Round 2, 2016 Penny
Technical Analysis prior to R2, 2016
By Penny Dredfell
Added 31 Mar 2016
While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.
Reviewing last week: nothing done yet this year
This week, the game of interest is Dogs versus Saints. It is Nick riewoldt’s 300th game and the “Maddie” game as well; last year, the Saints lost the Maddie game to the Tigers (with cousin Jack playing for Richmond); the Tigers led by 52 points at the last change, but the Saints booted 6 goals to nil in the final term to lose by 16 points.
While the Maddie and 300 will be a positive; but there is a huge negative that is likely to “weigh down” the St Kilda team. And this is that they were blown away late in the game against Port – having led by 21 points in the third term.
Looking at teams that have been in the game late in the contest in R1 over the years that get blown away late – they have a terrible record in R2. The 7 occurrences of this since 2010 have resulted in 6 teams underperforming and 1 slightly beating expectations; the average underperformance is a whopping 25 points.
The notable cases are:
2014: Crows blown away late by the Cats; lost last term by 33 points to lose the game by 39; then were smashed by 54 points in a Showdown when they were slight outsiders only
2014: Swans blown away by the Giants R1 – losing final term 6 goals to nil.
Next week – Swans favourites, but lose to the Pies by 20 points
2011: Lowly Port take it up to the all-conquering Pies in R1 to come from well down to trail by 15 points in the third term; end up losing by 75; next week, start favourites at home to the Eagles and lose by 18 points.
This info won’t help normal tipsters as the Dogs are hot favourites anyway and are tipped to win by about 4-5 goals; I expect them to win by over 7 goals