Round 21, 2014 Penny

Technical Analysis prior to R21, 2014

By Penny Dredfell

Added 12 Aug 2014

While fundamental analysis (used by most media tipsters) takes into account the ability of the two competing teams, the home ground advantage, injuries, team changes etc, technical analysis looks for trends and patterns which explain the otherwise inexplicable.

Reviewing last week (R19): it was quite satisfying to label the Crows as big certs and then see them win big.  But I was expecting a 6 – 10 goal win maximum.  Note that young teams like Brisbane can capitulate big time now and then.  The addendum on 06 Aug yielded mixed results

But round 21 awaits!  The game in focus is Essendon vs the West Coast Eagles, in which the Dons are slight favourites only.

The Bombers – by losing last week – come under the Friday Night Shocker (FNS) pattern.  When a team has a bad loss on a Friday night (and this wasn’t horrible, but it was bad enough to qualify), then everyone feasts out on them for about 15 hours until game 2 begins.

And there was plenty of chat about the Bombers last Saturday.  Bomber Thompson had his team locked away for a long period after the game.  The last time this happened was after the loss to Melbourne. The week after losing to the Dees, they pulled off a minor upset in beating Adelaide.

The Eagles put aside awful form with a big upset win over the Crows away and then a demolition job on the Pies at home.  Is it a momentary blip or a genuine return to the form many expected from the Eagles?  It will be assessed as slightly closer to a momentary blip – given their injuries.

They may have caught the Crows at a good time.  And the venom in the win by Adelaide following their loss to the Eagles suggests that the loss may have been caused more by Adelaide having a shocker more so than the Eagles’ brilliance.

The Eagles walloped Collingwood.  The Pies had underperformed (similarly to the Eagles) for 6 weeks before defeating Port.  But some Port players were rumoured to have had the flu that day.  If not, the Pies might be now sitting on 8 under-performances in a row. With their injuries and underdone players, the Pies were ripe for the picking.

Back to the FNS analysis:  teams can usually excel the week following a FNS, with some noted exceptions.  Ironically, Essendon has been the worst offender in this regard in recent years.  They have been horribly mauled after some FNS’s.  But that was because their confidence was shot.


It doesn’t appear to be so this time. When the FNS team gets an 8 day break against a team with a 6 day break (as is the case here), the technical chart works best. Expect the Dons to win by more than the 10 points as assessed by the experts.