Round 20, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R20, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 05 Aug 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week (R19): a mixed result; warning people away from tipping the Saints was a top move (with a lot of tipsters going for the Saints on the back of their big win the previous round against Freo); not so flash was being somewhat upbeat on the Dees and Port (insert frown here).

Now on to round 20!  Of note in R19 was that the Dees went from leading 50 to 36 to losing 50 to 74 (losing the last 20 minutes or so by 38 points to 1).  The correct post mortem of this event may prove helpful for tipping this weekend.

The turning point was when Pedersen was hit by Merrett and went off the ground.  Melbourne seemed to chucked it in after that event.  But it is also noted that:
A. The Dees wasted their chances and probably should have been further in front at the time – wasting chances saps one’s energy
B. Pedersen had to leave the field with Tapscott already subbed off; then Tom McDonald was off with an ankle injury; so the Dees were down to one rotation

Based on A & B, the 23 point win by the Lions needs to be somewhat downgraded.  This creates a greater chance than normal (25%) for the Lions to underperform expectations and for Melbourne to over-achieve in R20.

Let’s look at the R20 games for Brisbane and Melbourne:  the Dees play the Hawks and are rank outsiders.  So a Melbourne win is unlikely – but they may get within the 8 goals that the experts are currently tipping.

The Lions will be tipped by many as the upset against Crows at the Gabba.  But our analysis would suggest avoiding the Lions.

Add to this the fact that the Crows have been put through the wringer after their horrible fade-out last week.  The loss means that they are now talked of as missing finals action.  The previous week the Eagles’ loss caused them to be written off – and they came out and blew the Crows away.  The Crows lost Talia early and Pods was in the wars – to accentuate matters.

This news tends to help such teams perform at a high level the following week.  And it is also noted that the Crows have had two upset losses previously in 2014 and have performed excellently in the following rounds both times – going at +32 and +42 – and winning as outsiders both times.

This all leads to a fair degree of confidence in the Crows.  Despite that fact that they are narrow favourites, I am going to declare them certs and expect them to win by more than the 12 points most are tipping.


Added 06 Aug 2014
PS: looking at the 6 teams in R19 who had the R18B bye and played teams having the R18A bye, they all lost.  The team were (with performance against expectation in points)
Bombers +4 and lost by 22 to the Swans
Giants +17 and lost by 27 to the Tigers
Dees -28 and lost by 23 to the Lions
Port -13 and lost by 6 to the Pies
Saints -32 and lost by 53 to the Suns
Dogs -25 and lost by 62 to the Hawks

On average, they performed 13 points worse than expected.  Critically, 2 of the 6 teams were beaten favourites (Dees and Port).  Unlike the R8-10 byes, where the “fresh” teams slightly excelled, it seems that teams were a bit sluggish coming off the bye.  If we were to assume that all 6 teams would do a bit better this week and the teams they played against a bit worse (say a goal each way), the following would apply:
Dons would beat the Tigers by 4 goals
Hawks would beat the Dees by 6 goals
Giants would lose to the Roos by 5 goals
Port would lose to the Swans by less than a kick (like last time they met)*
The Suns would lose to the Blues by 3 goals
The Lions would lose to the Crows by 3 goals
The Pies would lose to the Eagles by less than a goal.

The useful information (if the “bounce-back” from these trends hold true) is for the games above in pink.  For the other games, there may be other factors which far outweigh the “bye” factor.

* For Port to win, they would have to be over their virus stuff and also be out of their slump.  Both are possible, with the latter being the more doubtful of the 2