Round 20



Data to be added 2.00AM Friday 10 Aug 2012 EST

Round 20, 2012

Scores after round 19 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp
Tips correct: 6 (in a hard week) and cumulative: 122 winners (including bonus 2 points) and improved from 13,501 to 12,499 out of 73,130 tipsters. Streak:  tipped 2 of 2 certs correctly. 
The streak is now up to 11.

50/50 tips: correct for the round (Roos took all day to get over the 50 point margin, but did it late in the game), so now at 11 out of 19 = 58% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Sportingbet’s free Accumulator comp (This is like the Herald Sun 2011 weighted tipping):  an excellent 12.86 points for the round and sharply improved from 1,842 to 1,231 out of 11,857 tipsters.



Early thoughts for R20:  The certs for the round appear to be the Hawks, Crows, Saints and Tigers.

Keen on the Eagles to beat the Cats in a 50/50 game.

Not prepared to label the Blues as certs yet.

Danger games loom for the Suns (with all their injuries), Roos (Dons are probably a better team, but have lost a couple and get some back – hard to pick this game) and Swans (who haven’t beaten the Pies for several years)



……Game……….. Tip… By.. Variance………. Outsider is




Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions

Psychological: includes teams about to peak or drop in form, players coming into form after injury, technical analysis observations, whether a team is really UP for the game or, alternatively, horribly flat; and other things not covered by the other categories.

Accumulator: is the same as the old Herald Sun weighted tip.  You pick a winner and the comp (Sportingbet, in this case) gives you the bookies odds for tipping the winner.  EG: in round 10 ESS v MELB, you would have got a score of 1.04 for tipping the Bombers and 12.00 for tipping the Dees.

The Eagles to fly high (and win)

As you will remember, Hawkins kicked a goal after the siren to claim victory for the Cats last week.  The last 6 times a kick after the siren has won a game, the team involved has lost.  The last team to win in this way was, in fact, Geelong in 2005.  For the 6 teams that lost, 4 of them were big losses where the team hugely underperformed.

This year, the Suns did quite well in losing to the Lions.  This technical data will count against Geelong and rated at -2 goals.

Apart from that, almost everything goes the Eagles’ way: home ground, third game in Perth in 3 weeks (although the Cats get a slightly longer rest), the game finished after 11.00PM Geelong time, team changes + an unsubstantiated rumour that Chapman has done a hammie (reported on SEN Thursday arvo) – you can find out if he arrives in Perth prior to doing your tips.  If not playing, subtract 3 – 6 points.

There are only 2 reasons the Cats might win:

1.  They seem to be on a big roll

2.  The Eagles may still have injured players (Cox, Naitanui and Shuey struggled last week)

Looking at theCox, Naitanui and Shuey were down vs Dockers (Cox SC 76 vs 105 average, Nic Nat 81 vs 110 average and Shuey SC 40 vs 96 average).  Any return to normal numbers suggests an Eagles win, while a repeat of poor returns gives Geelong a chance.

These 2 factors prevent the Eagles from being named as certs, but it was a close call.  The EXTREME variance assigned to this game also helped prevent the “cert” call.

Mitch Brown with the number 1 jumper is listed as an emergency for both teams!

Forecast: Fine, but a cold night

Maths (in points)

Ability:   Even

Home Ground:  WCE + 21

Current Form:  GEEL + 11

Freshness:  WCE + 3 (2 x 6 day breaks for Eagles, but no travel as R18 – 20 all in Perth!)

Team Changes:  WCE + 7

Pyschological:  WCE + 14

Injuries:  WCE + 1

Total: Eagles by 35 points

Accumulator tip:  WCE ~ 1.92


Post Match Review:  Eagles were tipped by 35 points and they won by 5.  Analysis was a fair way off and the Eagles just got over the line.  The question now remains:  are the Cats doing really well (given that they had 4 out injured before the game and lost Hawkins early)?  Or are the Eagles really struggling (big losses recently to Sydney, Adelaide and Freo punctuated by a big win over the lowly Lions).  Maybe the latter is 75% of the answer.  Darling appears to lack confidence at present while Swift isn’t up to AFL standard on his game.  Rosa and Kennedy come back soon!


The Saints will go marching in

Often teams fighting for a spot in the finals excel against top teams and then drop a game against mediocre opposition.  This is NOT one of those times.  The Dees are just too injured, registering 29 (the higher, the worse) on the injury scale to St Kilda 6.

Still no Martin and Watts for the Dees and they were given a chance.

The Dees had a good win last week, but the Suns lost players left, right and middle during the game.

Not much time will be spent on this game.  The experts assessment of an 8 goal win is about right and the Saints are certs.

Forecast: cool to cold, possible shower

Maths (in points)

Ability:  STK + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  STK + 13

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  MELB + 4

Pyschological:  STK + 6

Injuries:  STK + 15

Total: Saints by 54 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  STK ~ 1.05

Post Match Review:  Saints were tipped by 54 points and they won by 25.  Analysis was just okay.  The saints did have the excuse of 2 late withdrawals (Jones and Ray), but the Dees likewise lost Frawley.  It is possible that the Saints were on a downer in between their games vs Pies and Cats.  More analysis needs to be done midweek on their 4 goal to 8 goal last quarter against an extremely depleted Dees team.  Riewoldt got injured, but there may be more to it than that.  At least it didn’t cost anything in terms of tips.  The Saints were still certs.



The Crows to hit form

What a great Derby win by Freo last weekend!  And with the Crows barely falling over the line, this looks like a juicy game.

First, the case for Freo.  They are on a  bit of a roll and Pav is firing.  They smashed the Eagles last week when the Eagles had the advantage of 2 home games in a row.  And Adelaide have been struggling of late.

Now why the Crows will win and win big.  The Dockers caught the Eagles at a good time with many Eagles below top form and playing (perhaps unwisely) under injury clouds.  This time the Crows have 2 home games in a row and they get back Tippett.  This will be the first time Tippett and Walker have played together since R12.  And no McPharlin to mind them!! Their form against top teams is a little shaky, but good enough to topple Freo with the home ground advantage as an added bonus.  And maybe the Dons were unexpectedly good last week after a Friday night shocker the previous week.

Forecast: cloudy, cool

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ADEL + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  ADEL + 24

Current Form:  FREO + 8

Freshness:  ADEL + 3

Team Changes:  ADEL + 8

Pyschological:  ADEL + 7

Injuries:  ADEL + 2

Total: Crows by 42 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  ADEL ~ 1.43

Post Match Review:  Crows were tipped by 42 points and they won by 28.  Analysis was pretty good.  The loss of Tippett would subtract a goal from the margin tip, but then put back on for Fyfe’s omission.  The late withdrawal of Silvagni was not significant in terms of margin tipping.  The reason for the experts overrating Freo was the poor form of the Eagles last week skewing the analysis for many.  The Crows were correctly labelled “certs”.



Stay away from this game if you can!!

Who would know what is going on here!!!  Did the AFL just announce a prize for the most “outs” or something?  Any change you can make, I can make better!

The Suns deserve to be favourites.  Although this was not obvious during the week when Gold Coast had a raft of players missing.  They lost Smith but failed to bring back Fraser and named Dixon in the ruck.  Swallow has been named, but may be a doubtful starter.  Perhaps he will be replaced by emergency Tom Hickey (who can help Dixon in the ruck)

The Giants “matched” the omissions later in the week.  Palmer is still out, but they look to have the Suns covered in the ruck with Phillips (in good form in the 2s) coming in to help Giles.

The form is hard to line up with so many changes.  There is no category above EXTREME variance, but this game may be a candidate.  This does not necessarily mean a bizarre result; it merely increases the likelihood of such.  Add to all this that the Suns still haven’t won at home.

Forecast: Mostly sunny, chance of a shower, humidity not severe

Maths (in points)

Ability:  SUNS + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  SUNS + 18

Current Form:  SUNS + 5

Freshness:  GWS + 6

Team Changes:  GWS + 12

Pyschological:  SUNS + 2 (but who knows?)

Injuries:  GWS + 14

Total: Suns by 17 points

Accumulator tip:  GWS ~ 2.95

Post Match Review:  Suns were tipped by 17 points and they won by 30.  Analysis was pretty good, but the famous above words “stay away from this game” was definitely true.  The Giants already had 6 outs and then 2 more dropped out prior to the game.  This gave the Giants virtually no chance at all.  And then the experienced Luke Power was the sub!!!  Goodnight!!! The extra 2 players out would mean a 2 – 3 goal change in the tips.  So with the Suns (in hindsight) being tipped by about 5 goals, then they would have also been the Accumulator tip.  Probably not certs, given the extreme variance (after all, it was the Suns’ first win at home).  The suns were a man down late in the game.  It is unlikely either team will win again in 2012.



The Swans with no confidence

Following the Blues and Cats continuing long winning runs against the Tigers and Hawks respectively, we have another long winning streak by the Pies over Sydney (currently 10).  Although Collingwood fell in to win last year up in Sydney.  These games are always at ANZ Stadium and the Swans would prefer the SCG.

The AFL website said that “Didak was slightly proppy at training”, but all indications are that he is fine.  He played well in the 2s last week.

In the main game, Collingwood let a nice lead go and just got there against the Saints.  The Pies had a few sore boys late in the game.

The Swans look the goods in this game, apart from the losing sequence.  There was also a slight hint last week vs Carlton that the Swans had been up for a long time and were ripe for the picking.  But it is more likely due to the Swans being on the road for the 2nd week running!  As such, I am staying with the Swans.  The strong wind forecast may just favour Sydney.

Oh, and Dane Swan’s absence helped the tip as well.

Still, the Pies are a reasonable chance.

Forecast: Possible shower, cool, strong south wind

Maths (in points)

Ability:  Even

Home Ground:  SYD + 12

Current Form:  SYD + 5

Freshness:  COLL + 2

Team Changes:  Even (Swans lose Bolton, remember!)

Pyschological:  COLL + 3

Injuries:  SYD + 1

Total: Swans by 13 points

Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1. 52 (but hard to pick between that and Pies ~ 2.55)

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 13 points but the Pies won by 2.  Analysis was borderline.  Maybe not enough emphasis was given to the long Magpie winning run.  The Pies deserve kudos for a great win under difficult circumstances.  But the Swans (a la Hawks vs Cats and Tigers vs Blues this year) seemed to lack poise under pressure.  For Sydney, it was some shocking kicks at goal and apparent lack of pressure on opponents close to goal.

The pies also lost Thomas early, while Tarrant.  Fortunately, Didak lived up to his VFL form and filled in well for Daisy.



To label the Blues certs or not to, that is the question!!

Everything points to a Blues win here, but the one concern is the coaching tenure of Brett Ratten.  If he is likely to go at year’s end, then this may affect the players (especially after an almost finals’ ending loss).  If this is a typical “coach gone” type loss.

That is the only concern.

The Lions seem to be limping to year’s end, but are likely to come good (somewhat) some time.  Black expected to play a full(er) game this week, which will help.

But the Blues are playing much better and the good “ins” will see them over the line.

The coaching concerns will be ignored for now and the Blues tipped as certs.  If you are on a big winning run of certs, you may wish to omit the Blues from your “certs” tips.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  CARL + 18 POINTS

Home Ground:  CARL + 12

Current Form:  CARL + 11

Freshness:  Even

Team Changes:  CARL + 5

Pyschological:  BRIS + 15

Injuries:  CARL + 4

Total: Blues by 35 points and just certs

Accumulator tip:  CARL ~ 1.20

Post Match Review:  Blues were tipped by 35 points and they won by 36.  Analysis was spot on, but not too hard to predict.  Everything went according to plan.  Maguire was a late withdrawal for the Lions.  The Blues are not flying yet, but did enough to comfortably hold off Brisbane.



7.  HAW V PORT (in Tassie)
The Hawks easily

Twice now in 2012 the Hawks have beaten the Cats in the most of the major stats (bar one, of course).  They were terrible the week after both matches against the Cats in 2009 (a shocker of a year for Hawthorn), but since then they have rebounded well after Cat games.

Expect them to be angry enough to be on the ball this weekend.

The “win after the coach gets sacked” theory is a little overrated.  Port would have to outperform expectations by over 10 goals to be in the picture, so don’t get sucked in to tipping them – no matter how far you are off the lead!!

Lance misses again as many DT + SC players groan. His Coleman chances are diminishing by the week!   Hodge struggled last week second up on a 6 day break, but should be firing pretty well now.

Hawks by plenty!

Forecast: cool and sunny

Maths (in points)

Ability:  HAW + 42 POINTS

Home Ground:  HAW + 12

Current Form:  HAW + 23

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  HAW + 6

Pyschological:  PORT + 7

Injuries:  HAW + 7

Total: Hawks by 83 points

Accumulator tip:  HAW ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 83 points and they won by 72.  Analysis was: see above for the Blues.  Port was expected, as some stage, to show some fight.  They did it at the start (making the game interesting for a while), but the Hawks were always certs for the 4 points.  Roughead was a late withdrawal (a rumour dong the rounds on Friday), and both Rioli and Gibson were injured durng the match.



The Tigers without a worry

Things are gong to the Dogs at the Western Oval.  They can’t take a trick with injuries and now lose Libba as well.  Cooney, Williams and Wood miss again.  No need to dwell on this too long.

Tigers are, belatedly, back in town and the Dogs are too depleted to be much of a chance.  The Dogs had their “let’s show something” match last weekend against North, but it only lasted a half.

Forecast: clearing shower, cool

Maths (in points)

Ability:  RICH + 24 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  RICH + 16

Freshness: Even

Team Changes:  WBD + 1

Pyschological:  RICH + 2

Injuries:  RICH + 20

Total: Tigers by 61 points and certs

Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.16

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 61 points and they won by 70.  Analysis was magnificent.  The experts had this as a 6 goal win to Richmond.  The Dogs weren’t helped by late withdrawal of Griffen (given that they were already missing Cross, Dalhaus, Cooney and Libba from the midfield) but, even so, the Tigers were always going to win this one easily.  They had not beaten the Dogs since 2005 and, as mentioned elsewhere, when a team like this breaks a hoodoo, they often do it with a BIG win!!

Correctly labelled as certs.



The Dons just, maybe

Jake Melksham mentioned “confidence” in a Thursday interview on SEN.  That may be the key to this game.  Did the Dons derive confidence from their (much improved) effort in Adelaide?  Or will it totally flatten them?  This doesn’t help tipsters too much, except that it will be listed as an EXTREME VARIANCE game.

The other thing is the “ins”.   The only genuine query for North is Adams.  But the Dons have Crameri, Fletcher and Hibberd in, with maybe Monfries and Hille, with Lee (very impressive in the 2s) as possible important “ins”.  Missing still will be Ryder and Stanton.

There is just a feeling that the Dons are about to show the world that they deserve a finals spot.

Clearly, the Dons at full strength are better than the Roos.  But the Dons have an injury rating of 21 compared to 8 for North.   Dons will be the tip, but would have gone for North had Ziebell NOT challenged and therefore played this week.  But please go for North if you disagree.  It is a tough one to pick.

Maths (in points)

Ability:  ESS + 12 POINTS

Home Ground:  Even

Current Form:  NMFC + 10

Freshness:  NMFC + 3

Team Changes:  ESS + 7

Pyschological:  NMFC + 1

Injuries:  NMFC + 2

Total: Dons by 3 points

Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 2.30

Post Match Review:  Bombers were tipped by 3 points but the Roos won by 24.  Analysis was not too flash in this instance.  The Roos had a courageous win with a dwindling bench (losing Wells and Adams early, while Grima went off late and Cunnington also had trouble completing the game).   Maybe the Dons confidence is totally shot.  From a technical viewpoint, nailing the missed the shots early in the third may have caused a different result.  Given the Roos’ injuries, any Essendon lead of 2 goals would probably been enough to burst North’s bubble.  Nonetheless, this was a costly tip.  The only thing correct, in my opinion, was the EXTREME VARIANCE call.



Best cert: You don’t have to be Young Einstein to tip the Hawks as the biggest certs of the round; then Tigers, Saints, Crows and Blues (they all won comfortably)

Best Outsider Essendon, then the Giants and Pies (there is no favourite in the Eagles / Cats game).  All the rest no hope. (only Collingwood won and the others were disappointing)

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated): Tigers by over 38 points against the depleted Dogs

(Tigers covered the 38 points easily)

Happy tipping!  This looks to be a good week for the hot favourites.  Picking the winner of the first and last games of the round will be the key this time.