Round 21, 2013

Round 21, 2013

Scores after round 20 for Longggey in Herald Sun Tipping comp.

Tips correct: 6 for a score of 128 (124 real winners + 4 bonus points) and improved from 12,887 to 11,734 out of 66,734 tipsters.

Accumulator: 10.65 (excellent!) for a total of 157.13 and an improved ranking from 2.497 to 1,993 out of 11,800 tipsters

Last Man Standing Comp: Eliminated in R14

NOTE: for those still “alive” in the Sportinbgbet free Last Man Standing comp changed from R13 onwards. Those “alive”, they have to pick the “line”.  These “lines” are subject to change, but you will get the “line” applicable at the time you enter your selection. Streak:  tipped 4 of 4 certs correctly – streak now up to 29 (with Hawks, Cats, Suns and Dockers all winning).  Once again, the tips weren’t hard this week, but the key was to avoid tipping the Blues and Swans (who were both wamr favourites).  By doing this, the ranking improved from 486 to 179 out of 66,781 tipsters

50/50 tips: 1 out of 3 correct for the round
The Cats didn’t win by enough
Likewise for the Suns
But the Dockers easily covered the 76 point line,
so now at 21 out of 46 = 46% for the 50/50 (anything over 50% is good!)

Early thoughts for R21:  There are quite a few certs this week:  Lions (certs of the week), Dockers and Swans.  Those likely to be tipped, without being total certs at this stage will be Hawks, Tigers, Port and Cats.  The Roos are the likely tip, but watch for news on the Dons this week.  The Dogs V Crows match is tough and the vital one for those atop the leader boards.

Games                  Tip / By    Variance       Outsider is:
1 HAW V COLL     HAW  12      EXTREME   a good chance
2 RICH V CARL    RICH  23     HIGH           a tiny chance
3 PORT V SUNS   PORT 29     HIGH           a tiny chance
4 ESS V NMFC      NMFC 16     EXTREME   some chance
5 WCE V GEEL     GEEL 14      HIGH           some chance
6 BRIS V GWS      BRIS 83       HIGH           no hope at all
7 MELB V FREO   FREO 54     HIGH           no hope at all
8 SYD V STK        SYD 72        MEDIUM      no hope at all
9 WBD V ADEL     WBD 2        EXTREME   tipped to win

Variance: differs depending on unknown technical and fundamental issues – like possible injuries and tracking of form trend

Medium means the website is expected to be close to the mark

High means expect some likelihood of the website being several goals off the mark

Extreme means expect a possible wide variation from the website’s predictions



The Hawks, but not overly confident

The big advantage the Pies have is that they finally have a fit and firing midfield.  Ball and Beams have both been back for a while now, and they again have the best midfield group in the league.  In fact, their overall injury list is shrinking to manageable levels.
And the Hawks have been flat for a couple of weeks.  We await their awakening from their slumber.  They are hoping to peak late season and into the finals.  The are not that far ahead that they can afford to drop this one – especially with a tricky R22 match vs the Roos and a trip to Sydney in R23.

But there is one big thing in favour of the Hawks.  They have had breaks of 8, 6 and 7 days after their past 3 games.  This compares to Collingwood’s breaks of 8, 6 and 6 with and interstate trip last week as well.

There is also just a slight feeling that the Collingwood good form of late is a bit too good (for Magpie fans) to be true.  Just a passing thought!!  A big win this week, and the thought will disappear.

The last time the Pies beat Hawthorn was the 2011 prelim when they fell over the line by 3 points.  The theory is that the Hawks match up well against Collingwood (as their last 4 wins of 22, 47, 38 and 55 points would suggest).  But that doesn’t put Hawthorn over the line.  This is a tough game to pick.  The variance is EXTREME, because one team could blow it open one way or t’other, the Pies travel factor and the form of the 3 ins for the Hawks. Hawks just!

Forecast: possible shower, windy

Maths (in points)

Ability: HAW + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   COLL + 7

Team Changes:  HAW + 7

Psychological:    EVEN (but hard to pick)

Freshness:    HAW + 9

Injuries:     COLL + 3

Total:     Hawks by 12 points
Accumulator tip:  COLL ~ 2.70 (just, ahead of Hawks at 1.48, for value)

Post Match Review:  Hawks were tipped by 12 points and they won by 35.  Analysis was reasonable, but maybe the fact that the Hawks had planned for this game for a week or two was underestimated.  And the downside for the Pies on a 6 day break from a big “UP” game against the Swans was underestimated.  This cause the Pies to be tipped in the Accumulator – a costly error.  The other question was the form of the Hawks’ “INS”.  The SC scores were Hodge 130, Franklin 101 and Birchall 106.  With these numbers, the Hawks were always going to win (wisdom in hindsight).



The Tigers again, as they aim for an unlikely top 4 finish

Things went horribly wrong for the Blues last weekend.  They were smashed early (but the Dogs missed a heap of chances to be 5 up at QT), then ran out of players at the end of the game.   
So, if you believe the 1Q last week, the Tigers are certs.  If you excuse the Blues for their injuries, and hope for a better showing 2nd up from Jarrad Waite, then the Blues are some chance.

Either way, the Tigers will be tipped and firmly fancied.  Then are tuning up nicely foe the finals with few injuries.  The only concern about them is their drop-off in intensity late last week – especially given the fact that the Lions were running out of fit players.

The Tigers will be forgiven, because this game was between matches against the Hawks (R19) and Blues (R21).  And they virtually shut the door on the Lions before they eased off.  Expect them to be “up” again this week, more than likely.   While Tiger fan Patti from Reservoir remembers well the 1970s and 1982 grand final, the current players need only to go back to R1 thrashing in recent times to motivate them.

A curio is that, before last week, the Tigers were 3 games clear of the 9th placed Carlton with 3 rounds to go.  Now they are 4 games clear with 3 rounds to go (and therefore mathematical certs).

There is a possibility that this could be a cause for relaxation on the part of the Tigers.  And maybe the Blues might lift, now that they are almost certainly gone!! So the Tigers won’t be named certs.

Maths (in points)

Ability: RICH + 6 POINTS

Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   RICH + 10

Team Changes:  RICH + 4

Psychological:    RICH + 2

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     RICH + 1

Total:     Tigers by 23 points
Accumulator tip:  RICH ~ 1.28 (but Blues at 3.70 is tempting)

Post Match Review:  Tigers were tipped by 23 points but the Blues won by 10.  Analysis was not the best.  Not that the Blues were ever gong to be tipped outright, but the fact that the Tigers’ slump last week was “forgiven” AGAIN caused the wrong Accumulator tip to be made.  The ONLY positive was that the Tigers were not tipped as certs.  A Carlton player mentioned revenge for R1 in a post game interview.  The manner of the loss by Richmond was that of a top side on a long winning run.  Except that their winning run was only 2.  The win over the Hawks probably felt like multiple wins for Richmond.  Anyway, the trend of such teams is to win, but to drop off late in one or 2 games in a row.  Eventually , they throw away a nice lead and lose.  That is exactly what the tigers did this time.  They were 30 points up at QT and still lost.  This sounds like an EXTREME variance game, but the game was labelled as HIGH variance only!



Port to win and play finals

The Suns seemed to have trailed off a bit since beating the Pies.  The long season, combined with the long injury list, may have worked against them.  Nonetheless, they have headed n the right direction as far as season 2013 is concerned.

They rally struggled late last week vs the Dees, but had multiple injuries to contend with.  However, it should also be remembered that the Suns were coming back from Perth, while the Dees were on the road for the 2nd week running.  That makes the real form hard to line up.

Similarly, it is hard to know what to make of Port’s form.  They were 63 points down in 4Q last week, but “stormed home” against Geelong to lose by 25 points.  Likewise, the Cats had injury troubles on the day.  Port did too, but not as severe.

Then there is Gazza.  Jeff Gieschen reckoned he got a raw deal last week, so expect him to fare better this time.  But he still did not look at his brilliant best.  With the Brownlow a possibility, he is not going to be rested unless they consider him no hope to get votes.

Of interest is that Hunt and Risk-A-Telly are emergencies for the Suns.  Both are coming back from injuries.  They are either going to be late inclusions, or perhaps they are quite right to go yet.  Surely the team needs their mature bodies to help them through to the end, especially with Bock and Brown gone!

With all this, there was a temptation to call the variance extreme, but it is realistically just on the edge of HIGH.

Forecast: possible shower, windy

Maths (in points)

Ability: PORT + 6 POINTS

Home Ground: PORT + 18

Current Form:   PORT + 3

Team Changes:  PORT + 3

Psychological:    SUNS + 8

Freshness:    PORT + 3

Injuries:     PORT + 2

Total:     Port by 29 points
Accumulator tip:  PORT ~ 1.20

Post Match Review:  Port tipped by 29 points and they won by 17.  Analysis was okay here, and both tips correct.  And the decision NOT to label Port as certs was correct.  They weren’t that convincing and had to come from 9 points down at 3QT to win.  The game trend was EXTREME variance-esque.  Port went from 24 points up to 10 down and then 22 points up, before winning by 17.  Other than failing to call it an extreme variance game, all was well.



The Roos, but who knows what to expect from the Dons

This is an EXTREME variance game.  So much of it depends of the mindset of the Essendon players.  Will they be frazzled?  Relieved?  Ready to fire on all cylinders?  The more likely thing is that they will be relieved and play better than in recent weeks.  But please don’t trust them to be “cherry ripe”.  It could still go the other way.

One could also question the Roos on similar grounds.  Another close loss last week.  Then, they were blown away early, came storming back in 3Q and looked like winners, but faded late to lose narrowly.

The Bombers look a bit shorter this week (a bit surprising as they are going to be under the roof).  They lave lost Fletcher, Ryder and Gumbleton, while the only tall “in” is Daniher.  Hille remains an emergency.

Hurley is still out injured, while Wright and Ziebell may be under slight injury clouds for North.

The Roos have also formed a 2up 2down pattern, with their last 5 weeks vs expectations showing as -26, -4, 65, 32 & -12.   So you can see that week one is low (-26), climbing up to week 3 which is high at +65, then descending to -12 again in week 5.  This pattern, while not completely reliable, would suggest that the Roos perform worse than -12 this weekend.  Given that they are 17 point favourites, the fulfilment of the technical chart would yield a loss being 95% likely.

North will definitely be tipped, but if you are desperate to catch one up, the Dons are a risky conveyance, but are some hope.

Maths (in points)

Ability: EVEN
Home Ground:  EVEN

Current Form:   NMFC + 20 POINTS

Team Changes:  NMFC  + 3

Psychological:    ESS + 6 (but this is the BIG unknown)

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     ESS + 2

Total:     Roos by 15 points
Accumulator tip:  ESS ~ 2.95

Post Match Review:  Roos were tipped by 15 points and they won by 45.  Analysis was okay, but the Accumulator was wrong.  Maybe the potential upside for Essendon was overrated – especially with their “OUTS”.  And their “INS” scored as follows in SC:  Crameri 45, Daniher 51, Jetta 37 (coming on as sub in 2Q),  O’Brien 34 and new boy “Kenny” Dalgleish the best with 70.  Maybe Crameri (who has a heart as big as a cabbage) might have had an excuse in that he was crunched early.  Overall, that is a terrible return.  To make matters worse for the Dons, they lost Heppell early.  But the Roos had Thompson and Ziebell as late withdrawals, but were far too good.  The Bombers have now underperformed expectations 6 times in a row.  Hird said the effort was better this week.  Maybe now they need to also regain confidence and touch.



The Cats to get there…probably

This weekend, the Docker fans are cheering for the Eagles with all they’ve got (which doesn’t happen very often for some of them). 

And the Eagles do have some chance.  Their injury list has reduced from diabolical to awful.  Kerr has had a knee op and won’t be seen for a while. Rosa and Embley (both among the best in the WAFL last weekend) are named as emergencies.  This suggests a late withdrawal is possible.

The Eagles were terrific in beating the Dons last week, but that form is difficult to line up.  The Pies excelled last week after a similar thrashing of Essendon the week before.  And, as another guide, the Eagles were travelling terribly in 2010 when they beat a struggling Dons in Melbourne late in 2010 (by 32 points then and Le Cras kicked 12).  They followed it up at home the next week with a 26 point loss to Carlton.  This may be a better guide than following the Magpies’ form line.

There are 2 big names that made it certain that the Cats would be tipped: Chapman and Hawkins.  Chappy has had 1 game back for the VFL after not playing since R4.  And Hawkins really needs a rest and had trouble with mobility last week.  To top things off, they were a ruckman short last week (maybe Hawkins was meant to ruck on the forward line) and the inclusion of Blicavs is a plus.  The ruck duels may go a way to decide the result.  Geelong isn’t expected to win them, but a narrow loss in that area will help set up a victory.

The Cats dropped off badly from a 63 point lead to win by only 25 last week.  But they may have run out of fit players, with Duncan off early and other concerns.  It is not assumed to be a sign of a loss coming.

The Cats don’t look totally convincing just yet, but they should be good enough to beat an Eagles team which has performed moderately in WA this season.  The extra day’s break could also assist Geelong.

Forecast:  mainly fine, light breeze, slightly humid

Maths (in points)

Ability: GEEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: WCE + 17

Current Form:   GEEL + 2

Team Changes:  GEEL + 2

Psychological:    GEEL + 12

Freshness:    GEEL + 7

Injuries:     WCE + 4

Total:     Cats by 14 points
Accumulator tip:  GEEL ~ 1.45 (narrowly ahead of Eagles at 2.75)

Post Match Review:  Cats were tipped by 14 points and they won by 66.  Analysis was reasonable in that the correct tips were made, but the Cats played like CERTS.  The Eagles did have a few excuses, however.  They lost Masten before the game, then inclusion Shuey (returning from injury) was subbed out in 3Q after hardly touching the ball.  Cripps had a couple of knocks the previous week and was a bit below average.  Josh Hill had an absolute Darren Crocker.  And all this while the midfield is missing Kerr, Nicnat and Le Cras.  Maybe the fade-out form the Cats in 4Q last week should have been totally ignored!



The Lions are certs!!

While everyone was camped out waiting for news on Essendon, the Lions management pulled a surprise and sacked Michael Voss this week.  Regardless of how the players view this event, there is no way that they should lose this one.

The Giants are on the road for 2 weeks running and coming off a 6 day break from the late game in Perth last week.  Many tipsters may not realise that.  Enough said.  Lions by heaps.   The only danger in them not covering the 10 goal margin expected is a negative reaction among the players to the sacking.

Looking at the technical charts for the Giants: firstly, they are on a 2up 2down pattern with their variance (against expectation) in the last 5 weeks being -54, 29, 46, 32 & -37.  If this chart holds true, expect the Giants to underperform (= a 10 goal loss or worse).

A second technical lead is the Good, Shocker, 3rd week chart.  You will note that 2 weeks ago, their win over the Dees was a +32; then their loss to Freo was a -37.  Lowly teams late in the season tend to have a shocker in the 3rd week – generally around a 5 – 8 goal worse than expected result.  This would put them in the realm of a 100 point loss.

One slight positive for them is that they had the big win after a huge run of losses, then they were (understandably) flat the following week.  On that basis, an improved performance could be expected.  And helping this theory is the inclusion of the experienced Brogan & Gilham.  But the 2nd week on the road will kill off any genuine chance of a win.  Lions by heaps!

Forecast:  Fine, light breeze, low humidity

Maths (in points)

Ability: BRIS + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: BRIS + 18

Current Form:   BRIS + 12

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    BRIS

Freshness:    BRIS + 18

Injuries:     GWS1

Total:     Lions by 83 points AND CERTS!
Accumulator tip:  BRIS ~ 1.02 (generous, was expecting 1.01)

Post Match Review:  Lions were tipped by 83 points and they won by 60.  Analysis was excellent until 3QT; and then the Lions slept!    However, they were correctly tipped as certs.  The Giants actually did well to fight back in 4Q after 2 weeks on the road.   Or maybe the lions put the cue back in the rack after a turbulent week.



The Dockers look pretty safe here

Fremantle have what appears to be 3 easy games coming up.  If they win all 3, there is a chance they can grab a 1 or 2 spot and a home final in week 1.  This should be good enough incentive for them to win.  But they may also need percentage IF they finish on the same number of wins as the Swans (which is possible but somewhat unlikely).

The other thing of interest for the Dockers is playing on the MCG.  This may be their last game there before a possible grand final appearance.  “Pav” needed the run last week and may gradually improve as the finals approach.

One minus for the Dees is that umpires boss Jeff Gieschen said Ablett should have got more frees last week.  He was being tagged by McKenzie.  This may make McKenzie a “much looked at” man by the umpires.

As per the Suns’ write-up above, the Dees’ form is hard to assess.  They were dreadful vs the Roos and Giants, but then were competitive against the Suns last week.  This was their 2nd road trip in a row (a positive that they did so well), but the Suns were coming back from Perth and had several injuries (so maybe the effort wasn’t that great).

Dawes and Jamar are still out, which doesn’t help.

There is a danger for the Dockers this week.  They can “get ahead of themselves” and start looking forward to future games, especially as this game has been marked down as a total cert.  The home ground advantage does give the Dees some chance to be competitive.  While a Melbourne win is highly improbable, there is a temptation to avoid calling the Dockers certs.  This temptation has been noted, but will be avoided.

Freo are 11 goal favourites and it is expected that the Dees are slightly underestimated in this game.  The Dockers are JUST certs, but there is a chance that the Dees may still exceed expectations (like they did vs Swans in R15)

Forecast:  showers, strong wind easing

Maths (in points)

Ability: FREO + 36 POINTS

Home Ground: MELB + 18

Current Form:   FREO + 22

Team Changes:  FREO + 1

Psychological:    FREO + 12

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     FREO + 1

Total:     Dockers by 54 points and CERTS (just)
Accumulator tip:  FREO ~ 1.01

Post Match Review:  Dockers were tipped by 54 points and they won by 95.  Analysis was a fair way off, but the Dees had 2 off the ground before half time, so they really struggled after that.  The Dockers won the first half by 31 points and the last half by 64 points.  While the Dockers also lost 2 players, their 2nd loss was Ballantyne very late in 4Q.  As a guide, twice 31 (lead at HT) is 62, so the original tip wasn’t too bad.  Byrnes was also reported to have a foot injury and only managed 16 SC points.  So they were probably, in effect, an extra 2 men down for the second half.  Regardless of all that, the Dockers were correctly labelled certs.



The Swans by heaps.

Refer above about Freo’s percentage.  The Swans will be going all out to win this one by as much as possible.

The Swans looked devastated last week after their loss to the Pies.  It followed an interesting trend a la Geelong in the 2008 GF and Collingwood in the 2011 GF.  That is the team that was favoured all year was abut level at HT and got blown away in 2H to lose by about 5 goals.  In Sydney’s case, they

Another similar example is Adelaide in 2012.  They were on the crest of a wave, having won 5 in a row.  They played at home against an injury hit Magpie team who turned a 7 point HT lead into a surpise 26 point win.  The Crows rebounded well the next week – beating Freo in Perth by about 5 goals.

Anyway, the Swans were also on a winning run (of 6 wins).  They will bounce back well from this loss.

One reason for the Swans losing last week was that they have had to wait too long to get key players (Shaw, Rohan, Jetta, Goodes, Roberts-Thompson and Reid) back.  There may be small doubts on Tippett and McGlynn.

And who better to play when you want to be sure of a win than the Saints.  St Kilda is one team with a worse injury list than the Swans.   They apparently brought Gwilt back too early last week.  Now he is out and Gilbert comes back in after not playing since R6.  Ideally, he would have a run in the VFL first, but so many defenders are out that he has to step up.  The 9 day break from last Friday night is, perhaps, a bit too long.

The Swans  also have 2 weeks in a row at home (which will help) and they are HUGE CERTS!!!

Forecast: sunny, light breeze

Maths (in points)

Ability: SYD + 24 POINTS

Home Ground: SYD + 15

Current Form:   SYD + 9

Team Changes:   EVEN

Psychological:    SYD + 14

Freshness:    SYD + 6

Injuries:     SYD + 4

Total:     Swans by 72 points and CERTS OF THE WEEK
Accumulator tip:  SYD ~ 1.02 (great value)

Post Match Review:  Swans were tipped by 72 points and they won by 59.  Analysis was reasonable.  The Swans looked surprisingly sluggish early, as though percentage not matter.  But maybe that was not giving enough credit to the Saints.  McEvoy was surprisingly quiet and was subbed off after scoring only 19SC points.  His name did not appear in the injury report.  Tippett was also subbed out, but with hammie tightness.



The Dogs, but this is an EXTREME variance game

The last game of the weekend is the hardest to pick AND is the most difficult.  The Dogs have definitely improved, but have had a few things go their own way.  Their recent upset wins were against the injury-plagued Eagles and Blues.  But in both games they totally dominated for periods without being able to put the advantage on the scoreboard.  Last weekend, in 1Q vs the Blues they kicked 2:6 to 2:1 BEFORE the Blues had injuries, but also kicked a few out on the full.  They should have been 5 goals in front at QT instead of a few points.

The end result may come down to how efficient the Dogs are when they have their chances.  They are definitely finishing off the season well.  Helping their cause of late is good form from Cooney (best block of good form in years), Libba, Grant (surprisingly) and Murphy is back to his best.

The Crows have been much better since their bye, but never totally convincing.   Their biggest improver since the bye has been Henderson in defence.  He averaged 65 SC points before the bye and 105 points thereafter.  He took a few telling marks in some tight games to help get the Crows over the line recently.   He is now out with injury.

The Crows seemed to have a big build-up for the Roos match as a result of being overrun late by Port the previous week.  There is a chance that they may be slightly flat now.  Match this flatness against the likelihood of a downer by the Dogs after overrunning an injured Carlton; then throw in the home ground advantage – and HEY POSTER (as Mal Prop would say), you have the winner.

And the winner is the Dogs (just, with little confidence and EXTREME variance).

Maths (in points)

Ability: ADEL + 12 POINTS

Home Ground: WBD + 15

Current Form:   ADEL + 1

Team Changes:  WBD + 6

Psychological:    ADEL + 5

Freshness:     EVEN

Injuries:     ADEL + 1

Total:     Dogs by 2 points
Accumulator tip:  WBD ~ 2.15 (good value)

Post Match Review:  Dogs were tipped by 2 points and they won by 17.  Analysis was pretty good here.  But when you tip a team by 2 points, you are one small step away from a tipping error.  It is always positive when you tip an outsider (however slight the outsider is) and they win.  It gives you a winner and, usually, a good score in the Accumulator.  The Extreme variance call was also correct.  The Dogs went from 3 goals up to almost 4 goals down and then 4 goals up before running out 17 point winners. In the middle of all this, the losers actually booted 6 unanswered goals.  Why the Crows stopped late as if shot (after appearing to be the ones full of running early in 3Q) is a bit of a mystery.  Did the big game against the Roos, or the one day less break, tire them out?  Rory Sloans came back from superhuman SC figures (180 last week) to score 102 this time.  And Grigg was a late withdrawal for the Crows – not that this change would have had a great influence on the tip anyway.  The Dogs are playing like a V8 with dodgy fuel.  When they splutter, they look shocking.  But they can also take off at great speed.  Tis game was a shoot-out with a combined score of 251, well ahead of the next highest for the round (209 for Port vs Suns).





Best cert: Swans, Lions and Dockers (correct for all three and none of them ever in doubt)

Best Outsider: The Dogs are the best outsiders (correct, after some nervous periods), while the Pies (never looked likely) and Dons (poor again) have some chance

Best 50/50 (a segment which picks the game which the experts have wrongly rated)
Lions to win by over 62 points (missed it by THAT MUCH)
Swans to win by over 64 points (missed it by THAT MUCH)

For those still alive in the Last Man Standing, the lines are approx

Hawks 13.5

Tigers 21.5

Port 28.5
Roos 17.5

Cats 12.5

Lions 59.5

Dockers 66.5
Swans 61.5

Crows 5.5
The recommendations is to go for the Lions
(correct JUST) or Swans (just missed)

Happy tipping!  This is not a week where you should expect some huge wins and an upset or 2. (and there were 2!)