that the Dockers may be stale after a week off, but more of a risk that the Dogs’ form last week was too good to be true (refer comments below on the Lions)

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 24 points

Home Ground: WBD + 22

Current Form: FREO + 2

Team Changes: WBD + 1

Psychological: FREO + 20 (see technical above)

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: WBD + 2

Total: Dockers by 21 points
Accumulator tip: FREO ~ 1.33 just (Dogs are at ~3.25)

Post Match Review:  The Dockers were tipped by 21 points and they won by 28.  Analysis was good enough here.  There was some small thought given to calling them certs, but the few uncertainties prevented it.  Referring to Penny’s technical analysis in brown above (which suggested that the Dogs may underperform this week), her theory was proven right but only by a small extent.  The Dockers won like they were going ¾ pace.



The Lions by lots!

This is another case of the experts having it totally wrong.  The Crows are favourites based on 2012 form and the Lions R1 form.

But there is much more to consider than that.

The NAB Cup form usually holds up, but J Brown mentioned this week that training was poor before R1 and it is good now.  The reason for the downturn in form was possibly because the Dogs game was their 4th consecutive match on the road.  It was though that the week’s rest would freshen them up for R1, but it may have served as a “badly timed breather”.  The news about Boyd pulling out of the Dogs’ team also helped in lulling the Lions.  They will be savage now and have a relatively healthy list.  And, then there is the home ground advantage with the likelihood of rain.

Meanwhile, the Crows had a week off that they didn’t need.  They, too, will be upset with their R1 form.  But their general form prior to that wasn’t all that flash.  And this year, the Lions are rated higher than the Crows.

Adelaide supporters were expecting to be 4 and zip to begin the year.  They lost the first one and, after the Lions, face the top 2 teams on the ladder (okay, it’s Port, then the Dogs, but it sounds a bit scary).

Maths (in points)

Ability: BRIS + 6 points

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form: BRIS + 5

Team Changes: BRIS + 3

Psychological: BRIS + 10

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: ADEL + 3

Total: Lions by 39 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip: BRIS ~ 2.15

Post Match Review:  The Lions were tipped by 39 points but the Crows won by 19.  OUCH and BIG APOLOGIES!!  All was going smoothly at 3QT when the Lions had come from behind to establish an 8 point lead (which should have been greater).  But, instead of running away with it in 4Q, they seemed to be looking to “not lose”, and, in trying to save the game, lost it.  The Lions appeared to be happy to play the game in the Crows’ front half and would have been better to take the game on.  Robert Shaw was another who was very keen on the Lions and tipped them with confidence.  He thought they were lazy and that the forwards lacked the discipline to defend when needed.  J Brown was also disappointing for the 2nd week running, while Karnezis was surprisingly made the sub.  The Crows’ win was, however, full of merit and Crouch made an auspicious debut.


5 ESS v MELB        
The Dons are ALMOST certs

The Dees were equal favourites last week and got totally flogged by an improving Port team.

The axe has been somewhat swung, but the ins have some question marks over them.  Terlich is new, but has excelled in the NAB Cup.  The other 3 all had poor patches in their pre-season.  Trengove (missed all NAB Cup) and Tom McDonald (missed NAB 2, 3 & 4) are just back from injury while Davey was apparently unfit prior to Christmas and didn’t set the world on fire in the NAB Cup.  And STILL top NAB Cup performers Magner + Strauss are running around for the Casey Scorpions.  Regardless of which team he plays for, Rodan is always the first dropped after a shocker. Nothing has changed!

Things are almost at crisis point after R1 at Melbourne.  Therefore, expect them to come out firing but, in the end, not have the class or fitness base (due to players missing chunks of the pre-season) to keep up.

The Dons should really be total certs, but two small things of concern are:
Essendon last beat the Dees in 2009 and have lost 3 straight to them since then; and the week off for the Dons after their emotional win in Adelaide.  It is possible that they may have had a huge build-up for the game and then be left flat, especially with the week off.

As it is early in the season, feel free to add them to your list of certs if it is not a knock-out comp.

Maths (in points)

Ability: ESS + 12 points (but both teams in review on ability)

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: ESS + 20

Team Changes: EVEN

Psychological: MELB + 2

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: ESS + 4

Total: Dons by 34 points
Accumulator tip: ESS ~ 1.08

Post Match Review: The Dons were tipped by 34 points and they won by 148.  Analysis was 114 points away, but not feeling too bad about it.  The game was marked as an EXTREME VARIANCE game and so it was in real life.  Just to clarify, the extreme variance call means that it is highly likely the one team will put in an absolute shocker.  And the Dees, sadly, came to the party in that regard.  Had we known the mindset of Melbourne, the Dons would have been assessed as total certs.



6 PORT v GWS      
Port by plenty

Port have never beaten GWS.  Their one and only encounter was the 2012 R19 “sack the coach” game.  Port was also the first team to lose to the Suns. 

The Giants provided plenty of entertainment last week in the Battle of the Bridge.  But the Swans were only in 2nd gear.  So don’t expect too much from the fledgling team on that basis.

Port’s form is also a bit hard to gauge, since the Dees took such a battering.  But their overall form in the NAB Cup is quite good, and the home ground advantage should ensure a comfortable win.  And their coaching setup appears to be much better this year with a new fitness coach as well as Alan Richardson joining Ken Hinkley late last year.

Maths (in points)

Ability: PORT + 18  points

Home Ground: PORT + 18

Current Form: PORT + 13

Team Changes: EVEN

Psychological: GWS + 6

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: EVEN

Total: Port by 43 points and CERTS
Accumulator tip: PORT ~ 1.15

Post Match Review:  Port was tipped by 43 points and they won by 56.  Analysis was spot on in this game, despite the Giants coming out of the blocks quickly.  Port were correctly tipped as certs.


7 GEEL v NMFC   
The Cats without total confidence

The Cats did it again last week.
I must not tip the Hawks against Geelong!

I must not tip the Hawks against Geelong!

I must not tip the Hawks against Geelong!


Their excellent pre-season form held up well into the regular season.  Their higher rating and better current form suggests a comfortable win for the Cats.  And the 6 day break (with 2 more to come in R3 & 4) should not be a problem just yet.

One issue may be the fact that the Cats can tend to underperform the week after playing Hawthorn.  In fact, the R3, 2012 win by the Roos over Geelong was a week after the Cats beat the Hawks on Easter Monday.  This is probably less likely this time.  In 2012, the Cats lost R1 (surprisingly) and were under the pump in R2 more so than for last week’s match.  So there may have been a bigger “up” last year with a larger corresponding “down” the following week.

Another concern is losing 2 players to injury.  At least Kelly and (probably) Corey come back this week.

The Roos were very poor last week.  The Collingwood injuries and lack of rotation options late in the game helped make North’s effort look respectable.  But the team would be aware of how much they must improve. At least they get McMahon back and have few other injuries.

Their low number of casualties plus the fact that the Cats played Hawthorn 6 days earlier gives the Roos a chance – but not enough to get too excited about them.

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 12  points

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: GEEL + 11

Team Changes: GEEL + 3

Psychological: NMFC + 5

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: NMFC + 4

Total: Cats by 17 points
Accumulator tip: GEEL ~ 1.45 (just, and the Roos are ~ 2.45)

Post Match Review:  The Cats were tipped by 17 points and they won by 4.  Analysis was reasonable in this case.  The Cats were way off the pace early but, in the end, almost kicked themselves out of it and could have won by more.  The extreme swings in momentum during this game makes one wonder if the variance should have been EXTREME, even though the end result was close to the estimate.  The subbing out of Brown for Stokes in 3Q was pivotal and Stokes amassed 78 Supercoach pts thereafter.



The Pies, without total confidence

The Blues were already struggling up forward before losing Betts and Hampson and their loss has taken their chances from quite good to somewhat slimmer.  And still no sign of Jarrad “don’t call me Scott Gumbleton” Waite, while Scotland is still suspended.

Robinson passed a concussion test on Tuesday.  And Carlton’s 10 day break is a bit too long and is a slight negative.

But the Pies have their own worries – missing Ball, Beams, Didak, Fasolo, Keeffe and D Thomas (it was J who played last week), while Krakouer is yet to regain match fitness

Mick Malthouse’s early record against his former sides:

1990 Eagles vs Dogs R3

Eagles by 63 points at Western Oval

R16: Eagles by 43 points at the WACA

2000 Collingwood vs Eagles

R11 Collingwood lost to the Eagles by 36 points at Docklands.

So the record is a bit patchy and doesn’t really help us.  Mick noted rounds 2 & 15 (his games vs Collingwood) when he was interviewed some weeks ago.  So he is looking forward to the encounters.

In the end, the Pies’ higher rating will be the reason for picking them.  And Shaw returning also helps.  The confidence is low due to the history of the Blues beating Collingwood on a regular basis – even when outsiders.

The coaching story, along with the injury situation, makes this an EXTREME VARIANCE game and leads to the Blues being the weighted tip.

Maths (in points)

Ability: COLL + 18 points

Home Ground: EVEN

Current Form: COLL + 2

Team Changes: COLL + 12

Psychological: CARL + 7

Freshness: EVEN

Injuries: CARL + 3

Total: Pies by 22 points
Accumulator tip: CARL ~ 2.95

Post Match Review:  The Pies were tipped by 22 points and they won by 17.  Analysis was okay, but there was little confidence due to the Mick Malthouse focus of this match.  In the end, the Pies were too good and did it without Jolly.  And the “no certs” call seems justified, given that the game was in the balance so late in the game.


9 WCE v HAW       
The toughest one to pick – Eagles just

The Eagles have more injuries than anyone right now.  They are still without Kerr, Le Cras, MacKenzie, Naitanui, Nicoski, Rosa and Wellingham.  And they have too long a break from the R1 Derby until Sunday’s game when they were overrun.

But this negative is offset by Hawthorn’s worries.  Lake remains injured and Hodge may not play, even though named on the 7 man IC bench.  The Hawks lacks outside run, as mentioned during the week.  And Subiaco shouldn’t suit them.  Their break is too short and they are playing in 32 degree temperatures in Perth.  Shiels copped a knock early and is on the 7 man IC bench – maybe he could drop out.

Avoid this game if you can.  The tip is Eagles with no confidence

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 6 points

Home Ground: WCE + 21

Current Form: HAW + 10

Team Changes: HAW + 3

Psychological: WCE + 5

Freshness: HAW + 6

Injuries: HAW + 4

Total: Eagles by 3 points
Accumulator tip: HAW ~ 2.00

Post Match Review: The Eagles were tipped by 3 points but the Hawks won by 50.  Analysis was a long way off in this instance, but the game was marked as “Don’t Like” and “EXTREME VARIANCE”. That was why the Hawks were tipped in the Accumulator.  The problems with this game was that the Hawks had too short of a break and were playing in the heat; whereas the Eagles have a huge injury list and their break since R1 was too long.


Best cert: Port (won well), then Swans (won well) and Lions (ouch!)

Best Outsider:  Lions (ouch!), with Saints (gave a yelp), Roos (almost got there) and Blues (gave a yelp) having some chance. 

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Lions to win or lose by less than 2 points (ouch again)

Happy tipping!  This should be a bit more predictable than R1!

(and it was with 8 favourites winning and the Hawks being equal favourites)